G-4 nations put joint bid for Security Council expansion

[indianspetsnaz]

@Martian it makes me wonder is the responsibility of the security council to secure peace of the earth or to keep people blowing each others brains out?

well its only a matter of time now really because by 2050 India will have the worlds largest economy and all that extra money from the economic growth will not bypass the military.

also why are you hiding under a different country's flags?

 

[Martian2]

@Martian it makes me wonder is the responsibility of the security council to secure peace of the earth or to keep people blowing each others brains out?

well its only a matter of time now really because by 2050 India will have the worlds largest economy and all that extra money from the economic growth will not bypass the military.

also why are you hiding under a different country's flags?

I though everyone knew about my background, but I'll repeat it for you. I'm a Taiwanese-American of Chinese ethnicity living in Boston. Hence, the American flags are appropriate when I picked my location over two years ago when I joined PDF.

Now, let's get to the analysis. I believe you are incorrect in making the highly speculative claim that "by 2050 India will have the world's largest economy." That is virtually impossible.

India has already started to hit its limits in BPO outsourcing. The growth rates of Infosys, Tata Consultancy, and Wipro have slowed down dramatically. Also, India has little presence in manufactured goods, because you have virtually no patents in manufacturing.

Since I believe India will be weaker in 2050 (due to looming Greek-like debt and interest payment problems which will set your country back by decades), the only path to an UNSC P-5 seat is through the argument of fairness.

The Chinese government has stated it would welcome an application to join the P-5 by the African Union (to represent over 800 million Africans), Brazil (to represent Latin Americans), and India. I believe this is the only realistic path to the UNSC P-5 for India.

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Greater China beats Germany in U.S. patents again!

For 2010, Greater China (i.e. China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) maintained its lead over Germany to retain the unofficial third-highest rank for countries that receive the most patents in the United States.

Patent Counts By Type And State/Country (01-Jan-2010 To 31-Dec-2010)

Patents granted by the United States for the year 2010.

1. U.S. 121,164 patents
2. Japan 46,978
(Greater China 13,654)
3. Germany 13,633
4. South Korea 12,508
5. Taiwan 9,635
6. Canada 5,511
7. France 5,100
8. U.K. 5,038
9. China 3,303
10. Italy 2,254
...
India 1,137
Hong Kong 716 (Patent office counts Hong Kong as a separate entity)
Singapore 633
Russian Federation 287
Malaysia 224
Brazil 219

These countries are sometimes mentioned by the media as the "next China":

South Africa 142
Mexico 115
Thailand 60
Argentina 59
Poland 56
Greece 54
Turkey 45
Philippines 40
Chile 27
Egypt 20
Ukraine 14
Indonesia 6
Vietnam 2

The world's four largest exporters for 2010 are (1) China, (2) United States, (3) Germany, and (4) Japan. Not surprisingly, the world's four largest exporters are also the world's four largest grantees of U.S. patents (e.g. United States, Japan, Greater China, and Germany).

Patents are critical in becoming a world manufacturing power and exporter, because it creates a technological barrier of entry. Patents prevent a corporation's product from becoming a commodity that competes on price alone. The higher revenues and profits, which result from a patented product, enable a company to spend more money on research and development.

This is a self-reinforcing cycle. The United States, Greater China, Japan, and Germany continue to grow richer from their patented export products. The attainment of world-leading patents is the aspiration of any nation that wants to develop, grow technologically powerful, and wealthy.

Looking at the meager annual patents produced by nations touted by the media as the next China, we can see that all of those nations will probably become stuck in the "middle income trap."

"History shows that while many countries have been able to make it from low income to middle income, relatively few have carried on to high income. To make the high-income transition, countries have to specialize more in selected areas where they can achieve economies of scale and technological leadership."

From 2009 to 2010, the number of U.S. patents received by China increased by 46%. Even without Taiwan's help, the trend indicates that China will eventually become a wealthy nation. After all, China's annual number of U.S. patents already exceeds those of wealthy Italy. The only thing that China needs is time.

At a superficial glance, the patent list shows that India may be a viable emerging patent power. However, sometimes numbers lie. In my judgment, India will also be unable to escape the "middle income trap."

India's strength is in services as the world's call center. Most of India's patents are most likely in software, but the market for call centers is limited. For 20 years, "India has been unable to increase manufacturing's share of the economy, a dynamic that drove industrial revolutions in the U.S. and in other Asian countries." (See Wall Street Journal Interactive Slide for Indian Sectors at In India, Doubts Gather Over Rising Giant's Course - WSJ.com)

There is one important caveat. The Indian government is attempting to create "China-like mega manufacturing hubs." If the Indian government can overcome the political obstacles to acquiring land and successfully establish its National Manufacturing Zones (NMZs) then India has the potential of escaping the "middle income trap." We will have to wait and see.

In conclusion, twenty years from now, the world in 2031 will look very similar to the world today. The only difference is that China will have become exponentially more influential in the future. There is no "next China." There is only one China. That's the only reasonable conclusion that we can draw from the list of the world's most powerful patent powers.

----------
[Note: These are my comments from last year on "China Claims #9 Rank In United States Patents!"]

For 2009, Greater China's 10,638 combined total patents (i.e. China's 2,270 + Taiwan's 7,781 + Hong Kong's 587) are greater than Germany's 10,353 patents. Greater China would rank third on the U.S. patent list. The patent ranks are important because they help to explain why China is the world's largest exporter and Germany is the world's second-largest exporter. Patents play an important role.

----------
[Note: These are my comments from two years ago on "Greater China outnumbers German patents."]

There are 70,000 Taiwanese companies on the Chinese Mainland. It is my guess that many Chinese exports incorporate not only Chinese patents, but also Taiwanese patents. The Taiwanese were a perennial #4 in U.S. patents received until they were passed by South Korea in 2008.

While the current number of Chinese patents appears to be insufficient to support a large high-tech export base, the combination of Greater China (i.e. Chinese, Taiwanese, and Hong Kong) patents should suffice.

Greater China's 10,370 patents (i.e. China's 1,874 + Taiwan's 7,779 + Hong Kong's 717) are greater than the number of German patents at 10,086.

U.S. Department of State - Taiwan (10/09)
"Significant migration to Taiwan from the Chinese mainland began as early as A.D. 500. ..... There are a number of small political parties, including the Taiwan .... in China, and more than 70000 Taiwan companies have operations there. .... In keeping with our one China policy, the U.S. does not support Taiwan ..."

 

[Shaurya]

I though everyone knew about my background, but I'll repeat it for you. I'm a Taiwanese-American of Chinese ethnicity living in Boston. Hence, the American flags are appropriate when I picked my location over two years ago when I joined PDF.

Now, let's get to the analysis. I believe you are incorrect in making the highly speculative claim that "by 2050 India will have the world's largest economy." That is virtually impossible.

India has already started to hit its limits in BPO outsourcing. The growth rates of Infosys, Tata Consultancy, and Wipro have slowed down dramatically. Also, India has little presence in manufactured goods, because you have virtually no patents in manufacturing.

Since I believe India will be weaker in 2050 (due to looming Greek-like debt and interest payment problems which will set your country back by decades), the only path to an UNSC P-5 seat is through the argument of fairness.

The Chinese government has stated it would welcome an application to join the P-5 by the African Union (to represent over 800 million Africans), Brazil (to represent Latin Americans), and India. I believe this is the only realistic path to the UNSC P-5 for India.

----------

Greater China beats Germany in U.S. patents again!

For 2010, Greater China (i.e. China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) maintained its lead over Germany to retain the unofficial third-highest rank for countries that receive the most patents in the United States.

Patent Counts By Type And State/Country (01-Jan-2010 To 31-Dec-2010)

Patents granted by the United States for the year 2010.

1. U.S. 121,164 patents
2. Japan 46,978
(Greater China 13,654)
3. Germany 13,633
4. South Korea 12,508
5. Taiwan 9,635
6. Canada 5,511
7. France 5,100
8. U.K. 5,038
9. China 3,303
10. Italy 2,254
...
India 1,137
Hong Kong 716 (Patent office counts Hong Kong as a separate entity)
Singapore 633
Russian Federation 287
Malaysia 224
Brazil 219

These countries are sometimes mentioned by the media as the "next China":

South Africa 142
Mexico 115
Thailand 60
Argentina 59
Poland 56
Greece 54
Turkey 45
Philippines 40
Chile 27
Egypt 20
Ukraine 14
Indonesia 6
Vietnam 2

The world's four largest exporters for 2010 are (1) China, (2) United States, (3) Germany, and (4) Japan. Not surprisingly, the world's four largest exporters are also the world's four largest grantees of U.S. patents (e.g. United States, Japan, Greater China, and Germany).

Patents are critical in becoming a world manufacturing power and exporter, because it creates a technological barrier of entry. Patents prevent a corporation's product from becoming a commodity that competes on price alone. The higher revenues and profits, which result from a patented product, enable a company to spend more money on research and development.

This is a self-reinforcing cycle. The United States, Greater China, Japan, and Germany continue to grow richer from their patented export products. The attainment of world-leading patents is the aspiration of any nation that wants to develop, grow technologically powerful, and wealthy.

Looking at the meager annual patents produced by nations touted by the media as the next China, we can see that all of those nations will probably become stuck in the "middle income trap."

"History shows that while many countries have been able to make it from low income to middle income, relatively few have carried on to high income. To make the high-income transition, countries have to specialize more in selected areas where they can achieve economies of scale and technological leadership."

From 2009 to 2010, the number of U.S. patents received by China increased by 46%. Even without Taiwan's help, the trend indicates that China will eventually become a wealthy nation. After all, China's annual number of U.S. patents already exceeds those of wealthy Italy. The only thing that China needs is time.

At a superficial glance, the patent list shows that India may be a viable emerging patent power. However, sometimes numbers lie. In my judgment, India will also be unable to escape the "middle income trap."

India's strength is in services as the world's call center. Most of India's patents are most likely in software, but the market for call centers is limited. For 20 years, "India has been unable to increase manufacturing's share of the economy, a dynamic that drove industrial revolutions in the U.S. and in other Asian countries." (See Wall Street Journal Interactive Slide for Indian Sectors at In India, Doubts Gather Over Rising Giant's Course - WSJ.com)

There is one important caveat. The Indian government is attempting to create "China-like mega manufacturing hubs." If the Indian government can overcome the political obstacles to acquiring land and successfully establish its National Manufacturing Zones (NMZs) then India has the potential of escaping the "middle income trap." We will have to wait and see.

In conclusion, twenty years from now, the world in 2031 will look very similar to the world today. The only difference is that China will have become exponentially more influential in the future. There is no "next China." There is only one China. That's the only reasonable conclusion that we can draw from the list of the world's most powerful patent powers.

----------
[Note: These are my comments from last year on "China Claims #9 Rank In United States Patents!"]

For 2009, Greater China's 10,638 combined total patents (i.e. China's 2,270 + Taiwan's 7,781 + Hong Kong's 587) are greater than Germany's 10,353 patents. Greater China would rank third on the U.S. patent list. The patent ranks are important because they help to explain why China is the world's largest exporter and Germany is the world's second-largest exporter. Patents play an important role.

----------
[Note: These are my comments from two years ago on "Greater China outnumbers German patents."]

There are 70,000 Taiwanese companies on the Chinese Mainland. It is my guess that many Chinese exports incorporate not only Chinese patents, but also Taiwanese patents. The Taiwanese were a perennial #4 in U.S. patents received until they were passed by South Korea in 2008.

While the current number of Chinese patents appears to be insufficient to support a large high-tech export base, the combination of Greater China (i.e. Chinese, Taiwanese, and Hong Kong) patents should suffice.

Greater China's 10,370 patents (i.e. China's 1,874 + Taiwan's 7,779 + Hong Kong's 717) are greater than the number of German patents at 10,086.

U.S. Department of State - Taiwan (10/09)
"Significant migration to Taiwan from the Chinese mainland began as early as A.D. 500. ..... There are a number of small political parties, including the Taiwan .... in China, and more than 70000 Taiwan companies have operations there. .... In keeping with our one China policy, the U.S. does not support Taiwan ..."

Yeah, so "greater" China is being used which was already well developed by outsiders to claim "China is the patent superpower" etc. I don't know about patents but China definitely is a copy-cat superpower ...

 

[Martian2]

Yeah, so "greater" China is being used which was already well developed by outsiders to claim "China is the patent superpower" etc. I don't know about patents but China definitely is a copy-cat superpower ...

China works hard to develop its own technology. Here are some examples.

Rotor for 1,000MW ultra-supercritical Steam Turbine | China's Great Science and Technology

"Rotor for 1,000MW Ultra-supercritical Steam Turbine
November 9, 2011

China has already manufactured a 12% Chromium high-quality forged rotor for an 1,000MW USC (ultra-supercritical) steam turbine under high pressure.

China’s strategy to meet its greenhouse gas commitment is to continue full steam ahead by converting its coal-fired power plant fleet from a conventional one to an ultra-supercritical one — a move that will decrease its energy intensity from coal-generated power by more than 20 percent.

A coal-fired power plant operates by boiling water to create a high-pressure steam that drives a turbine which produces electricity by moving an electrical wire through a magnetic field.

A conventional (or subcritical) plant typically operates at temperatures up to 1,050 degrees Fahrenheit and has an efficiency of between 33 and 39 percent. Operating a plant at higher temperatures and pressures can increase its efficiency, potentially lowering emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the process.

A so-called supercritical plant operates at sufficiently high pressures and temperatures (between 1,000 and 1,075 degrees Fahrenheit) such that the water and steam become indistinguishable (the critical point of a liquid), allowing efficiency rates to reach 42 percent. An ultra-supercritical plant operates at temperatures of 1,075 degrees Fahrenheit and above and can achieve efficiencies of more than 42 percent.

China has jumped into the ultra-supercritical game with both feet. It is busy building supercritical and ultra-supercritical power plants at an astonishing rate — a whole lot faster, by the way, than we are here in the United States. And China’s ultra-supercritical power plant that went online in Yuhuan in 2006 reportedly holds the record as “the world’s cleanest, most efficient and most advanced ultra-supercritical units” with an efficiency of 46 percent.

Until now, the key high temperature equipment for supercritical and ultra-supercritical power units were mainly imported from foreign countries. China currently requires our national enterprises to domestically manufacture the key high temperature equipment. For making seamless tubes and large pipes, Chinese enterprises will be equipped with more 35MN, 60MN and one 350MN extrusion machines in the near future.

Large-scale castings for 1,000MW USC steam turbine already can be made in China. Large-scale forging have been also trial-produced. High-purity low alloy steel forging for low pressure rotor and 12% Cr high-quality forged rotor for 1,000MW USC steam turbine high pressure rotor are made in China."

----------

Shanghai Synchrotron Radiation Facility Opens to Science Researchers

Shanghai Synchrotron Radiation Facility is a third-generation synchrotron radiation light source. Until now, SSRF is the largest scientific platform for science research and technology development in China. (Photo: SSRF)

The photo taken on March 16, 2009 shows the interior of the Shanghai Synchrotron Radiation Facility (SSRF). The 1.2 billion yuan (or $175 million U.S. dollars) synchrotron radiation project in Shanghai will be fully operational in late April. SSRF is a great tool for the Chinese science research community and industry. (Xinhua/Pei Xin)

Researchers perform experiments at the Shanghai Synchrotron Radiation Facility (SSRF) in China on March 16, 2009. (Xinhua/Pei Xin)

Shanghai Synchrotron Radiation Facility Opens to Scientific Researchers---Chinese Academy Of Sciences

"Shanghai Synchrotron Radiation Facility Opens to Scientific Researchers
2010-01-29

Shanghai Synchrotron Radiation Facility (SSRF), a third-generation of synchrotron radiation light source passes national inspection on January 19 and will be open to home and abroad scientific research, according to Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (SINAP).

SSRF is the biggest scientific platform for science research in China up to now. The construction of the project started on Dec 25th, 2004 in Shanghai, and cost 1,200 million yuan (about 176 million U.S. dollars).

The facility consists of three accelerators: a 150Mev electron LINAC, a 180-meter booster that can increase the electron energy from 150MeV to 3.5GeV in 0.5 second, and a 3.5GeV electron storage ring with a perimeter of 432 meters. The project also includes 7 initial beamlines and experimental stations.

The mega experimental platform will then help carry out research on life sciences, medicine and pharmacy, new material, physics, chemistry, petrochemical industry and biotechnology.

[Many] hundreds of scientists and engineers from universities, institutes and industries in domestic and even overseas will be able to use the facility to [perform] research and experiments.

ZHANG Xiaoqiang, Vice Chairman of China?s National Development and Reform Commission, CAO Jianlin, Vice Minister of China?s Ministry of Science and Technology, JIANG Mianheng and ZHAN Wenlong, Vice Presidents of the CAS and experts from related areas attended the inspection and acceptance conference held in Shanghai."

Point Grey Research - Insights January 2007

"[It] will provide x-ray, infrared and ultraviolet beams of exceptional brightness. These will be used by scientists and engineers for research and development in many fields including biomedical science, medical research, environmental sciences and physical sciences.
...
What is a Synchrotron Light Source?

A synchrotron light source is a very large machine designed to produce intense beams of light. Millions of times brighter than an X-ray, synchrotron light is generated by using powerful magnets to accelerate electrons that are traveling near the speed of light. Infrared, ultraviolet and X-ray light is shone down beamlines to end stations (small laboratories) where scientists can select different parts of the spectrum to view the microscopic nature of matter, and investigate it at the scale of atoms and molecules. Synchrotron light is an indispensable tool in many research areas including physics, chemistry, materials science and crystallography, and is increasingly being used in medicine, geological and environmental studies, structural genomics and archaeology. Many everyday commodities, from chocolate to cosmetics, drugs, surgical tools, computers and mobile phones, have been developed or improved using synchrotron light."

----------

China and Taiwan have caught up with U.S. advanced five-axis machine tools

Advanced high-precision five-axis machine tool fabricating an engine block

"Foreign companies in China and Taiwan have caught up with U.S. technical capabilities, rendering stringent U.S. export controls moot." (see first paragraph in news article)

Let's do the math. From the seventh paragraph, 45 foreign companies produce advanced five-axis machine tools in the BRIC+Taiwan countries. "China has 20 indigenous five-axis machine tool companies; Taiwan has 22." 45 - 20 (in China) - 22 (in Taiwan) = 3 left in Brazil, Russia, and India combined.

For comparison, "there are six American companies dedicated to producing five-axis machine tools." (see fourth paragraph in news article)

U.S. Precision Machine Tool Industry Is No Longer A Global Competetitive Force

"U.S. Precision Machine Tool Industry Is No Longer A Global Competitive Force

March 5, 2010 Volume 17, No. 4
By Richard A. McCormack
richard@manufacturingnews.com

U.S. producers of some of the most technologically advanced machine tools are in trouble, according to an assessment by the Department of Commerce. Sales of high-precision five-axis machine tools are declining. U.S. share of global exports is in a free fall. Foreign companies in China and Taiwan have caught up with U.S. technical capabilities, rendering stringent U.S. export controls moot. U.S. companies are being purchased by foreign rivals. A lack of training programs has created a shortage of skilled workers able to use the complex machinery. Commercial and U.S. government customers prefer foreign machine tools. Export controls are hampering foreign sales. The entire U.S. machine tool industry spends only $1 million a year on research on five-axis machine tools.

These are some of the findings from a "Critical Technology Assessment" conducted by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security.

U.S. producers of five-axis machine tools had sales of $253 million in 2008, down 11 percent from 2005 sales of $284 million. That was before the U.S. machine tool industry suffered a meltdown in 2009, when domestic consumption tumbled by 60.4 percent, according to the Association of Manufacturing Technology.

Sales of five-axis machines to domestic customers from U.S. producers declined by 19 percent from 2005 to 2008, from $242 million in 2005 to only $195 million in 2008. There are six American companies dedicated to producing five-axis machine tools, and at least 20 in China. Five-axis tools are used for the production of precision components in the aerospace industry, in making gas and diesel engines, automobile parts, and throughout the medical, textile, oil, glass, heavy industrial equipment and tool industries. "Many other industries are discovering the advantages of these machines," says the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS).

Yet "only a handful of U.S. producers actually manufacture five-axis machine tools in high volume and most generate less than 10 percent of their annual net finished machine tools sales from five-axis machine tool business lines," according to the market and technology research report from BIS.

U.S. producers of five-axis machine tools exported only $58 million worth of equipment in 2008. In a tally of global exports of all machine tools, the United States -- with exports of $740 million -- accounted for only 4.3 percent of global exports in 2007.
...
BIS also assessed foreign producers of five-axis machines. It found that not one of the 45 companies that are indigenous to Brazil, China, India, Russia and Taiwan use U.S. technology, parts, components or materials. China has 20 indigenous five-axis machine tool companies; Taiwan has 22. None of these companies have to deal with the types of export restrictions facing American firms. As a result, these companies are able to produce all the machine tools that are in demand in China and Taiwan, plus they are "able to produce in sufficient quantity to export to other LRCs," says BIS.

One of China's five-axis machine tool makers has 24 distinct models. China now has 28 companies capable of building more than 1,000 CNC machine tools. There are 130 Chinese companies with annual capacity of more than 100 machine tools. The country is now supplying most all of its own demand, with only 10 percent of the market being supplied through imports. "In 2005, approximately 59,600 units of CNC machine tools were produced in China," according to the BIS report. In 2007, the combined amount of CNC metal-cutting and forming tools produced in China was 126,268, more than double the amount produced in 2005. China is now supplying its own demand for five-axis machine tools used throughout its military.

The BIS quotes the Export Compliance Working Group of the American Chamber of Commerce in the People's Republic of China as saying: "Given the existing domestic and joint venture development and the foreign availability of high-level machine tools, U.S. companies could not make a material contribution to China's military development. China's military demands are already satisfied by domestic and foreign supply."

The United States exported 515 five-axis machine tools between 2005-2007, and only 12 of these went to China. DMTG, China's largest producer of machine tools, exports products to more than 100 countries.
...
The report is located at U. S. Bureau of Industry and Security defenseindustrialbaseprograms/osies/defmarket researchrpts/final_machine_ tool_report.pdf."

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BYD to sell F3DM-model electric cars in Shanghai

"The "DM" or "Dual Mode" F6DM and F3DM both have a 1.0L gasoline engine combined with a 50kW motor and a 20kW power generator. Their 19.8kWh batteries alone are capable of running 100km, the company says. The FD6M initial cost? 50,000 yuan ($7,150) more expensive than the base model, so in total around 150,000 yuan (about US$21,500). Half the price of the Prius in China now."

"Motor in BYD F3 DM
Left the 1 litre 50 kW gasoline engine, right the 50 kW electric engine. Above the engine controller."

"The Household Charge Port and Quick Charge Port are seen on a F3DM electric vehicle. BYD F3DM, China?s first mass-produced electric vehicle by BYD Auto, is a gasoline-electric hybrid plug-in vehicle, using a small gasoline combustion engine to charge the car?s battery. When fully charged, it can run as far as 100 to 110 kilometers by electricity. (Photo by China Photos/Getty Images)"

China Business News: BYD to sell F3DM-model electric cars in Shanghai

"BYD to sell F3DM-model electric cars in Shanghai

Jul. 30, 2010 (China Knowledge) - China's largest rechargeable battery maker and a well-known automobile producer, is set to sell the F3DM hybrid vehicle to customers in Shanghai by the end of the month, the Shanghai Daily reported.

The F3DM, the world's first mass produced plug-in hybrid car model, is able to have a 60-kilometers drive on a single charge. The battery can be fully charged in seven hours at a household outlet, and semi-charged in 10 minutes at a professional one.

BYD may also raise the output target of F3DM this year in anticipation that the government's stimulus plan will boost sales, said an official within the company.

The Chinese government plans to invest RMB10 billion, to speed up the commercialization of new energy vehicles. It aims to have 500,000 green cars on the roads by 2012. Subsidies up to RMB60,000 will be granted for purchasing a new energy vehicle.

MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co, a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Inc that is controlled by Warren Buffett, holds a 10% stake in BYD."