Meengla
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Pakistan must put national interest ahead of all else in such grave & strategic matters. If I may offer some talking points for these hyper-critical negotiations with the Saudis:
1. The Saudi are spinning it as if Pakistan has eagerly volunteered to join this Saudi-led campaign. It serves Pakistan better to have the Saudi make a formal request through their foreign minister in Islamabad. Pakistan must NOT appear to be a grunt but a leader in any such endeavor. Nevertheless, if this campaign fails it must not rest at Pakistan's doorstep.
2. As an appreciation of this, GCC can make Pakistan a member country and also a honorary member of Arab League. [sic]
3. It is useful to remember that Egypt has a commitment for 25-45 Billion dollars from GCC as multi-layered investments, cash, and other indirect instruments. Gives Pakistan a sense of scale of things.
4. Pakistan's commitment must NOT be open-ended but defined in time and scope.
5. It is useful to review history of committing land forces to this desolate piece of real estate. The Turks, British, Egyptians and Mesoptamian armies were chewed up by craggy lunarscape that resembles Waziristan. And yes the natives can be just as unwelcoming as the Pashtuns.
6. Pakistan will not just be fighting the Houthis but their Sunni allies as well. So beware of Sunni-on-Sunni dimension.
7. Saudi did not think this through. They currently do not have an endgame in sight. They are hoping Mr. Obama will be compelled to intervene somehow.
8. GCC transfers approx. 60-80 Billion dollars annually as remittances to Indian economy. If GCC were to withhold some of this mega transfer of wealth in deference to Pakistan, can you imagine the effect on Indian policy posture regarding all things Pakistan?
9. Some of those air dropped weapons in Aden look oddly familiar...like those seen at recent Arms Exposition!!!!
10. Iran has just about broken out of the penalty box. She will expect Pakistan to fast track the pipeline. This would be an excellent time to ask Iran and Saudi to make Pakistan competing offers for mega refineries plus 45-90 day crude storage reserve facilities at the Gwadar port. Keeping all options and communications open with the Iranians is advised at this stage.
11. Do confer with Xi when he arrives later this month in Pakistan to formalize that Sino Pak Economic & Energy Corridor (SPEEC).
12. Finally, remember Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund is presently around 870 Billion dollars. If I were the negotiator, my opening bid would be 100-80 Billion. In the end whatever Pakistan earns from this useless quagmire, please invest it in AIIB (New Chinese Bank) as a nested Sovereign Fund. That will be the best investment in the future of Pakistan. Remember to match or better Indian share in this Infrastructure Bank. It is like an invite to Bretton Woods. Such opportunities only come by once in a lifetime; there will be many more Yemens! There is no better investment for Pakistan.
Great post!
But if, as the OP says, Pakistan can influence GCC to expel Indian workers during a war situation between India-Pakistan then that is not likely scenario: The last full scale "war" happened in 1971 and even an old man like me was a child then--though I do remember some.
***IF--and a big IF--Pakistan can replace Indian workers with Pakistani and BD workers now then it is a big long term investment for Pakistan.***