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"India cannot win a two-front war", Ajai Shukla

Shane

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The Diplomat’s Franz-Stefan Gady talks to Ajai Shukla, one of India’s leading defense analysts and reporters, about the current state and future trajectory of the Indian Armed Forces. Shukla is a former officer of the Indian Army, where he held various positions including commanding one of the service’s most elite tank regiments:

 
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If there is China - India war, then obviously India cannot win against China alone and if Pakistan joins the action it would be very hard to defend against China.

On the contrary if its Pakistan - India war and China opens up few frontier in support to Pakistan, then it would make things complex but wont make much difficult for India to push back Pakistan efforts where by pushing out china towards neutralization without escalating to world war.

India has massive defence setup, but its size is also its biggest problem, larger you are its more difficult to manage, control, direct and move. This would open up many cracks if case of two front war and would make attackers gain easy leads. On top of that technology stack compromises of bullock carts to spaceships making is most complex structure to work efficiently. its more like connected jugaad working up for the situation.
 
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This is a well known fact if but he gets a bit more honest and courageous, he will admit that Gangadesh cannot win a single front war with Pakistan. Out of 1.4 million, 0.9 million of the Gangu Terrorist Army (GTA) are locked in IoJ&K against unarmed Kashmiris. So rest 0.5 million terrorists can be taken care of by, at max, 100,000 of PA brave soldiers.
 
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At the end of my own two cents, you will find part of the most relevant part of the interview regarding two front war. Common fellows, bravado aside, do some reading, I've tried and highlighted the important points, it helps to build possible profiles of your enemy's mindsets, preparedness, weaknesses and thinking.

To me, this current Kashmir crises has been looked at by our Military and Civil Leadership in all the wrong way. It is not a threat but an opportunity. Pakistan must take the recent turn of events as a military opportunity to force India into the corner by threatening a two and a half front war.

Remember, You are as strong as you think you are and appear to the enemy and just as weak too. Its all about positive and aggressive posturing, which sadly, seems to be missing from our military and civil leadership side at the moment.

@Mangus Ortus Novem @PakSword @Signalian @The Eagle @waz @Dubious @Path-Finder @Arsalan

After the hoopla of UN Security Council is over, their is going to be a diplomatic lull... followed by internal political upheaval and otherwise a general sense of disappointment and nose diving morale of the nation already battered by economic hardship due to inaction of the world on Kashmir issue but its outfall on GOP's inaction on diplomatic and military front. Remember IK promised the Kashmiris that they should wait for him to return from UN before marching towards LOC? the consequence of "I did my best diplomatically" will be politically disastrous.

Pakistan should have been persuading China, planning and conducting a simultaneous, Air, Sea and Land military exercise with China. Both countries doing their own exercises on their own sides with participation of observer units on both sides. This can all be easily arranged by projecting the usual exercises and maneuvering as something sinister like two front War exercise, no extra spending but all the benefits due to propaganda of simultaneous exercises.

India has to lift the curfew in the near future... The Gorilla war option by training and supplying Kashimiri freedom fighters will do the job of putting more pressure on India... Economic pressure that is...this will surely mean that the already nose diving Indian Economy will go into recession. Investors will see the militarily volatile situation as a red flag and hold on to their investment. It will be a recipe of disaster for India to continue the status quo.

IF Russia can be defeated in Afghanistan by the resolve of Afghans, what is India in front of the will of the Kashmiri People willing to fight for their freedom. We have to try, we cannot just sit, wait and watch.




Now read why India is afraid of a two and a half front war:

Q)Are operational requirements for the military shifting? For example, the Indian military has been planning for a two-front war with both China and Pakistan. Do you think this is a realistic scenario or should resources be shifted to meet other possible requirements in the near future?

A)A two-front war with China and Pakistan is a worst-case circumstance that would arise only from a simultaneous failure of Indian strategy and international diplomacy. Militaries cannot be structured, particularly for countries with limited means, on the worst possible eventuality; rather, they must cater for the most likely ones. However, Indian military planners routinely raise the bogey of a two-front war, throwing in another “internal security half-front” comprising of Kashmiri militants disrupting lines of communications in the interior.

It is not unusual for militaries to conjure up scare scenarios to bolster their annual bids for budget and resources. However, in India, where the bogey of a two-front war is not rigorously questioned, this has created an acceptance of shortfalls. The IAF’s current strength of 30 squadrons is accepted even though 42 fighter squadrons are assessed as the minimum needed for a two-front war. The navy’s Maritime Capability Perspective Plan – 2012-2027 envisions a force of 200 warships and 500 aircraft to control its Indian Ocean demesne in the face of encroachments from Pakistan and China. However the navy currently operates just 140 warships and 220 aircraft.

Until about a decade ago, the army’s eastern command, which safeguards much of the border with China, had seven divisions under command. In the event of hostilities with China, plans existed for three-to-four “dual task divisions” to be moved from the Indo-Pakistan border to the eastern command. Over the last decade, however, citing the possibility of a two-front war, the army argued that inter-theater reinforcement would not be possible. To make the eastern theatre self-contained, the army pitched for, and was sanctioned, four new divisions, including two that would be part of a new “mountain strike corps.” This shortsightedness swelled an already bloated army by 100,000 more soldiers, leaving less for equipment modernization. India cannot win a two-front war and should not plan for one. Preventing such an eventuality should be a key aim of Indian diplomacy and global strategy.
 
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This is a well known fact but he gets a bit more honest and courageous, he will admit that Gangadesh cannot win a single front war with Pakistan. Out of 1.4 million, 0.9 million of the Gangu Terrorist Army (GTA) are locked in IoJ&K against unarmed Kashmiris. So rest of 0.5 million terrorists can be taken care of by at max 100,000 of PA brave soldiers.
Did USA have 12 million soldiers in 1939? But that many soldiers participated in WW2. Similarly, India can mobilise its people.

Secondly, 2 front war is with Pakistan and Bangladesh. It is foolish to assume that India and China war will break out in support of Pakistan!

India-China are almost equally populous and the war can be brutal and unnecessarily drag without end. The barrier of Tibet & Himalaya prevent full scale warfare too as crossing Himalaya is almost impossible. The small gaps and passes in Ladakh and Arunachal pradesh are not much significant in terms of population or resources to matter much.

So, Indian scenario of war is Pakistan + Bangladesh + Indian Muslims which is 2.5 fronts.
 
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The Diplomat’s Franz-Stefan Gady talks to Ajai Shukla, one of India’s leading defense analysts and reporters, about the current state and future trajectory of the Indian Armed Forces. Shukla is a former officer of the Indian Army, where he held various positions including commanding one of the service’s most elite tank regiments:

It is interesting many have questioned if Pakistan will be able to bear it but not a soul had the guts to question if india can sustain it?

Did USA have 12 million soldiers in 1939? But that many soldiers participated in WW2. Similarly, India can mobilise its people.
india is no where near USA, I doubt you can compare it!

Pakistan cannot win on a three front war -

  • Pak West '71
  • Bangla Mukhtos '71
  • India East '71
Please stick to the topic which is about INDIA capable of winning or not?!
 
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