How difficult would it be for China to invade Taiwan?

[nang2]

The biggest unknown would be if US will militarily intervene.

If Taiwan was by itself, then it would probably go down in 3 weeks. It will take China about 72 hours to achieve air superiority and a week to fully clear the air space.

If the current conflict tells us anything, it s that US won't. If US doesn't intervene militarily for an independent country that has one leg in NATO, how would anyone expect it to intervene militarily for a "country" that it doesn't even recognize officially? China probably has to be much weaker for US to act differently. I expect China to have a nuclear build-up prior to the invasion to ensure US act consistently.

 

[MajesticPug]

It isn't as easy as you think especially since Taiwan is heavily fortified and they got a lot of anti-ship weaponry.

China is right now lacking especially on anti-naval mine warfare ships... 055 destroyers are impressive but minesweepers would be more important if they want clear up way for transport ships. Currently PLAN has only 36-40 modern minesweepers.

Read your first post and I told myself to refrain from responding since there were replies for you. But your posts really brought me smiles. Thanks LOL. When comparing the impending war in Taiwan to Ukraine's current conflict, do you realize Taiwan is an island and Ukraine is connected to NATO countries by lands? After bombing every radar and power plants, roads, airports, military installations, ports, and anything I left out of this list, PLA is still in no hurry to put boots on the island. Why should they? If minesweepers need months to clean the mines for transport ships, then be it.

 

[S10]

If the current conflict tells us anything, it s that US won't. If US doesn't intervene militarily for an independent country that has one leg in NATO, how would anyone expect it to intervene militarily for a "country" that it doesn't even recognize officially? China probably has to be much weaker for US to act differently. I expect China to have a nuclear build-up prior to the invasion to ensure US act consistently.

I actually think it will. If I was a decision maker in US, I would absolutely intervene to destroy any chance of China threatening US hegemony. The key is that they must act SOON.

This is their last opportunity to stop the rise of China when they still have a relatively large naval advantage (11 carriers, 64 nuclear attack subs, 10 amphibious assault ships) and slight technological edge. These advantages will shrink significantly going into 2030.

Two ways they can do this:
- Blockading China's maritime sea routes in South China Sea (Malacca strait, Indian ocean) along with QUAD.
- Attacking China's landing ships and escorts with nuclear subs while keeping their carriers out of strike range.

 

[nang2]

I actually think it will. If I was a decision maker in US, I would absolutely intervene to destroy any chance of China threatening US hegemony.

This is their last opportunity to stop the rise of China when they still have a relatively large naval advantage (11 carriers, 64 nuclear attack subs, 10 amphibious assault ships) and slight technological edge. These advantages will shrink significantly going into 2030.

Two ways they can do this:
- Blockading China's maritime sea routes in South China Sea (Malacca strait, Indian ocean) along with QUAD.
- Attacking China's landing ships and escorts with nuclear subs while keeping their carriers out of strike range.

That will drag Japan into the war, too, not to mention any opportunistic move by Russia. But the threat of US intervention is real and China has been preparing for this with alternative trade routes, oil supply, etc. Most of all, the invasion has to be short and decisive.

However, I doubt US would attack China's landing ships. They might as well declare war on China for that.

 

[S10]

That will drag Japan into the war, too, not to mention any opportunistic move by Russia. But the threat of US intervention is real and China has been preparing for this with alternative trade routes, oil supply, etc. Most of all, the invasion has to be short and decisive.

However, I doubt US would attack China's landing ships. They might as well declare war on China for that.

Japan will be happy to assist the US. They see China as their number 1 threat. If they could stop its rise, it will be a net gain for them.

We need to stop thinking about whether if Japan and US will, but how they will do it. You cannot take Taiwan wishing they don't join in.

 

[nang2]

Japan will be happy to assist the US. They see China as their number 1 threat. If they could stop its rise, it will be a net gain for them.

We need to stop thinking about whether if Japan and US will, but how they will do it. You cannot take Taiwan wishing they don't join in.

You are right. Preparing for the worst often ensures smooth undertaking. Even US used about 1.5M (700K Americans) troops to repel Iraq back in the first gulf war.

 

[UKBengali]

I think the question is kind of moot as China will probably be able to take Taiwan, even with US and Japanese support, by 2030 and almost certainly by 2035-2040.

Time is on China's side and I don't think that the Taiwanese are brave enough to declare independence and face China's wrath in terms of missile attacks and a potential invasion to follow.

 

[jamal18]

Guys, can somebody explain. What's the urgency?

By 2010 China will be the worlds largest economy. Soon the US dollar will be in the toilet where it belongs and the US will be a middling New World power like Brazil. Then China can walk in and take over with a large stick.

Is all this ' China will invade tomorrow morning' another false emergency?

 

[dbc]

A decision to go to war isn't made lightly. If the decision is made, destroying their economy is kind of the point.

why? Taiwan belongs to China, what the point reintegrating a shouldering pile of nothing?

 

[nang2]

why? Taiwan belongs to China, what the point reintegrating a shouldering pile of nothing?

It won't be nothing. It is land.

Guys, can somebody explain. What's the urgency?

By 2010 China will be the worlds largest economy. Soon the US dollar will be in the toilet where it belongs and the US will be a middling New World power like Brazil. Then China can walk in and take over with a large stick.

Is all this ' China will invade tomorrow morning' another false emergency?

Just like stock investment, if you wait for the bottom in order to buy in, you would wait forever.

 

[applesauce]

why? Taiwan belongs to China, what the point reintegrating a shouldering pile of nothing?

leaving out history, the position of the land is important. the current infrastructure(can be rebuilt) and people, less so.


taking taiwan completely smashes any first or second island chain containments attempts on china, turning the area from a potential invasion route into china, to a defensive fortress(and a nuclear sub safe haven) from which china can exert huge influence deep into the pacific.

 

[UKBengali]

leaving out history, the position of the land is important. the current infrastructure(can be rebuilt) and people, less so.


taking taiwan completely smashes any first or second island chain containments attempts on china, turning the area from a potential invasion route into china, to a defensive fortress(and a nuclear sub safe haven) from which china can exert huge influence deep into the pacific.

Exactly.

The island of Taiwan is strategically important to China.

Taking it would not only remove any threat from it but also allow China naval bases in deep water to base its nuclear submarines in.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

why? Taiwan belongs to China, what the point reintegrating a shouldering pile of nothing?

That's why the decision isn't made lightly, like I said. If it is made, then the leadership has judged that all costs are worth it including the cost of rebuilding.

 

[MultaniGuy]

I think Taiwan should accept one country two systems.

That is the best compromise.

lol, why should USA protect Taiwan. Kind of stupid, right.

Cannot tolerate others becoming strong.

 

[gambit]

...I don't think that the Taiwanese are brave enough to declare independence and face China's wrath in terms of missile attacks and a potential invasion to follow.

Did you thought and said that of the Ukrainians before Russia invaded?

Two critical items the world miscalculated of the Russia-Ukraine war: The technical capabilities of both Russia and Ukraine, and the morale factor of the Ukrainians.

That your skin is not at risk of course moves you towards China. Consider the probability, no longer possibility, that you et al miscalculated again.