How much of Pakistan do the Taliban actually control

[frashid30@hotmail.com]

This is a question i would like to ask my pakistani brothers and sisters?

Ive heard in thewestern press anything from 20 to 70% of pakistans territory.
Pakistan is a huge country, Can the taliban which number about 60,000 really controll such a huge area of land. The 60,000 figure comes from a BBC report and i feel would be about ok considering the northern areas have only a population of 5million.

Ideally pakistanis from the northwest of pakistan would be the best ones to answer the question.

Thankyou brothers and i pray for a swift victory over the kaffir taleban.

 

[Awesome]

This is a question i would like to ask my pakistani brothers and sisters?

Ive heard in thewestern press anything from 20 to 70% of pakistans territory.
Pakistan is a huge country, Can the taliban which number about 60,000 really controll such a huge area of land. The 60,000 figure comes from a BBC report and i feel would be about ok considering the northern areas have only a population of 5million.

Ideally pakistanis from the northwest of pakistan would be the best ones to answer the question.

Thankyou brothers and i pray for a swift victory over the kaffir taleban.

More like 1 to 2%? FATA?

Haven't done any ratios, but that seems like it.

And Amen to that! A speedy victory over the Taliban!

 

[Kharian_Beast]

A lot less than what they control in their source of origin (hint : it's a neighbouring country).

Problem is no one really knows how much, and the western press would be the last source I would trust in answering this specific question.

Bottom line, even 5 acres is too much for my tastes.

 

[Machoman]

.5 % only.

 

[Elmo]

This is a question i would like to ask my pakistani brothers and sisters?

Ive heard in thewestern press anything from 20 to 70% of pakistans territory.
Pakistan is a huge country, Can the taliban which number about 60,000 really controll such a huge area of land. The 60,000 figure comes from a BBC report and i feel would be about ok considering the northern areas have only a population of 5million.

Ideally pakistanis from the northwest of pakistan would be the best ones to answer the question.

Thankyou brothers and i pray for a swift victory over the kaffir taleban.

North and South Waziristan, Bajaur & Mohmand (in FATA) and Malakand Division (NWFP, this includes Swat district and adjoining areas) are completely under the control of the Taliban. In Khyber, Orakzai and Kurram agencies they have made in-roads but not taken over completely. 70 per cent is a gross over-estimation. Also think of their control not in terms of area but in administrative units. That will give you a clearer picture.

Whose report is it on BBC, can you provide a link?

Furthermore, do clarify what you mean by "northern areas" — the northwestern province or the Northern Areas (which comprise of Hunza etc). Five million will probably be referring to the Northern Areas which are peaceful, it's too low a population count of the province.

 

[Cheetah786]

This is a question i would like to ask my pakistani brothers and sisters?

Ive heard in thewestern press anything from 20 to 70% of pakistans territory.
Pakistan is a huge country, Can the taliban which number about 60,000 really controll such a huge area of land. The 60,000 figure comes from a BBC report and i feel would be about ok considering the northern areas have only a population of 5million.

Ideally pakistanis from the northwest of pakistan would be the best ones to answer the question.

Thankyou brothers and i pray for a swift victory over the kaffir taleban.

Here is view of one of the people from FATA AREA then u can decide how much they control.And if these cowards ever come to the cities where they cant wear burqas or hide in caves only thing left of them will be hole in the ground.

Mohammad Akram (not his real name) from Mansehra, another town some 250km (155 miles) north-west of here, says he works nearby and dropped in to see what the maulana looked like.

"I was wondering what kind of a man would claim to fight for Islam and then try to escape in a burka [a head-to-toe gown with a veil worn by women]," he said after making me promise I would not use his real name or print his photo.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8004584.stm

 

[AchtungSpitfire]

This should be helpful for those not familiar with the political geography of these areas.

 

[Munir]

This should be helpful for those not familiar with the political geography of these areas.

Hardly reliable info...

 

[AchtungSpitfire]

Hardly reliable info...

Care to elaborate?

 

[S-2]

"A lot less than what they control in their source of origin (hint : it's a neighbouring country)."

If a fair man you'll recognize that the taliban don't CONTROL anything in Afghanistan. CONTROL comes with a challenge, test, and affirmation of primacy. Until tested, you don't know the extent of control at all. NATO has shown neither the fear nor the inability to fight and defeat the taliban over and over and over and...

Where we meet, it's no contest and that really seems indisputed by anybody.

As such, in much of Afghanistan the land is empty. In other areas, the taliban presence is truly minimal. The ICOS map for Afghanistan 2008 indicates a range in which the taliban have a permanent presence. By itself, this doesn't constitute control and a fair man would acknowledge that. Further, the report SPECIFIES the incidence of violence and the degree of severity-

ICOS Afghanistan 2008

Allow a moment for the map to load.

To date, the only area of consequence that's been undisturbed, utterly, is the areas south of the town of Garmsir in Helmand. That's roughly half of Helmand into which the British (until two weeks ago) had NEVER ventured. EVER.

Is it surprising that 60% of Afghanistan's opium is grown right there? To be fair, they've a modest force and have been fully engaged around Sangin, Lashkar Gal, Musa Qala, and Garmsir town but there's been little doubt in ISAF that the areas south of Garmsir all the way south to the Pakistani border represent a target-rich environment.

That's slated to change this spring, summer, and fall. We'll see what happens but the British MoD has been publishing some interesting stories of reconnaissance-in-force operations down there that have had some astounding contacts, great success, and suggest lovely opportunities for the near future.

After than, there are stretches of Nimroz and Farah that demand attention. 3/8 Marines are there now for the first time and that, too, will see some changes.

We'll let you guys know, of course, should we bump into an BLA training camps run by the Indian Army as we get close to the border.

RAW is everywhere.

Hope that helps with the control thingy. I really, really like the ICOS map for what it tells and hope that you'll actually view it closely for it's merits. In conjunction with the 2008 UNODC report on Afghan opium I believe that they are very revealing tools.

Thanks.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

North and South Waziristan, Bajaur & Mohmand (in FATA) and Malakand Division (NWFP, this includes Swat district and adjoining areas) are completely under the control of the Taliban. In Khyber, Orakzai and Kurram agencies they have made in-roads but not taken over completely. 70 per cent is a gross over-estimation. Also think of their control not in terms of area but in administrative units. That will give you a clearer picture.

Whose report is it on BBC, can you provide a link?

Furthermore, do clarify what you mean by "northern areas" — the northwestern province or the Northern Areas (which comprise of Hunza etc). Five million will probably be referring to the Northern Areas which are peaceful, it's too low a population count of the province.

Mostly agree. However, they have largely been chased out of Bajaur and Mohmand (though not eliminated) so I would put those two agencies in the 'Khyber category'.

None of the affected agencies (or for that matter some of the settled districts) will really move out of the 'Khyber category' so long as S&N Waziristan remain outside government writ, and the TTP-S does not lay down arms.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Care to elaborate?

Roggio's pretty alarmist and anti-Pakistan, or more specifically anti-Pakistan Military.

 

[S-2]

Bill Roggio, on the whole, has done an excellent job with his blogs. He is biased, certainly, but his blogs aren't heavily disputed by guys I trust and endorsed by some for what that's worth. Consequently I think you've been more than a little bit unfair to him.

On a tangent, do or have you ever read any of Michael Yon's stuff or Ghosts of Alexander?

To the point, aside from ad hominem aspersions, to what would you object in the map's assessment and why, if you wouldn't mind? I know that I'm unconvinced about Tariq Khan's claims for Bajaur myself. I also know that Konar, as seemingly always, remains very, very busy. Specifically our friend the Korengal valley. We've gone from two companies in Konar in six platoon COPs to sixteen platoons (nearly two battalions).

As to the map, Chitral has been quiet but do we know why? Can you honestly assert that anybody knows what's going on up there? I've heard rumors that OBL may be there and it is my preferred locale were I him. I also understand that Chitral includes the primary passes used by the uzbeks and chechans who come to fight. Their access seems unimpeded, no?

Would you feel safe going to Chitral? I think that it's closed, is it not, to even Pakistani citizens? Anyway, that would be one area of possible dispute. Perhaps others?

In any case, I'll look forward to your thoughts.

Thanks.

 

[AchtungSpitfire]

Roggio's pretty alarmist and anti-Pakistan, or more specifically anti-Pakistan Military.

Well for the sake of argument & granting that premise, what area's you would contest or dispute?

Moreover, isn't that a self defeating exercise with respect to the overriding issue at hand? Sugar coating a reality that the Taliban i.e any Anti-Pakistani order exists on the soil of Pakistan should be incensing enough.

FTR, I don't consider the people behind LWJ to have any kind of bias with respect to Pakistan because that would be inherently self-defeating. A failed Pakistan is NOT in our self interest. That should be beyond obvious by now.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

He is biased, certainly, but his blogs aren't heavily disputed by guys I trust and endorsed by some for what that's worth.

How on earth can you accept bias on one side and then suggest that you have faith in people who trust and endorse his biased opinion?

He is heavily biased, to the point of paranoia, against the PA, and we illustrated that with some of his reporting on the PA a while back.

I expounded upon what my opinion of the map was in my response to Elmo.

Access is pretty much unimpeded to everyone across the Durand, Chitral is hardly unique for that. Chitral could be heavily influenced, or maybe as you said primarily a passage. I can't say I am familiar with it at all.

The geography of Chitral from Wiki makes it appear more of a 'bottleneck' and 'dead end' in terms of staging militant attacks, but this is from a cursory glance.

The easiest access to Chitral is in the southwest along the Chitral/Kunar valley towards Jalalabad. This route is open all year and provides direct access to Kabul. However the Pakistan–Afghanistan border (Durand Line) prevents this being used as an internal route to Peshawar and the south. The other routes are over mountain passes. To the south, the Lowari Pass (3,200 m or 10,499 ft) leads 365 km (227 mi) to Peshawar. In the north, the easiest route during summer runs over the Broghol Pass (3,798 m or 12,460 ft) to Afghanistan's Wakhan Corridor, however during winter this route is usually closed. To the east, there is a 405 km (252 mi) route to Gilgit over the 3,719 m (12,201 ft) Shandur Pass. And in the west, the Dorah Pass provides an additional route to Afghanistan. The territory is home to rare falcons and the snow leopard, and is cut off by snow from the rest of the country for six months a year, a problem soon to be relieved by the completion of the Lowari Tunnel which will reduce transit time to Chitral as well as allow the district to be connected to the rest of the country even during the cold winter months.