How difficult would it be for China to invade Taiwan?

[UKBengali]

Did you thought and said that of the Ukrainians before Russia invaded?

Two critical items the world miscalculated of the Russia-Ukraine war: The technical capabilities of both Russia and Ukraine, and the morale factor of the Ukrainians.

That your skin is not at risk of course moves you towards China. Consider the probability, no longer possibility, that you et al miscalculated again.

China is many times more powerful conventionally than Russia is now and it is getting relatively more powerful vis a vis Taiwan and other developed countries as time goes by.

Within 10-15 years the idea that Taiwan can hope to break away from a superpower(China) just 90 miles away will be considered absurd.

US + Japan + Taiwan can defeat Chinese invasion attempt in 2022 but maybe not in 2032 and certainly not by 2040.

 

[gambit]

US + Japan + Taiwan can defeat Chinese invasion attempt in 2022 but maybe not in 2032 and certainly not by 2040.

Right...China will try every decade? If China failed the first invasion, you can mock the Taiwanese for needing US help all you want, but that failure will push Taiwan further towards formal independence. We will learn what worked and will reinforce those tactics and technologies. China cannot afford a second failure.

 

[UKBengali]

Right...China will try every decade? If China failed the first invasion, you can mock the Taiwanese for needing US help all you want, but that failure will push Taiwan further towards formal independence. We will learn what worked and will reinforce those tactics and technologies. China cannot afford a second failure.

No that is not what a meant.

You cannot wish geography away and Taiwan is destined to go back into the CCP fold within a generation.

Ony remains to be seen whether there will be a war to make this happen.

 

[nang2]

No that is not what a meant.

You cannot wish geography away and Taiwan is destined to go back into the CCP fold within a generation.

Ony remains to be seen whether there will be a war to make this happen.

There was a joke on how Taiwan could change the situation: dig dirt up on its west coast and dump it on the east coast. Not really at the wandering earth scale, but you sure get a wandering island.

 

[Luosifen]

There was a joke on how Taiwan could change the situation: dig dirty up on its west coast and dump it on the east coast. Not really at the wandering earth scale, but you sure get a wandering island.

Can they out-dig the mainland land reclaiming their way eastwards?

 

[nang2]

Can they out-dig the mainland land reclaiming their way eastwards?

That would be fun to watch.

 

[Maula Jatt]

Question to Chinese members
If one day Taiwan decides on one country two systems rule like HK under CCP

Would it be a acceptable to china?

 

[applesauce]

Question to Chinese members
If one day Taiwan decides on one country two systems rule like HK under CCP

Would it be a acceptable to china?

that was a policy china pursued for years and even now.
so yes.

 

[Luosifen]

Question to Chinese members
If one day Taiwan decides on one country two systems rule like HK under CCP

Would it be a acceptable to china?

Yes, that's what the central government was aiming for with the KMT before the US-backed 'Sunflower' movement removed them and put the DPP in power.

 

[Brainsucker]

I don’t think so, when I spoke of infrastructure I did not mean just roads, bridges and buildings. I meant the very foundations of Taiwans economy, if it is destroyed it will be an irrevocable loss to the mainland.

You know what, for China, when they go to war, they always go to the principle of total war. Look at Taiping rebellion, look at their revolution war, look at every war that they involved. So when China goes into Taiwan, it will mean a total war against their enemy. That's why they follow the principle of Sun Tzu. The best victory is a victory without a war. They rather solve things peacefully. Because when they go to war, then they don't care about anything else. Total annihilation.

 

[Brainsucker]

That's why the decision isn't made lightly, like I said. If it is made, then the leadership has judged that all costs are worth it including the cost of rebuilding.

You forget one thing, the cost of repopulating.

 

[MH.Yang]

I don't think China has navy ready for task like that since Taiwanese have tons of naval mines and anti-ship missiles so PLAN will most likely suffer heavy casulties. Maybe in 2030's but then again Taiwan has extra toys by then.

Bad performance of Russian army in Ukraine probably has made Xi think twice if invasion is a smart thing.

en, What about 240k rockets every 5 min?
Taiwan is 130 km away from the mainland, and China's WS2D rocket has a range of 480 km. The Nanjing Military Region has 40 rocket gun battalions, more than 500 long-range rockets gun, and each vehicle launches 48 rockets in one round.
The rocket will fire first and destroy all known targets. We don't care about any interception system. If 240k rockets are not enough, we can repeat it. Then the other weapons come on.

China's industrial capacity is greater than that of the USA and the European Union combined. The Russians are short of weapons and ammunition. We won't. Our ammunition delivery volume and speed will be stronger than that of the USA.

 

[Brainsucker]

It isn't as easy as you think especially since Taiwan is heavily fortified and they got a lot of anti-ship weaponry.

China is right now lacking especially on anti-naval mine warfare ships... 055 destroyers are impressive but minesweepers would be more important if they want clear up way for transport ships. Currently PLAN has only 36-40 modern minesweepers.

About the mines, well, it is a good idea actually, China can also help Taiwan mines their seaports, shores, etc. Specially at the south and eastern part of the island. Do you think that US and Japan's transport ships still dare to bring logistics and weapons to Taiwan?

China just needs to throw all their long range rockets to Taiwan, patrol their air zone, destroy their infrastructure, their food supply warehouses, destroy their water supply, and put mines to the east and south of Taiwan. Blockade the sea, and wait till Taiwanese's spirit to wanes. Nationalism can bring up any human's fighting spirit, but there still treshold / limit even with that. just wait until starvation and sickness attack those valiant defenders, and they will think that live under the rule of an authoratorian dictactors are still batter than starve to died.

The only problem is if US gather their fleet to rescue Taiwan. It will cause the biggest naval battle in history. Even bigger than US vs Japan in World War 2. It will test Chinese's resolve for huge amount of casualty. But it also the same as US. There will be a lot of death in the water. But not only that, that direct war between US and China will be follow up with nuclear war.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

I don't think China has navy ready for task like that since Taiwanese have tons of naval mines and anti-ship missiles so PLAN will most likely suffer heavy casulties. Maybe in 2030's but then again Taiwan has extra toys by then.

Bad performance of Russian army in Ukraine probably has made Xi think twice if invasion is a smart thing.

PLAN subs are almost certainly following Taiwanese ships shortly after they leave port. Taiwan doesn't have much ASW capability.

They won't get a chance to deploy their mines when the balloon goes up.

 

[khansaheeb]

It would be insanely hard for the PLA to take Taiwan.
Taiwan has a very large amount of military hardware, which rivals countries with economies which are ten times smaller

it really depends how China does it and how determined it is to take the Island. It could just blitz the country into submission by concentrated cruise and ballistic missile fire or just have Taiwan destroyed in a direct war with Taiwan and a US proxy war in Taiwan. An economic blockade wouldn't be hard to achieve either by threats to international freight shipping and the consequential collapse of the Taiwanese economy. We could then see Western sanctions and grabbing of Chinese assets similar to what has happened against Russia. There would then be a regional anti-Chinese flurry as smaller countries panic into the Western sphere of influence and gang up against China . Depending on the regional reaction it would determine whether a wider regional war is ignited.