How Much is Iran’s Economy Recovering?

[scythian500]

@FaujHistorian @Serpentine
100$ is the price shown on the budget plan(and was expected to be earned), in which government would still have deficit.
135$ is the price which will make the budget deficit as zero.

Anyway, I am sure the deficit would be huge in this fiscal year, since the expected collected tax is ridiculously high. In addition to oil price drops, deficit would be really huge.

Oil price never been so high as $135 ... It is not what Iran needs to have a ZERO deficit. since 2012 all this equations collapsed as Iran has no oil income to be received due to sanctions. It is only held as CREDIT (those export dollars) so government can print IRR with no consequences. In 1392 and 1393 budget years (nearly 2013 and 2014) Iranian budget was secured through NON-Cruide oil exports + some $35 to 40 billlions of TAX secured. Iranian government expenses has reduced once by almost %30 (re-designed) and then again in 2 months from now Government will go to parliament to MODIFY the budget again. There will be no dificits although Government forced to cut the budget of some of its sub-budget eaters. To my eyes, opposite to what Ahmadi nejad office has done to Iranian wealth, Mr. Rouhani acts pretty smart and this is exactly why despite back breaking RAYANEH , his government still has some room to evade all this oil price decrease.

 

[dil_dil]

You are absolutely right in your approach. Although, +50 billion USD imports are a part of GDP and attributes to national wealth and income. 50 billion is almost nothing comparing to a 1.244 billion dollars economy.

Iran GDP is around $400 billion as of 2014.

 

[scythian500]

The most stupid post I have ever read.

OEC: Iran (IRN) Profile of Exports, Imports and Trade Partners

This link that you posted is for 2012 estimation and it is actually statistics of 2011 that reflected in 2012. Since then Iranian economy has undergone huge changes. The total budget shrinked in a way that even $35 billion petrochemical and high value extracts exports has a huge share of +%70 in Iranian budget.
Once more, Iranian GDP is $1.244 Billion (PPP) and nearly $570 Billion (exchange rate which is not a correct number to be based as Iranian expenses are in IRR mostly and the rate doesn,t follow a rational market trend). All Iranian Gov budget + imports + exports + all produced from industry, services and agri + a few more items = GDP

The oil revenues and share of Iranian economy is less than %5 today and was around %10 a few years ago. you can do the math... 1.244 billionns Vs some 40 Billions of oil exports... even with the obsolete EXCHANGE RATE camparision it is still less than %7 or 8 of all GDP...

 

[FaujHistorian]

You are absolutely right in your approach. Although, +50 billion USD imports are a part of GDP and attributes to national wealth and income. 50 billion is almost nothing comparing to a 1.244 billion dollars economy.

Agha Jaan

you are an ecconomic professional.

Then you must realize that GDP is more suitable for long term economic planning and forecasts (5-10+ years.)

While yearly budget, net import, net export are much better to see tactical and operational planning (1-10 years)

So please make reference to GDP when talking about years 2024 and beyond

From 2014 to 2023, look at more precise numbers.


When you go shopping in the store tomorrow, you cannot pay for things by telling the shopkeeper that you have an earning potential of 1 million dollars.

No Agha.

you will pay him based on what money you have in YOUR wallet.

And the money in your wallet is dependent on your salary this month (and not your accumulated salary over life time).

Hope you see the diff


shukriya.

 

[scythian500]

Iran Export Profile

With 61.22% as Total Export and Oil sector making it upto 79%,do the math yourself

[/QUOTE

I refer you to my other previous posts regarding the statistics and we are not talking about share of Crude Oil Exports as a percentage of EXPORTS... we are talking about Crude oil as share of economy..and this statistic is probably for ex- 2013 era

 

[scythian500]

Agha Jaan

you are an ecconomic professional.

Then you must realize that GDP is more suitable for long term economic planning and forecasts (5-10+ years.)

While yearly budget, net import, net export are much better to see tactical and operational planning (1-10 years)

So please make reference to GDP when talking about years 2024 and beyond

From 2014 to 2023, look at more precise numbers.


When you go shopping in the store tomorrow, you cannot pay for things by telling the shopkeeper that you have an earning potential of 1 million dollars.

No Agha.

you will pay him based on what money you have in YOUR wallet.

And the money in your wallet is dependent on your salary this month (and not your accumulated salary over life time).

Hope you see the diff


shukriya.

You are right brother. And the title of this thread is IS IRANIAN ECONOMY RECOVERING? This only can be measured by GDP growth which is known in public minds as Economic Growth... As you can see after Iran losing the ability to export crude oil, Iran actually started to recover from -%5.8 GDP growth 2 years ago to as good as +%3.8 this year (2014).. and the common sense and rules in economic ranking doesn,t apply to Iran for now as it is under full scale sanctions. Since the central bank and crude oil sanctions Iranian economy started automatically to initiate growth based on IRR and not export dollars. We have a protocol among economists in this special situation. We wait 3 to 5 years so the growth rate finds it ROUTE and TREND and when the clouds are scattered then we can re-evaluate the rates... But as far as I can see from numbers in Iran today and the share of each element in Iranian new style economy, I can say, even if we have no crude exports today, then the overall Iranian economy would probably shrink only by %15 in a course of 3 to 5 years from now. Furthermore, due to lack of clear statistics due to Iranian economy actions to acquire what she needs from black market or exports that are not registered due to sanctions, there was and still is a common believe among foreign observers that REAL IRANIAN ECONOMY is at least %30 more than what we see in numbers... This believe comes from all the bonyads holdings, all false flag imports and exports, under gorund businesses not recognized by statistics and other military and financial trades Iran has with its sub-satellite states or groups

 

[scythian500]

Iran GDP is around $400 billion as of 2014.

It was nearly 570 Billions in 2012 if it shrinks by 5.8 percents once then it only shrank by 33 billions in exchange rate. If you are familiar with economics then you know well that Exchange rate is only referable when you want to compare two NORMAL economies. Iran is not in NORMAL state for years now. And when you talk of Gross Domestic Products it means the physical or statistically countable wealth produced in one specific country or state. When for example a Small family car produced in Iran worth 25 million Tomans that with unofficial exchange rate worth $7690 and every Iranian can buy it with this price, you can,t count it as only 7690 dollars in GDP as the SAME car in all other countries worth more than 15000 to 18000. Or I buy a 500g bread nearly 15 cents or a litter of gasoline nearly 20 cents a litter... while the same commodity is worth $1 and $1.2 respectively (at least). This is why when economists wanna measure an economy real strength and greatness they use GDP per purchasing parity. Other than this all what you say is absolutely right my kind and nice brother

 

[dil_dil]

It was nearly 570 Billions in 2012 if it shrinks by 5.8 percents once then it only shrank by 33 billions in exchange rate. If you are familiar with economics then you know well that Exchange rate is only referable when you want to compare two NORMAL economies. Iran is not in NORMAL state for years now. And when you talk of Gross Domestic Products it means the physical or statistically countable wealth produced in one specific country or state. When for example a Small family car produced in Iran worth 25 million Tomans that with unofficial exchange rate worth $7690 and every Iranian can buy it with this price, you can,t count it as only 7690 dollars in GDP as the SAME car in all other countries worth more than 15000 to 18000. Or I buy a 500g bread nearly 15 cents or a litter of gasoline nearly 20 cents a litter... while the same commodity is worth $1 and $1.2 respectively (at least). This is why when economists wanna measure an economy real strength and greatness they use GDP per purchasing parity. Other than this all what you say is absolutely right my kind and nice brother

In nominal terms GDP is around $400 billion and PPP over $1.2 trillion according to IMF. This has to with exchange rate which toke a hit after latest sanctions.

 

[FaujHistorian]

You are right brother. And the title of this thread is IS IRANIAN ECONOMY RECOVERING? This only can be measured by GDP growth which is known in public minds as Economic Growth... As you can see after Iran losing the ability to export crude oil, Iran actually started to recover from -%5.8 GDP growth 2 years ago to as good as +%3.8 this year (2014).. and the common sense and rules in economic ranking doesn,t apply to Iran for now as it is under full scale sanctions. Since the central bank and crude oil sanctions Iranian economy started automatically to initiate growth based on IRR and not export dollars. We have a protocol among economists in this special situation. We wait 3 to 5 years so the growth rate finds it ROUTE and TREND and when the clouds are scattered then we can re-evaluate the rates... But as far as I can see from numbers in Iran today and the share of each element in Iranian new style economy, I can say, even if we have no crude exports today, then the overall Iranian economy would probably shrink only by %15 in a course of 3 to 5 years from now. Furthermore, due to lack of clear statistics due to Iranian economy actions to acquire what she needs from black market or exports that are not registered due to sanctions, there was and still is a common believe among foreign observers that REAL IRANIAN ECONOMY is at least %30 more than what we see in numbers... This believe comes from all the bonyads holdings, all false flag imports and exports, under gorund businesses not recognized by statistics and other military and financial trades Iran has with its sub-satellite states or groups

Agha Jaan

This is all well. But I respectfully disagree with your analysis.

Here is why?


There are two groups of countries in the world.

1. Small group with "hard currency". (US, UK, EU)
2. The rest who have "soft currency".


Group #1 will always set rules of the play.

Group #2 has to follow those rules. And if they do not, they are labeled as "axis of evil" and then Group#2 masses suffer.

Why? Because Group #2 needs hard currency to by milk, sugar, petrol, tea, wheat, in order to make gahwa and bake bread.

No hard currency, no gahwa and no bread.

Bureaucrats like you Agha, crunch numbers to keep the leaders comfy and ordinary masses in the dark.

Sadly.

 

[FaujHistorian]

In nominal terms GDP is around $400 billion and PPP over $1.2 trillion according to IMF. This has to with exchange rate which toke a hit after latest sanctions.

For ordinary masses, GDP numbers are useless.

What really matters for you and I? "monthly/yearly budget in dollars of our countries", income dollars vs. dollars to spend.

That's all.

Our governments do all sorts of tricks and print worthless Ryals and Rupees by the trillions. But in the end what matters is very very very very very very simple.

--- Net income/year in Dollars/Euors/pounds (hard currency) of a country
--- Net expenses/year in Dollars/Euors/pounds (hard currency) of a country

If this net income in hard currency is more than net expense in hard currency (China, S, Korea) then economy of that country is good.


if on the other hand, the country is in dog $Hit economically, morally, physically, spiritually etc. , if net expenses in hard currency is more than net income in hard currency (Iran, Pakistan and every damned 3rd worlder)


Let's keep this discussion where it really matters. Yes.

Thank you.

 

[SrNair]

What is the current GDP of Iran ?
Does it actually shrink after the sanctions?
@haman10 @kollang @SOHEIL and others.

 

[FaujHistorian]

What is the current GDP of Iran ?
Does it actually shrink after the sanctions?
@haman10 @kollang @SOHEIL and others.

Sr. Nair

you can find it via two clicks on google. Yes quicker than posting this question on PDF. Really.

All those charts show the following.


Shrink - Shrank - Shrunk.

yes in all three tenses.

 

[SrNair]

Sr. Nair

you can find it via two clicks on google. Yes quicker than posting this question on PDF. Really.

Fauj Bhai .
Need to take effort because now I am using my mobile.Searching would be a arrogant job.
But I got an answer 400 billion$ and 1.2 trillion in PPP.

 

[FaujHistorian]

Fauj Bhai .
Need to take effort because now I am using my mobile.Searching would be a arrogant job.
But I got an answer 400 billion$ and 1.2 trillion in PPP.

There is a lot of haira phaire (monkey business) in those numbers.

Dare I say.

 

[SrNair]

There is a lot of haira phaire (monkey business) in those numbers.

Dare I say.

You mean there is a lot of manipulation in that figures?
If yes then what would be their real GDP according to your calculations?