Geopolitics of ASEAN+ region

[ChineseTiger1986]

And we will be her friend untill China apologies for the atrocities in 1979.

What atrocities? Didn't you claim that you kicked China's a$$ in 1979?

 

[NiceGuy]

What atrocities? Didn't you claim that you kicked China's a$$ in 1979?

killing pregnant women, childrent is atrocities, if you don't say sorry, then, we will allow more US. warship to dock in VN harbours:

Time to hunt China's ship in SCS(east sea) for retaliation
Panetta wants more US's ships to Cam Ranh Bay

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...-uss-ships-cam-ranh-bay-vn.html#ixzz1wmOEBwzk

 

[Sonyuke_Songpaisan]

Thai will not side with monkeys.

 

[Battle of Bach Dang River]

I have seen the movie "killing fields" many years back, but I did not know the history then. If Vietnam with its invasion of Cambodia stopped Pol Pot, I thank and congratulate them for doing this service for humanity.

You can easily find it on the Internet, and then remove the word "if".

Having said that, the world has changed quite a bit since the 70's and 80's. China has changed a lot, so has Vietnam, but the power difference is rising astronomically. I am afraid China's military strength is growing much more rapidly than Vietnam's. This is because of many different factors, but being large and having economies of scale is helping China, while Vietnam is getting behind. Russia is no longer what it used to be, so although the US and to some respect India can also work as a balancer for Vietnam, the situation is not good in the long term, as US is not gaining ground against China and India is not truly a balancer for China, without the US.

Not only now, but always VN smaller and weaker than China.

This situation is also playing out in East Asia for Japan and South Korea, both of which are under security umbrella of the US and the situation will get more precarious every year.

So I think ASEAN+ arrangement will increasingly look attractive for all three states, actually 4, if we include the Philippines. The formation of ASEAN+ does not mean that individual states will have to leave security arrangement with the US. In fact, I think the US might also be interested to have a strong power as an ally which ASEAN+ have the potential to be. So I am hoping that the US will adopt the ASEAN+ model as an integral part of the Asian Pivot foreign policy direction which I have mentioned in this post:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180755-geopolitics-asean-region-2.html#post3001475

ASEAN+ member states has slightly more than a billion people, the land mass is slightly less than China and current GDP also far exceeds China. If the integration is done in a systematic and proper way without mistakes, the growth of this area can be high, which may keep it ahead of China in many respects.

The US will help to build solidarity in ASEAN and to build ASEAN+

The Chinese should not look at ASEAN+ as a threat. As a close neighbor, both China and ASEAN+ will have the closest of economic relations and will be dependent on each other. The security part of course will be separate and distinct for both. The interesting part for China will be that as ASEAN+ matures, it will become less and less dependent on the US, which will mean that the US bases in this region may not be necessary any more at some point. That will be the point when ASEAN+ will hopefully start charting a more independent course and may even become friendlier toward China, as China afterall is a neighbor, while the US is a distant power with not so much in common.

As for the overseas Chinese, lets look at some numbers:
Han Chinese - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Overseas Chinese - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is a very influential group of people in ASEAN+ group states. Instead of seeing their influence as a problem, I believe it is possible to turn this reality into an opportunity, by utilizing them as a lobbying group for ASEAN+ with the Chinese in China proper (China+Taiwan). After all, if ASEAN+ prospers, they prosper as well. ASEAN+ security and stability, is their security and stability as well.

While as an ASEAN+ state, Singapore has every right to be involved in ASEAN+ affairs, I do not think the same is true for China or any other state that is outside the group of member nations.

You have underestimated the extent of Chinese cunning. They are bad much more than which you can imagine.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

killing pregnant women, childrent is atrocities, if you don't say sorry, then, we will allow more US. warship to dock in VN harbours:

Time to hunt China's ship in SCS(east sea) for retaliation
Panetta wants more US's ships to Cam Ranh Bay

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...-uss-ships-cam-ranh-bay-vn.html#ixzz1wmOEBwzk

If you want to get buttraped by US again, then go ahead, that's your own problem.

 

[NiceGuy]

Thai will not side with monkeys.

Then , our Shaddock, CBU-55 will clear all Chinese-Thai like what we did in Laos-Camb. Native Thai will side with us after we snack Bangkok from Chinese-Thai and return it to them

btw:if any Chinese in ASEAN support-VietNam , then we wellcome them to stay.

If you want to get buttraped by US again, then go ahead, that's your own problem

Then, tell your leader not to give VN $$$ again when we ram more China's ship

 

[Sonyuke_Songpaisan]

Then , our Shaddock, CBU-55 will clear all Chinese-Thai like what we did in Laos-Camb. Native Thai will side with us after we snack Bangkok from Chinese-Thai and return it to them

btw:if any Chinese in ASEAN support-VietNam , then we wellcome them to stay.

Then, tell your leader not to give VN $$$ again when we ram more China's ship

can you pls act more mature? Be realistic! Just talk the truth.

 

[NiceGuy]

can you pls act more mature? Be realistic! Just talk the truth.

Did the lastest Thai-Camb conflict help you to understand what happend if Chinese-Thai ignore Vn's plan ??

 

[kalu_miah]

Yes a United ASEAN would be nice if only if ASEAN countries cared about each other not interfering but a genuine care for its members but sadly ASEAN is cut into two pro and anti china

Could you please mention the pro china and anti china nations in ASEAN-10.

anti china:

Vietnam, Philippines, ...

pro china:

Singapore, Myanmar, ...

 

[Battle of Bach Dang River]

Could you please mention the pro china and anti china nations in ASEAN-10.

anti china:

Vietnam, Philippines, ...

pro china:

Singapore, Myanmar, ...

If you say that "anti-China" is incorrect.
No country anti China, including the VN and PH.
We are only in opposition to China's expansionist.

As I mentioned above, most ASEAN countries want to benefit from China's growth, but they fear expansionist of China. It gives Uncle Sam a better position for Asian-Pacific strategic pivot...

 

[Battle of Bach Dang River]

My opinion, In the current ASEAN:

Philipines, Thailand: US Allies.
Singapore: US Friendly.
Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei: US Friendly.
Vietnam: US Friendly.
Myanmar, Lao, Cambodia: Influenced by China.

Among ASEAN countries, perhaps only Cambodia and Thailand are not worried China. The remaining countries are wary of China.

 

[kalu_miah]

You can easily find it on the Internet, and then remove the word "if".


Not only now, but always VN smaller and weaker than China.


The US will help to build solidarity in ASEAN and to build ASEAN+


You have underestimated the extent of Chinese cunning. They are bad much more than which you can imagine.

Per your suggestion, I read up a little on the killing fields and found that without a doubt Vietnam's invasion of the Cambodia to remove the Khmer Rouge regime and Pol Pot was a great service to humanity, so I edited my post and removed the "if" from there. I could not understand how China could support a regime that killed 2-3 million people, including 200,000 ethnic Chinese, almost 1/2 of ethnic Chinese minority population of around 425,000 in all of Cambodia:
Killing Fields - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So when China decided to punish Vietnam with 1979 China-Vietnam war, it was ironic that China was attacking Vietnam for a great humanitarian act, which saved ethnic Chinese lives in Cambodia. I guess communism in the form it was understood and practiced in both China and Cambodia, did strange things to the leadership and the people that followed them.

Also I am guessing for the Chinese, the Red Khmer (Khmer Rouge) was their "b**tards" and even if they killed a good 20% of their population, they were still ok with it. Killing for the sake of geopolitics and influence or for the sake of an ideology, not good at all, I must say.

This was also probably the Cambodian version of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution in China:
Cultural Revolution - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
that killed millions (1-20 million, estimate varies wildly it seems) in its own purges and persecutions.

May be you are right about my opinion on the Chinese, because I personally or our people have no direct experience with the Chinese. I do know that Koreans are extremely wary and suspicious of the Chinese, bordering on paranoia. But it may not be that important at this stage of the game. Because the Chinese are still much weaker compared to US/West who still have a combined GDP of 36 trillion dollars whereas China is still at 7.3 trillion (nominal). So the West led by USA still has an economy that is about 5 times bigger than China. Till the Chinese economy reaches close to the Western economy, ASEAN and proposed ASEAN+ would be better off to align with the US/West for the time being.

30 million Overseas Chinese in ASEAN are 5% of the 600 million total population, but probably they are the richest and most economically influential 5% with 1-2 trillion dollars in liquid capital. In ASEAN+ with a billion population, the percentage of overseas Chinese goes down to 3% (30/1000) and the addition of Japan and Korea in this group may cancel or at least balance out a lot of the influence of this influential minority in my opinion, as those two wealthy East Asian countries then may become the most influential groups in the proposed ASEAN+. But it will not be easy as these Overseas Chinese are essentially local people. I think ASEAN in its current form has this critical flaw, too much influence of wealthy Overseas Chinese who control almost all ASEAN countries economy and perhaps politics also and without inclusion of Japan and Korea in the proposed ASEAN+, the ASEAN group may not be able to realize its true potential, as it might be compromised from within. Please correct me if I am wrong about this.

More democratization and public awareness will also help to educate people, so they can make intelligent decisions about their future and thus reduce the influence of media propaganda run by the rich wealthy elite and their pet politicians in ASEAN+ countries. Here US/West can play a good role for strengthening civil society and democratic institutions further in ASEAN+ countries, as well as help with the formation and integration of ASEAN+. But the US/West itself have tremendous problems with their democracy, they have become oligarchies, where the wealthy elite 1% control the media, politics and even judicial system.

But I am not sure how the US feels about ASEAN+. Inclusion of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives will raise objection from India, a friendly nation and an US ally, a key player of the new Asian Pivot plan of the US, to contain China. Inclusion of Japan and South Korea may be problematic for the US itself, as these two countries are major non-NATO allies and are integral part of the US sphere of influence. Allowing Japan and South Korea to join ASEAN+ will mean that they will grow their own wings eventually and one day fly away from US sphere of influence as they become busy and involved with their joint "empire" in ASEAN+.

 

[DelhiDareDevil]

But I am not sure how the US feels about ASEAN+. Inclusion of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives will raise objection from India, a friendly nation and an US ally, a key player of the new Asian Pivot plan of the US, to contain China. Inclusion of Japan and South Korea may be problematic for the US itself, as these two countries are major non-NATO allies and are integral part of the US sphere of influence. Allowing Japan and South Korea to join ASEAN+ will mean that they will grow their own wings eventually and one day fly away from US sphere of influence as they become busy and involved with their joint "empire" in ASEAN+.

Sorry, but why would ASEAN want 3 small nations to join them, when bigger nations like India can instead.

It will be like Greece in EU, a tragedy!

 

[kalu_miah]

My opinion, In the current ASEAN:

Philipines, Thailand: US Allies.
Singapore: US Friendly.
Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei: US Friendly.
Vietnam: US Friendly.
Myanmar, Lao, Cambodia: Influenced by China.

Among ASEAN countries, perhaps only Cambodia and Thailand are not worried China. The remaining countries are wary of China.

That is an interesting list. Countries that have borders with China, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam will of course have problems with their large and powerful neighbor. Thailand and Cambodia do not have border with China so they are a safe distance away and also they do not have any SCS island disputes with China. Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei, do all of them have SCS island disputes? Is Singapore wary of China for some reason?

 

[Sonyuke_Songpaisan]

Did the lastest Thai-Camb conflict help you to understand what happend if Chinese-Thai ignore Vn's plan ??

No matter Thai or China, both dont bother to give Viets a glance.