Who will win the World Twenty20?
So, we're down to England, Sri Lanka, Australia and Pakistan, and each of the four have legitimate claims to be a contender
The last time I asked this question, the answer was as uncertain as the conversation of the seriously stoned taxi driver who took drove me to the Kensington Oval last Friday afternoon. Eight months ago the knock-out rounds were too close to call, each of the four surviving teams having a claim to be favourites for the title. This time around the world cup has one clear contender, Australia.
Using Roger Moore's toupee-era Bond films as a point of reference is a habit I normally try to keep to my inner monologue, so excuse me when I say that Australia remind the Spin of Max Zorin screaming "More! More power! More!" in the closing scenes of a View To A Kill.
More power. The Australians have three 90mph fast bowlers, with the added advantage that two of them are left-armers. Dirk Nannes is the best Twenty20 quick left in the competition. He is complemented by the wayward but dangerous Shaun Tait and, as an absurdly good first change, Mitchell Johnson. The batting is just as muscular. Michael Clarke rightly reckons that in Shane Watson and David Warner he has the best opening pair in the competition. They are swaggering pair of bullies, strutting around the wicket like jocks in a high school locker room, dumping opposition bowlers over the boundary as though they were depositing nerds head-first into the toilet. David Hussey and Cameron White loom over their shoulders as intimidating back-up.
Naturally enough both Sri Lanka and West Indies decided to attack the
leg-spin of Steve Smith. He turns the ball just enough, and has responded by taking five wickets for 32 runs in his last eight overs. With Hussey and Clarke providing slow-left-arm and off-spin variation, spin is hardly a weak link in the chain.
If there is a vulnerability, it is that the top-order have collapsed twice in five matches, to 65 for six against Bangladesh and 67 for five against Sri Lanka, both stumbles coming when batting first trying to attack spinners. So their top-order can fall apart. But Mike Hussey is a sea-wall at six and both times the waves of attack broke on him and foundered.
Their opposition in the semi-final, Pakistan have won only two of their five games and still made it through. At times they have been terrible, especially in the field. Shahid Afridi has been too burdened by the challenges of captaincy to play with his characteristic Dumas Père abandon. Their batting has been propped up by Salman Butt, who has averaged 47 in the tournament while playing with neat orthodoxy. He has had just a little support from the Akmal brothers.
In Saeed Ajmal they have one of the finest Twenty20 spin-bowlers going, but otherwise their attack has been cobbled together from part-time contributions. Mohammad Aamer is the only quick to have played all five matches. He has five wickets at 23 runs each, but three of them came in a single over against Australia.
And yet, no one who knows the old clichés will count Pakistan out yet, unpredictable as they are. In 2009 they also scraped through the early stages before coming up against another power-house team in the semis, South Africa, who they choked with spin. So history provides a little hope. Some will also draw heart from the fact they play Australia on the slower wicket at St Lucia rather than the rapid one on Barbados, but the two teams have already played here at the Beasejour, and Pakistan got thumped. No team is quicker to switch on when the mood takes them, but on form they have a slender chance.
England's consistency has surprised everyone except themselves. Critics still have their doubts, bred by years of disappointment, but the team have a hard-edge of genuine self-confidence. The untried combination of Michael Lumb and Craig Kieswetter are just about working at the top of the order, though England are the only team in the semis where neither opener has passed fifty. In fact, in his 16 T20 innings since he joined Rajasthan, Lumb has passed 25 eight times, and 50 only once. Kieswetter has hit more sixes than anyone else in the team, but is still scoring slower than anyone except Paul Colingwood, over-reliant as he is on big shots rather than quick singles. But England are happy to risk both men in return for the reward of a quick kick-start.
The real reason for their success though is the form of Kevin Pietersen and Eoin Morgan in the middle order. Morgan has failed only once, against Pakistan. He has ice for blood. Pietersen's evisceration of Dale Steyn was one of the moments of the tournament. If he returns to the team in anything like the mood he left, he could bat England to the title single-handed.
They still have a couple of cards up their sleeve when it comes to bowing, though they are jacks rather than aces. Collingwood and Luke Wright have delivered only six balls between them. That is testament to how well the front five men of the attack have performed. The Spin wondered if England's seam bowlers had enough devil about them to survive, and the answer is that they do. Tim Bresnan has been outstanding, his stock ball attacking the ribs and robbing the batsmen of width. Ryan Sidebottom's line has been as tight as his taste in T-shirts. Between the spinners, Graeme Swann takes wickets and Mike Yardy chokes off runs. England, then, have clear limitations. The question is whether or not they can keep winning regardless.
More than any of the others Sri Lanka made it through off the back of one man's outstanding individual form. But after a run of 81, 100 and 98 not out the imperious Mahela Jaywardene has, understandably, started to flag. His batting has been the string holding the team's trousers up: the collapse against Australia on Sunday was an ugly example of just how embarrassed they could have been without his contribution. Against India the others picked up some of the slack. Kumar Sangakkara is starting to tick and the way in which Angelo Mathews clicked into form is ominous for England, as he can beat them with both bat and ball. Still, with Ajantha Mendis dropped and Muttiah Muralitharan out injured, the Lankan's potent spin-combination has been sent to the wreckers. In their absence the team have used 11 different bowlers, more than anyone else in the tournament. Only Lasith Malinga has reached five wickets, and that has taken him five matches.
All of which would seem to suggest that, unless Pakistan catch alight or Jayawardene scores big, the likeliest final is England v Australia. There is surely no need to explain to you which way my heart and head are split over who might win that.
This is an excerpt from the Spin, guardian.co.uk/sport's free cricket email.
The Spin | Who will win the World Twenty20? | Andy Bull | Sport | guardian.co.uk