Hypothetical - Can IAF be wiped out in 10 hour or 12 hours by PLAAF?

[IblinI]

So, then let me know your answer to any BM fired at Beijing by India?

You are obviously not here for discussion, can't find a better emoji for you than this.

 

[LeGenD]

@pothead

Decision makers tend to be careful and observant on average. Let us assume this to be the case.

 

[pothead]

You are obviously not here for discussion, can't find a better emoji for you than this.

You still are not participating in the discussion.
instead of emojees, why don't you clearly state your opinion on what China would do if India fires BM's at Beijing?

@pothead

Decision makers tend to be careful and observant on average. Let us assume this to be the case.

Agreed, after all the decision makers are rarely suicidal.
Then, let's rule out China using BM's to take out India's infrastructure right off the bat.

What's now left with China is to use it's current infra + air assets to attack India.

We come back to square one where in PLAAF would have to play offense and IAF + Air defense will be defense for India.
India being the defender can mobilize faster, get more assets in play much quicker than PLAAF can on Indian soil (This is not IAF attacking China, mind you)

Let's all not forget the choke-hold IN can place on Chinese vessels in straits in case of any air attack by PLAAF.

 

[Khan vilatey]

You still are not participating in the discussion.
instead of emojees, why don't you clearly state your opinion on what China would do if India fires BM's at Beijing?




Agreed, after all the decision makers are rarely suicidal.
Then, let's rule out China using BM's to take out India's infrastructure right off the bat.

What's now left with China is to use it's current infra + air assets to attack India.

We come back to square one where in PLAAF would have to play offense and IAF + Air defense will be defense for India.
India being the defender can mobilize faster, get more assets in play much quicker than PLAAF can on Indian soil (This is not IAF attacking China, mind you)

Let's all not forget the choke-hold IN can place on Chinese vessels in straits in case of any air attack by PLAAF.

But same strategic bombers can carry Cruise missiles, China has 1000s of those. Will they not have the same affect and not warrant nukeing each other?

PLAAF will be defending their gains on the ground and would not have to go on the offensive, rather they would maintain aerial superiority over their forces on the ground. With some opportunistic bombing runs on entrenched Indian troops.

Indian on the other hand would progressively commit a lot more air assets to attempt to counteract ground losses.

Also is the Indian navy planning to take on the PN, USN, British navy, Arab navies etc for trying to close of goods movement in the Arabian Sea?
this is a non starter I don’t see the Indian navy having a role in this battle.

 

[Avatar]

The sum of all arguments is that war is too costly and not feasible for either side, under ordinary circumstances. IAF is not going to be wiped out so easily and by the time India's military has lost even 10% of its fighting capacity, India will make the decision to align itself with every power interested in containing China.. the conflict will no longer be limited to 3 nations. Even North Korea who fields vintage aircraft will not be so easily wiped out in 10 or 12 hours, because no AF is stupid enough to expose all its assets at the same time. As any air force depletes, they become more defensive and the mission shifts to self preservation. Wars have been won with a good selection of the losing sides air machines still intact or intentionally sabotaged.

The only credible scenario is where Pakistan and China attack in unison and make small territorial gains to negotiate from a position of power. Even in this scenario, India will never cede its territory as long as it has global support and the military capacity to fight back.

The only scenario where I see Pakistan make any credible gains (which is perhaps what the OP desires more than depletion of IAF) is where Pakistani army absolutely dominates and rolls over all of Indias position within a day and secures all the territory that it claims, and then defends these positions with such skill and valor that the Indian forces cannot even gain an inch despite their best attempts for sustained periods of time. In this scenario, India will begin to act extremely aggressively along the lines of something we have never witnessed before, and holding India back without nukes will be impossible.

I hope it is understood that the above scenario is just a fanboys dream and would be nearly impossible to execute given previous track records adjusted with todays weaponry and balance of forces.

 

[Khan vilatey]

The sum of all arguments is that war is too costly and not feasible for either side, under ordinary circumstances. IAF is not going to be wiped out so easily and by the time India's military has lost even 10% of its fighting capacity, India will make the decision to align itself with every power interested in containing China.. the conflict will no longer be limited to 3 nations. Even North Korea who fields vintage aircraft will not be so easily wiped out in 10 or 12 hours, because no AF is stupid enough to expose all its assets at the same time. As any air force depletes, they become more defensive and the mission shifts to self preservation. Wars have been won with a good selection of the losing sides air machines still intact or intentionally sabotaged.

The only credible scenario is where Pakistan and China attack in unison and make small territorial gains to negotiate from a position of power. Even in this scenario, India will never cede its territory as long as it has global support and the military capacity to fight back.

The only scenario where I see Pakistan make any credible gains (which is perhaps what the OP desires more than depletion of IAF) is where Pakistani army absolutely dominates and rolls over all of Indias position within a day and secures all the territory that it claims, and then defends these positions with such skill and valor that the Indian forces cannot even gain an inch despite their best attempts for sustained periods of time. In this scenario, India will begin to act extremely aggressively along the lines of something we have never witnessed before, and holding India back without nukes will be impossible.

I hope it is understood that the above scenario is just a fanboys dream and would be nearly impossible to execute given previous track records adjusted with todays weaponry and balance of forces.

Yes I agree totally, I do think PA will make gains in sai chin and Kargil but that’s about it. If enough Chinese forces are committed on their side India will have trouble finding enough troops to mount an effective assaults in Pakistan proper.

thanks for busting my bubble lol

 

[Avatar]

Yes I agree totally, I do think PA will make gains in sai chin and Kargil but that’s about it. If enough Chinese forces are committed on their side India will have trouble finding enough troops to mount an effective assaults in Pakistan proper.

thanks for busting my bubble lol

India has no interest in mounting unprovoked assaults inside Pakistan because we all know there is no way for us to integrate with the people of Pakistan (and vice versa). The only purpose would be to neutralize nukes but I have to admit that we do not have this capability and even with complete support of US it will be extremely difficult to neutralize all the nukes.

On Indian Soil, Indians will fight with everything they have and vice versa. The build up on both sides is nearly impenetrable. The best solution is to accept LOC as international boundary and stop bickering over Kashmir.

 

[serenity]

This is a good summary that I think is accurate. Not trolling attempt and built from researching this issue for last three months and reading everything both sides said and even foreign information. I think this version of explanation fits all the real information and official disclosures.

India built new camps and sites from 2019 which started encroaching towards China's claimed point which are to Galwan river and Pangong Tso finger 4. These Indian build up went for half a year and then China responded by doing similar build up in 2020 until April when some things started and more confrontations between soldiers on both sides.

These confrontation began happening more and maybe gotten worse. Chinese claims is after May fight where a PLA communication soldier was beaten by Indians in the famous video of many Indian soldiers beating the PLA soldier, PLA captured some Indian soldiers which is the famous photograph of Indians soldiers being tied up. The PLA soldier being beaten was before the PLA capture of IA soldiers in May. However Chinese reports say the communication officer later died due to his injuries days after. At this point according to Chinese side, Indian army suffered only injuries and being captured but no PLA killed any IA soldiers. After the first two military talks, both decide to remove their forward build ups.

This is when things get into a mess and confusion. Chinese side is suggesting this is the June events happened. Commander Babu was forward patrolling and as Chinese PLA moved some stuff away from Galwan side, some Chinese construction crew members were still guarding some left over equipment. At this point Babu decide for himself against IA higher orders and started arguing with the crew and the few soldiers still there with the small construction crew. These construction workers and the few PLA soldiers there eventually gotten into the fight with Babu and his men, then PLA sent backup and more Indians also arrived. The fighting in 15th June started and went into the night for just under one hour where PLA got upper hand and killed Babu and two other IA soldiers. Other IA soldiers had injuries along with many people including PLA side. When it is clear Commanding Officer was killed, IA soldiers some surrendered and these were the 50 captured and some ran away who accidentally fall down cliff and some jumped into the river. The more than 20 other deaths were due to cold weather and injuries. Chinese side did not help those who left but did help the captured ones. Chinese side also suffered injuries and possibly some deaths. Chinese claims a few PLA soldiers later died in hospital from their heavy injuries. The number they are saying is 2 at the moment. However this is internal rumors and some people suggesting that many PLA had serious injuries were treated but 2 so far have succumbed to injuries. Diplomats communicate this to peers but Chinese news and global media do not wish to make situation more intense like already is in India. Saying to India people now officially 2 have died and rest of injured will likely recover is pointless. Indian diplomats know the real answer. Not saying this helps both sides find solutions. Saying this can only present more obstacle for both sides' leaders. Also many from both sides who died have died after fighting maybe a day or more after.

The Indian army did not come to rescue the men who ran away. Many were later found in different places. This is why the death count went up as new men were found until eventually the count is officially at 20 in total where 3 were killed by PLA and rest by accident. The 3 includes the Commanding Officer who PLA hold responsible. He may have been executed by bullet since his actions were also against order of IA in both side's agreement.

This incident made the May agreements very difficult so only now we are back on track from May talks. However both sides view each other in different light now and Indian media has let this get out of hand for Modi and more difficult for Modi to make moves. Opposition also screwing Modi every way even when he does necessary and correct moves now. Result is India is high on trade war talks and only will slowly get back to normal. If they want to go domestic, they should try and China will respond anyway to trade issues and probably will ban investment into India even if India doesn't ban first. War is now 100% impossible. Both sides reach certain agreement but to be honest future development is going to be interesting. Both sides are becoming further enemy status even if this thing in May was small and June was unfortunate.

Buffer zone now created but India has lost more from buffer zone even though China has now moved away from finger 4 and PP14 and PP15. India claimed until finger 8 and all of Galwan. The buffer encroaches more into Indian territory simply due to India's claims much more and further than China's claims. In the previous no man's land, India claims almost all of it while China's claims are to roughly half line. So now with new established buffer zone system, India's total old claims is now out of reach totally for India. China's claims until half way lines at both areas. Back to no-one owning the buffer zone again. Both sides will focus on their long term power again. So the May fighting turned to June fight which turned to regional politics which China is using now, this is by unifying the voices of Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, and maybe in near future even Bhutan. China and India are currently both talking to Bhutan maybe over arunachal pradesh border dispute purposes.

Indian military has totally moved away from LAC which is what China wants. PLA seems to have moved back from those forward point now too. Whatever agreed between us seems to have taken us now back to before India's buildup in 2019. So China in this way achieved objective of making India remove those 2019 build up towards Chinese claimed LAC points which are Galwan river and finger 4. However seems like China is not staying in these forward points now either. They shouldn't stay there anyway as long as India is not close to those points, they have achieved objective. Why should PLA stay forever camping on finger 4 and Galwan river?? Some Indians interpret PLA move away from these two spots as something. Remember this, 2019 Indian positions now gone, new buffer zone created, India moved back even further behind where they were in 2017 on LAC. PLA move away, India starts chilling and relaxing and stop demanding Modi go to war and stop making long term noise. If PLA keep staying there, Congress party will push Modi to war and BJP will lose election. Cause more trouble ongoing. This way is China's dis-engagement offer to Modi which he and the diplomats accept immediately.

 

[Lord Of Gondor]

Interesting (but comical) analysis, especially on Indian elections.
I still do not know why India has not punished those soldiers who slaughtered the PLA inside their territory despite Stronk China asking for punishment and instead decorated the men with CoAS commendations.
A massive humiliation for General Secretary Jinping who unfortunately also heads the PLA.

 

[serenity]

Interesting (but comical) analysis, especially on Indian elections.
I still do not know why India has not punished those soldiers who slaughtered the PLA inside their territory despite Stronk China asking for punishment and instead decorated the men with CoAS commendations.
A massive humiliation for General Secretary Jinping who unfortunately also heads the PLA.

Your jingoism is funny when your side admit 20 IA deaths and China is stronk. Too stronk to challenge. Your side also have not officially said PLA deaths at all because your soldiers couldn't tell if they kill any. Only noise is your media and rumor guys claiming 10 to 100 PLA killed with no evidence and these guys are not official at all. That's the real comedy to the world.

We were roughly equal in 1960, China left you behind in 1970, today the difference between us is comparing shit with gold. You just waste people's time because your time is worth shit anyway. In 10 years time, India will still be good at talking but shit at everything. If a scale, in 1960 we were both 3/10, today China is 8/10 and India is 2/10. So this is why you Indians have to rely on so much noise and jingoism. Whatever you think doesn't change your 2/10 status.

 

[Lord Of Gondor]

You said it right there, China STRONKK!(You deserve a better party position)
Shameful though that Gen Sec Jinping has to face this humiliation from the party's armed wing.

 

[serenity]

You may be proud about fake 100 PLA kill because you feel bitter about 20 IA killed and wish to keep believing and saying it. Fine who cares. Too many imaginations about non-existent realities in the world. What is one more?

Similarly you feel proud PLA show to move back 2km. Where is IA? IA was patrolling and claiming up to finger 8 and now cannot come into even finger 1 as per our agreement and buffer zone. Same situation with Galwan. IA used to patrol up to China's recognized border while China only patrolled to its claim on pp14/15. Now IA cannot patrol the valley anymore. PLA isn't there either sure but this start with India coming closer and closer with helipads and buildings and now end with all those gone and China coming and going as we want.

You said it right there, China STRONKK!(You deserve a better party position)
Shameful though that Gen Sec Jinping has to face this humiliation from the party's armed wing.

Yes CCP pay me so well. This is so fun.

 

[LeGenD]

@Lord Of Gondor

Do not flamebait.

@serenity

Deep and rich insight. Appreciated.

Please do not feed flamebaiting.