Most people don’t want to go back to the way things were before IK came to power. Many don’t want him in power, but they don’t want what it was like what it was like before him. He has raised expectations, and wether anyone like it or not, the campaign to sideline him has made his name synonymous with Pakistan in global media and synonymous with popular political leader in domestic media coverage for over a year. It’s either Imran Khan or the economy, when anyone searches for Pakistan in international media, as Wajahat Khan points out in his recent vlog. IK also has the cache in the west and core constituencies domestically and in neighboring countries to complete foreign policy objects if thought out and implemented properly. Policies that are vital core interests of Pakistan, such as connectivity with Central Asia and increasing foreign trade with the west. People in the west know him on a first name basis, especially in the diaspora and amongst groups such as various Muslim counties and diasporas of the world.
1. He has been shedding his naïveté and begun to face the governing dynamics of Pakistani society, as they actually are, adjusting accordingly. Nothing new, he is always said to make u-turns, this is just one of them. But what this whole episodes also highlights is the limits of Pakistan’s civilian power and Pakistani democracy as a whole, not just for him. I would have hoped this impasse could’ve been resolved in house, but I fortunately this is what it has come down to.
2. The intellectuals are being driven onto his side, because of the limits of the Pakistan’s political system. I’m sure they will extract a political price if they openly side with him. But for genuine intellectuals they are two limited choices, the status quo or change. Intellectuals generally favor change in hopes it improves things.
Failure to provide adequate education for kids or create a stable domestic economy has left the country open to messiah figures. The system itself like quick fixes; economically or politically, so it won’t have to do structural reforms and give up some privileges and economic monopolies, but that leaves the door open to figures that promise to fix things without having to do all the needed reforms. The system is lucky that it’s a figure like IK, that gave the system a blank check the last go around and that has recently accepted he needs to work within the system, if he wants to achieve his agenda.
In reality it’s the system that will have to give up some of its privileges like elite capture, to attract FDI, in order to save itself in an evolving geopolitical and economic world.
IK back in power would just help save the image of the system and the image of Pakistan’s democracy. Pakistan can’t afford to have another coup or an election that people the world over know is rigged to bring in the PML-N or the PPP. Those, individuals such as member of the diaspora or institutions or nations will become more apathetic and are more likely to disengage with Pakistan, and letting it spiral further and emboldening Pakistan’s enemies; states and miscreants alike.
3. The importance of money is being even more apparent, and limits of Pakistan trying to get money from allies and partners. Foreign inflows are down $5 billion, in some part due to a drop in remittances. The diaspora is one major trump card in his corner. If he can cobble together a framework of reforms he would impose on his government, once back in power, along with a feasible diplomatic and economic plan, he maybe able to sway enough power brokers to back elections, allowing him to return to office.
