India and NSG-News, Updates and Discussions.

[Joe Shearer]

Good Post. Specially about the relevance of your 3 trillion dollar reserves in trade wars.

Indian Posters - Keep your calm. Don't give into baits. Let me give a quasi realistic picture =

China right now will eat India alive in a trade war. They will outbid us in each and every off shore contracts like purchasing oil fields, non IT exports and major E&C contracts. They have capability to put a run on rupee. They can impose serious inflation in India by cutting supply.

All this will come at a cost to China - but a cost they can afford considering they will be finishing off the India story at their terms.

Does this mean we throw in the towel or embark on a glorious but ultimately suicidal charge on China? No. Here is what I think we should do -

LEARN FROM CHINA

1. Engage China and make them a partner in Indian growth story:

Chinese companies are very interested in India as a growth engine. Alibaba and countless other firms are ready to invest in India - an amount which will dwarf Japanese and American investments. Their E&C firms are ready to provide lucrative financing options. Their capital goods manufactures already provide best in class Trade Credits.

More China gets into India, further it will become a stakeholder in Indian prosperity and work in alliance with Indian interests. You win the war by co-opting the enemy

2. Be a coward

India cannot confront China on territorial and geo-political issues alone and hope to come out ahead. This is a an UNDENIABLE FACT. So confront China as a part of a bloc from the rearguard. Let the Americans and Japanese take the body blows and be ready to feast on the left-overs.

The mistake this time made in NSG is that India took the front seat while in '08 USA was running the show. India for all it's cumulative power is a rookie when it comes to power posturing. It also doesn't have the leverages, a country like US acquires throughout decades of wheeling and dealing. We will get there but this was too soon. So you see what happened - We got back-stabbed by the Swiss and the Brazilians, Russians gave us their support but refused to lobby on our behalf, US made half -hearted attempts as it suits them to make India loose and drive India further into their camp.

We should have either negotiated a stronger commitment from US where it would have threatened dire consequences to China or we should have dealth with China directly by offering them concrete benefits such as Bullet Train contracts, Preferential trade terms and Reactor deals as @Chinese-Dragon suggested

3. [B]Break Rules
[/B]
Sign the goddamn NPT and then renege on it. China signed it and is a member of NSG but does it give two hoots for it? No! It breaks them with impunity. We bit the bullet and did the nuclear tests - did the sky fall? No! After couple of years of mild pain, we were back in business. Now we are in a even more favorable situation. Only currency in this world is commerce, rest is all BS. As they say in India "Paisa Phek, Tamasha Dekh" crude translation "Throw money to make other dance to your tunes"

Regards

[USER=37361]@MilSpec @Joe Shearer[/USER]

Great analysis. That's the way to go. Meanwhile continue to grow our Air and Sea joint commands and keep our own hold on the two Indian Ocean choke points.

 

[Echo_419]

Do it!
Can't wait

I am not in the government & have no interest in reducing our trade with China. I was merely educating you that we don't import anything important from you

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

hmm, good question.
What can India offer?

From the Indian media it seems that Modi offered to let China build a few nuclear reactors in India, as well as letting us build some Industrial parks.

But apparently the terms were not good enough. It's a good start though, and NSG membership is pointless anyway.

 

[Mufflerman]

Good Post. Specially about the relevance of your 3 trillion dollar reserves in trade wars.

Indian Posters - Keep your calm. Don't give into baits. Let me give a quasi realistic picture =

China right now will eat India alive in a trade war. They will outbid us in each and every off shore contracts like purchasing oil fields, non IT exports and major E&C contracts. They have capability to put a run on rupee. They can impose serious inflation in India by cutting supply.

All this will come at a cost to China - but a cost they can afford considering they will be finishing off the India story at their terms.

Does this mean we throw in the towel or embark on a glorious but ultimately suicidal charge on China? No. Here is what I think we should do -

LEARN FROM CHINA

1. Engage China and make them a partner in Indian growth story:

Chinese companies are very interested in India as a growth engine. Alibaba and countless other firms are ready to invest in India - an amount which will dwarf Japanese and American investments. Their E&C firms are ready to provide lucrative financing options. Their capital goods manufactures already provide best in class Trade Credits.

More China gets into India, further it will become a stakeholder in Indian prosperity and work in alliance with Indian interests. You win the war by co-opting the enemy

2. Be a coward

India cannot confront China on territorial and geo-political issues alone and hope to come out ahead. This is a an UNDENIABLE FACT. So confront China as a part of a bloc from the rearguard. Let the Americans and Japanese take the body blows and be ready to feast on the left-overs.

The mistake this time made in NSG is that India took the front seat while in '08 USA was running the show. India for all it's cumulative power is a rookie when it comes to power posturing. It also doesn't have the leverages, a country like US acquires throughout decades of wheeling and dealing. We will get there but this was too soon. So you see what happened - We got back-stabbed by the Swiss and the Brazilians, Russians gave us their support but refused to lobby on our behalf, US made half -hearted attempts as it suits them to make India loose and drive India further into their camp.

We should have either negotiated a stronger commitment from US where it would have threatened dire consequences to China or we should have dealth with China directly by offering them concrete benefits such as Bullet Train contracts, Preferential trade terms and Reactor deals as @Chinese-Dragon suggested

3. [B]Break Rules
[/B]
Sign the goddamn NPT and then renege on it. China signed it and is a member of NSG but does it give two hoots for it? No! It breaks them with impunity. We bit the bullet and did the nuclear tests - did the sky fall? No! After couple of years of mild pain, we were back in business. Now we are in a even more favorable situation. Only currency in this world is commerce, rest is all BS. As they say in India "Paisa Phek, Tamasha Dekh" crude translation "Throw money to make others dance to your tunes"

Regards

[USER=37361]@MilSpec @Joe Shearer[/USER]

It will take way too long to educate you so I won't even try.

 

[AndrewJin]

From the Indian media it seems that Modi offered to let China build a few nuclear reactors in India, as well as letting us build some Industrial parks.

But apparently the terms were not good enough. It's a good start though, and NSG membership is pointless anyway.

Hmm
Central Asia
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

I am not in the government & have no interest in reducing our trade with China. I was merely educating you that we don't import anything important from you

Just do it.
Do it from daily life, stop buying make-in-india

 

[Irfan Baloch]

India's NSG seat and UNSC seat are still available...

IF they come to the table for an honest negotiation.

------------------------------

Let's be frank, China and India are NOT friends. We all know this.

Yet whenever India needs something (NSG/UNSC), they suddenly pretend that they are our friends, and ask for "free favours", like in the case of the NSG.

these pretend friends are touting themselves to Americans as their willing henchmen to confront China and thus getting Military and non- military favours in the promise that they will stall china.
the best they have achieved is had some Chinese citizens killed inside Pakistan through their terrorist Proxies like BLA and BRA

 

[Spectre]

Great analysis. That's the way to go. Meanwhile continue to grow our Air and Sea joint commands and keep our own hold on the two Indian Ocean choke points.

We Indian's still suffer from the British wounds which left us with an herculean chip on the shoulders. Instead of building on our successes and letting others approach us, we look towards getting entry into "clubs" which offer no concrete benefits except for a ego boost.

Modi made a mistake here, gave in too much for too little and that is still not a crime. Crime was that he "Lost". In such high stakes game, you play to win or you sit one out. World is just too cruel to failures.

It also dealt a big blow to Indian credibility. How can India promise favors at international geo-politics to other minnow nations when it cannot even pull it's own weight.

"It is better to be quiet and let other's think you are a fool then to open your mouth and remove all doubt"

 

[Makarena]

Putin is heading to China to talk about deepening the relationship between both countries. Now they probably have a lot to joke about Modi.

Putin: did you see Modi's face when the announcement came?
Xi: yeah, well play my friend, the old man didn't even see it coming

 

[Joe Shearer]

We Indian's still suffer from the British wounds which left us with an herculean chip on the shoulders. Instead of building on our successes and letting others approach us, we look towards getting entry into "clubs" which offer no concrete benefits except for a ego boost.

Modi made a mistake here, gave in too much for too little and that is still not a crime. Crime was that he "Lost". In such high stakes game, you play to win or you sit one out. World is just too cruel to failures.

It also dealt a big blow to Indian credibility. How can India promise favors at international geo-politics to other minnow nations when it cannot even pull it's own weight.

"It is better to be quiet and let other's think you are a fool then to open your mouth and remove all doubt"

Start a thread on India's present geo-political options.

 

[bolo]

From the Indian media it seems that Modi offered to let China build a few nuclear reactors in India, as well as letting us build some Industrial parks.

But apparently the terms were not good enough. It's a good start though, and NSG membership is pointless anyway.

It's a bum deal for China. Allowing China to build nuclear plants mainly benefit India. They experience daily blackout. Building industrial parks mainly benefit India.

 

[Spectre]

I am not in the government & have no interest in reducing our trade with China. I was merely educating you that we don't import anything important from you

We do. Not a governmental level but a large portion of our capital goods used in our Energy and infrastructure projects is bought from China. If China stops servicing them then India faces a crippling blow to it's infrastructure.

Indian companies either don't produce these goods or if they do then they have huge supply side constraints like BHEL which has backlog of I think a decade now.

 

[CorporateAffairs]

Big win for China, Pak combo.
Loser USA.

 

[HariPrasad]

India's NSG seat and UNSC seat are still available...

IF they come to the table for an honest negotiation.

------------------------------

Let's be frank, China and India are NOT friends. We all know this.

Yet whenever India needs something (NSG/UNSC), they suddenly pretend that they are our friends, and ask for "free favours", like in the case of the NSG.

Then at the same time, they went behind China and did their best to try and guilt/isolate China into supporting their NSG bid, by making deals with every other country besides China. Hoping that foreign pressure would force China to succumb. Sorry, that never works. Only one veto is ever needed, that's how veto power works.

But they never did the thing which could actually give them what they want. Which is to come to the negotiating table and offer us something in return.

For example, India agreed to sign the CISMOA/LSA in return for America getting them the NSG seat (which they failed to deliver). India has never fought a war with America... yet they paid SO much for America's support in the NSG (the biggest payment possible). Did India really expect China to offer the same support for free, considering that we are NOT friends?

You want something, you offer something in return. That's how the world works.

Now let India come and negotiate. We are businessmen after all.

Hey guys,

We know very well that you are not going help us but we have to do that at a part of procedure. Let me tell you that even best of effort of china shall not be able to harm our interest. We have moved ahead from the stage where you can harm us. Any effort by china to harm india shall be counter productive to china.

 

[CorporateAffairs]

Let's be frank, China and India are NOT friends. We all know this.

Yes its evident now.
Thought all Chinese hate to India is infatuation, but now no more living in dreams.
You will see an appropriate foreign policy from India.

 

[bolo]

3. Break Rules

Sign the goddamn NPT and then renege on it. China signed it and is a member of NSG but does it give two hoots for it? No! It breaks them with impunity. We bit the bullet and did the nuclear tests - did the sky fall? No! After couple of years of mild pain, we were back in business. Now we are in a even more favorable situation. Only currency in this world is commerce, rest is all BS. As they say in India "Paisa Phek, Tamasha Dekh" crude translation "Throw money to make others dance to your tunes"

This will show the world India is more untrustworthy than previously known. @Chinese-Dragon

The other points you made are valid, but do you not think China know what India is up to? In my humble opinion, the era of countries moving medium to high tech manufacturing to another country is over.