India can be $8 trillion economy in less than 15 yrs: Panagariya

[Echo_419]

I'm always skeptic. But if the river linking project goes through, and GoI approves freight corridor and drops that stupid HSR, then I'll be optimistic.

Finally koi toh mila job HSR koh support nahi karta

10 years, considering they stop growing totally, which is highly unlikely, or a runaway inflation which depreciates their currency.

Now, considering a conservative sustained growth rate of 7.5-8%, and inflation of 5%, and a steady currency appreciation of 2.5% per annum, our economy can be around 10 trillion in 10 years.

That's a highly optimistic target

 

[Skull and Bones]

Finally koi toh mila job HSR koh support nahi karta

I will think about HSR only after a decade, I will put emphasis on reactivating the regional air strips to connect small cities and towns. And more emphasis should be given on freight corridor. And I support a freight and railway connectivity from India to Vietnam/Indonesia.

That's a highly optimistic target

I never said it's easily achievable, managing inflation with currency appreciation is always a tough task. But not impossible. RBI should tighten up their belts.

 

[VeeraBahadur]

10 years, considering they stop growing totally, which is highly unlikely, or a runaway inflation which depreciates their currency.

Now, considering a conservative sustained growth rate of 7.5-8%, and inflation of 5%, and a steady currency appreciation of 2.5% per annum, our economy can be around 10 trillion in 10 years.

Yes , I know that they won't stop growing but a saturation stage will comes.May be our government try to reduce this gap by couple of years. But their 2007-08 growth was just phenomenal. They added 1 Billion $$ just in one year at 14 % growth. That would be hard to replicate for India.From 3.5 to 4.5 boom, just in a year.

 

[Echo_419]

I will think about HSR only after a decade, I will put emphasis on reactivating the regional air strips to connect small cities and towns. And more emphasis should be given on freight corridor. And I support a freight and railway connectivity from India to Vietnam/Indonesia.



I never said it's easily achievable, managing inflation with currency appreciation is always a tough task. But not impossible. RBI should tighten up their belts.

Exactly HSR should be given a thought only after 2020 before that we should focus on improving the existing infra like building more freight corridors & electrification of the whole network

 

[UKBengali]

Very realistic target by 2030.

I expect China to be the world leader, US 2nd and India 3rd by then.

 

[Echo_419]

Yes , I know that they won't stop growing but a saturation stage will comes.May be our government try to reduce this gap by couple of years. But there 2007-08 growth was just phenomenal. They added 1 Billion $$ just in one year at 14 % growth. That would be hard to replicate for India.From 3.5 to 4.5 boom, just in a year.

As @Skull and Bones rightly pointed out the target is achievable

 

[VeeraBahadur]

May oil glut go on till we develope infra.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Exactly HSR should be given a thought only after 2020 before that we should focus on improving the existing infra like building more freight corridors & electrification of the whole network

You should improve the conditions of our road, so that I can finally think about buying that sports car in India, if I go back.

Yes , I know that they won't stop growing but a saturation stage will comes.May be our government try to reduce this gap by couple of years. But their 2007-08 growth was just phenomenal. They added 1 Billion $$ just in one year at 14 % growth. That would be hard to replicate for India.From 3.5 to 4.5 boom, just in a year.

More than 30% of their growth came from currency appreciation, in 2007, their currency was at $1=8.1 yuan, in 2014, it's $1=6.1, while maintaining an average inflation between 2-5%.

 

[dray]

So we are only 10 year behind China on economic growth curve. I used to think we are 20 years behind them.

Yes, more or less 10 years. And even if we don't grow at China's pace, still we should be at $8 billion in 10 years. In fact we can do $10 billion also considering that our currency has heavily depreciated in last 3-4 years and it will go up with improving economy.

 

[dray]

That's a highly optimistic target

Optimistic, but not impossible.

 

[Turingsage]

Stop wan-king over $8 trillion and spend some time actually working for the here and now. It is very stupid to make such fictional predictions based on ropey data and and even more fancy assumptions. Work hard with a clear mind not swayed about becoming some Bollywood star and sleeping with all those swaying hips

 

[Luca1]

Very realistic target by 2030.

I expect China to be the world leader, US 2nd and India 3rd by then.

No no no.. India first. India second and India last. Everyone in the world will be Hindu Indian by 2030... This thread has being supersede by making world Hindu by 2030.

 

[dray]

No no no.. India first. India second and India last. Everyone in the world will be Hindu Indian by 2030... This thread has being supersede by making world Hindu by 2030.

Mental asylums should stop providing internet access to its patients for the sake of humanity.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Yes, more or less 10 years. And even if we don't grow at China's pace, still we should be at $8 billion in 10 years. In fact we can do $10 billion also considering that our currency has heavily depreciated in last 3-4 years and it will go up with improving economy.

That is why I'm a strong proponent of a huge currency reserve, it not only acts as a cushion against international economic turmoil, but also let you manipulate your currency.

Mental asylums should stop providing internet access to its patients for the sake of humanity.

I never saw her contributing positively in any other thread, or any other section other than Indian.

 

[dray]

I never saw her contributing positively in any other thread, or any other section other than Indian.

It's @faithfulguy 's 2nd id, and 90% of Chinese posters here are pure trolls, 9.9% are trolls who sometimes don't troll, and rest of them are serious members.