Pakistan's Arya Stark
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http://pakistanpolitico.com/sb5/ Anum A. Khan weighs in on Pakistan China Inda: Collision vs Collusion?
The global strategic competition will shape future conflicts where India-China-Pakistan security calculus will not be seen in isolation from the U.S., resulting in India-China-Pakistan-U.S. Nuclear Ouadrangle. Notwithstanding India being a net security provider in the Asia-Pacific, the U.S. or the Quad will not come into direct confrontation with China in a Sino-Indian crisis. Hence, the quadrilateral alliance will not help India. As Galwan stand-off has shown, China will hold escalation dominance vis-à-vis India in any future border stand-off the duo might have. The context however, may change if the U.S. decides to station its troops on the Indian territory under COMCASA, BECA, and LEMOA.
China has higher stakes in any Indo-Pak conflict in the future due to CPEC and will continue to support Pakistan. While it is certain that Pakistan will not become a party to conflict between India and China, it will continue to guard its security interests through measured and restrained responses to full spectrum of threats emerging from India in the form of hybrid warfare.
Indian territorial expansionist nationalism under BJP's Moditva regime will be the driving force of India's foreign policy in years to come. And in order for it to achieve its expansionist agenda, it needs modern weapons, and for that it needs to raise the bogey of the Chinese threat time and again. Pakistan on the other hand, weighs heavy on Indian threat perceptions even though New Delhi does not like to acknowledge it. The fact that all three Indian strike corps as well as different nuclear missiles are all designed to meet India's Pakistan threat, it is China that helps bring in big-ticket weapons that Pakistan does not.
Indian modernization plans of MIRVing. canistrization of missiles, acquisiton of BMD, ASAT capability, nuclearization of IOR, technological transfers, a dozen nuclear deals of India with the West including shift in Indias nuclear doctrine from NFU are detrimental to regional strategic stability.
The global strategic competition will shape future conflicts where India-China-Pakistan security calculus will not be seen in isolation from the U.S., resulting in India-China-Pakistan-U.S. Nuclear Ouadrangle. Notwithstanding India being a net security provider in the Asia-Pacific, the U.S. or the Quad will not come into direct confrontation with China in a Sino-Indian crisis. Hence, the quadrilateral alliance will not help India. As Galwan stand-off has shown, China will hold escalation dominance vis-à-vis India in any future border stand-off the duo might have. The context however, may change if the U.S. decides to station its troops on the Indian territory under COMCASA, BECA, and LEMOA.
China has higher stakes in any Indo-Pak conflict in the future due to CPEC and will continue to support Pakistan. While it is certain that Pakistan will not become a party to conflict between India and China, it will continue to guard its security interests through measured and restrained responses to full spectrum of threats emerging from India in the form of hybrid warfare.
Indian territorial expansionist nationalism under BJP's Moditva regime will be the driving force of India's foreign policy in years to come. And in order for it to achieve its expansionist agenda, it needs modern weapons, and for that it needs to raise the bogey of the Chinese threat time and again. Pakistan on the other hand, weighs heavy on Indian threat perceptions even though New Delhi does not like to acknowledge it. The fact that all three Indian strike corps as well as different nuclear missiles are all designed to meet India's Pakistan threat, it is China that helps bring in big-ticket weapons that Pakistan does not.
Indian modernization plans of MIRVing. canistrization of missiles, acquisiton of BMD, ASAT capability, nuclearization of IOR, technological transfers, a dozen nuclear deals of India with the West including shift in Indias nuclear doctrine from NFU are detrimental to regional strategic stability.
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