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Gorbachev: Victory in Afghanistan Impossible

The reason why Afghanistan is turning to be so difficult is because Taliban are using Pakistani territory as their hideout and making it difficult for NATO forces to attack them which would mean taking war to another country. If the borders were sealed tight from top to bottom, Taliban would be extinct ages ago.

This and also fundamentalist backers of Taliban who mostly sit outside in developed countries who covertly back them.

The problem is, no one here knows what US objective is. Because if it was obliterating Afghanistan completely and making it a unliveable wasteland, Afghan war would have been won by Soviets itself in first place.

Afghanistan can be dealt with if its borders with Pakistan are sealed shut and regulated strongly.
 
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The main initial US mission in Afghanistan was to work with Northern Alliance and throw out the Taliban government from Kabul, which they succeeded in doing, didn't they?

Incorrect. The main initial US goal in Afghanistan was to capture Osama bin Laden and his cohorts. This has not been done.

For where Afghanistan is today, would it have been possible without American involvement?

Uprooting Taliban from Kabul was game enough, the next challenge lies in preventing it from coming back.

Preventing them from coming back how? By providing the Taliban safe passage to be part of negotiations concerning the future structure of governance in Afghanistan? That doesn't sound like a great way of keeping them from "coming back"

Also, I think you need to develop a basic level of familiarity with the situation on the ground. You appear to have consumed the Kool Aid to an even greater degree than the politicians behind this whole mess. The Taliban never left. They faded away into the country side where they continue to control huge areas and from where they continue to launch attacks against NATO. It should have come as no surprise to anyone that this was going to be the Taliban's modus operandi, as the guerilla approach was discussed ad-infinitum in numerous articles that appeared in the 2001 timeframe.

As it stands, the Taliban appear to have considerably greater freedom of movement in Afghanistan than the NATO forces do. One example would be the logic used by NATO to abandon border posts along the Pak Afghan border... apparently NATO felt these were "indefensible".
 
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If the borders were sealed tight from top to bottom, Taliban would be extinct ages ago.

Pakistan had offered to seal the border which was rejected by Afghanistan and NATO.

Anyways, it is easy to blame Pakistan but you should look at the number of troops NATO has stationed at border compared to the number of Pakistani troops. Also, Pakistani outposts are at least three-times more than NATO border posts. None is stopping NATO or afghan forces to stop the incursions. Reality is that there are areas on both sides of the border which serve as sanctuaries. And, Taliban also stage attacks within Pakistan from these areas.
 
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Pakistan had offered to seal the border which was rejected by Afghanistan and NATO.

Anyways, it is easy to blame Pakistan but you should look at the number of troops NATO has stationed at border compared to the number of Pakistani troops. Also, Pakistani outposts are at least three-times more than NATO border posts. None is stopping NATO or afghan forces to stop the incursions. Reality is that there are areas on both sides of the border which serve as sanctuaries. And, Taliban also stage attacks within Pakistan from these areas.
Why would NATO reject a border sealing deal? Afghanistan rejects it because it doesn't regard the Durrand line as border between your countries which you can ignore. Or are you telling me that Afghanistan despite its crumbling state has so much influence in Pakistan?

Sealing Afghan-Pakistan border would mean a ban on movement of Taliban to come into your country, recruit fresh brainwashed youth and get back to attacking NATO troops. It would be a better solution for both NATO and Pakistani Army as both can cage Taliban and their terrorist associates in their countries and destroy them once and for all. I doubt NATO was involved into rejecting a border seal.
 
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The reason why Afghanistan is turning to be so difficult is because Taliban are using Pakistani territory as their hideout and making it difficult for NATO forces to attack them which would mean taking war to another country. If the borders were sealed tight from top to bottom, Taliban would be extinct ages ago.

Completely false. As has been discussed numerous times on this forum, the BULK of the attacks against NATO originate from inside Afghanistan, are carried out 100% by Afghanistan-based elements and are not hit-and-cross-the-border raids. Only those who seek to make excuses for NATO's poor military performance try to characterize the war within Afghanistan as a hit-and-cross-the-border campaign carried out exclusively by Taliban who seek refuge on the Pakistan side of the border, then enter Afghanistan for a couple of hours to shoot at some soldiers, only to run back across the border. If you think this is how the Taliban are controlling massive areas in Afghanistan, then you are incredibly naive, or incredibly ill-informed.

Pakistan has been providing humint and basing privileges to the US to carry out drone strikes against elements escaping across the border, and has also deployed more troops in this region than the entire NATO force in Afghanistan combined. The fact of the matter is that it is NATO which has abandoned border posts across the Pak Afghan border, while the Pakistan Army has increased the number of such posts.

If you are going to make excuses for NATOs failures, at least make ones that stand up to a superficial level of scrutiny. Your current position is a non-starter.

This and also fundamentalist backers of Taliban who mostly sit outside in developed countries who covertly back them.

Do you mean countries like Saudi Arabia to whom the US had just sold $60BN worth of weapons?

Afghanistan can be dealt with if its borders with Pakistan are sealed shut and regulated strongly.

Oh my dear Lord!!! What utter irony!! Pakistan has been repeatedly making the case for fencing and sealing the Afghan border, this has not been done due only to Afghan/NATO pushback. Why?? Think about it. Pakistan has been progressively strengthening border controls and Afghanistan/NATO have consistently been making them weaker!! First, when Pakistan introduced biometric ID cards to track border crossings, the Afghan border guards forcibly snatched these from individuals and cut them up. Then, NATO abandoned border posts. They refused to allow Pakistan to fence the border because Karzai wanted to "liberalize" the movement across the border, and NATO backed him on this!!

http://www.khaleejtimes.ae/DisplayA...ontinent_November205.xml&section=subcontinent

Pakistan to Use Mines to Stop Militants - washingtonpost.com

PLEASE educate yourself before jumping into the discussion. I am at a loss to understand where you are coming from.
 
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The reason why Afghanistan is turning to be so difficult is because Taliban are using Pakistani territory as their hideout and making it difficult for NATO forces to attack them which would mean taking war to another country. If the borders were sealed tight from top to bottom, Taliban would be extinct ages ago.

This and also fundamentalist backers of Taliban who mostly sit outside in developed countries who covertly back them.

The problem is, no one here knows what US objective is. Because if it was obliterating Afghanistan completely and making it a unliveable wasteland, Afghan war would have been won by Soviets itself in first place.

Afghanistan can be dealt with if its borders with Pakistan are sealed shut and regulated strongly.

it is an allegation without facts , look at the map , the had great resistance in helmend and still have .. now u see helmend is in very south and away from pushtoon belt of paksiatn , rather is baloch belt which is not part of taliban ...
and other thing if border is sealed , paksitan will be benifitting the most cos taliban present here are getting ammunation from afghanistan ....
look if nato would be willling to built fence and seal the border they would have done it long ago ...
paksitan alone can,t do it . because we don,t have enough funds ....
 
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Why would NATO reject a border sealing deal? Afghanistan rejects it because it doesn't regard the Durrand line as border between your countries which you can ignore. Or are you telling me that Afghanistan despite its crumbling state has so much influence in Pakistan?

Duran line is a dead issue. Not even the interested Afghans mention it openly. Why NATO would back such a proposal is open to debate. TechLahore has given some useful insight on this point.
 
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Just for you information though, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan is 2612 Kms long with mountainous terrain where peaks range upto 4000 meters.

Total foreign troop deployment in Afghanistan is less than Pakistan's troop deployment in FATA.

NATO/ANA border outposts number around 120-150 while Pakistan has more than 800 posts on the border.
 
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Incorrect. The main initial US goal in Afghanistan was to capture Osama bin Laden and his cohorts. This has not been done.

The fact that Osama and Taliban were hand-in-hand was known from Day 1. Going after Osama without breaking Taliban's neck in Kabul would be nonsensical. The Americans knew that.

Preventing them from coming back how? By providing the Taliban safe passage to be part of negotiations concerning the future structure of governance in Afghanistan? That doesn't sound like a great way of keeping them from "coming back"

Well, running away from Afghanistan too would not be a great idea, isn't it? We all understand that Afghan dynamics are too complex and need cohesive thinking on part of NATO in general and US in particular on taking this forward.

Also, I think you need to develop a basic level of familiarity with the situation on the ground. You appear to have consumed the Kool Aid to an even greater degree than the politicians behind this whole mess. The Taliban never left. They faded away into the country side where they continue to control huge areas and from where they continue to launch attacks against NATO. It should have come as no surprise to anyone that this was going to be the Taliban's modus operandi, as the guerilla approach was discussed ad-infinitum in numerous articles that appeared in the 2001 timeframe.

I never said Taliban left, I just said their rule in Kabul was uprooted which broke their backbone, forced their leadership to get dispersed (and perhaps hide in mountains!) and possibly wrecked many of their other terrorist plans.

The very fact that despite Al Qaeda releasing several tapes periodically threatening the West of more 9/11 like attacks but since they have failed to do so until now means that that US operations have worked until now.

Wasn't preventing another 9/11 type attack also a priority?

As it stands, the Taliban appear to have considerably greater freedom of movement in Afghanistan than the NATO forces do. One example would be the logic used by NATO to abandon border posts along the Pak Afghan border... apparently NATO felt these were "indefensible".

Sorry but no big deal.

Given Afghanistan's landscape, the fact that the Americans are killing terrorists for the last 10 years is no small military achievement.

I am not saying they are having a cake, but they are their job slowly.
 
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War in Afghanistan is a joke.
Please, tell me winning from whom?
All Taliban army is dead and now it is all new generation and if they have grievances with US than give them different name some thing like Ameri-khan.
 
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The fact that Osama and Taliban were hand-in-hand was known from Day 1. Going after Osama without breaking Taliban's neck in Kabul would be nonsensical. The Americans knew that.

Post 9/11, the Taliban had offered Osama up if the Americans were willing to have him tried in a muslim country. Even a US ally like Saudi Arabia or the UAE would have been acceptable. But for reasons best known only to Bush and his clique, this offer was refused. Bush then said that he would "smoke'em from their holes". Thus far, Osama, Zawahiri and Mullah Omar have not been "smoked", and it's been about 10 years.

Well, running away from Afghanistan too would not be a great idea, isn't it? We all understand that Afghan dynamics are too complex and need cohesive thinking on part of NATO in general and US in particular on taking this forward.

The only solution now is for the US to withdraw its military, keep a punitive presence in the Arabian sea and a minimal presence in Afghanistan, and pump in significant amounts of money ($15-30BN) over 5-7 years to rebuild Afghanistan and to allow Karzai to keep bribing warlords and the Taliban to prevent his otherwise imminent demise. NATO can not win in Afghanistan. If the NATO leadership had had the good sense to simply conduct some punitive airstrikes and then play the rest of the game with money alone, they would have spent only 2% of what they've spent on the campaign thus far and would have probably been in a better situation.

I never said Taliban left, I just said their rule in Kabul was uprooted which broke their backbone, forced their leadership to get dispersed (and perhaps hide in mountains!) and possibly wrecked many of their other terrorist plans.

The Taliban never had any global aspirations. It is Al-qaeda that has that sort of intent. Today the US is talking peace with the Taliban. No Taliban terrorist plans were wrecked because the Afghan Taliban - as said before - did not pursue global jihad. The Taliban were terrible news for Afghanistan, yes, but they didn't pose a threat to the west. Now, the Taliban have actually been emboldened by the failure of NATO to win a military victory in Afghanistan, and they have developed a blood feud with the US. None of this was necessary.

The very fact that despite Al Qaeda releasing several tapes periodically threatening the West of more 9/11 like attacks but since they have failed to do so until now means that that US operations have worked until now.

Bali bombings, London and Madrid attacks etc. etc. How quickly it is all forgotten. All of this happened after 9/11.

Wasn't preventing another 9/11 type attack also a priority?

The stated priority was to capture Bin Laden. In this, NATO failed. As for 9/11 type attacks, these occurred in Europe, and since NATO is responsible for European safety, to that extent, the campaign has been a failure even in that respect. It can be argued that European participation in NATO's Afghan activities have actually worsened security for all these states.

Finally, more US and western troops have died than the number of casualties due to 9/11, and the US is not any safer today since the war in Afghanistan has caused mass radicalization.

Given Afghanistan's landscape, the fact that the Americans are killing terrorists for the last 10 years is no small military achievement.

The net number of "terrorists" have actually increased since America started its operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. More people have been radicalized than Osama could ever hoped to have achieved on his own.

Finally, all your commentary clearly indicates that you don't understand the situation, so no point debating this with you any further.
 
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it was impossible from 2001 matter is they recognize it now. lol waste of billions and understand that they can call Russia and ask in 2001 this qes.
 
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War in Afghanistan is a joke.
Please, tell me winning from whom?
All Taliban army is dead and now it is all new generation and if they have grievances with US than give them different name some thing like Ameri-khan.

Pentagon should read history of Afghanistan again.

Punjab has same history as Afghanistan.
 
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Post 9/11, the Taliban had offered Osama up if the Americans were willing to have him tried in a muslim country. Even a US ally like Saudi Arabia or the UAE would have been acceptable. But for reasons best known only to Bush and his clique, this offer was refused. Bush then said that he would "smoke'em from their holes". Thus far, Osama, Zawahiri and Mullah Omar have not been "smoked", and it's been about 10 years.



The only solution now is for the US to withdraw its military, keep a punitive presence in the Arabian sea and a minimal presence in Afghanistan, and pump in significant amounts of money ($15-30BN) over 5-7 years to rebuild Afghanistan and to allow Karzai to keep bribing warlords and the Taliban to prevent his otherwise imminent demise. NATO can not win in Afghanistan. If the NATO leadership had had the good sense to simply conduct some punitive airstrikes and then play the rest of the game with money alone, they would have spent only 2% of what they've spent on the campaign thus far and would have probably been in a better situation.



The Taliban never had any global aspirations. It is Al-qaeda that has that sort of intent. Today the US is talking peace with the Taliban. No Taliban terrorist plans were wrecked because the Afghan Taliban - as said before - did not pursue global jihad. The Taliban were terrible news for Afghanistan, yes, but they didn't pose a threat to the west. Now, the Taliban have actually been emboldened by the failure of NATO to win a military victory in Afghanistan, and they have developed a blood feud with the US. None of this was necessary.



Bali bombings, London and Madrid attacks etc. etc. How quickly it is all forgotten. All of this happened after 9/11.



The stated priority was to capture Bin Laden. In this, NATO failed. As for 9/11 type attacks, these occurred in Europe, and since NATO is responsible for European safety, to that extent, the campaign has been a failure even in that respect. It can be argued that European participation in NATO's Afghan activities have actually worsened security for all these states.

Finally, more US and western troops have died than the number of casualties due to 9/11, and the US is not any safer today since the war in Afghanistan has caused mass radicalization.



The net number of "terrorists" have actually increased since America started its operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. More people have been radicalized than Osama could ever hoped to have achieved on his own.

Finally, all your commentary clearly indicates that you don't understand the situation, so no point debating this with you any further.

Well, thank you for ur insights but as we know that opinions can differ and this is one of those cases.

I have never been to Afghanistan, neither am I as close to the theatre of operation as much as you possibly are! My only source of such information is print and electronic media, defence forums and some ppl I know who are in the military.

Just my opinion --> I agree with you that US must withdraw but they must maintain partial presence and work alongside the Afghan government and its military police. As I said above, the dynamics are complex and Afghanistan needs time.

Also I would disagree on ur below comments:-
"........ and the US is not any safer today since the war in Afghanistan has caused mass radicalization."

Taliban/Al Qaeda today are not in the same state as they were before 9/11. American attack has scattered them and the constant drone attacks in the mountainous regions proves that.
 
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