Gwadar port to be operational by year end :Chinese official

[Mrc]

Gwadar port shud be made a tax heaven .... that will lead to rapid develooement

 

[VCheng]

Time will tell if it is going to be super success as you have said or turn into something else as the interest of UAE ports are at stake as well and do not forget the new port of Iran underdevelopment. India will succeed no matter what game your nation plays. If Pakistan is confident about its success than why are they proposing rail link between Gwadar and Chabahar.

And it would be appropriate to keep in mind that China is building a high-speed rail link to Tehran as well, to link up to tracks beyond:

http://www.theguardian.com/business...l-steams-ahead-as-cargo-train-arrives-in-iran

http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/first-direct-train-from-china-arrives-in-iran/

http://qz.com/557009/chinas-next-big-idea-is-a-high-speed-railway-to-iran/

May be that is why all the over-hype about Gawadar comes from Pakistani sources, endlessly parroting each other from the same script, and never from China, who see it as just as the important project it is for Pakistan only.

Not really, even if the 5% is inaccurate (it isn't, because this is public knowledge that you can google yourself. It's even on this very forum), you still have engaged in fallacies and have not addressed a single one of my points.

You're simply wrong, so I will not agree to disagree. If you want to end this conversation, just simply stop responding.

Sir, please consider the hundreds of millions of tons of Chinese exports and imports in total, and then consider the planned capacity of Gawadar. Pushing through 5% of China's volume through Gawadar is a physical impossibility. It just ain't gonna happen.

As for the port, it is a stalled project due to basic mismanagement. The basic idea of providing an alternative to Karachi in case of it being unable to function effectively (blockade, terrorism in city) along with providing the Chinese an alternative route for their fears of being blockaded on their traditional trade routes was good.
Yet, in the 18 odd years I have been hearing about it; from claims by ministers on putting A380's on Gwadar's tarmac because the idiots cant think beyond that, to military men claiming that the Chinese will put their entire fleet there to protect us from India; the port has done absolutely nothing.

It is not because its not a good idea or project but because it has been constantly plagued by the rampant corruption in our society. Not government or civilians or military.. but our entire society is corrupt or rather is used to acquiescence to corruption. It will improve with media exposure and general education ( the anti-VIP movement and the current Panama papers are slowly pushing through)..but its not going to be overnight.

Gawadar is an important project for Pakistan to provide for an alternate port. But a major global trade route or hub for China, or anyone else, it will never be, since alternatives are better all around the region. That is all I am saying. Is there any incorrect in that?

China is fast developing infrastructure to link up Kazakhstan to Xinjiang province.
The pieces are being put together to make this project drive a lot of trade beyond just China and Pakistan.

Let us hope that we successfully manage our internal affairs to leverage this potential.

As I mention above, China is going through CAS to Iran and beyond as well. Gawadar is just a side-track. It already has the northern and southern direct freight links via Russia to Germany for this reason as well.

 

[That Guy]

I live in Pakistan so no, What you're saying is neither hard to hear nor a surprise. Education budget needs to be increased to 4% of GDP and every paisa of that budget must be accounted for. The state must provide 12 years of quality education to all students. A revolution through education is what we need. But as I said, I don't see that happening anytime soon.

Actually, the education budget needs to be increased to at around 8% of the budget, if you want any real meaningful impact, but that is not affordable currently.

Again, it takes time.

Sir, please consider the hundreds of millions of tons of Chinese exports and imports in total, and then consider the planned capacity of Gawadar. Pushing through 5% of China's volume through Gawadar is a physical impossibility. It just ain't gonna happen.

That's 5% a year, not a day. Karachi takes care of 65 million tons a year, and Gwadar is being built to eventually handle a greater amount. Why do you think everyone keeps talking about Gwadar, and not Karachi?

This is my last reply, @Oscar is right, I won't waste anymore of my time.

 

[jupiter2007]

Army should be in control of the whole project. otherwise government will take the money from Chinese and shift to offshore accounts, then goodbye gwadar..

 

[VCheng]

That's 5% a year, not a day. Karachi takes care of 65 million tons a year, and Gwadar is being built to eventually handle a greater amount. Why do you think everyone keeps talking about Gwadar, and not Karachi?

Still the numbers do not work out. 5% is 5%, per day or per annum, as the ratio of the total tonnage of Chinese imports and exports for the same time period. (All of that also has to pass over the Khunjerab.)

 

[That Guy]

Still the numbers do not work out. 5% is 5%, per day or per annum, as the ratio of the total tonnage of Chinese imports and exports for the same time period. (All of that also has to pass over the Khunjerab.)

Did you not read a single damn thing I wrote? It's like talking to a brick wall!

No, screw it, I promised I wouldn't reply, so that's enough of that.

 

[VCheng]

This is taken from the formal report from Little on Gawadar, if anyone is interested:

(Please pay attention to the Implications column.)

Here is their prediction for traffic in 2055:

 

[iPhone]

Let me respond point by point:

1. Whatever money China is investing or loaning is being done with high rates and sovereign guarantees by Pakistan. China has its risks covered, while Pakistan remains on the hook to repay the money, with interest and returns.

Can you elaborate a little more on that. As to what the interest rates on these loans are? And how the pay back terms are laid out? Just the meat and potatoes, if you don't mind.

 

[VCheng]

 

[Who.Cares]

This is taken from the formal report from Little on Gawadar, if anyone is interested:

View attachment 300752

(Please pay attention to the Implications column.)

Here is their prediction for traffic in 2055:

View attachment 300753

View attachment 301030 View attachment 301031

2055 Predictions

 

[VCheng]

Sir why u want to shatter their dream

Sometimes such dreams hide nightmares. One should keep one's eyes open.

 

[All-Green]

View attachment 301030 View attachment 301031

Chongqing is near east coast of china, thus the shipment cost is seemingly very cheap via sea when compared with Gwadar.
However Chongqing is not the objective of the Gwadar route so this comparison is not accurate in terms of primary business case which is based on western provinces and their industrialization etc.
For eastern part of China, Gwadar shall be a strategically alternative route.

Xingjiang province is a huge province and the most western part of China.
It is surrounded mostly by Tibet and Qinghai which have a lot of tough and elevated terrain and are extremely large provinces as well.
Now Chongqing is not even adjacent to Tibat and Qinghai, so such a comparison is misleading as it ignores Xinjiang as a destination and origin point.
Once you consider Xinjiang, its distance from east cost and the extremely tough terrain in between; then you realize the potential.
The primary business case is of Xingjiang province which is being industrialized as part of a massive development initiative.

 

[VCheng]

Chongqing is near east coast of china, thus the shipment cost is seemingly very cheap via sea when compared with Gwadar.
However Chongqing is not the objective of the Gwadar route so this comparison is not accurate in terms of primary business case which is based on western provinces and their industrialization etc.
For eastern part of China, Gwadar shall be a strategically alternative route.

Xingjiang province is a huge province and the most western part of China.
It is surrounded mostly by Tibet and Qinghai which have a lot of tough and elevated terrain and are extremely large provinces as well.
Now Chongqing is not even adjacent to Tibat and Qinghai, so such a comparison is misleading as it ignores Xinjiang as a destination and origin point.
Once you consider Xinjiang, its distance from east cost and the extremely tough terrain in between; then you realize the potential.
The primary business case is of Xingjiang province which is being industrialized as part of a massive development initiative.

Please note Point#1 in my post #142 above. The economic potential of Western China needing large scale transportation is limited.

After a decade long struggle pakistan need something like this to lift the spirit of nation . Otherwise people will start lose faith in nation

Building faith on false hopes is always a losing game.

 

[ssethii]

@Syed.Ali.Haider
Why you try so hard to play devil's advocate. You are not an economist so your analysis about this project is as good as my analysis of a person in bad health. Even if it's not going to be successful we Pakistanis should be last ones to complain about the prosperity of a foreign investment in a barren piece of land except for the legends we are hearing from generations about it's strategical importance.

 

[All-Green]

Please note Point#1 in my post #142 above. The economic potential of Western China needing large scale transportation is limited.

My aim was to point out the irrelevance of the transit costs to Chongqing shared by yourself when considering Xinjiang as a major component of this strategic project.

Xinjiang is really far away from east coast China and the journey spans extremely large provinces with tough terrain to boot. The costs over land will be significant even from east coast China and are mostly ignored in the shared example due to the point of reference being Chongqing which is very close to east coast.
Once you add in cost of transportation from Chongqing to Xinjiang, it shall go up.
Conversely the cost from Gwadar to Xinjiang will be significantly lesser than Gwadar to Chongqing.

P.S. Cargo from Xinjiang is not considered inconsequential in your referred post 142.