India can be $8 trillion economy in less than 15 yrs: Panagariya

[kaykay]

Under modi it is not possible

And reason being?

 

[farhan_9909]

And reason being?

Because under him indian youth is getting extremist

he's the Zia ul haq of india

 

[kaykay]

Because under him indian youth is getting extremist

he's the Zia ul haq of india

Now thats decisional. Gujarat where he ruled for 13 years is one of the most peaceful place to live in current India.

Typo: Delusional.

 

[HariPrasad]

Make that 15 years.

no just wait for 1 year. you will agree with me.

 

[Skull and Bones]

no just wait for 1 year. you will agree with me.

I'm always skeptic. But if the river linking project goes through, and GoI approves freight corridor and drops that stupid HSR, then I'll be optimistic.

 

[India defense]

Because under him indian youth is getting extremist

he's the Zia ul haq of india

ha ha ...nice joke...

 

[itachiii]

Because under him indian youth is getting extremist

he's the Zia ul haq of india

Hindus are no muslims and hinduism is no islam.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Because under him indian youth is getting extremist

he's the Zia ul haq of india

Do you see anyone in India roaming in the marketplace with an assault rifle? If not, then it's probably too early to pass on a judgement.

 

[VeeraBahadur]

Since Indian GPD is doubling every 7 years, this is hardly any news.

Even at 8% it will take 9 years to double. May be GST add percent or two then we can double in 8 years at 10% . No chance of doubling up in 7 years.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Even at 8% it will take 9 years to double. May be GST add percent or two then we can double in 8 years at 10% . No chance of doubling up in 7 years.

GDP Growth is calculated as (real growth+inflation+currency appreciation). When India hit 1 trillion in 2007, 1 USD= Rs 41, and when we hit 2 trillion in 2014, 1 USD= Rs 64.

So Indian domestic growth is downplayed because of the depreciation of the currency, I hope you got the answer.

 

[dray]

View attachment 238628

this is just a generic table gives us the likely scenario.

I didn't consider those factor while calculating these figures. I just take 2300 billion $ economy base and calculated the compound figure of 15 years.

GDP growth calculations don't work like that. Check @Skull and Bones 's post above. Or try to solve the Chinese GDP growth calculation using compound interest calculator, you will understand.

Chinese GDP:
2014: USD 10.361 billion
2005: USD 2.269 billion

And GDP growth rates in 10 years (starting from 2005 to 2014):

11.4 - 12.7 - 14.2 - 9.6 - 9.2 - 10.6 - 9.5 - 7.8 - 7.7 - 7.4

Let me know the result.

(Data from world bank website)

 

[VeeraBahadur]

GDP Growth is calculated as (real growth+inflation+currency appreciation). When India hit 1 trillion in 2007, 1 USD= Rs 41, and when we hit 2 trillion in 2014, 1 USD= Rs 64.

So Indian domestic growth is downplayed because of the depreciation of the currency, I hope you got the answer.

Yes recently Government did move the base ahead by few years which caused % or two addition in our GDP growth.

But we are not talking about nominal GDP growth. Are we ?? In terms of $$ , which is international benchmark, our domestic inflation doesn't count in.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Yes recently Government did move the base ahead by few years which caused % or two addition in our GDP growth.

But we are not talking about nominal GDP growth. Are we ?? In terms of $$ , which is international benchmark, our domestic inflation doesn't count in.

By moving the base year, Government accounts for the industries and business that generates revenue into the economic calculations, along with various other nitty grities i do not know, because I'm not a finance guy. For example, while calculating Indian GDP in the 80s, IT was downplayed as that was a sector without any significant share in the economy. I might be wrong in explaining it, somebody correct me please.

Even with nominal GDP growth, inflation will be accounted, because a product which cost $100 in previous year, will cost $109 in the present year, with 9 % inflation, so if the revenue was 100 in previous year, it will be 109, with 9% growth without considering any nominal growth and neglecting currency value change.

 

[VeeraBahadur]

GDP growth calculations don't work like that. Check @Skull and Bones 's post above. Or try to solve the Chinese GDP growth calculation using compound interest calculator, you will understand.

Chinese GDP:
2014: USD 10.361 billion
2005: USD 2.269 billion

And GDP growth rates in 10 years (starting from 2005 to 2014):

11.4 - 12.7 - 14.2 - 9.6 - 9.2 - 10.6 - 9.5 - 7.8 - 7.7 - 7.4

Let me know the result.

(Data from world bank website)

So we are only 10 year behind China on economic growth curve. I used to think we are 20 years behind them.

 

[Skull and Bones]

So we are only 10 year behind China on economic growth curve. I used to think we are 20 years behind them.

10 years, considering they stop growing totally, which is highly unlikely, or a runaway inflation which depreciates their currency.

Now, considering a conservative sustained growth rate of 7.5-8%, and inflation of 5%, and a steady currency appreciation of 2.5% per annum, our economy can be around 10 trillion in 10 years.