Featured General Qamar Javed Bajwa to visit Saudi Arabia next week

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

bhai fault lies with us
we lack self respect
our military support is worth much less than we claim
we give them unskilled labour that they can get from India and Bangladesh
we owe them loans
our international standing is nil for them

That is all true. No denying that.

 

[LimaCharlie]

This bajwa guy is really starting to test patience..

 

[VCheng]

Remember that Iran-China $400 billion deal from few weeks ago?

That $400 billion Iran-China deal could not have happened without heavy Pakistani involvement.

Basically, in the eyes of Saudis, Pakistan was responsible for pumping $400 billion into Iranian economy vis a vis China.

Has such a deal been signed?

 

[VCheng]

Saudis cannot let Pakistan go just like Pakistan wont let Saudis down.

Please dont talk ofthe deviousness of Iran and its Ayatullahs. I dont want to open up on open forum but they are no better if not worse than the house of Saud. They have specific agendas and none of it is good.

Instead the Sauds and Nahyans are afraid to invest in Pakistan. India is a good market and trading terms are better as are people. There are other perks as well. We need a policy which will allow the Arabs to invest in Pakistan as well as India. However the present scuffle is much more than a few dollars. This is strategic planning which Pakistan is not happy about.

The Sauds are being selfish and Bajwa will be helpful in making them swallow a bitter pill of realization that bargains need to be two sided.

The pursuit of national interests is relentless and utterly devoid of personal attributes like deviousness or selfishness, or good and bad. Every country in the world is equally entitled, including Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia, to do whatever serves its own respective national interests, no more and no less. The art of diplomacy is merely to create alignments between national interests that benefit both sides for a period of time, since change is the only constant in international geopolitics.

I foresee Pakistan continuing to forge its own way ahead between the two opposing countries quite well, without taking any one side openly or totally. This will all be smoothed over, until the next situation arises.

 

[Readerdefence]

Then surely Bajwa`s end will be near! He already has quit low approval rating!

Hi a little off topic sir once been given extension always will complete his tenure no matter whatever the approval rate is obviously still more then the Abbotabad fiasco
Thank you

 

[Dalit]

forget placating or lollipop n my view Bajwa is called to explain his country for the insolence expressed by SMQ against the Saudi royal highness.

If that really is the case shame on Bajwa for even going to Saudi Arabia.

 

[Dalit]

The issue with Saudis is actually not Kashmir. I was watching a video from GVS News on YouTube that did an excellent analysis of the situation.

What basically happened is this: SMQ made some criticism in a statement about Saudis and OIC. At almost the same time Saudis suspended an oil deal and loan which was unrelated to anything SMQ said except the fact that it happened at around the same time. Indian media started speculating, they put 2+2 together and published a hit piece that Saudi is punishing Pakistan for brining up Kashmir at OIC by pulling oil deal and loan. However SMQ Kashmir statement and Saudi reaction is not related in any way besides the fact that it happened around the same time. Typically Indian media is garbage in Pakistan, but this story was a little bit different because Pakistanis themselves believe the same story about Saudis getting angry over Kashmir OIC that Indians cooked up and hence this is giving more credibility to Indian media on this story in Pakistan than normal because Pakistanis themselves are saying same thing as Indians.

Saudis are not angry about Kashmir. It might be a factor but it is a side issue for them. Saudis would not cancel an oil deal or call a loan over Kashmir dispute because Saudi is familiar with this Kashmir issue in Pakistan for decades and many years and it is not something new that happened recently. For Saudis, Kashmir is a tiny issue that does not matter to them or affect them in any way. Saudis do not care about Kashmir, it is irrelevant distraction for them, and they would not take drastic steps over something irrelevant to them like Kashmir. There is something else completely separate going on besides Kashmir that caused Saudis to react like this so suddenly. So Kashmir is not the reason for this tension.

Nothing in Kashmir has changed recently. But something else big in Pakistan did change recently.

Think outside the box. Kashmir is small for Saudis. There is a different problem involving Pakistan for Saudis way bigger than Kashmir.

There is something much bigger in Pakistan that is going on that is a problem for Saudis....

Something big has changed recently and suddenly in Pakistan and it is not Kashmir. Think bigger. Much bigger.

Now think about this:

1. What event and recent development happened in last few weeks that involves Pakistan and is very bad for Saudi?

2. What huge change could be a bigger problem for Saudi-Pakistan that has nothing to do with Kashmir?

Remember that Iran-China $400 billion deal from few weeks ago?

That $400 billion Iran-China deal could not have happened without heavy Pakistani involvement.

Basically, in the eyes of Saudis, Pakistan was responsible for pumping $400 billion into Iranian economy vis a vis China.

Saudis are furious at Pakistan for this. Not only was Pakistan at the table between Iran and China to sign this $400 billion deal, it was probably Pakistan that gave Iran and China the idea and brought them to the table to sign this deal in the first place by helping to facilitate and connect the two with CPEC infrastructure links. Now what incentive does Pakistan have to do something like this? From Pakistan's perspective, if the Iran-China deal is $400 billion, probably $100 billion of this will directly or indirectly find its way into Pakistan's economy through infrastructure links either connected, added, or merged from Iran to China into existing Pakistan CPEC infrastructure. It was also in Pakistan's interests to kick India out of Iran and stabilize its borders by getting Iran into Chinese camp. So this $400 billion Iran-China is great news for Iran, Pakistan, and China.

But you know who its bad news for? Saudis, Israelis, and US. Saudis were watching Pakistan in this deal like a hawk. Saudis don't care what Pakistan does in Kashmir, but with China's help, Pakistan singlehandedly engineered the single biggest economic deal in Iran's history since the Iranian Revolution, which set off every alarm in Riyadh. Saudis were caught blindsided and utterly flatfooted by this move. For years, Saudis thought Pakistan was their puppet and that they could ignore Kashmir without consequences. Well, actions have consequences, a lesson the Saudis would soon learn. While the Saudis were busy dumping Kashmir to focus on isolating Qatar and killing Jamal Khashoggi, Pakistan was quietly cooking up its own plans to distance itself from Saudis and get closer to Iran which gave Pakistan among the strongest support for Kashmir along with Turkey and Malaysia. An Iran-China deal was always a long shot that was never really possible on a big scale without Pakistan being onboard with it. For a while Pakistan didn't want to get involved in this, mainly due to what Pakistan believed to be Saudi pressure. However, a change of view and shift of opinion in Islamabad may have occurred after Saudi pressured Pakistan to boycott the Malaysia summit. In this sense, Kashmir was small the issue that triggered the much bigger issues later on. Imran Khan at some point must have realized that acting in alignment with Saudis would inherently mean going against Pakistan's national interest. And it is from this day that Pakistan began realigning itself, quietly with Iran on which Pakistan agrees on many issues. Iran supports Pakistan on Kashmir, but in reality, it is just a piece of one of many things that Pakistan and Iran agree on. Both agree that China is the future, both agree on Kashmir, both have economic difficulties, both share a border, both have common enemies with India/Israel alliance. Saudis disagree with both Iran+Pakistan on almost all of these key issues. It was natural that as both Islamabad and Tehran's tension with Riyadh and Washington increased that Pakistan would look to counter it by leveraging their influence in Tehran and Beijing as Tehran did in Islamabad. The result of this gradual realignment that started after Malaysia summit fiasco was Pakistan's increased willingness to take opposite side of Saudis over a period of time. The ultimate result of these efforts by Pakistan to bridge the gap between Iran and China economically and physically is the $400 billion deal that was unveiled recently.

While Saudis might not care what Pakistan does in Kashmir, they will be angry at Pakistan for facilitating recent Iran-China deal which is a much bigger deal for them than Kashmir as unlike Kashmir, a stronger Iran backed by Pakistan and China has grave implications that directly undermine Saudi interests. Saudis feel that they must punish Pakistan for this, and as it happened, this reaction happened to come at same time as SMQ statement on Kashmir even though Saudi tension has nothing to do with it other than a timing coincidence.

The Saudis should know that Pakistan won’t lose any sleep over their behavior on Kashmir. We are disappointed, but it is not the end of the world. We always talk about interests.

Well, the Saudis and Americans should indeed understand that for Pakistan a prosperous and united region is a vital interest. Even if this conflicts with US and KSA interests.

 

[araz]

The pursuit of national interests is relentless and utterly devoid of personal attributes like deviousness or selfishness, or good and bad. Every country in the world is equally entitled, including Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia, to do whatever serves its own respective national interests, no more and no less. The art of diplomacy is merely to create alignments between national interests that benefit both sides for a period of time, since change is the only constant in international geopolitics.

I foresee Pakistan continuing to forge its own way ahead between the two opposing countries quite well, without taking any one side openly or totally. This will all be smoothed over, until the next situation arises.

An excellent post. However perhaps beyond the surface what do you think has gone on to cause the outburst from SMQ. Do you think this was deliberate as other quarters are relatively quiet about it. It may be a state of shock or more likely uncertainty as to underlying motives.
A

 

[Dalit]

I sometimes feel strange when people refrain from sharing insight.

why not bring our Pakistani Brethren back to Pakistan who function as slaves in the Middle East and use them in building rail and road for CPEC projects.

Our focus should be to link ourselves to CPEC and the world bank project to connect Central Asia and Afghanistan and Iran through Pakistani and irani ports. Let’s focus on making our region stronger.

this is a watershed moment for us. We can end Paskistani slavery in Qatar, uae, Saudi

kv

I couldn’t agree more. Our people should be seen as a valuable human resource. Just like most Western nations view their people as a valuable asset. Unfortunately we view people as a burden. Let them rot in foreign nations and send back remittances which in reality amount to peanuts. This thinking should change.

 

[araz]

If that really is the case shame on Bajwa for even going to Saudi Arabia.

That is not a good post. Pakistan and Saudis go back a long way. I think we should try and maintain cordial and productive relationship with them as long as it does not compromize our national interests.
A

 

[Blacklight]

bhai fault lies with us
we lack self respect
our military support is worth much less than we claim
we give them unskilled labour that they can get from India and Bangladesh
we owe them loans
our international standing is nil for them

Sir, there is another issue at play as well. "Why should they risk a huge market (india) for us, when we left them hanging in Yemen." I dont think they have forgotten that.

 

[Blacklight]

That is not a good post. Pakistan and Saudis go back a long way. I think we should try and maintain cordial and productive relationship with them as long as it does not compromize our national interests.
A

A balanced approach, lets hope so

 

[HAIDER]

Imran Bhai! something is more than just that. Things are happening real time and on broader prospects, if you ask me.

Building of new regional block due to CPEC. All these move actually against isolating China and pushing back increase Chinese influence in the region, specially after pumping 400 billion dollar in Iran and adding in CPEC.
New trading currency is coming.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Sir, there is another issue at play as well. "Why should they risk a huge market (india) for us, when we left them hanging in Yemen." I dont think they have forgotten that.

it is true, they never forgive or forget. its simply not in their dictionary. what they have just recently done to their own royal cousins, uncles and nephews and other high ranking citizens in the recent purge is enough to clear any doubt about any special favors for Pakistan.
this visit might be completely on a different matter but I am sure our foreign minsters comments will come in to the discussion and Bajwa will have to face the "displeasure" personally face to face.

That is not a good post. Pakistan and Saudis go back a long way. I think we should try and maintain cordial and productive relationship with them as long as it does not compromize our national interests.
A

Amen to that

there is simply no other option for Pakistan. Saudi Arabia is too valuable to loose to Indians.

 

[TheDarkKnight]

Sir, there is another issue at play as well. "Why should they risk a huge market (india) for us, when we left them hanging in Yemen." I dont think they have forgotten that.

The issue is not what Saudis have not done for us vis a vis Kashmir. The issue is they threatened us with severe sanctions when we wanted to do something diplomatically in Kuala Lampur - and they were invited to attend as well. Similar threats and pressure is applied in developing economic relations with Iran - if they can have economic relations with India then they have no moral right to dictate our relations with Iran and Turkey. Secondly we left them hanging in Yemen just like they have left Pakistan hanging vs India, and just like they have left Kashmiris hanging after Article 370 reversal (and showered Modi with medals) and just like they are leaving Palestinians hanging vs Israel.