Has China Punctured India's Pipe Dream of Capturing Gilgit Baltistan with Its Actions in Ladakh?

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

It's a bad news!! Pak should have done that....

*I am working on complex and difficult English grammar rules. I want to be as good as the Indian General Staffs in that regard

 

[vi-va]

China needs to leave some rope for India to hang itself when it makes another miscalculation. Maintaining ambiguity on the LAC keeps India off balance, which is something the Chinese can work with; India needs to be seen as the aggressor, as Modi has so perfectly implied in this border skirmish, hence why he is now quiet.

China doesn’t want to kinetically utterly destroy Indian forces (unless it has to), but use just the right amount of coercion to cause paralysis India’s decision making, forcing a diplomatic agreement which favors Beijing.

Indian pipe dreams are only temporarily tempered. they will come back as soon as they get a large shipment of foreign weapons. Their economy and the effects of decoupling from China without a soft landing through better deals with Western countries is what will really pop their bubble. They may soon be less competitive without access to the Chinese supply chain and the west maybe getting more protectionist when it comes to Indian services (with suspension of the H1B Visas). The revolt of the middle class Indians may soon be upon Modi and his ilk.

India will be placed in the even weaker position when India want to negotiate a trade deal with west, especially US.

Trump will take advantage to the max to squeeze India, ask India to buy weapons, like 100 overpriced F-16 and so on.

The only thing Trump need for now is votes as Bolton described in his newly released book. So Trump won't have any mercy, just take advantage of India.

Modi has no better choice, sign a trade deal which favor US will harm Modi political base permanently, so an arm deal is more likely.

 

[Longhorn]

What if india offers Kashmir (highly unlikely) and in return asks for Pakistani's support against China? I wonder what will our state do? That'd be quite a predicament! Although Pak-Kashmir-China are completely inter-related and cannot be viewed through separate lens. The incentive would be bigger for Pak but China is an iron brother, much more trustworthy than our actual islamic brothers bar Turkey perhaps. Also our relation with China is of strategic-cum-economic one. Its like our destinies are intertwined. So even if such an offer is made, it'd be rejected outrightly but the scenario would be an interesting one and would expose india's desperation.

If that was to happen (peace between Pakistan and India) then China wouldn't be unhappy about it.
It would safeguard CPEC and relieve China of a complicated security responsibility. China offered India a 3 way cooperation deal to enable development in the region involving Pak/ India/China, it was the Indians that refused.
On the side of the coin, there is no way Pakistan is going to hang China out to dry for it's own benefit. The only way it will work is the if all three countries that are party to the Kashmir dispute are on board.
So I doubt if your scenario is a realistic one.

India lost its land while showing the weather of GB.


Bhai, Indians have forgotten about GB for the time being. Several Indians are tweeting about reaching beijing in their tanks.

Kahan tak pohnche hain Bharati?
Beijing gymkhana ko kahen chai banana shuru karein?

 

[FuturePAF]

India will be placed in the even weaker position when India want to negotiate a trade deal with west, especially US.

Trump will take advantage to the max to squeeze India, ask India to buy weapons, like 100 overpriced F-16 and so on.

The only thing Trump need for now is votes as Bolton described in his newly released book. So Trump won't have any mercy, just take advantage of India.

Modi has no better choice, sign a trade deal which favor US will harm Modi political base permanently, so an arm deal is more likely.

It also goes beyond that. India has been hoping the West would move its factories from China to India, and speeding up India’s development similar to what the last 40 years have done for China. But even if India build the infrastructure and trains its workforce, The west won’t make that mistake again. It is trying to find ways to bring back manufacturing to their own nations because there is massive unemployment and underemployment in the west which is no longer sustainable.

Secondly, The past 20 years of continuous war has drained western nations from fighting pointless wars that will ultimately be resolved politically. Hence the limit of military support foreign nations will give India, without a large arms deal. Even after a large arms deal the support will be conditional, as the Saudis learned recently. The US will try to sell overpriced weapons to India if it is willing to buy, but it will cost India money it could have spend developing its economy, so it will be stuck in an arms race while its demographic dividend fades over the next 20 years.

India would be wise to free Kashmir but condition it upon Kashmiri neutrality and independence like Kosovo; which is prohibited from joining Albania. India and the region could then move on to economic development where it would have more options to gain political influence, similar to how Germany gained more influence through the formation of the EU rather then when it invaded other countries under its Nazi government.

Kashmir is a noose India has tied around itself and its ambitions.

 

[vi-va]

It also goes beyond that. India has been hoping the West would move its factories from China to India, and speeding up India’s development similar to what the last 40 years have done for China. But even if India build the infrastructure and trains its workforce, The west won’t make that mistake again. It is trying to find ways to bring back manufacturing to their own nations because there is massive unemployment and underemployment in the west which is no longer sustainable.

Secondly, The past 20 years of continuous war has drained western nations from fighting pointless wars that will ultimately be resolved politically. Hence the limit of military support foreign nations will give India, without a large arms deal. Even after a large arms deal the support will be conditional, as the Saudis learned recently. The US will try to sell overpriced weapons to India if it is willing to buy, but it will cost India money it could have spend developing its economy, so it will be stuck in an arms race while its demographic dividend fades over the next 20 years.

India would be wise to free Kashmir but condition it upon Kashmiri neutrality and independence like Kosovo; which is prohibited from joining Albania. India and the region could then move on to economic development where it would have more options to gain political influence, similar to how Germany gained more influence through the formation of the EU rather then when it invaded other countries under its Nazi government.

Kashmir is a noose India has tied around itself and its ambitions.

Totally agree.

Frankly speaking, the biggest mistake the west made in past 200 years is witnessing China rejuvenate.

One China is nightmare of US. If another 1.4 billion of Indians rise, will Indians as obedient as today?

Any nation when it become strong enough will say NO to west as a pawn. So the India plan failed, the west won't help India to be another China. That's suicidal.

And yes, you are right. The west especially Trump has little interest to be involved in another war. India desperately want US to pressure China at this moment. But it's NOT free at all, in the opposite, Trump need a big check from Modi and will do little.

For your third point, yes, India better give Kashmir autonomy, so that India can focus on economy. Remember how China developed? China focus on economy for almost 40 years. Never directly involved in any conflicts in past 40 years.

But the domestic political pressure will force Modi hard-line diplomacy. It's tragedy of both Pakistan and China.

 

[Meengla]

If that was to happen (peace between Pakistan and India) then China wouldn't be unhappy about it.
It would safeguard CPEC and relieve China of a complicated security responsibility. China offered India a 3 way cooperation deal to enable development in the region involving Pak/ India/China, it was the Indians that refused.
On the side of the coin, there is no way Pakistan is going to hang China out to dry for it's own benefit. The only way it will work is the if all three countries that are party to the Kashmir dispute are on board.

It worries me often to think about Pakistan's options viz a viz China should India offer a grand-bargain with Pakistan over Kashmir. I think it will be in Pakistan's interests to be at peace, if not friendly terms with India. PDF Pakistanis would hate me for saying this but, I believe, Pakistan will be a far better off place in case of peace with India than having a too deep alliance with China.
Everyone is for themselves in this world. While Pakistan should never betray those who are Pakistan's benefactors but Pakistan should ultimately look after it's own citizens' prosperity. It will be a tough balancing act but Pakistan will have to walk that tightrope.
And that's why I think we should not go too far in our rivalry with India. Both countries and/or their respective populations are bound by geographical constraints to HAVE TO live with each other. And that time will eventually arrive. The European nations have been slaughtering each other in far, far greater numbers over the millennia than Indian/Pakistanis have ever done but Europe learned that cooperation and coexistence is mutually beneficial. And so shall India and Pakistan.

 

[Longhorn]

It worries me often to think about Pakistan's options viz a viz China should India offer a grand-bargain with Pakistan over Kashmir. I think it will be in Pakistan's interests to be at peace, if not friendly terms with India. PDF Pakistanis would hate me for saying this but, I believe, Pakistan will be a far better off place in case of peace with India than having a too deep alliance with China.
Everyone is for themselves in this world. While Pakistan should never betray those who are Pakistan's benefactors but Pakistan should ultimately look after it's own citizens' prosperity. It will be a tough balancing act but Pakistan will have to walk that tightrope.
And that's why I think we should not go too far in our rivalry with India. Both countries and/or their respective populations are bound by geographical constraints to HAVE TO live with each other. And that time will eventually arrive. The European nations have been slaughtering each other in far, far greater numbers over the millennia than Indian/Pakistanis have ever done but Europe learned that cooperation and coexistence is mutually beneficial. And so shall India and Pakistan.

I don't think Pakistan would have to choose between one or the other, neither would China have a problem with it.
As I said before Xi Jinping proposed as much in 2018, it was the Indians that rejected the proposal.

 

[vi-va]

It worries me often to think about Pakistan's options viz a viz China should India offer a grand-bargain with Pakistan over Kashmir. I think it will be in Pakistan's interests to be at peace, if not friendly terms with India. PDF Pakistanis would hate me for saying this but, I believe, Pakistan will be a far better off place in case of peace with India than having a too deep alliance with China.
Everyone is for themselves in this world. While Pakistan should never betray those who are Pakistan's benefactors but Pakistan should ultimately look after it's own citizens' prosperity. It will be a tough balancing act but Pakistan will have to walk that tightrope.
And that's why I think we should not go too far in our rivalry with India. Both countries and/or their respective populations are bound by geographical constraints to HAVE TO live with each other. And that time will eventually arrive. The European nations have been slaughtering each other in far, far greater numbers over the millennia than Indian/Pakistanis have ever done but Europe learned that cooperation and coexistence is mutually beneficial. And so shall India and Pakistan.

If Pakistan can have peace, why not? I have no problem in person if Pakistan can sign peace treaty with India.
But please also ask yourself, for so many years, so many India PM, why not happening?

India is not a country, it's a mix of multiple race, culture, religions, states, oligarchies, castes, languages and so on. No PM can decide for the whole INDIA.

After so many years, how many Indians will agree to sign peace treaty with Pakistan, and what kind of terms are acceptable?

It's the India domestic politics stopped any peace deal, and it's deteriorating.

 

[Thorough Pro]

Looks like current Indian civil and military leadership does not belong to the remaining 10% minority.

90% of Indians are 'idiots', Markandey Katju says

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...Markandey-Katju-says/articleshow/17536647.cms

i hope this answer your question.

 

[Path-Finder]

Is the dream dead for good already?

Or bharatis would continue to be delusional and would remain true to its reputation as the most ignorant nation in the world and keep dreaming about capturing Gilgit Baltistan?

NO NO NO, they are going to deal with China and then Pak will hand over Gilgit Baltistan to them. The mighty vedicks are coming.

 

[Meengla]

If Pakistan can have peace, why not? I have no problem in person if Pakistan can sign peace treaty with India.
But please also ask yourself, for so many years, so many India PM, why not happening?

India is not a country, it's a mix of multiple race, culture, religions, states, oligarchies, castes, languages and so on. No PM can decide for the whole INDIA.

After so many years, how many Indians will agree to sign peace treaty with Pakistan, and what kind of terms are acceptable?

It's the India domestic politics stopped any peace deal, and it's deteriorating.

There had been missed opportunities for peace. According to some Pakistani commentators, India was willing give more to give Pakistan under Vajpayee-Nawaz meetings when Vajpayee came to Pakistan in 1999. But then Kargil happened. Then in 2000, when Musharraf was in India, it were the Indian hawks who prevailed. Then 9/11 happened and, thanks to foreign terrorists and stupid Talibans, India got a golden chance to relentlessly pressure Pakistan. But even then Musharraf-Manmohan were reaching understandings which would have safeguarded Pakistanis and Kashmiris interests in a compromise.

So there have been progress and setbacks. All that is past and debatable. But I think we should look to the future. A future which is based on new realities--realities in which Pakistan has certainly neutralized the Indian threat to a large extent. As I see, Pakistan is on ascendance and India is being cornered. It's a good time to make the current hawks in India smell the coffee.

Also, I believe, contrary to what you are saying, Indian policy wrt to Pakistan is hostile not because India is not a real 'state'. A person like Vajpayee or Modi can certainly 'sell' peace to the Indian population and for that reason alone I'd like to see the Indian Right Wing in power.

Coming to the China debate-- I, like most Pakistanis, would never want to alienate China. China's threat of Veto in the UNSC alone is the best and most powerful diplomatic umbrella Pakistan has. But I also don't want to go so far in embracing China that real opportunities for peace with India are missed. As I said, Pakistan at peace with India offers more gains for Pakistan than an all embracing alliance with China.

What needs to happen is that the current hawks in India need to readjust their policies. They need to learn to live in the region and live in modern time; by that, I mean, becoming a Western poodle or trying to undo real or perceived injustices of distant history is not the way to go forward. It's a debate that needs to happen inside India--for India's own good. Will they have such a debate? I think so.

 

[waz]

Is the dream dead for good already?

Or bharatis would continue to be delusional and would remain true to its reputation as the most ignorant nation in the world and keep dreaming about capturing Gilgit Baltistan?

It was total bakwas and hot air from the Sanghi crowd. They knew they didn't have the capability to pull something like this, but just said it to show their 'muscular foreign policy'. This we all know has backfired massively with the Chinese assault.
They're the literal definition of a dog with no bite, or a paper tiger. Take your pick.
I'm surprised some Pakistanis took them seriously.

 

[pakdefender]

Indians wants an end of Pakistan , for them partition is an unfinished business , but I see in this thread that some Pakistanis still have delusions about having peace with India.

We might be getting an opportunity here with the emerging situation in the region to put a two way squeeze on the Indian entity and bring about meaningful changes in ground positions that will then automatically lead to people in the region living better lives rather than living under Indian occupation.

Several Indians are tweeting about reaching beijing in their tanks.

hahah what else can be expected from them

 

[Zarvan]

Is the dream dead for good already?

Or bharatis would continue to be delusional and would remain true to its reputation as the most ignorant nation in the world and keep dreaming about capturing Gilgit Baltistan?

When it comes to Indians and their policy makers the realm of stupidity is quite big, therefore nothing can be ruled out but for now China has given them a rude jolt and awakening.

 

[BATMAN]

It's a bad news!! Pak should have done that....

*I am working on complex and difficult English grammar rules. I want to be as good as the Indian General Staffs in that regard

Principally yes, but lately Pakistan has stop acting as a sovereign state.
We don't even hide that we are being advised or puppeteered by foreign states.

When it comes to Indians and their policy makers the realm of stupidity is quite big, therefore nothing can be ruled out but for now China has given them a rude jolt and awakening.

Hey your English have improved.... you have come long way ever since your launch!