Pakistan's only source of foreign funds are eitherYou’re right that he doesn’t know how to play the political game, as the PM or how to manage the ebbs and flows of parliamentary democracy. What he is good at was exposing the decade of rot across the board in our system, which is part of why many of the elite are pushing back. The first part of solving a problem (such as IK supposedly pausing not stop some CPEC projects, to read the fine print, if I remember correctly) was stopping the bleeding; the unsustainable projects, especially in the wake of COVID.
It’s not just that he is a novice, but his team around him seemed to be winging it. I got to meet and watch Zulfi Bukhari at Columbia University in 2019 when Wajahat Khan was co-moderating a panel with Indian media and I watched Wajahat’s face sink in disappointment when Zulfi started making emotional arguments.
I think IK wanted to govern the country similar to how it is done in a presidential system. According to Ayesha Siddiqa, IK only came to parliament 3 times.
When he ordered the dissolving of the provincial assemblies it was to trigger elections, but the system didn’t follow its own rules either. They way “they” have handled this was also overly harsh. It makes it seem no one knows how to handle this situation. That is also the ugly truth, and “they” have decades of experience, you would have thought they could have done it with more decorum, not smash through a window and grab a former PM like a thug off the street.
Frankly, if we had a real bottom up meritocratic democracy, not based on who you know, we could have produced better candidates for our elected leaders, but we are only given a few choices from amongst the elite. They made IK into what he is today. Once by letting him build up his corruption fighting and charity raising platform, through the 2010s, and then by allowing horse trading to not let him complete his term. Pakistanis know they have a parliamentary democracy but want to see their elected prime minister complete their 5 year term, so perhaps most people want a presidential system.
So now we are at an impasse. A large portion of the population trust only him, and if not him only the PTI. Crushing IK and the PTI will create many disaffected people amongst the spectrum, particularly amongst people with the skills and financing, that if willing to re-invest in the country, including but not limited to remittances, would raise foreign invested confidence and boost FDI. ~$28 Billion invest from the GCC will only support the economy over the next 3-5 years, in the same way $30 billion so far from CPEC over the last 10 years only grew the economy so much. The amount lost in remittances from overseas Pakistanis is more than what foreigners are willing to loan. I have personal acquaintances that live on Central Park East, here in New York, that fled after Bhuttos nationalization, then their companies were confiscated (he might be a member of one of the “22 families”). Even under IK they didn’t go back in a big way, as far as I know. They want real reforms and know Pakistan can be a faster growing market then the US. But if real reforms are not done, by 2028, We will be back to where we are today if not worse off.
Most countries have risen on the basis of cheap loans from local investors and FDI on the most favorable terms. Local and overseas Pakistani investors need to be attracted to productive industries.
That is why IMHO, IK as the next President would work, if coupled with a coalition government (perhaps with the self proclaim left wing PPP) focused on the economy but also improving social services, and carry out serious reforms. Perhaps even with Bilawal as the PM and SMQ can return as FM. Under this kind of government, Bilawal can make a name for himself and he and his party will have an incentive to improve governance in Sindh, Karachi, and Southern Punjab.
Having a left wing government will also help Pakistan pivot to a more “liberal” mindset if “they” hold them accountable to it, which could help pivot Pakistan’s international image.
This is not about loyalty to one party, but realpolitik and the stability of the nation within the confines of having something like a real democracy. (I tried to support PML-N when they were in power between 2013-2018 in hopes they would focus on water management, but when they showed no real interest and the PTI did, I began to support the PTI).
IMHO, this maybe the best way to move past this impasse, considering the various interest groups. PML-N can sit out the next 5 years in opposition and get a chance to come back in 2028 without facing much of the backlash for the needed reforms for come. In this way, most people could regain some level of trust in the national institutions … if and only if major reforms and tax changes are carried out.
It really comes down to carrying out those reforms but also improving social services and growing the economy so we can grow out of our mess (the population is expected to grow 60% over the next 30 years, our demographic dividend). We also need to stop saying everything is a part of CPEC (as was done with the Japanese funded Fort Munro Steel Bridge) and diversify our infrastructure projects with other countries particularly in the west where many of the diaspora live and can be of best use. More transparent western investments (funded by overseas Pakistanis and foreign investors) could have a built in export market access. Also, with improvements in rule of law, you will attract the best and brightest to come teach at Pakistani universities or help raise crop yields 2-3x fold as caretaker IT minister Umar Saif hopes to do.
So reconcile with the majority of the population’s aspirations and make the reforms (taxing the rich and cutting subsidies to unproductive industries) and attract investment into productive industries and not the real estate circus of plot trading on paper.
P.s. I never really watched cricket, so I didn’t care much that IK won the World Cup, only that it’s was a merit based win. Second, Pakistan is where india was 30 years ago, but if we learn the lessons from their experience, we could grow just as fast if not faster and catch up to them. No keeping up to regional health and education standards has us losing over 100,000 children to an early death unnecessarily and having our workers become uncompetitive, even when they go abroad.
2nd P.S. IK’s team failed in a lot of the execution and/or just maintaining what had already been built up.
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1: U.S. bribes to have full control over government policy.
2: Brotherly GCC/Saudi Money with very few strings attached at extremely subsidized rates.
3: Chinese Money with nearly zero strings attached at extremely subsidized rates.
The reason why you don't see other countries investing is because no one trusts Pakistan at all.
You are still peddling the Washington Narrative from the Trump Era, as your prophet, Imran Khan, was a Trump Administration appointee.
Hopefully the current technocrat setup that is clearly blessed by Washington can move the narrative forwards in PTI circles from at least the Trump Administration Narrative (Largely copied from the Indian Narrative), to the Biden Administration Narrative (That Pakistan needs to selectively default on Chinese loans, despite the fact that the reason Pakistan's percent of Chinese loans is increasing is due to the fact that Chinese loans are the most subsidized and apply the least force to the Pakistani leadership, therefore are the last to be paid back, as one pays back higher interest loans first).
Hopefully Pakistan bans all parties that are U.S. puppets, like Imran Khan and PTI, so that it can focus on development instead of being held hostage to geopolitics.
The U.S.'s preferred leader is obviously Imran Khan though, which is why every single CIA/Western backed media outlet is backing and has always backed Imran Khan.
The U.S.'s plan is to use Imran Khan as an Erdogan-like figure.
A Fake Anti-American that is under the full control of Washington.
Hopefully the COAS Asim Munir is able to protect PML(N) from U.S. machinations before the elections.
It's pretty clear that Nawaz Sharif and PML(N) is the only patriotic party in Pakistan that has any chance of developing Pakistan.
Imran Khan/PTI is intentionally incompetent (on U.S. orders), whose goal is to bankrupt Pakistan to force Pakistan to selectively default on Chinese loans and then be stuck under the direct U.S. control through a colonial viceroy (Either Imran Khan or his chosen COAS).
PPP/Bhutto is probably unintentionally incompetent and will end up serving a similar purpose.
If Pakistan is unlucky and gets a U.S. puppet COAS after Asim Munir's term is up, then Pakistan might be stuck in the same dilemma.
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