Imran Khan: IMF, Elections, Conspiracies, Economy and Hope

[FuturePAF]

As for what he did wrong during his tenure, my answer would be very little given the challenges he dealt with namely (i) economy close to bankruptcy (ii) COVID and (iii) election of Biden. None of these problems can be attributed to his government.

But he is not blameless. He has been peddling snake oil for most of his political career namely his government can get rid of corruption. One reason he broke with Musharraf was that Musharraf aligned with Chaudrys who Khan accused of being corrupt which they were. But when time came, IK himself became buddy buddy with them. Most of IK's fanbois and fangirls live in cuckoo land i.e. they think IK has jadoo kee charee which can turn Pak into Scandinavia in a couple of years. There is alienation when promises prove to be empty rhetoric even when made with good intentions.

Similarly, despite being in politics for over twenty years, he never made economy a topic of his focus. He never highlighted mismanagement taking place under Dollar Dar. Instead IK kept peddling dangerous munjun that looted wealth would provide nirvana. When economy did not rebound, which he claimed it would, he got taken to task and harami elements took advantage.

In comparison to domestic policy, his biggest failure was on the international front. He claims to be an expert on Western societies but does not understand the basic axiom of Western policy which is that Western leaders do not tolerate independent muslim leaders especially those belonging to countries that have nuclear weapons while teetering on verge of bankruptcy. IK already had a target on his back when kept claiming for 20 years that Pakistan should protect Al Qaida. And yet he is crying now when goras had him kicked of power.

Awam respects leaders that can speak truth. IK never gathered mass support because awam could distinguish difference between rhetoric and reality. But IK has responded to the setback with great courage and bravery and this has enabled him to get mass support. Might be too late as his fate will likely be determined in the salons of Beijing, Riyadh and DC. This fault is due to DNA malfunction in Pak awam which is much to dheeth to stand up for its own right.

It really does come down to pivoting from rhetoric to reality. The end of his government and how poorly the current government has hand led the economy has changed the national perspective on IK’s economic performance. Basically giving them a pass in the national psyche of their economic shortcomings.

That will buy him a second chance on the economy, for which he will have to come up with a concrete plan, led by real experts, if he is not to squander that chance at trying to attract those that primarily side with / core for the leader that can bring economic growth.

The fall of his government and the current state of the western border also put distance between the Afghan war and global perspectives on Pakistan vis a vi that war.

IK for his part, because of his stand against that war, has acquired a certain amount of credibility with the rulers in our western neighbor and he will have to formulate a strategy that uses that unique cache to achieve goals that serves the national interests, namely trade corridors to Central Asia and a stable relationship with the Afghans that serves the Pakistani economy’s growth goals as well as foreign policy aspirations.

Getting that in place, ASAP, while Russian influence in Central Asia is in flux, and the GCC would want to find a way to contain Iran even further, could position Pakistan as the corridor to Central Asia (the Russians and Irans still have the potential to challenge trade via the Caspian Sea) and achieving those goals, for itself and his partners in the GCC, Turkey, and the West.

Btw, has the Jail campaign started?

 

[VCheng]

what changes will occur to the system if Khan returns after the elections?

Zero. Zilch. Nada. Just like before. Beware of false claims, just like before.

 

[Ssan]

@AZ1

It took him 3.5 years to reach from $7billion from 2018 to $18BIllion 2022

In the same period the foreign currency debt also went up from USD 51 billion to USD 86 billion.

Regards

If you are going to post figures, at least make them real.

 

[Ssan]

@AZ1

How much repaid for previous loan taken of $92 Billion by whole ppp,pmln?

If your argument is that the loans taken by PTI were only taken to repay old loans, the debt stock would have remained stable, no? But the total debt has gone up by USD 35 billion, even if we net off for the build of forex reserves of USD 11 billion, it is still a net increase of 24 billion.

If you take loans to pay back your old loans, the total loans actually increase by the aggregate of the interest bearing on your total debt. FYI.

 

[Maula Jatt]

He is doing his best despite there’s a lot of resistance hopefully things will move towards the positive side but will take time imran khan is last hope for Pakistan.

Please stop this messiah complex guys

We are Pakistanis ffs, one man can't be our hope let alone last hope - change only happens when we change not when a so called Messiah comes along

 

[TheSolution]

Please stop this messiah complex guys

We are Pakistanis ffs, one man can't be our hope let alone last hope - change only happens when we change not when a so called Messiah comes along

Pakistanis are not the kind to change by themselves, they're addicted to nepotism, corruption, etc, etc and will continue with it if left alone.

If someone doesn't emerge in the top echelon soon who is dedicated and with a clear map for reforms, then this same status quo will continue for decades while the world moves ahead.

What you are suggesting is like a 1 in a million chance that just won't happen. Right now Pakistan can't even focus on trying to develop or compete with other countries, it's still looking for relatively satisfactory institutions who can go onto attempt it.

 

[Olympus81]

IK (if) gets elected with a majority won’t be able to do much for the first 5 years. He’ll just have to extinguish fires and get establishment on its place (difficult).

Best is let the country burn for a few more months, force a violent civil disobedience, hope something goods comes out of the chaos.

And then maybe things can start from 0.

(I can understand some of you folks who’re on a perpetual defeatist spiral, but please not all is lost. There have been many times Pakistan has achieved some feats miraculously)

 

[S.Y.A]

Please stop this messiah complex guys

We are Pakistanis ffs, one man can't be our hope let alone last hope - change only happens when we change not when a so called Messiah comes along

the thing is that there is no "we" in Pakistan. a strong leadership is required/needed for change here. different nationalities, ethnicities, tribes, biraderies have divergent interests. all honesty/sincerity/loyalty goes out of the window if a guy from your village turns up asking for a favor. pakistanis, as a whole, are incapable of looking at the bigger picture, and putting the collective before the individual.

to set the civil service right, you will need a policy change from the top. you will need a revision of rules governing civil service conduct, a revision of civil service rules of business, secretariat instruction rules, a revision of office procedures rule. all of this will be done from the top. the civil service wont do it.

you will have to have a strong leader who can change the judge selection criteria, and judiciary accountability rules, judiciary wont do it itself. same goes for the military. same goes for the police. it will take balls of steel to do it.

 

[FuturePAF]

Please stop this messiah complex guys

We are Pakistanis ffs, one man can't be our hope let alone last hope - change only happens when we change not when a so called Messiah comes along

Then can we agree we need institutional reform. If we want to think like a normal country we need to be run like a normal country. When power is not devolved to the common man they seek “champions” to struggle for what they feel are their interests. I too would like to get past the point where we need to know the names of any politician and can focus on improving the lives of our fellow countrymen through economic growth. I much rather know the names of CEOs of major companies, and what they are doing, so I can invest in them.

Let’s look past how for many he is a charismatic and visionary figure, that has galvanized a people to hope for more from their government, and let’s lay out what he proposes and debate the merits of his platform and its implementation in comparison to the platforms of the alternative parties. I will concede the vision is great but the execution left much to be desired.

IK is mortal. Call it Ego or narcissism if you must, but the only legacy he has ever espoused for himself is to leave the country in a stable and improving condition for its people then when he first took the reigns of power.

 

[kingQamaR]

Please stop this messiah complex guys

We are Pakistanis ffs, one man can't be our hope let alone last hope - change only happens when we change not when a so called Messiah comes along

That’s exactly what we should be doing. It’s exactly why I never understand putting the same ones back in office year after year. We all need to vote in new blood that will work for the people instead of the lame ducks in both parties. Term limits sure would help

Pakistanis are not the kind to change by themselves, they're addicted to nepotism, corruption, etc, etc and will continue with it if left alone.

If someone doesn't emerge in the top echelon soon who is dedicated and with a clear map for reforms, then this same status quo will continue for decades while the world moves ahead.

What you are suggesting is like a 1 in a million chance that just won't happen. Right now Pakistan can't even focus on trying to develop or compete with other countries, it's still looking for relatively satisfactory institutions who can go onto attempt it.

I always have thought that we are ruled by morons. But of late I have come to understand that we all (the voters) are also morons for electing the morons that rule us.

 

[Burger_King]

It really does come down to pivoting from rhetoric to reality. The end of his government and how poorly the current government has hand led the economy has changed the national perspective on IK’s economic performance. Basically giving them a pass in the national psyche of their economic shortcomings.

That will buy him a second chance on the economy, for which he will have to come up with a concrete plan, led by real experts, if he is not to squander that chance at trying to attract those that primarily side with / core for the leader that can bring economic growth.

The fall of his government and the current state of the western border also put distance between the Afghan war and global perspectives on Pakistan vis a vi that war.

IK for his part, because of his stand against that war, has acquired a certain amount of credibility with the rulers in our western neighbor and he will have to formulate a strategy that uses that unique cache to achieve goals that serves the national interests, namely trade corridors to Central Asia and a stable relationship with the Afghans that serves the Pakistani economy’s growth goals as well as foreign policy aspirations.

Getting that in place, ASAP, while Russian influence in Central Asia is in flux, and the GCC would want to find a way to contain Iran even further, could position Pakistan as the corridor to Central Asia (the Russians and Irans still have the potential to challenge trade via the Caspian Sea) and achieving those goals, for itself and his partners in the GCC, Turkey, and the West.

Btw, has the Jail campaign started?

I think you raise some good points.

Taliban will adapt the right attitude once revolutionary fervor burns out. We have seen in China that Chinese policymakers become pragmatic after old guard started to go in the background. I believe we will see something similar in Afghanistan.

Taliban leadership has roots in the society and will work for for the benefit of the country when militarist elements recede into the background. War fighting and running a country require different mindset and skillset. Ultimately, Taliban leadership will realize that it is to the benefit of both countries if they cooperate.

But while I agree with your analysis, Pakistan cannot be explicit in its support for Taliban. Statecraft and diplomacy is not conducted in glare of publicity. Best course for Pak is to run with the hare and hunt with the hound. This is the strategy Pak has used to great effect when Pak participated in Afgan Jehad and after Americans invaded Afghanistan when Pak acted against Al Qaeda while protecting Taliban leadership.

IK however wanted to be a revolutionary leader by trying to conduct in public, what should be private and therefore is paying a price for his foolishness.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@Ssan

If you take loans to pay back your old loans, the total loans actually increase by the aggregate of the interest bearing on your total debt. FYI.

Thanks. As a person who has worked as a debt analyst for 25 years, I am aware of that! The thing of course is that if you are taking loans to pay interest on loans (as opposed to taking loans to pay off the principal) you are already in a debt trap. The question then is why was Pakiland effectively in a debt trap in the IK era (again I am not blaming IK alone for it).

Ans surely you can see that the rate of growth in debt was highest in 2021.

Regards

 

[Ssan]

@Ssan

If you take loans to pay back your old loans, the total loans actually increase by the aggregate of the interest bearing on your total debt. FYI.

Thanks. As a person who has worked as a debt analyst for 25 years, I am aware of that! The thing of course is that if you are taking loans to pay interest on loans (as opposed to taking loans to pay off the principal) you are already in a debt trap. The question then is why was Pakiland effectively in a debt trap in the IK era (again I am not blaming IK alone for it).

Ans surely you can see that the rate of growth in debt was highest in 2021.

Regards

Dude, do some research. It’s not that hard. During IK tenure, they ran a positive primary CAD (which ignores debt servicing payment). All western countries retire their debt by buying new debt (this includes principal and interest payment).

As with regards to the pure numbers you were wrong ofc. And debt did not increase most in 2021. You seem to ignore 2017. Why?

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@Ssan

During IK tenure, they ran a positive primary CAD (which ignores debt servicing payment).

That is because for a good part of the IK tenure- between mid 2019 and mid 2021 the oil prices were really low, also the heavy duty import capex of CPEC was already over.

And debt did not increase most in 2021. You seem to ignore 2017. Why?

Not at all. If you recall most of that debt was capex debt to fund the CPEC projects.As any financial analyst would tell you debt taken for funding capex is fine as long as the return on that capex is higher than the cost of borrowings. (I personally think CPEC was a bad idea but that is a different matter)

Regards

 

[Ssan]

@Ssan

During IK tenure, they ran a positive primary CAD (which ignores debt servicing payment).

That is because for a good part of the IK tenure- between mid 2019 and mid 2021 the oil prices were really low, also the heavy duty import capex of CPEC was already over.

And debt did not increase most in 2021. You seem to ignore 2017. Why?

Not at all. If you recall most of that debt was capex debt to fund the CPEC projects.As any financial analyst would tell you debt taken for funding capex is fine as long as the return on that capex is higher than the cost of borrowings. (I personally think CPEC was a bad idea but that is a different matter)

Regards

I posted the figures. You can take a look at total debt there. Clearly the original numbers you posted were bollocks.

Your new insight about capex debt will have to be proven. I posted the numbers for total debt - go ahead and post the numbers for total minus capex debt.