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How India's growth will outpace China's - The Economist

I think there has been 9 Chinese Nobel Prize winners, just none from Mainland China.

Dont think it has as much to do with racism as lack of freedom

List of Chinese Nobel Prize Laureates

With over a billion people, native Chinese do not win Scientific Nobel Prizes for the same reasons that Arabs living under Islam do not win Scientific Nobel Prizes. As for Chinese or Arabs who win Nobel Prizes in Literature, they do not live in America but they are usually despised and hated by their native countries. In the case of Gao, the Chinese government officially regards him as an exiled dissident, and all of his works are banned. In the case of the Egyptian Naguib Mahfouz who died this year, he was attacked by Muslims for his writings.

So when I said that Islam was holding back scientific progress, it applies equally to the Chinese government. It applied as well to the Soviets in the past era. Religion or Governments that deny freedom and liberty just do not create anything. They can steal it, or buy it, but they cannot create it.
List of Chinese Nobel Prize Laureates from Planck's Constant

Real Interesting article, you might want to read it.

nah, i think the real crime is how an american stole Yuan Longping's method, called it his, and won a nobel prize for it. i also think it's a shame that the first group in the world to synthesize a peptide hormone (one of the most groundbreaking work in the history of biochemistry, as previous to that it was considered IMPOSSIBLE by theory for humans to synthesize biochemicals in the lab) didn't win a nobel prize but some dumb blonde got a prize for research on transposons in corn (a theoretically interesting, but practically useless task).
 
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It's just geopolitics.

China has had Pakistan as an ally for decades, we can't just give up our old allies, that isn't possible. Plus they are strategically essential, in giving us a bridge to central Asia and to the gulf via Gwadar port.

The problem is that by appeasing our ally Pakistan, we often end up annoying India, and that is something that is difficult to balance.

The best thing for me personally, would be for China/India/Pakistan to all form a united Asia. If Europe could do it, why can't we do it too? That would truly be the Asian Century. :cheers:

Guys, could everybody please stop digressing? Let's stick to the topic.

;-)

You do realise that trolls dislocate threads deliberately, not accidentally. If someone wants to derail this thread, it could be due to one of three reasons: someone wants to be wicked, a troll; someone is doing this through ineptitude, because he doesn't know what he's setting off with remarks that he considers are important, but others consider irrelevant; and through thread-drift, where we keep commenting on peripheral items, and keep moving away by sticking to each succeeding new periphery.
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The article touts too much about Indian demographic advantages.

In fact, Indian demography may well be the obstacle to India’s further development.

According to UN data, UNICEF - India - Statistics from 2003-2007, Indian youth (age 15-24) has a literacy rate of 82% ((87+77)/2). This group of people is very important. As in next 20-30 years, they will be the corner stone of labor market and are the indicator of potential future of the country. Yet, they will have about 20% of illiteracy.

Vast illiterate with young age is actually an evil force of destabilization to the society: they are often unemployed, but full of energy and easy to commit crime to contribute to the economy negatively. Unlike in an authoritarian country where people are relatively controlled, in a democratic country, it is worse as rampant media can easily mislead them into being extremists or other kinds of criminals. Moreover, India’s democracy is infamously rambunctious.

I wouldn't take quite such a view. In fact, I don't.

Without any doubt, 100% literacy is an excellent thing. We only have to look at Kerala to see the impact on every single parameter or social index. But there is a scope for tolerance of less than perfect performance at this stage of the economy, when we are still dependent largely on agriculture, with some amount of extractive mining, an even lesser amount of manufacture, and a services sector perched on top.

A point that we have to remember is that India's is still very much a rain-fed agricultural system. Meaning that multiple crops throughout the year are not possible; instead one or two crops provide most of the output. At harvest time, there is a severe peak in the numbers of hands required. This means that in the old system, thousands of migrant labourers went to the granary districts, helped with the harvest, and went back with enough to tide over most or all of the remaining. Now, as agricultural progress increases inexorably, the peak harvest-time need for hands is becoming more and more local. In other words, there will be hands to spare as the improvement of agricultural technique continues.

A last point: this does not create a criminal lumpen-proletariat automatically. One must also bear in mind that the utilisation of people is different in different parts of India. In the south, for instance, there is a perpetual shortage of technicians and skilled workmen, with the Gulf rush showing no end and the cities within continuing to expand. The result is that workmen have been flooding in from all quarters to participate in the building boom.

There is a healthy and flourishing criminal sector, but this has less to do with the failure to achieve 100% literacy than has been suggested, more to do with the attraction of quick wealth and local prestige that is displayed blatantly every hour of the day.

In addition, India is notorious in lacking of fund for agricultural irrigation build and improvement. Food may be a problem to feed the vast mass. Bear in mind that malnutrition and hunger have dealt a devastating impact on India’s population today, rendering many of the people unable to contribute to the economy, but becoming the burden of the country.

This is a puzzling passage. The contents are so mistaken, so wrong.

There is a huge, worrying surplus of food. The Supreme Court has gone to the extent of censuring the government for allowing this to build up, and has asked that part of this should be given away to the poorest sections of the population.

Perhaps you are not aware that the problem in India is lack of a mechanism to distribute free food from the surpluses to the numbers who need them. There is a tremendous problem of hunger, which slows us down; you have been very accurate in that. Unfortunately, the reasons are purely organisational, not inherent; they can be fixed once someone in charge, the Prime Minister perhaps, puts his mind to it.

In contrast, from the same set of data, Chinese youth has 99% literacy and the country is moving cautiously towards a rational democracy with sound demographic base. In addition, China’s manufacture is moving towards higher-end where brain capability such as knowledge and experiences are more important than physical capability. A living example is that Japan is a much-aged society than China, but with a much better economy.

Thus, it is wrong or not quite right to use demography to predict that India’s future economy will be better than China’s.

Since I deal with Japan, or rather, was dealing actively with Japan till about two years ago, let me also point out to you that Japan has suffered a dramatic hollowing-out, and there was then a 15% to 20% shortage of engineers and trained technicians, which had already begun to affect the economy. Already many Japanese firms have transferred some significant part of their operations to other countries, where there is no such dramatic shortage of personnel.

To complete consideration of this point, Japan is unable to import labour, the way the Germans once invited Gaestarbiter, because of cultural reasons. I would rather not dwell on the specifics of those.

Of course, that too is not incurable, but we are talking here of transient phenomena, of a transient situation which will be corrected in due course.

On the other hand, your prediction of China's economy moving towards the 'high-end', mainly in the direction of technological value addition, seems to be precise and accurate. This is inevitable; once the low-hanging fruit are gathered, China's economy will no doubt cope with her increasing onset of demographic stability by moving up-market. The day will come when China imports basic manufactured goods from other economies, perhaps India, typically labelled Chinese brand names, such as Lenovo or Huawei.

This, incidentally, in case CardSharp is listening somewhere, is also the reason why, in spite of China so very probably proving to be the dominant force in the world from 2050 onwards, if not earlier (my private guess is as early as 2025), there is likely to be interdependence, not counter-dependence, between your country and other large economies nearby. The China that we see today may actually represent the grand climax, and this may be the widest, most glorious extent it will reach in history.

However, it is unlikely to do so at the cost of other economies.

One last point, which I am unable to deal with: what exactly is a rational democracy? Is there a corresponding irrational democracy? Can we apply the adjective 'rational' in this context?

Regards,
 
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No need to reply to Gpit
He is just ur friendly neighbor hood troll
Frankly My guess is that it is another case of False Flag operation
Or the guy is frustrated becoz he lost his job during Recession
or maybe he has been glued to that new Sitcom Called OUTSOURCED and it reminds him of his own suffering
 
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My guess is that China should overtake USA in terms of GDP (PPP) by 2020 and in actual terms by 2030
Thats becoz GDP (ppp) of china at 8.4 Trillion USD is much higher than 5.2 Trillion in real terms , while that of USA is 14.2 Trillion USD

Even India is expected to overtake Japan by 2012 as 3rd largest economy
thats coz at present GDP (ppp) Of india is 3.5 Trillion USD compared to Japan's 4.2 Trillion USD
While in real terms India will only overtake Japan by 2024
 
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No need to reply to Gpit
He is just ur friendly neighbor hood troll
Frankly My guess is that it is another case of False Flag operation
Or the guy is frustrated becoz he lost his job during Recession
or maybe he has been glued to that new Sitcom Called OUTSOURCED and it reminds him of his own suffering

Thank you very much for your word of caution. I do appreciate it. There have been similar cautions I have received on Personal Mail. Perhaps a word of explanation to my friends is in order.

gpit has put up arguments which hold water, which are not to be ruled out. Whether his motives were positive or negative is not my immediate concern; once he had made an argument, on topic, devoid of personal attacks, he deserves the courtesy of a reply.

It is entirely up to him how he proceeds. I would not like to assume that he will as a matter of routine become offensive. Instead, he might - surely all warning me will admit that possibility - have some rational replies.

On two other threads, we are at this moment dealing with habitual trolls. I have challenged one, the other has been challenged by Chinese and Indian members who are apparently familiar with his style. If gpit is to be challenged, I have no problem, but unlike the other two at this moment, gpit has made what I personally think are good points, and I took the liberty of answering.

In the circumstances, I will refrain from further comment until he replies, and will respond if his reply is rational. Nobody can possibly be uncomfortable with this stand.

My thanks once again to those who have posted me in private and also to archie. My request to gpit is that he should put forward his point of view with the same force and effectiveness that he last did, and prove his critics wrong.

Regards,
 
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Of course India would outpace Chinese growth. Vietnam, Cambodgia, Indonesia etc would also do so in the forthcoming 10 to 20 years. It is not necessary to be an economist this is commonsense. China in the next 10 to 20 years would become the NO 1 economy in the world, thus it could not still have an annual economic growth rate of 10-12%. At best China would have a growth rate of 3 to 4%. Its margin of progression in terms of economic growth would normally be reduced as China reaches the economic level of the richest nations in the world. While for India its margin of growth rate would still be high given that most of India is still underdeveloped!
Besides in 2004/2005 the US and EU economist intellectuals were already predicting that in 2008 India would already have a bigger economy than China and that India would outpace China in telephony, Industrial output, etc etc. But what we see in 2010. China is the World No 2 superpower and India is still the 10th Economy in the World, China has already outpaced India in number of Billionaires accroding to Forbes despite the fact that income is more equitabily distributed in China; Chinese economy is 4 times bigger than India; China has already orgainized the best Olympic and World Expo while India is struggling to organise a regional declining event and China is building roads, metro and railways for India. All these predictions are usual bla bla by anti Chinese intellectuals and the usual China bashing!
 
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China is building roads, metro and railways for India. All these predictions are usual bla bla by anti Chinese intellectuals and the usual China bashing!

A faction of traitor Chinese leadership (in the civilian ministry) is doing this. Arming the enemy who is pointing gun to your head and waiting to press the trigger is what I call betrayal to motherland.

As I said, a faction of civilian ministry seems to be too much pro india these days.

Is this a handiwork of indian lobby in CPC? Hope they get exposed before inflicting much damage to China's national security.
 
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Man,this topic has been discussed to death here on this forum.This thread is going nowhere.
There is no parallelism in world to what china has done and there will be no parallels to what india will do.
Peace.
 
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Of course India would outpace Chinese growth. Vietnam, Cambodgia, Indonesia etc would also do so in the forthcoming 10 to 20 years. It is not necessary to be an economist this is commonsense. China in the next 10 to 20 years would become the NO 1 economy in the world, thus it could not still have an annual economic growth rate of 10-12%.

you are completely wrong. it is still possible to maintain an annual growth of 10% for at the next 20 years.

the real urbanization has not started yet.
 
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denying the half billion female population to have equal access to education?
no sane person,party or gov. does that peaceful.Stastics will show u that female literacy rate is increasing[54% was 10 yeas a go].No one is denying the fact that we still have a long way to go.
I would highly appreciate it if you are more constructive in your criticism,nevertheless i take pride in the fact that u value us enough to merit a prejudice.
 
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;-)

You do realise that trolls dislocate threads deliberately, not accidentally. If someone wants to derail this thread, it could be due to one of three reasons: someone wants to be wicked, a troll; someone is doing this through ineptitude, because he doesn't know what he's setting off with remarks that he considers are important, but others consider irrelevant; and through thread-drift, where we keep commenting on peripheral items, and keep moving away by sticking to each succeeding new periphery.
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I wouldn't take quite such a view. In fact, I don't.

Without any doubt, 100% literacy is an excellent thing. We only have to look at Kerala to see the impact on every single parameter or social index. But there is a scope for tolerance of less than perfect performance at this stage of the economy, when we are still dependent largely on agriculture, with some amount of extractive mining, an even lesser amount of manufacture, and a services sector perched on top.

A point that we have to remember is that India's is still very much a rain-fed agricultural system. Meaning that multiple crops throughout the year are not possible; instead one or two crops provide most of the output. At harvest time, there is a severe peak in the numbers of hands required. This means that in the old system, thousands of migrant labourers went to the granary districts, helped with the harvest, and went back with enough to tide over most or all of the remaining. Now, as agricultural progress increases inexorably, the peak harvest-time need for hands is becoming more and more local. In other words, there will be hands to spare as the improvement of agricultural technique continues.

A last point: this does not create a criminal lumpen-proletariat automatically. One must also bear in mind that the utilisation of people is different in different parts of India. In the south, for instance, there is a perpetual shortage of technicians and skilled workmen, with the Gulf rush showing no end and the cities within continuing to expand. The result is that workmen have been flooding in from all quarters to participate in the building boom.

There is a healthy and flourishing criminal sector, but this has less to do with the failure to achieve 100% literacy than has been suggested, more to do with the attraction of quick wealth and local prestige that is displayed blatantly every hour of the day.



This is a puzzling passage. The contents are so mistaken, so wrong.

There is a huge, worrying surplus of food. The Supreme Court has gone to the extent of censuring the government for allowing this to build up, and has asked that part of this should be given away to the poorest sections of the population.

Perhaps you are not aware that the problem in India is lack of a mechanism to distribute free food from the surpluses to the numbers who need them. There is a tremendous problem of hunger, which slows us down; you have been very accurate in that. Unfortunately, the reasons are purely organisational, not inherent; they can be fixed once someone in charge, the Prime Minister perhaps, puts his mind to it.



Since I deal with Japan, or rather, was dealing actively with Japan till about two years ago, let me also point out to you that Japan has suffered a dramatic hollowing-out, and there was then a 15% to 20% shortage of engineers and trained technicians, which had already begun to affect the economy. Already many Japanese firms have transferred some significant part of their operations to other countries, where there is no such dramatic shortage of personnel.

To complete consideration of this point, Japan is unable to import labour, the way the Germans once invited Gaestarbiter, because of cultural reasons. I would rather not dwell on the specifics of those.

Of course, that too is not incurable, but we are talking here of transient phenomena, of a transient situation which will be corrected in due course.

On the other hand, your prediction of China's economy moving towards the 'high-end', mainly in the direction of technological value addition, seems to be precise and accurate. This is inevitable; once the low-hanging fruit are gathered, China's economy will no doubt cope with her increasing onset of demographic stability by moving up-market. The day will come when China imports basic manufactured goods from other economies, perhaps India, typically labelled Chinese brand names, such as Lenovo or Huawei.

This, incidentally, in case CardSharp is listening somewhere, is also the reason why, in spite of China so very probably proving to be the dominant force in the world from 2050 onwards, if not earlier (my private guess is as early as 2025), there is likely to be interdependence, not counter-dependence, between your country and other large economies nearby. The China that we see today may actually represent the grand climax, and this may be the widest, most glorious extent it will reach in history.

However, it is unlikely to do so at the cost of other economies.

One last point, which I am unable to deal with: what exactly is a rational democracy? Is there a corresponding irrational democracy? Can we apply the adjective 'rational' in this context?

Regards,

Dear JS,

What is irrational democracy?

Here are two stories excerpted from WSJ to serve as an example. The complete story is Indian Road Hits Unexpected Bump - WSJ.com

It's playing out in Orissa state, where the Indian government recently stopped a British company, Vedanta Resources PLC, from mining bauxite. South Korean company Posco has been trying for five years to build a $12 billion steel plant in eastern Orissa state but work hasn't begun because of local opposition to land acquisition.

…

The Indian environmental ministry last month blocked Vedanta from mining bauxite in hills that are the homeland of an 8,000-person tribe. The mining conglomerate had secured state and federal environmental permits as well as the Indian Supreme Court's sign off. But the ministry said Vedanta had failed to obtain the endorsement of the tribals, and had expanded its nearby $5.4 billion alumina plant before getting the government nod to do so.

The ministry decision had an immediate effect on local employment, leading Vedanta to cancel contracts related to expansion plans.

Protestors apparently upset at losing their jobs attacked the refinery buildings last week, a company official confirmed.

…

The story tells vividly how an irrational or rambunctious democracy looks like and what result it will yield: a project tremendously important to the country of India was blocked by a 8000-person tribe.

And the article continues...

The Yamuna Expressway, the name of the 103-mile highway under construction between Delhi and the Taj Mahal, was planned seven years ago. It is expected to reduce travel time between the two cities to 1½ hours instead of the seven hours it sometimes takes to drive the existing pot-holed, four-lane roadway clogged with cows, motorized rickshaws, tractors, trucks and tourist buses.

As with most road construction projects in India, the expressway was a public-private partnership. The government awarded the construction contract and acted as the broker for the private developer—Jaypee Group, an Indian conglomerate, to acquire the land.

In 2007, the state government began rapidly brokering the purchase of the 5,500 acres Jaypee Group needed to build the expressway. The government set different rates for the land being bought, depending on property values in the immediate area.
Land in the region closer to Delhi, the booming Noida area, was priced at about $20 a square meter (about 11 square feet), officials monitoring the project say. Land farther away, in the district of Aligarh, was valued at about $10 a square meter.


In late July, protests broke out as state officials pushed to close the final land buys. Thousands of farmers in the Aligarh district, clad in traditional white kurta shirt and trousers, began gathering daily in an expressway underpass in Jikarpur village, protesting they weren't being paid enough for their land.

On Aug. 14, the crowd turned violent, burning construction equipment, said K. Ravindra Naik, the Aligarh district magistrate, who took over the job the next day after his predecessor was transferred.

Plainclothes police showed up at the protest and grabbed one of the leaders, say farmers and Mr. Naik, based on reports he received the next day. Farmers, hearing their leader had been arrested, converged on the protest site. The crowd grew larger and more aggressive, snatching a state police officer, farmers and Mr. Naik said.

He said the crowd killed the officer, spooning out his eyes and plucking out his fingernails. :taz: Police retaliated by shooting and killing three farmers, Mr. Naik and farmers interviewed say.

Two days later, a top state government official negotiated a settlement with the arrested farm leader. The official agreed to pay the Aligarh district farmers more for land they sold for the townships, and to make it voluntary for them to relinquish their land.

But many farmers still weren't satisfied. The new offer of about $12.50 a square meter for the Aligarh land was still less than the Noida rate. "We want the same rate as farmers are getting in Noida. We won't be satisfied until then," Choudhury Gangaram, 59, said.

Some, like Devdutt Singh Choudhury, a teacher, said they were forced to sell their land and now wanted it back. "How will my children live their lives without land?" he asked.

Mr. Naik, the district magistrate, said farmers weren't forced to sell. He said the government can't retrieve the land already sold to Jaypee Group, nor can the government pay the same rate to farmers in Aligarh district, where property values are much lower than in Noida.

Vivek Bansal, a state legislator in India's most populous Uttar Pradesh state, and a secretary of the All India Congress Committee, the decision-making body of the Congress Party, said the government will have a tough time forcing the farmers to compromise.

In addition to Mr. Gandhi and Mr. Bansal, dozens of politicians from other political parties have shown up in Jikarpur to personally pledge support to the farmers' cause. "They have gotten the feeling that they can get anything they want and force the government to accept anything," Mr. Bansal said.
….

In both cases, the elected leaders failed to educate the constituents with broader interest of their nation in their mind, to mediate among interest groups to reach a compromise. Instead, in the first case the ministry immediately stopped Vedanta, and Vedanta “punished” the local people in return. In the second case, “dozens of politicians from other political parties have shown up in Jikarpur to personally pledge support to the farmers' cause”, perhaps not really for the farmer’s interest but for their own political interest. Both ended up in lose-lose results.

IMHO, if it is indeed in the interest of the nation, government activities similar to “Condemnation via eminent domain” Eminent domain - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia should be adopted legally and forcefully.
 
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CAPTAIN AMERICA said:
I think there has been 9 Chinese Nobel Prize winners, just none from Mainland China.

Dont think it has as much to do with racism as lack of freedom

List of Chinese Nobel Prize Laureates

off topic but there i won your challenge..
chinesenobel.jpg
 
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off topic but there i won your challenge..
chinesenobel.jpg

Dont worry, China is about to have Nobel Prize winner, the first in 110 years.

China could get its first Nobel laureate

China could get its first Nobel laureate
SHANGHAI — After more than a century of exclusion, many are hoping China will next month join the ranks of Nobel Prize winning nations.


The world's fastest growing economy has little hope of seeing one of its citizens top the list for the medicine, science or economics prize, but pro-democracy dissident Liu Xiaobo is on many shortlists for this year's Nobel Peace Prize which will be announced in Oslo Oct. 8.


Liu, a writer and university professor who is currently serving an 11-year jail sentence, helped draft Charter 08, a plea for political reform that eventually garnered more than 10,000 signatures when it was stealthily circulated across China, often via the Internet.
 
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