India and China :Jostling for space in the sea??

[Neo]

Huge amounts of oil cannot be transported through trucks.One supertanker full of oil will be equal to hundreds of trucks.And an Oil pipeline is very easy to sabotage.Once sabotaged it will be very difficult to bring it back to life.

And no matter how betterment be done on the Karakoram highway, it can only assure all seasonal usage and not 'interference free', and it will take hell of a time transporting them all the way to China's eastern coast.[/QUOTE]

Northern Alaska is pumping more than 2 million barrels a day throughout the year. The Sino-Pak pipeline if built will use same technology, heated pipelines that will remain open 12 months a year.

Again sabotaging an internationally operated pipeline isn't going to help you, it will backfire.
Guess where the oil is coming from?
Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE and Qatar. None of these countries would be happy to lose China as one of their biggest customer.

An oil boycot of India is likely to follow incase KKH pipeline is sabotaged.

 

[vish]

If you think that you can block KKH and Straight of Malakka think again!
India ain't strong enough to take on Chna and Pakistan at the same time.
Any movement towards KKH would be seen as an act or war.

We may not be able to "take on" Pakistan and China at the same time but we definitely can hold our own and ensure a stalemate if attacked in unison by Pakistan and PRC.

Neither the IN nor the PLAN can do anything against each other; at least not until now. The IN calls the IOR its backyard due to its geography.

What the PRC is doing is gaining political clout; something which India has also been doing.

Further, why does everyone forget the biggest dog in the IOR: the USN?

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

The Karakoram Highway (KKH) is the highest paved international road in the world. It connects China and Pakistan across the Karakoram mountain range, through the Khunjerab Pass, at an altitude of 4,877 metres (16,002 feet). It connects China's Xinjiang region with Pakistan's Northern Areas.

No highway that high can be open throughout the year since it is not feasible.

In winter, like all other high passes in Kashmir, be it on the Indian or Pakistani side it will be closed by huge amount of snowfall, more so since the terrain is treacherous leading to huge landslides and avalanches that even wipe out parts of such roads!

 

[Mohammed Azizuddin]

We may not be able to "take on" Pakistan and China at the same time but we definitely can hold our own and ensure a stalemate if attacked in unison by Pakistan and PRC.

Neither the IN nor the PLAN can do anything against each other; at least not until now. The IN calls the IOR its backyard due to its geography.

What the PRC is doing is gaining political clout; something which India has also been doing.

Further, why does everyone forget the biggest dog in the IOR: the USN?

Yes, sabotageing an oil pipeline will be an open option.The Indian Airforce will look to bomb vital oil installations and undertake special sorties for it.I dont think it will strike anywhere outside China.And also the Tibet situations will suit the Indians.

Also note the Malabar joint Naval drill.
India,Usa,Japan,Australia,Singapore.
The Chinese did not react to this in a big way,only a public condemnation of this incident, but, insiders say that this naval exercise sent alarm bells ringing in Beijing.

It's a big game....
Lets take a look at potential players

For China-North Korea, Burma-is gonna be a trump card.As of now, both India and China have equal influence on Burma, cannot say which side it will swng.
Pakistan-Definately a strong China suppoter, but will not jump unless attacked by India.
The Chinese need to rope in-
Malaysia:Will hold the key in the crucial south Asia region, holding the key to various alternative sealanes to China.China needs to keep them happy.
Srilanka:Need to develop good relations with them.Aseaport being built by China, India is not happy, and Lanka cannot afford to keep India unhappy for long.
Maldieves:China's Relations with Maldieves are the most crucial for secure sea lanes.China's Naval base in Maldieves will surely help them, this could earn them a crucial point.

Now, For India:

Main players:
Usa, Singapore, Australia, Japan, Malaysaia,Burma.

Burma:Again cannot say which way it will swing, has got equal nfluence on it.

Australia: A potent sub-marine fleet and a Nato- force.Definately a staunch Us ally, will back India at all costs.

USA:The biggest watchdog in the Indian ocean will openly back India.

Singapore:Naval exercises are a regular feature, could hod the key at the time of war.Excellent relations with India.

Japan:Again a staunch US ally, growing feeling of in-security with rise of Chinese power.With constant pressure from Japan, the Chinese navy wil be limited only to the South China sea.

Need to rope in:

Malaysia for obivious reasons,and need to develop relations with Vietnam,Taiwan.These are going to be the trump cards for India, and of-course South-korea. India has excellent relations with south Korea, need to re-enforce it.

A sure game of Cat and mouse.The sea holds the key.

 

[gpit]

No question that India Ocean and Malacca Strait are strategically important locations.

However, wetly dreaming that India can choke China to death by blocking/attacking oil transportation is not only mentally immature or even retarded, but also intentionally repulsive.

1. So called “Democratic Alliance” of India, US, Japan, Australia has been a dead meat since Rudd becomes Aussi PM. It is truly laughable to wave this piece of rotten corpse as a banner for saber-rattling. Later Australian different PM might think of reviving that, if he/she is stupid enough to ignore vital importance of the relationship with China, as China has been the biggest trade partner of Australia; and Chinese population in Australia, currently 2.3% of the population, is steadily growing (in comparison, Indian composes 0.66%). http://elecpress.monash.edu.au/pnp/free/pnpv7n4/v7n4_3price.pdf

2. China has entered many contracts with various countries, such as Saudi Arabia. It is those countries’ oil tanks that will carry oil to China. Given the fact that Saudi, Iran, Oman provide 35% the oil that China needs Analysis of China's energy import and export - China Institute - University of Alberta Indian navy will more likely to attack Saudi tanks than Chinese tanks. In addition, many Chinese oil projects are joint ventures with ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, etc. Wonder Indians would be silly enough to strike them without hesitation. In contrast, many Indian oil projects are solely owned by Indians, Chinese Amy can wipe them off relentlessly.

3. Mostly delusive assumption is that only Indian can attack Chinese facilities, not the other way around. The retarded, in their ecstasy, forget totally that Chinese Big-dipper GPS system that can guide missiles from China to attack targets so precisely that it would be too late for inane but bellicose strategists or politicians to lament the same similar to 1962. Under the mutual attack situation, China has probably already achieved 30-90 day strategic petroleum reserve goal http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/China/Oil.html, whereas Indians are still debating it perhaps for another decade http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/India/Oil.html.

Truly comical!

4. Where is Indian:

 

[vish]

The Aussie factor in the US-Australia-Japan-India alliance may be in a limbo but the tri-party pseudo alliance (India-US-Japan) cannot be overlooked. The Indian Navy enjoys tremendous goodwill with the navies of the ASEAN region (a big advantage).

The number two man in Mynmar is very much anti-China; Mynmar is significantly pro-India.

A major political party in Bangladesh is pro-India; this cannot be overlooked.

Sri Lanka will never make any move that is anti-India; they will have a lot to loose if they do so.

China does enjoy tremendous clout with the African nations; this has a lot to do with Chinese "hard power." India's "soft power" clout is much more than PRC's; note: a whole lot of countries are concerned about the rise of China; relatively few are concerned with India's ascent.

If the IN becomes a 3-carrier navy (something that will happen in 10-15 years); then the PLAN will have one hell of a time to counter it.

The likelihood of a war is almost nil. Both India and China can't do squat against each other. Let us not forget that the PLA is sorely lacking in soft power. The IA does not have enough material power to accomplish something significant against the PLA; the reason being half of it is being used to fight PLA's proxy, the PA. All these "moves" are there to create deterents.

What I find surprising is that everybody believes that China has India in its cross-hairs and we are not doing a thing about it. The PRC is haggling so hard because it has one major limitation to overcome (which it never will): geography, which favors India. India has immense political clout and soft power in the region to counter Beijing. Our media is prone to active yellow-paper journalism.

The real advantage we enjoy is Uncle Sam and Aunt EU.

 

[Mohammed Azizuddin]

No question that India Ocean and Malacca Strait are strategically important locations.

However, wetly dreaming that India can choke China to death by blocking/attacking oil transportation is not only mentally immature or even retarded, but also intentionally repulsive.

1. So called “Democratic Alliance” of India, US, Japan, Australia has been a dead meat since Rudd becomes Aussi PM. It is truly laughable to wave this piece of rotten corpse as a banner for saber-rattling. Later Australian different PM might think of reviving that, if he/she is stupid enough to ignore vital importance of the relationship with China, as China has been the biggest trade partner of Australia; and Chinese population in Australia, currently 2.3% of the population, is steadily growing (in comparison, Indian composes 0.66%). http://elecpress.monash.edu.au/pnp/free/pnpv7n4/v7n4_3price.pdf

2. China has entered many contracts with various countries, such as Saudi Arabia. It is those countries’ oil tanks that will carry oil to China. Given the fact that Saudi, Iran, Oman provide 35% the oil that China needs Analysis of China's energy import and export - China Institute - University of Alberta Indian navy will more likely to attack Saudi tanks than Chinese tanks. In addition, many Chinese oil projects are joint ventures with ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, etc. Wonder Indians would be silly enough to strike them without hesitation. In contrast, many Indian oil projects are solely owned by Indians, Chinese Amy can wipe them off relentlessly.

3. Mostly delusive assumption is that only Indian can attack Chinese facilities, not the other way around. The retarded, in their ecstasy, forget totally that Chinese Big-dipper GPS system that can guide missiles from China to attack targets so precisely that it would be too late for inane but bellicose strategists or politicians to lament the same similar to 1962. Under the mutual attack situation, China has probably already achieved 30-90 day strategic petroleum reserve goal http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/China/Oil.html, whereas Indians are still debating it perhaps for another decade http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/India/Oil.html.

Truly comical!

4. Where is Indian:

RIGHT, I sincere advice, Dont live in a false bubble.

Before I say something on the Issue, I just wanna say something..
DO NOT BELIEVE IN ANYTHING, CAUSE ONCE YOU START BELIVEVEING IN SOMETHING, YOU TEND TO THINK THAT EVERYTHING ELSE DOES NOT EXIST.......INSTEAD, START UNDERSTANDING THINGS.

Now,
A exports of coal, iron and copper led to growing trade surpluses of $13.6 billion with Japan and $6.1 billion with India. Also in 2005-6, Australia experienced trade deficits of $13 billion with the U.S., $7.3 billion with Germany, $6.4 billion with Singapore and $5.3 billion with China.

Australia's free-trade stance helps to encourage Aussie exports through international trade blocs. For example, Australian exports in 2005-6 to the European Union grew 34% to $18.5 billion.

Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1301.0 - Year Book Australia, 2007 (above statistics were calculated at an average exchange rate of 1.29968 Australian $ per 1 US$)

1. Japan ... US$26.4 billion (up 24.2% from prior year)
2. China ... $15.5 billion (up 37.6%)
3. United States ... $10.9 billion (up 3.4%)
4. South Korea ... $9.9 billion (up 20.3%)
5. United Kingdom ...$9.3 billion (up 61.5%)
6. New Zealand ... $8.8 billion (down 4.7%)
7. India ... $6.3 billion (up 21.1%)
8. Singapore ... $5.1 billion (up 24.9%)
9. Taiwan ... $4.8 billion (up 20%)
10. Thailand ... $3.7 billion (up 8.2%)
These are Australia's largest revenue generators.

Now, if you look at Australia, it's a Nato standard force, and is a major ally of USA.Don't expect them to cross the line that USA has drawn for them.

Now, the Oil issue,

Lets look at the top oil producers,
In Million Barrels perday...

1)Saudi Arabia-10.72
2)Russia - 9.67
3)Unitedstates-8.37
.
.
.
.
6)China-3.84.
Most of the oil produced by China is for local consumption, they dont export much.

Now, lets look at the top oil consumers..
1)United States -20.59
2)China -7.27
3)Japan -5.22
.
.
.
.
6)India-2.53
Top World Oil Producers, Exporters, Consumers, and Importers, 2006 — Infoplease.com

Now, let's look at the proven oil reserves that each country has...

1. Saudi Arabia - 264.3
2. Canada - 178.8
3. Iran 132.5
4. Iraq 115.0
5. Kuwait 101.5
6. UAE 97.8
7. Venezuela 79.7
8. Russia 60.0
9. Libya 39.1
10. Nigeria 35.9
11. United States 21.4
12. China 18.3
13. Qatar 15.2
14. Mexico 12.9
15. Algeria 11.4
16. Brazil 11.2
17. Kazakhstan 9.0
18. Norway 7.7
19. Azerbaijan 7.0
20. India 5.8

Top 20 countries 1224.5 (95%)
Rest of world 68.1 (5%)
World total 1,292.6
Greatest Oil Reserves by Country, 2006 — Infoplease.com

If you can observe, the oil production of China even though it is more than India, it still has to import oil more than what India does.
China even though it produces more oil than India, it has to import 3.44 million barrels perday, and India has to import 1.69 million barrels per day.

There will be more pressure on the Chinese dependence of sea lanes...and more importance of statergic sea routes.
If you dont believe in logic, think this is a wet dream, if you think something called "logic" exists in this world, well, this is plane logic for you mate!!!

 

[QuickSilver]

RIGHT, I sincere advice, Dont live in a false bubble.

Before I say something on the Issue, I just wanna say something..
DO NOT BELIEVE IN ANYTHING, CAUSE ONCE YOU START BELIVEVEING IN SOMETHING, YOU TEND TO THINK THAT EVERYTHING ELSE DOES NOT EXIST.......INSTEAD, START UNDERSTANDING THINGS.

Now,
A exports of coal, iron and copper led to growing trade surpluses of $13.6 billion with Japan and $6.1 billion with India. Also in 2005-6, Australia experienced trade deficits of $13 billion with the U.S., $7.3 billion with Germany, $6.4 billion with Singapore and $5.3 billion with China.

Australia's free-trade stance helps to encourage Aussie exports through international trade blocs. For example, Australian exports in 2005-6 to the European Union grew 34% to $18.5 billion.

Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1301.0 - Year Book Australia, 2007 (above statistics were calculated at an average exchange rate of 1.29968 Australian $ per 1 US$)

1. Japan ... US$26.4 billion (up 24.2% from prior year)
2. China ... $15.5 billion (up 37.6%)
3. United States ... $10.9 billion (up 3.4%)
4. South Korea ... $9.9 billion (up 20.3%)
5. United Kingdom ...$9.3 billion (up 61.5%)
6. New Zealand ... $8.8 billion (down 4.7%)
7. India ... $6.3 billion (up 21.1%)
8. Singapore ... $5.1 billion (up 24.9%)
9. Taiwan ... $4.8 billion (up 20%)
10. Thailand ... $3.7 billion (up 8.2%)
These are Australia's largest revenue generators.

Now, if you look at Australia, it's a Nato standard force, and is a major ally of USA.Don't expect them to cross the line that USA has drawn for them.

Now, the Oil issue,

Lets look at the top oil producers,
In Million Barrels perday...

1)Saudi Arabia-10.72
2)Russia - 9.67
3)Unitedstates-8.37
.
.
.
.
6)China-3.84.
Most of the oil produced by China is for local consumption, they dont export much.

Now, lets look at the top oil consumers..
1)United States -20.59
2)China -7.27
3)Japan -5.22
.
.
.
.
6)India-2.53
Top World Oil Producers, Exporters, Consumers, and Importers, 2006 — Infoplease.com

Now, let's look at the proven oil reserves that each country has...

1. Saudi Arabia - 264.3
2. Canada - 178.8
3. Iran 132.5
4. Iraq 115.0
5. Kuwait 101.5
6. UAE 97.8
7. Venezuela 79.7
8. Russia 60.0
9. Libya 39.1
10. Nigeria 35.9
11. United States 21.4
12. China 18.3
13. Qatar 15.2
14. Mexico 12.9
15. Algeria 11.4
16. Brazil 11.2
17. Kazakhstan 9.0
18. Norway 7.7
19. Azerbaijan 7.0
20. India 5.8

Top 20 countries 1224.5 (95%)
Rest of world 68.1 (5%)
World total 1,292.6
Greatest Oil Reserves by Country, 2006 — Infoplease.com

If you can observe, the oil production of China even though it is more than India, it still has to import oil more than what India does.
China even though it produces more oil than India, it has to import 3.44 million barrels perday, and India has to import 1.69 million barrels per day.

There will be more pressure on the Chinese dependence of sea lanes...and more importance of statergic sea routes.
If you dont believe in logic, think this is a wet dream, if you think something called "logic" exists in this world, well, this is plane logic for you mate!!!

Good explanation there

with sound logic above, it proves the following

1)China's requirement of oil is more than India's
2) China requires more oil import than India
3) Hence China's dependence on sea routes
4) India and China may not go for an all out war but surely, nitpicking and proxy war is a possibility always in such a case, the present scene in the sea looks very much like each one trying to outdo the other!!
5) as of now, the things are more or less equal but a very slight tilt in balance towards china.

 

[Awesome]

India cannot just blatantly fire upon our oil pipelines, highway traffic and railways.

In the name of trade, this would continue easily.

If India decides to goto war with China over the Siachen glacier, Pakistan would support China with all means necessary. There's no way India would hold the glacier any more once it makes that mistake.

Heck Pakistan is so ready to conduct this operation if only China once gave the nod.

 

[Awesome]

Salim if you'd remember I used to argue on this little fact that this would happen some 3-4 years back. At that time the Pakistani Ambassador in China had officially denied this story when I contacted him, but a little birdie had told me otherwise. Don't know if you'd remember that from WAB?

However its happening, and I don't buy that KKH can't be opened for 12 months. I'm living in a country that is making tree shaped islands in moving water, that is making a full world map shaped island, that is making an underwater city, that even plans to make a floating buildings (yes in air).

You're telling me that we can't fix a road that we made 40 years ago in 2008?

Maybe it's just the Dubai in me, or Sheikh Mohammad's rubbed off a little on me. But as the old monarch says "This is just 7% of what I have envisioned for my country". Trust me, where theres a will theres a way.

 

[Always Neutral]

Salim if you'd remember I used to argue on this little fact that this would happen some 3-4 years back. At that time the Pakistani Ambassador in China had officially denied this story when I contacted him, but a little birdie had told me otherwise. Don't know if you'd remember that from WAB?

However its happening, and I don't buy that KKH can't be opened for 12 months. I'm living in a country that is making tree shaped islands in moving water, that is making a full world map shaped island, that is making an underwater city, that even plans to make a floating buildings (yes in air).

You're telling me that we can't fix a road that we made 40 years ago in 2008?

Maybe it's just the Dubai in me, or Sheikh Mohammad's rubbed off a little on me. But as the old monarch says "This is just 7% of what I have envisioned for my country". Trust me, where theres a will theres a way.

Cheers I was working on a dutch dredger on Palms project.

When man puts his mind to it everything is possible. Ofcourse once in a while mother nature will bring you back to earth for a short time but then man bounces back again.

Regards

 

[indiapakistanfriendship]

If India decides to goto war with China over the Siachen glacier, Pakistan would support China with all means necessary.

Err Asim

Why would India go to war with China on Siachin glacier when we are in hold of it and when China never claimed Siachin in the first place?

Heck Pakistan is so ready to conduct this operation if only China once gave the nod.

If PA is going to counduct the operation on its own why require nod from China?

 

[Mohammed Azizuddin]

India cannot just blatantly fire upon our oil pipelines, highway traffic and railways.

In the name of trade, this would continue easily.

If India decides to goto war with China over the Siachen glacier, Pakistan would support China with all means necessary. There's no way India would hold the glacier any more once it makes that mistake.

Heck Pakistan is so ready to conduct this operation if only China once gave the nod.

, Mate, India will never fire anything or try to hit at anything inside Pakistani territory, I am no great defence expert, but, I can read enough between the lines.
Cutting-of supply lines, is a major and most important operation in a war.If you dont go for the supply lines, the war will never end.And a front-off between huge nations like India and China, is going to be the case of who blinks first. The war will not be over in a long-long time.And the sea is the place where we get to see who blinks first.

Secondly, why on earth would India go to war with China over the Siachan conflict???

 

[Neo]

Salim if you'd remember I used to argue on this little fact that this would happen some 3-4 years back. At that time the Pakistani Ambassador in China had officially denied this story when I contacted him, but a little birdie had told me otherwise. Don't know if you'd remember that from WAB?

However its happening, and I don't buy that KKH can't be opened for 12 months. I'm living in a country that is making tree shaped islands in moving water, that is making a full world map shaped island, that is making an underwater city, that even plans to make a floating buildings (yes in air).

You're telling me that we can't fix a road that we made 40 years ago in 2008?

Maybe it's just the Dubai in me, or Sheikh Mohammad's rubbed off a little on me. But as the old monarch says "This is just 7% of what I have envisioned for my country". Trust me, where theres a will theres a way.

I second that.

My experience with China is that if she wants to develop something she simply delivers.
If KKH has to remain open 12 month a year to grant contiued supply to China we'll get it done.
Period!

 

[Neo]

Cutting-of supply lines, is a major and most important operation in a war.If you dont go for the supply lines, the war will never end.And a front-off between huge nations like India and China, is going to be the case of who blinks first. The war will not be over in a long-long time. And the sea is the place where we get to see who blinks first.

Wrong. Most experts believe that any future war between two nuclear powers will be shortlived.