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Gripen E : Beyond Hype , “Reality is much stormier, much murkier, much scarier”

@PARIKRAMA And a small wait more , and all about " Cheap " Gripen will be gone....

By no way one can sell a newer variant of Scorpio 4WD cheaper than the stock 2WD older models of Scorpio.... can they ?

Now they have the "Brazil Deal " to harp about .... lets see how long they peddle the lies.

If we want Cheap aircrafts ....UAC officials are ready with a red carpet.

If the second line is that important ( which if we look at the numbers of IAF , cab be said as needed ) , then the most correct option will be between Mig35 and SH...

And its pretty sure , the second line

1. Will happen only if the cost benefits are big over build ing same numbers of Rafales and brings strategic aids to IAF and Indian Aerospace Industry

And

2. It will be twin engined.
 
So when every one is pitching a fighter, I should do the same, I propose this:

The Marlboro fighter

cigarette-pack-fighter-jets_2.jpg


LOL!!!!!!
Now this fighter jet will smoke:smokin: all the other jets out.
It'll turn em to ashes.:omghaha::omghaha:
 
Technically i dont understand nor see a good viable solution for operating FGFA, PAKFA, AMCA, Rafale NG, Super Sukhoi and then these F16/F35 especially F35.. I think it will be too heavy in terms of cost versus operational availability perspective.

So i feel all this is just empty window shopping (LM, Boeing and Saab) being done by our MOD.
Tax-payer ka maal, dariyaa me daal...
 
Gripen E : Beyond Hype , “Reality is much stormier, much murkier, much scarier”
Published July 15, 2016

SOURCE: Vinayak Shetti / FOR MY TAKE / Editor of Indiandefencenews.in

573c9a9735708ea2d59debe1.jpg


On May this year Saab rolled out first pre-production Gripen E aircraft at its facility in Linkoping Sweden which was attended by many high profile Swedish VVIPs along with Airforce Chief of Brazilian Air Force . In attendance was the presence of a high number of Aviation/Defence Journalist from around the world who were flown in specially to cover the event, which also saw sizable Indian media contingent specially flown in by SAAB.

Development of Gripen E is no doubt a major enhancement in capabilities and a thorough overhaul of every element of the basic Gripen design but Hype which SAAB has unleashed in India by unprecedented Sponsored media coverage of it latest Gripen E offering to India as part of the ‘Make in India’ initiative is much stormier, much murkier, much scarier which needs to be exposed to carry out fine assessment of latest SAAB’s offer to India .

Saab Gripen NG Forever in making !

Gripen E begin has a low-cost internal SAAB program nearly decade ago when SAAB rolled out modified Gripen D dubbed has Gripen NG ( Next Generation ) which incorporated many of the proposed Gripen E changes from a new engine, redesigned landing gear and new cockpit layout, which first flew in 2008 and logged some 300 flights .

MMRCA Failure

SAAB offered India initially it’s older sibling Gripen C/D but withdraw its offer after competition saw new entries and offered Technology Demonstrator aircraft dubbed Gripen NG .

Gripen NG was demonstrated in India during MMRCA trials performed well and proved in its highly claimed Net-Centric warfare capabilities and successfully demonstrated advanced data communications,dual data links , satellite communication and video links but failed to impress with other parameters and exposed its operational deficiency in technical evaluation round which was noted and not even contested by SAAB.

Backdoor Entry attempts

After Rejection of Gripen from MMRCA Tender , SAAB tried to make a backdoor entry where it again offered its Gripen fighter jets to India independently and parallel to MMRCA deal to replace India’s ageing Mig21 fleet but acceptance of that proposal could have obviously meant killing our indigenous LCA-Tejas program hence rejected again.

SAAB offered to establish a Joint venture company with DRDO, where Swedish company could have been holding the majority of share in the new company to help India develop LCA-Tejas Mark-2 in lieu of orders for its Gripen Fighter jets , which too was rejected .

Reading Fine Timeline of Gripen E Development

First, Gripen E Prototype rolled out in May this year will see its first flight only by the end of this year. while Swedish government has agreed to finance development of 3 Gripen E Prototypes, Second Prototype will be rolled out by next year with many key system pieces of equipment and third and final Prototype with all planned bells and whistles will take to air only in 2019 .

According to SAAB’s own assessment, Gripen E will require nearly 1200 sorties to conclude its development and Initial operational clearance (IOC) for Gripen E will come only in 2021 that’s when program will actually gain speed when the final and third Prototype Gripen E takes to air in 2019 with all planned upgraded equipment and Final operational clearance will be achieved only in 2023 which is nearly 7 years after its first rollout of Gripen E Prototype.


3-5 years Timeline for Indian orders

Jan Widerström who is SAAB India head and chairman confirmed in an Interview that from the date of the contract, SAAB will be able to deliver the first aircraft from the Indian soil only in 3 to 5 years , even if we assume that we have a contract by year end and the first aircraft is delivered by early 2020 which is 3 years from now then India will be clearly getting Pre-IOC certified aircraft since IOC is only planned for Gripen E only in 2021 and Swedish and Brazilian air force will be taking deliveries of IOC-certified Gripen E only by end of 2021 , so India will have to wait for nearly 5 years to get its hands only on IOC-certified aircraft .

Conclusion

DRDO plans to rollout IOC-certified LCA-Tejas Mark-2 by 2021-22 and plans to achieve it FOC in next three to four years if you compare IOC and FOC of both aircraft, India will better off in concentrating in the development of its own indigenous LCA-Tejas .

if Indian Air force which repeatedly refused to accept and allow mass production of IOC-II certified LCA-Tejas MK-1 aircraft in past will have a difficult time explaining why it will be open to acquiring Gripen-E with limited capabilities when it has curtailed orders for Tejas MK-1 which will achieve its FOC by March 2017 and upgraded Tejas MK-1A could have already entered production by the time Swedes could have rolled out first Gripen-E for India.

http://idrw.org/gripen-e-beyond-hype-reality-much-stormier-much-murkier-much-scarier/


+++
Comments
Pls refer my earlier post here

View attachment 317956
https://defence.pk/threads/dassault...ussions-thread-2.351407/page-270#post-8447719
  • 5 years for IOC certified version
  • 7 years for FOC certified version
  • This article kind of supports what i had said before with the post
  • Its now clear how SAAB is running just a PR campaign and the deal structure as well as the aircraft itself will not be available 7 years from signing as well
  • Its good DM MP is clear he wants aircraft production by 4th year onwards and is looking at substantial technology to be shared and funded with codes.
  • This will help all folks understand how we require a much better deal and why DM MP is a tough negotiator
  • If Rafale deal is "costly" as per folks and if its offset involves everything right from radar, engine, spectra, stealth, MDBA missile help (seeker), LCA , AMCA help, SSN, AIP help, and much more.. then it makes sense that other competing MII partners for separate line also provide us with similar tech and at cheaper price.
  • At $85 Mn flyaway +weapons $25 Mn (non common to IAF pool) + similar package (support, training, maintainence, everything) price pushing everything to around $220 Mn +/-10% is a hefty price to pay for a pre FOC single engined jet who is competing to be LCA competitor.
  • I am expecting a similar article revealing the truth for F16 deal from LM soon..As well as all the carrots dangled to us

@Abingdonboy @anant_s @Taygibay @Picdelamirand-oil @Vergennes @randomradio @MilSpec @Koovie @Echo_419 @Dash @hellfire @ito @SR-91 @AMCA @DesiGuy1403 @ranjeet @hellfire @fsayed @SpArK @AUSTERLITZ @nair @proud_indian @Roybot @jbgt90 @Sergi @Water Car Engineer @dadeechi @kurup @Rain Man @kaykay @Joe Shearer @Tshering22 @Dandpatta @danger007 @Didact @Soumitra @SrNair
@TejasMk3@jbgt90 @ranjeet @4GTejasBVR @The_Showstopper @guest11 @egodoc222 @Nilgiri @SarthakGanguly @Omega007 @GURU DUTT @HariPrasad @JanjaWeed @litefire @AMCA @Perpendicular @Spectre@litefire @AMCA @Perpendicular@Ryuzaki @CorporateAffairs @GR!FF!N @migflug @Levina

@SvenSvensonov : Tagging you too.. The circus is pretty lively..but then i am sure you can enjoy the joker acts (either us or the jet makers)
As we have been saying all along, the Gripen E does not present an attractive option.

Thats what is now needed.. Its a bit high time we bring this circus to close..
  • Rafale deal and MII for twin engine
  • Use offsets and get technology + Kavery engine + Kaveri engine evolution
  • LCA pvt sector line and ramping up numbers
  • Indigenous LCA Mk2/LSA Ghost go ahead with a fixed timeline
Now THIS is a plan.

All boxes are ticked here and there is no duplication of services. For the love of god this is what will be pursued if Parrikar has any sense there is simply no need for a second MII line beyond the Rafale and the Gripen, F-16 and F-18 all are comprimsed products/offers that would eventually negatively affect India's operational capabilties or strategic autonomy.

Again, if Parrikar and the PM have any sense they will stop enterataining SAAB, LM and Boeing's offers once this Rafale saga is wrapped up. The LCA is now heading in the right direction, it should be devloped into the beast we all know it can be getting the F-16 or Gripen would ensure it is killed off. With the help of France many critical Indian projects (Kaveri, EW systems, WVR missiles etc) will benefit.

There is absolutely nothing to be gained from the American or Swedish offers that is worth selling the country for.

Unlike other companies, SAAB would hesitate little in ToT.
What ToT can SAAB offer that is of any value to India? On some servos? The most sensitive tech's IPRs are not owned by SAAB and thus India would not gain acsess to anything of great benefit for itself. SAAB is a lead intergrator and little more, HAL is not far behind them on this front.
 
All boxes are ticked here and there is no duplication of services. For the love of god this is what will be pursued if Parrikar has any sense there is simply no need for a second MII line beyond the Rafale and the Gripen, F-16 and F-18 all are comprimsed products/offers that would eventually negatively affect India's operational capabilties or strategic autonomy.

Again, if Parrikar and the PM have any sense they will stop enterataining SAAB, LM and Boeing's offers once this Rafale saga is wrapped up. The LCA is now heading in the right direction, it should be devloped into the beast we all know it can be getting the F-16 or Gripen would ensure it is killed off. With the help of France many critical Indian projects (Kaveri, EW systems, WVR missiles etc) will benefit.

There is absolutely nothing to be gained from the American or Swedish offers that is worth selling the country for.
Also for the sake of commonality and ease of maintenance stick with Rafale + LCA combo (IAF/Navy). Which sane air force would plan a future with 7+ different aircrafts to maintain ? Even wealthiest air force in the world chose F-35A for commonality with marine and navy.
 
gain, if Parrikar and the PM have any sense they will stop enterataining SAAB, LM and Boeing's offers once this Rafale saga is wrapped up. The LCA is now heading in the right direction, it should be devloped into the beast we all know it can be getting the F-16 or Gripen would ensure it is killed off. With the help of France many critical Indian projects (Kaveri, EW systems, WVR missiles etc) will benefit.

Actually SAAB have a good electronics and sensors, which India could take benifits from.

We can take help from SAAB for the world class production line for LCA, and redesign, and rearrangement of the LRU's to remove the defficiencies which IAF have put.

But there is no need for the whole product, called Gripen NG.

There is absolutely nothing to be gained from the American or Swedish offers that is worth selling the country for.

From SAAB.

RWR, MAWS, Mission Computers, Sensor fussion, Production Technique, Quality improvement, Rearrangement of LRU and airframe design, AESA GaN Antenna.

From U.SA

Design omptimisation of Airintake for LCA for F404 and F414 till Kaveri K-10 matured.
Help in Kaveri
Landing Gears, and for MK-2 arrestor development.
Radar Development.
 
We have a capability to pull something like gripen E on our own . No need to go for gripen. LCA Mk1+ shall be compared favorably to Gripen C. MK2 shall in Gripen E league. aval MK2 shall be in NG class. Just spend some more money on research and employ more man power. That is it.
 
LCA Mk1+ shall be compared favorably to Gripen C. MK2 shall in Gripen E league. aval MK2 shall be in NG class.

You are daydreaming my poor man! The LCA is nowhere near the Gripen on all counts!
But do read on to see why it doesn't matter ...


We can take help from SAAB for the world class production line for LCA,

No, absolutely not!
The Tejas has to be fixed in-house; it's imperative for India's future.
Let's be brutally honest and refer to my above answer to MULUBJA

in saying that the LCA is not a great success. But whatever the true
level of the achievement, it was an Indian venture and should be fi-
nished by India for two reasons.

First, there is already so much foreign in it that if you add SAAB tech
it won't be a local product anymore once fixed!

Second, one can learn even from abject failure ( and Tejas is still above that ).
The realization of one's errors allows for changes in direction to refine
a heading or process in general. That is already at work in the revision
of DRDO and the proposition of a private line alongside HAL's own for
either Mk1A or Mk2.

You want to Make In India? Well then, that includes Making Mistakes
In India. Deal with it ( both meanings )!

At worst, Tejas will never be all that great, more like reasonably useful.
Fine! Have it do minimal duty as a replacement to the foreign planes &
retire it a bit early by modern standards. There's no shame in that as long
as the lessons are learned and correctives applied.

Here the correctives should be found in the following local project : AMCA.
That's why the ToT from the Rafale deal is, apparently so, based on helping
the next projects.

If you must have SAAB know-how, get it for LCA's successor! ( Like LSA thinghie )
Because getting it for Tejas would be like sub-contracting your homework!!!

A bit less dreams & feelings and a bit more pride and hard work, please!
Yes, you can! Just do it! ... all the motivational slogans you want but go!!!

Tay.

 
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We have a capability to pull something like gripen E on our own . No need to go for gripen. LCA Mk1+ shall be compared favorably to Gripen C. MK2 shall in Gripen E league. aval MK2 shall be in NG class. Just spend some more money on research and employ more man power. That is it.

The great expert don't know the difference between Gripen NG and Gripen E.
But in the tradeoff between the lives of Indian Air Force pilots, and Indian Ego, there is a clear decision.
The Indian Government seems to have a different view, or MII fighter competition would not be.
 
You are daydreaming my poor man! The LCA is nowhere near the Gripen on all counts!
But do read on to see why it doesn't matter ...




No, absolutely not!
The Tejas has to be fixed in-house; it's imperative for India's future.
Let's be brutally honest and refer to my above answer to MULUBJA

in saying that the LCA is not a great success. But whatever the true
level of the achievement, it was an Indian venture and should be fi-
nished by India for two reasons.

First, there is already so much foreign in it that if you add SAAB tech
it won't be a local product anymore once fixed!

Second, one can learn even from abject failure ( and Tejas is still above that ).
The realization of ones errors allows for changes in directions to refine
a heading or process in general. That is already at work in the revision
of DRDO and the proposition of a private line alongside HAL's own for
either Mk1A or Mk2.

You want to Make In India? Well then, that includes Making Mistakes
In India. Deal with it ( both meanings )!

At worst, Tejas will never be all that great, more like reasonably useful.
Fine! Have it do minimal duty as a replacement to the foreign planes &
retire it a bit early by modern standards. There's no shame in that as long
as the lessons are learned and correctives applied.

Here the correctives should be found in the following local project : AMCA.
That's why the ToT from the Rafale deal is apparently so based on helping
the next projects.

If you must have SAAB know-how, get it for LCA's successor! ( Like LSA thinghie )
Because getting it for Tejas would be like sub-contracting your homework!!!

A bit less dreams & feelings and a bit more pride and hard work, please!
Yes, you can! Just do it! ... all the motivational slogans you want but go!!!

Tay.


While I agree on 90% of what you said here, I don't agree with two things.

First, LCA's indigenous component is 60%. That's pretty good, especially considering the engine is foreign.

Two, the LCA is a very good design as far as supersonic performance is concerned. The Mk1A in particular will have a very high TWR, F-16 class, once it is ready. So as far as performance is concerned, it may not match Gripen E in subsonic maneuvering, but it will beat it in climb, acceleration and supersonic maneuvering, that's where they want the LCA to be anyway. Avionics can go many ways, LCA has too many options, Saab doesn't. A Snecma-GTRE engine upgrade will simply increase that difference. This engine will also increase the indigenous component of the LCA, so it takes care of Point 1.

Saab may be joining as a development partner, that doesn't mean anything bad for LCA. Right now EADS is a development partner and they have provided a lot of help, but not enough help. That's why undercarriage tech will come from France through Rafale and Saab will provide help in other aspects. They have offered critical Gripen tech only if IAF purchases Gripen.

And this bit is not in the open domain completely but the private line for the LCA died last year. Parrikar killed it. There was never a plan for two lines, IAF wanted to give the same order that they gave HAL last year to the private sector in order to kill HAL's monopoly. They promised $12B worth of orders for this, including funding the line. This was when HAL was supposed to get Rafale through MMRCA. Now, Parrikar has given LCA to HAL and taken Rafale away from them. So the IAF succeeded in doing what they wanted at a significantly lower cost. So stop repeating this, it's pointless.
 
And this bit is not in the open domain completely but the private line for the LCA died last year. Parrikar killed it. There was never a plan for two lines, IAF wanted to give the same order that they gave HAL last year to the private sector in order to kill HAL's monopoly. They promised $12B worth of orders for this, including funding the line. This was when HAL was supposed to get Rafale through MMRCA. Now, Parrikar has given LCA to HAL and taken Rafale away from them. So the IAF succeeded in doing what they wanted at a significantly lower cost. So stop repeating this, it's pointless.

Pls explain it and provide facts/links/articles/news to backup.
 
You are daydreaming my poor man! The LCA is nowhere near the Gripen on all counts!
But do read on to see why it doesn't matter ...




No, absolutely not!
The Tejas has to be fixed in-house; it's imperative for India's future.
Let's be brutally honest and refer to my above answer to MULUBJA

in saying that the LCA is not a great success. But whatever the true
level of the achievement, it was an Indian venture and should be fi-
nished by India for two reasons.

First, there is already so much foreign in it that if you add SAAB tech
it won't be a local product anymore once fixed!

Second, one can learn even from abject failure ( and Tejas is still above that ).
The realization of one's errors allows for changes in direction to refine
a heading or process in general. That is already at work in the revision
of DRDO and the proposition of a private line alongside HAL's own for
either Mk1A or Mk2.

You want to Make In India? Well then, that includes Making Mistakes
In India. Deal with it ( both meanings )!

At worst, Tejas will never be all that great, more like reasonably useful.
Fine! Have it do minimal duty as a replacement to the foreign planes &
retire it a bit early by modern standards. There's no shame in that as long
as the lessons are learned and correctives applied.

Here the correctives should be found in the following local project : AMCA.
That's why the ToT from the Rafale deal is, apparently so, based on helping
the next projects.

If you must have SAAB know-how, get it for LCA's successor! ( Like LSA thinghie )
Because getting it for Tejas would be like sub-contracting your homework!!!

A bit less dreams & feelings and a bit more pride and hard work, please!
Yes, you can! Just do it! ... all the motivational slogans you want but go!!!

Tay.


Lets be brutally honest !!!

India tried its first indegenous fighter plane as MARUT for Ground attack combat Plane. Though MARUT was the excellent design, and one of the Cleanest Airframe of its Time, the project was hit by the west by denying the Engine it was designed and required, and Soviet didn't have the required engine. This hit the project, and the Marut remains underpower, till it was retired, and IAF goes for the Anglo-french Jaguar. The blow was tremendous and the whole effort and the tech. gains made were wasted, and the team of HAL consiquently retired. This makes India very cautious with the LCA, and remove the engine dependency, national turbofan engine project Kaveri was linked with the LCA project.

LCA project though is the project of ADA, but for that for that hundred of state labortory have to created for various technologies, validation, certifications which was not in the country earlier.

attachment.php


If we compare the SAAB Gripen NG, they already had the experience of the Draken, and Gripen A/B/C with an active experience of various projects in European, and the technologies and LRU's developed by various European and U.S OEMs. SAAB had access to world class global labs, for testing and technical help.

The original plan for LCA was simple, build a plane for the replacement of MIG-21MF, MIG-21Bis, with low cost, tailess Delta plane, with the modular design concept powered with indegenous Kaveri Engine, and with Erriscon PS-05/A I/J-band multi-function radar.

But then, PAF started equip themself with the top fighter plane in the whole South Asia, the F-16 A/B. So IAF was forced to change its ISQR, which increases the LRU counts which increases the wt, and consequently increases the thrust requirement.

ADA was created and took the help from the Dassalt for the design of the LCA

LCAtejas.jpg


Thus Kaveri was forced to be delinked from the LCA project.

For the Indegenisation percentage, lets be honest, no country makes 100% fighter of its own. For the diffrent electronics and lrus check this indegenous soulution being developed with LCA.

DSC00672.JPG
Larsen+&+Toubro-built+ILSS+for+Tejas+MRCA-1.JPG
AAR-60V2+MILDS+F+MAWS.jpg


Two critical technology was lagging for the LCA, which was Powerplant, a engine, and the MMR. For the engine the GE 404 engine have selected for the initial order, it dosen't means that Kaveri have been Scrapped, infact even today, ADA could fly the LCA with the Kaveri prototype, offcorse suboptimally like the Chinese did with their J-10 B.
With MMR, India was working on the AESA Radar from 90's secretely and yes till now it failed from developing any Radar which could be put inside the nose of the fighter plane.

What is the problem ??


Problem, is that DRDO/ADA makes the Bite too big, they can chew and the subsystem, would soon becomes obsolutes, and the process of higher model, and development should be continued. The reason for why they took the whole route of doing everything them self was explained above, but now we should leave the past behind and look forward.

My Suggestion

  • We should think what is attainable and what is not, and go for subsequently upgrades now.
  • All the Labs should be Decentrallized and expertize based, e.g One OEM developing Electronics should only focus on that part will full report of performance given to the RM anually.
  • HAL should be the Integrator, and all the Fuss ADA made with the IOC and FOC wouldn't have been there on the first hand, and ADA should be limited to only the desing and development agency.
  • National effort and project should be delared for the Turbo fan Tech (Chinese are investing 60 Billion in Fighter plane development and a big chunk going on the Engine)
  • A national Agency like DARPA in U.S to stop the situation when IAF looking at the ADA face, to tell them what they should buy or what they offer, and ADA looking at the IAF pls don't take 5 years to formulate the ASQR reading the Brouchers of various OEMs and didn't knew whethere it is achievable in one fighter plane.



Just google the number I gave.

And take note of this: And this bit is not in the open domain completely...

Then how do you know if not in Open Domain ??

You See I had seen Osama Bin Laden alive roaming in Mumbai yesterday buying tomatoes and this bit is not in the open Domain.

Baki lage raho with your LSA and Jockey with beating the Drum. There is one more Prasut Das a professor and Mtech in Mechanical Engineer, even he had a design of the future IAF plane with MIG-21 wings, go to its blogs and plans and projects, and even diagram and detailed design concept and pls don't forgot to invite him.

Do you know LCA was not the alone project which stated in 80's arround Dassault, there is a Romanian project with one prototype IAR-95 which was planned with the French Engine, and designed by Dassault

caract.gif


There was Indonesian Plan to build the plane with Dassault Design, and French Engine and not to forgot French Rafale. May be more.


How many survives.

And name one PVT OEM which have the experience and expertise to build the fighter plane in India, which you claim would start building the LCA in the 2nd Line, without having to train its staff nd technicians and invested to build a line and that too with the order of mere 100.

And do you know how many LRUs and subsystem does the HAL produced and have the IPRs, then you would know what's remains with the ADA,

How about that HAL, just give the subcontracts to the PVT contractors to provide the worksforce and subsystem manufacturing, so what's the big deal. HAL is the biggest OEM in India as far as Aerospace is concerned, and it is only capable of building the LCA as quickly as possible, only needed is to build the Tier 1 and Tier-3 subcontrators for the subsystems.
 

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