Hyperpower China- Pakistan?

[Indus Pakistan]

The 19th century was defined by Britain, the 20th century was defined by USA and I believe the 21 century is going to be defined by China. The world is going to look lot differantby end of this century then it did at the dawn of this century.

I do not think USA is going to go down. The fundamentals of US are strong - large, highly educated labour force, a extremely resource rich land and the aggregate inertia of century of innovation. So this thread is not one of those silly 'end of super power' doomsday celebrations.

However I feel China will toward the later half of this century become a 'hyperpower'. When and there is no question about this, the only questions how long, China's per capita reaches average of Western Europe or say like Spain the effect of that being multiplied by 1.3 billion population of China will create a new phenomenon. A country whose GDP will be so large that it will eclipse even the sole superpower USA. Thus the term hyperpower.

US will remain the superpower just that we will have a entrant that is so large that it's shadow will even make US reduced in it's influence in the world. I reiterate this not to say US will go the way USSR went. Like I said earlier US will continue to be significant world player for a long time.

This increasing will lead to a changing world order. I think it will offer Pakistan unbounded oppurtunities. If we play it smart Pakistan could ride 'the wave' like most if Europe has done on the back of USA. Although Pakistan also benefited from USA but the relationship between us and US never reached maturity not because of US infamy or our failure. I think we simply were too far from USA.

However in the case of China it is a differant story. We share a border with them. I think as China rises the wave will lift us up as well as long as we play smart and 'ride' the way. I want people's inputs on what the future holds, the oppurtunities and what we can do to maximise the impending rise of the the 'hyperpower'.

Just a note about relations between states. I find it frankly tedious and childish when people talk about interstate relationships like they are in nursery playground. States are legal entities and operate with self interest as the engine behind their foreign policy. In other words there is no fre lunch and no room for emotionalism. Words like 'brother', 'backstabbed', 'not fair' are ridicalous. Even if they are used these should be taken as diplomatic oxymorons. The real business of running countries requires cool heads with Machiavellian self interest governing everything.

The Chinese are in my view the masters of this statecraft. Their ancient culture has genius and wisdom. Without a doubt it these qualities that will take China to hyperpower status. You can see for example despite how well they are doing they are so modest. Chinese have probably built more miles of roads in one year then India, Pakistan combined have done in 20 years yet you don't se the bluster or bragging that is so characteristic of South Asia.

Consider the fact that the only country on the planet that will at some point have the military capacity to challenge USA yet notice the Chinese are so apologetic in their stance toward USA. Compare that with us in Pakistan. We get 17 F-16s bought on grants from USA and some of our people want to flex muscles and posture the sole superpower like they are on a field with some Lahori wrestlers.

Anyway lets have look at what rise of the hyperpower will do to the region and what we can do in Pakistan to max out our advantage.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Well, China is still a developing country, we still have a long road ahead of us. And China's goal is not to achieve global hegemony/leadership like America currently has.

In fact our official policy is: "Never seek hegemony". This is for practical reasons, since no matter how powerful we become, there will always be others (USA/Russia/Europe/etc.) who will be able to balance us. So there is no practical way we could be a uni-polar superpower like America currently is, and becoming the "world policeman" is not a desirable goal in any case.

As for the other point, Pakistan will be one country that can benefit hugely from China's development in the coming decades.

China is currently moving away from a domestic investment-driven economic model, towards a more balanced model of consumption-driven development. The result is that huge amounts of Chinese investments are going to start flowing overseas instead, and Pakistan is a prime investment destination for us (as we have already seen).

This presents a tremendous opportunity for Pakistan. They can leverage this investment, like we did in the past few decades, to create a strong engine of economic growth.

Pakistan is a country with a tremendous amount of economic potential. It has the 6th largest population on Earth, favorable demographics, and a highly educated middle class. The only bottleneck right now seems to be a political one. Pakistan needs their own Deng Xiaoping to trigger their next phase of economic development.

 

[Hell hound]

my thoughts are that we should play this a little safe.i mean keep good relation with all powers ie USA, china, Europe, Russia and GCC as putting all eggs in one basket is always risky.
get investment from every country to mitigate the threat of excessive influence of anyone on us, improve our image on international level and this will also improve the quality of investment projects.i believe with extermination of these talidogs we will be able to get investment from anyone.
and last thing we need to do to get maximum out of these investment is improve our education infrastructure we should be the one leading these project from root to top level.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Well, China is still a developing country, we still have a long road ahead of us. And China's goal is not to achieve global hegemony/leadership like America currently has.

In that sentance you demonstrate the greatness of your nation. The modesty and pragmatism. Of all the things I am hoping that some of this will rub on my people. The fact is most Pakistani's look upto China and I am excited at the prospect that they may learn some of your wisdom.

* The most valuable secret Pakistan can learn from you is the quiet but focussed attention on one thing, economic development of your country. Everythinmg else is secondary.

In fact our official policy is: "Never seek hegemony". This is for practical reasons, since no matter how powerful we become, there will always be others (USA/Russia/Europe/etc.) who will be able to balance us. So there is no practical way we could be a uni-polar superpower like America currently is, and becoming the "world policeman" is not a desirable goal in any case.

This again is words of wisdom. Your are not seeking hegemony however you seek economic development. Once you achieve that which is certain, the only question is how long and not if. When that happens you will be a hyperpower that will dwarf everything. Your giant shadow will humble everybody. Whether people call your shadow hegemony will be matter of interpretation. I suspect in New Delhi they might feel some what calmed by your shadow.

People don't seek redress from the weak. People go to the strong for help or justice. That is a role that you don't seek but comes with power whether you choose to call that 'world policeman' is asides.

As for the other point, Pakistan will be one country that can benefit hugely from China's development in the coming decades.

This is without a doubt. Much like Eastern Europe or even the poor Southern Europe was lifted up by the tidal wave created by the impetus of USA I expect Pakistan to benefit in the same way from China providing we get our act togather. Of course we will continue to keep warm relations with USA and UK/Europe. We have long historical links with them and we can't sever them and neither should we think of doing so.

China is currently moving away from a domestic investment-driven economic model, towards a more balanced model of consumption-driven development. The result is that huge amounts of Chinese investment are going to start flowing overseas instead, and Pakistan is a prime investment destination for us (as we have already seen).

This is without doubt and offers great possibility and oppurtunity for Pakistan. I can only hope we can use this to build up a momentum that can carry us forward.

Pakistan is a country with a tremendous amount of economic potential. It has the 6th largest population on Earth, favorable demographics, and a highly educated middle class. The only bottleneck right now seems to be a political one. Pakistan needs their own Deng Xiaoping to trigger their next phase of economic development.

Indeed. i will like to look at this later what is our weakness and cause of our failure. also see how China could help in overcoming our problems most of them of our own making. I think the most valuable thing China has is for us to look at how you deal with issues and if we can learn from you we indeed will make progress.

 

[nForce]

@Atanz

Interesting read that is, indeed.
I have a few brief points :

1. I do believe the goal should be prosperity and not super/hyper power. The same goes for India as well. The word power makes me feel like a sense of military jingoism is present or part of that goal. Well, that is expensive, costly and detrimental in the long run. The goal should be economic a social prosperity, making the country and thereby the World a better place to live in.

2. China and Pakistan combined is one-sixth of global population. That's a huge market. But the regulations for both the countries differ by huge margin. One of the most important steps would be unified economic policies. Your thoughts on that ?

3. Currency and perhaps more important, exchange rate is an issue. If that difference exists then business entities will prefer to do business separately for the simplicity. Single currency perhaps ?

4. External market is important, but far more important is internal one. One has to ensure that internal trade goes on smoothly. Two basic requirements there, proper distribution networks and of course common currency.

5.Have you considered what the Chinese intentions are ? Forget what the forum members talk about, that may not be the exact idea.

6. Have you thought about the possibility that this may be another story of piggybacking another bigger power.
Pakistan tried that starting back in the 60s with US, with the hope for economic progress. Well, within two years you had the U-2 spy plane crisis, thus alienating another super power of the time for ever. What gradually followed after that is history.
The point is, more or less same trend can be noticed in Pakistan's engagement with China. The bigger power comes with a package and Pakistan gives everything at its disposal, including the most important thing, the permission to use the land unconditionally.
Owing to our history with the British, we are a little conservative about that.

I would very much like to hear about your thoughts on these points.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

@nForce First of all thank you. I appreciate positive comments. I come to this forum to have intelligent debate but too often I end up side tracked into just silliness. It is a weakness of mine. The more tired I am, the more procivity to jump in with the idiots here.

Anyway I will address the points you made tommorow. I think we are going to go through profound change and that includes India. This entire region is going to look differant in few decades. Frankly i wish we could sort out the Kashmir issue but that is for another thread.

When I say hyperpower I am not thinking like lot of the kids here, and counting number of tanks or guns. I mean the gross economic power. That is what will make China a hyperpower. Of course should India achieve say $15k GDP multiply that with 1.3 billion and you also will be hyperpower. It is just plain maths.

The main thing I am looking forward to is the possibility of change in Pakistani mindset. The Pakistani mind has been corroded by religious ritualism and dogma to the point where it hinders economic progress or for that matter any progress. I am hoping this is where China could be a example that obliges us to temper the illogical delusional grandeaur of wanton religiousity.

 

[Shamain]

American literacy rates have been declining for over a past decade now.

 

[nForce]

@nForce First of all thank you. I appreciate positive comments. I come to this forum to have intelligent debate but too often I end up side tracked into just silliness. It is a weakness of mine. The more tired I am, the more procivity to jump in with the idiots here.

Anyway I will address the points you made tommorow. I think we are going to go through profound change and that includes India. This entire region is going to look differant in few decades. Frankly i wish we could sort out the Kashmir issue but that is for another thread.

When I say hyperpower I am not thinking like lot of the kids here, and counting number of tanks or guns. I mean the gross economic power. That is what will make China a hyperpower. Of course should India achieve say $15k GDP multiply that with 1.3 billion and you also will be hyperpower. It is just plain maths.

The main thing I am looking forward to is the possibility of change in Pakistani mindset. The Pakistani mind has been corroded by religious ritualism and dogma to the point where it hinders economic progress or for that matter any progress. I am hoping this is where China could be a example that obliges us to temper the illogical delusional grandeaur of wanton religiousity.

Eagerly waiting for your answer.
And yes.. that Kashmir thing is a thorn for both of us. It is not getting resolved because nobody on the either side wants to commit a political and thereby a literal suicide by cutting some slack there. As simple as that. Perhaps we have to learn to keep it aside when we are talking about other topics.

 

[OrionHunter]

The point is, more or less same trend can be noticed in Pakistan's engagement with China. The bigger power comes with a package and Pakistan gives everything at its disposal, including the most important thing, the permission to use the land unconditionally.

I would very much like to hear about your thoughts on these points.

Economic cooperation between China and Pakistan seems to be a win-win situation for both countries. For Pakistan it would mean development of infrastructure and most importantly energy generation that will improve Pakistan's industrial capacity.

For China, the Kashgar - Gwadar highway will save China time and 12,000km for moving goods to the Persian Gulf. The spin offs from this project will be advantageous for Pakistan too.

However, the entire stretch will be under the control of the Chinese and that is a dangerous precedent. 11,000 Chinese have already settled in GB for this project which as some reports suggest, have been declared restricted areas. In the long run, this could turn out to be an embarrassment to Pakistan's polity. It will be near impossible to retrieve the situation. Would the writ of the Pakistani state run in these areas occupied by the Chinese?

 

[AshishDelhi]

American literacy rates have been declining for over a past decade now.

Economic cooperation between China and Pakistan seems to be a win-win situation for both countries. For Pakistan it would mean development of infrastructure and most importantly energy generation that will improve Pakistan's industrial capacity.

For China, the Kashgar - Gwadar highway will save China time and 12,000km for moving goods to the Persian Gulf. The spin offs from this project will be advantageous for Pakistan too.

However, the entire stretch will be under the control of the Chinese and that is a dangerous precedent. 11,000 Chinese have already settled in GB for this project which as some reports suggest, have been declared restricted areas. In the long run, this could turn out to be an embarrassment to Pakistan's polity. It will be near impossible to retrieve the situation. Would the writ of the Pakistani state run in these areas occupied by the Chinese?

How much money Pakistan gets from that highway transport. What are the details of agreement. Does anyone know.

 

[Sasquatch]

I've seen the argument people claim that China will abandon Pakistan like the US did that's not true, Pakistan bordering China, Pakistan is China's gate to the Arabian sea, Pakistan is China's access to bypass the Malacca Strait for those reasons China will never throw Pakistan away.

 

[Shamain]

I've seen the argument people claim that China will abandon Pakistan like the US did that's not true, Pakistan bordering China, Pakistan is China's gate to the Arabian sea, Pakistan is China's access to bypass the Malacca Strait for those reasons China will never throw Pakistan away.

Just answe me one question. If and when gwadar port gets operational. And chinas energy supply lines will be opened thru pakistan.how much percentage of energy supplies will China bring through Pakistan and how much through Malacca and lombosk?

 

[OrionHunter]

I've seen the argument people claim that China will abandon Pakistan like the US did that's not true, Pakistan bordering China, Pakistan is China's gate to the Arabian sea, Pakistan is China's access to bypass the Malacca Strait for those reasons China will never throw Pakistan away.

You are spot on. In this big bad world of geopolitics, there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests. And Pakistan fits the bill perfectly where China's own interests are concerned.

> Pakistan protects its Southern flank against India.
> Uses Pakistan as a bulwark against India.
> Uses Pakistan to try and prevent India competing economically with China.
> Uses Pakistan as a gateway to the Middle East through Gwadar thus saving it time and billions of dollars in transportation costs.
> Aims to upgrade Gwadar into a PLAAN naval base to dominate the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian sea.

So, no. China will not abandon Pakistan at least in the foreseeable future as long as it is in China's supreme national interest - economically as well as militarily. Most Pakistanis know they are being used, but.......is there any alternative? Without China where would they be?

 

[Indian_Devil]

I dont think that the word "hyperpower" can really describe china's econonic poetential, rather we should invent much stronger word.

 

[Srinivas]

When Japanese economy started rolling every one thought Japan will eclipse USA economy. Contrary thing happened Japanese economy become stagnant for almost 20 years now.

The same thing is going to happen China and the signs are there.

1) Rising wages
2) Aging populations
3) Housing bubble
4) Deceasing GDP growth.

The predictions may project China to be an economic giant within 20 to 30 years eclipsing USA but the reality may be completely different.

Chinese followed the same model of Japanese, the results will be the same.