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An interesting column:
from: Pakistan's state stumbles: Failing, but not yet a failure | The Economist
Pakistan's state stumbles
Failing, but not yet a failure
Oct 7th 2011, 8:03 by A.R. | ISLAMABAD
SIP a latte and munch on a salad in an elegant Islamabad café, one equipped with wireless and a trendy clientele, browse the country’s outspoken newspapers and websites, chat with its articulate analysts and professionals—and outsiders’ talk of Pakistan as a state on the brink of collapse sounds outlandish.
Yet the question persists. Consider a few reports of the past few days alone. Riots erupted in several cities over the woeful, and worsening, supply of electricity to a rapidly urbanising population. Unpaid bills left generators unable to fire up their plants. International aid groups warned that a dismal response to floods in the south, notably in Sindh province, leaves some 10m displaced people desperately vulnerable. Now prices of vegetables and other food are soaring, as much farmland is literally under water.
In Punjab province, especially in its capital, Lahore, an epidemic of dengue fever is taking a grim toll. Some 170 people have died of it so far, including doctors who were caring for the sick. In Baluchistan, a southern province, unlucky passengers were pulled off buses and massacred this week, as part of a wave of sectarian violence. Shootings continue apace in the country’s commercial capital, Karachi, too. That’s not to mention the large tracts of land in the tribal areas, such as North and South Waziristan, where the state’s writ hardly fell in the first place.
The economy, meanwhile, looks dire. The IMF refused to release a final tranche of funds for Pakistan this year, after the government repeatedly failed to carry out much-needed tax and other reforms. Barely 1% of Pakistanis pay income tax. Rich Pakistanis admit their priority is to send their children abroad, first to study and then to work and live. As relations with America turn very sour indeed, international aid, which has funded much government spending, is drying up, at least temporarily. Only remittances, it seems, can be relied on to keep flowing steadily.
For Pakistan-watchers much of the above may be familiar. But another grim milestone stands out. This week the country marked its 100th case of polio for the year, as two children were diagnosed with the disease in North Waziristan, where a vaccination drive was badly fumbled, either through corruption or lack of expertise.
That’s roughly double last year’s toll. No wonder the World Health Organisation calls it a threat that extends beyond Pakistan’s borders—indeed, China has reported a few new cases of polio, its first since 1999, imported over the frontier from Pakistan. Given that the rest of the world, including the most troubled corners of Africa, is on the path to eradicating the disease, the setback in Pakistan stands out.
Pakistanis rightly lament that their civilian leaders are too corrupt, lazy, distracted by politics or feeble to get any effective governing done. This week the country’s ruling coalition appeared, yet again, on the verge of collapse one day, only to be stitched back together the next. Meanwhile glum military bosses, who wield enormous political clout and divert an estimated one third of public funds, are preoccupied by troubled relations abroad and messy ties with extremist groups at home. Who is left, beyond domestic and foreign NGOs, to bother with petty details such as eradicating polio?
In all, there is evidence aplenty of how the Pakistani state fails its people. Even a passing, pampered, visitor to Islamabad feels it. Move from your trendy café to the hotel that hides behind concrete blast walls, with heavily armed guards at its door, and the sense of a city under siege is unmissable.
Yet, as Pakistani observers respond, the state’s many failures do not—at least not yet—mean that it is destined to cease to function and crumble into dust. Affairs may drift along for many years yet: parts of the state work, in fits and starts, notably among the armed forces and in the cities, but then it gives up on the basic needs of many ordinary Pakistanis. That creates more spaces for other actors to fill—for example the religious groups that set up madrassas to teach an estimated 1.5m Pakistani children a year, or the private schools and universities, some of them very good, that teach many more millions yet.
Just possibly, however, a mechanism exists that could turn things around: democracy. Pakistan has never given it a chance to grow roots, but if it does, then better government could gradually follow. National elections are likely next year, first for the Senate in the spring and then, probably late in the year, for parliament. If the current spell of civilian rule continues—and for now the army doesn’t look ready to snatch power back—then for the first time in Pakistan’s history civilians could complete a full term in office and give way to another lot of civilians. In theory, at least, voters can demand a bare minimum of good performance from their leaders. Does that promise an improvement in the lives of Pakistanis over the next few years? Almost certainly not. But, as with the protesters behind the Arab Spring, Pakistanis may dream that gains will follow in the long run.
from: Pakistan's state stumbles: Failing, but not yet a failure | The Economist
Pakistan's state stumbles
Failing, but not yet a failure
Oct 7th 2011, 8:03 by A.R. | ISLAMABAD
SIP a latte and munch on a salad in an elegant Islamabad café, one equipped with wireless and a trendy clientele, browse the country’s outspoken newspapers and websites, chat with its articulate analysts and professionals—and outsiders’ talk of Pakistan as a state on the brink of collapse sounds outlandish.
Yet the question persists. Consider a few reports of the past few days alone. Riots erupted in several cities over the woeful, and worsening, supply of electricity to a rapidly urbanising population. Unpaid bills left generators unable to fire up their plants. International aid groups warned that a dismal response to floods in the south, notably in Sindh province, leaves some 10m displaced people desperately vulnerable. Now prices of vegetables and other food are soaring, as much farmland is literally under water.
In Punjab province, especially in its capital, Lahore, an epidemic of dengue fever is taking a grim toll. Some 170 people have died of it so far, including doctors who were caring for the sick. In Baluchistan, a southern province, unlucky passengers were pulled off buses and massacred this week, as part of a wave of sectarian violence. Shootings continue apace in the country’s commercial capital, Karachi, too. That’s not to mention the large tracts of land in the tribal areas, such as North and South Waziristan, where the state’s writ hardly fell in the first place.
The economy, meanwhile, looks dire. The IMF refused to release a final tranche of funds for Pakistan this year, after the government repeatedly failed to carry out much-needed tax and other reforms. Barely 1% of Pakistanis pay income tax. Rich Pakistanis admit their priority is to send their children abroad, first to study and then to work and live. As relations with America turn very sour indeed, international aid, which has funded much government spending, is drying up, at least temporarily. Only remittances, it seems, can be relied on to keep flowing steadily.
For Pakistan-watchers much of the above may be familiar. But another grim milestone stands out. This week the country marked its 100th case of polio for the year, as two children were diagnosed with the disease in North Waziristan, where a vaccination drive was badly fumbled, either through corruption or lack of expertise.
That’s roughly double last year’s toll. No wonder the World Health Organisation calls it a threat that extends beyond Pakistan’s borders—indeed, China has reported a few new cases of polio, its first since 1999, imported over the frontier from Pakistan. Given that the rest of the world, including the most troubled corners of Africa, is on the path to eradicating the disease, the setback in Pakistan stands out.
Pakistanis rightly lament that their civilian leaders are too corrupt, lazy, distracted by politics or feeble to get any effective governing done. This week the country’s ruling coalition appeared, yet again, on the verge of collapse one day, only to be stitched back together the next. Meanwhile glum military bosses, who wield enormous political clout and divert an estimated one third of public funds, are preoccupied by troubled relations abroad and messy ties with extremist groups at home. Who is left, beyond domestic and foreign NGOs, to bother with petty details such as eradicating polio?
In all, there is evidence aplenty of how the Pakistani state fails its people. Even a passing, pampered, visitor to Islamabad feels it. Move from your trendy café to the hotel that hides behind concrete blast walls, with heavily armed guards at its door, and the sense of a city under siege is unmissable.
Yet, as Pakistani observers respond, the state’s many failures do not—at least not yet—mean that it is destined to cease to function and crumble into dust. Affairs may drift along for many years yet: parts of the state work, in fits and starts, notably among the armed forces and in the cities, but then it gives up on the basic needs of many ordinary Pakistanis. That creates more spaces for other actors to fill—for example the religious groups that set up madrassas to teach an estimated 1.5m Pakistani children a year, or the private schools and universities, some of them very good, that teach many more millions yet.
Just possibly, however, a mechanism exists that could turn things around: democracy. Pakistan has never given it a chance to grow roots, but if it does, then better government could gradually follow. National elections are likely next year, first for the Senate in the spring and then, probably late in the year, for parliament. If the current spell of civilian rule continues—and for now the army doesn’t look ready to snatch power back—then for the first time in Pakistan’s history civilians could complete a full term in office and give way to another lot of civilians. In theory, at least, voters can demand a bare minimum of good performance from their leaders. Does that promise an improvement in the lives of Pakistanis over the next few years? Almost certainly not. But, as with the protesters behind the Arab Spring, Pakistanis may dream that gains will follow in the long run.
