Future of Europe, 2024

[Cybernetics]

I don't think many European nations would be fully pro-Russia but it is likely Eastern and Central Europe (including Germany) seek to normalise relations with Russia if given the opportunity. It is not in their national interests to be anti-Russia if there isn't antagonism from Russia. European sanctions against Russia made little sense for the Europeans but made lots of sense for the Americans. It was "Kill With a Borrowed Knife"-Sun Tzu.

Eastern Europe is seeking a separate framework outside the EU to conduct business and foreign policy due to certain roadblocks from current frameworks. One such framework is 16+1/CEEC. From my understanding a major fracture point between Eastern Europe and Brussels is the immigration policy and the tool to enforce immigration policy is economic. If Eastern and Central Europe is able to have more options regarding economic opportunities then immigration policy set by the EU would have less of an effect along with many other policies, enabling more independent policy making.

16+1/CEEC overlaps with the OBOR initiative. Russia is an major part of the OBOR plan so with the development of 16+1/CEEC, relations between Eastern and Central Europe and Russia are likely to work towards normalisation. I cannot say whether they would be pro-Russia but likely less hostile and more willing to cooperate with Russia with less outside influence.

http://ceec-china-latvia.org/about

On a side note I find it interesting that Eastern Slavs call China Китай/Kitay which means Khitan/契丹 for the Khitan people.

 

[Wolfhunter]

Here is my detailed analysis that I associate posted elsewhere:

Overview:
Brexit has presented several challenges for Europe, beyond the financial and administrative challenges of a member state leaving the union, Europe has been suffering from a lack of integration and lack of engagement from its member states.

To quote Jean Claude Junker "Our Europe is not in a good state, there is not enough Europe in this union, and there is not enough union in this union".

This epigrammatic message underlines perhaps one of the greatest challenges facing the European union, which is how will France and Germany manage their cooperation and the role Germany will play in the new Europe.

Internal power struggles and discord among Western, Central and Eastern European member states and their internal interests provides a glimpse into the general lack of political will to achieve the EU's objectives of building stability in Europe and along its strategic borders, in line with the European Neighbourhood Policy, 2004.

Security:

On the security front, with threats fromhybrid warfare and frozen conflicts along the crucial eastern border with Balkan states, uncontrolled migration, risk of returning foreign fighters, asymmetric warfare and individual self-radicalisation; Europe faces some considerable security challenges over the coming years.

Furthermore, the European Union's membership of NATO means that Russia sees the Union as a strategic buffer forNATO and a challenge to its long-term interests to exert Russian influence in the region bordering eastern Europe.

Russia has been engaged in testing the E.Us boundary lines and response times through snap exercises. Moscow's doctrine of Anti access and area denial seeks to deny NATO forces any access in key areas bordering Russia such as the Black Sea, Baltic Sea, the far north and easternMediterranean by deploying missile batteries and anti-air defences.

The hardening of Moscow's posture towards the EU has come as a result of the EU's stance towards Russia, which mirrors NATO policy of maintaining deterrence through superiority.

The E.U's reliance on NATO's deterrence mantra is ultimately no guarantee against small scale surprise Russian offensives such as the one seen in South Ossetia,Georgia in 2008 and the support of partisan forces as witnessed in the Crimea, ultimately due to Russia's ability to leverage its nuclear assets to its tactical advantage.

Russia's ambition is to regain the strategic depth it lost with the dissolution of the Soviet Union should be a cause for concern for Europe.

In recent years, in light of political uncertainty in Europe and U.S frustrations in Afghanistan and Syria, Russia has capitalised on the chaos to showcase its role as a major power broker.

Russia has engaged China and Pakistan to host talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan in at attempt gain importance in the international relations arena as a broker for peace and regional stability.

Russia continues to see the Georgian NATO membership bid as expansionism and thus will continue to pose a risk to E.U ambitions of stability and greater integration.

With frozen conflicts in Georgia and Ukraine, the risk of a flashpoint along the eastern border is a risk that the EU mustaddress by taking the Visegrad group of nations into confidence on EUs future stance on Russia.

Another area of concern for Europe comes from the growing instability theMediterranean along the border of Greece and Turkey. The slow return of irregular migrants to Turkey from Greece has frustrated EU efforts to strengthen border controls.

Terrorism and countering extremist violence:

On terrorism and countering radicalisation the emerging trend for Europe's recent terrorism incidents have been self-radicalised individuals and groups sympathetic to ISIL propaganda.

The Mediterranean sea and the porous border between Greece and Turkey pose a risk of returning fighters infiltrating the country along with irregular migrants. The challenge here will be for Europe to engage turkey under the ENP.

Increased maritime patrols along the Mediterranean Sea and Turkish cooperation on controlling migration and expediting returns will be key to reducing the risk of foreign fighter infiltration.

Europe's key challenges will be how they handle foreign and domestic policies, control irregular migration, counter extremist narratives and increase cooperation on internal and external security.

In the years to follow, security will improve but it will be important for the EU tobalance the Triade of solidarity, greater integration and checks and balances.

References:


Migration as a security threat: internal and external dynamics in the European Union
Michela Ceccorulli, Forum on the Problems of Peace and War, Florence
GARNET Working Paper No: 65/09
April 2009

JOINT REPORT TO THE EUROPEANPARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE
EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE
OF THE REGIONS
Report on the Implementation of theEuropean Neighbourhood Policy Review

Report on the Implementation of theEuropean Security Strategy
- Providing Security in a Changing World -

EUROPOL TE-SAT 2016
Harretz - world News - Europe: deja Vu: Why is Russia Back in Afghanistan?

The Guardian - Jan 03 2016 - brexit is badfor Europe and Britain EU Referendum.

 

[TMA]

I want to ask the respected members of the forum about your opinion on the future of Europe. More specifically - which countries will be pro-Russian in 2024, the last year of Putin's rule? We will consider that NATO and the EU have not changed, but pro-Russian politicians have come to power in some countries, and are ready to lift sanctions and form a Greater Europe including Russia.
I did not make the poll cause there are too many countries. So, please, write your answers and thoughts.
My list:
Hungary,
Bulgaria,
Serbia,
Czech Republic,
Slovakia,
Italy,
Austria,
Netherlands,
Greece,
Germany.

Vostok, I do not know, but one thing rest assured, is that those who control power in Modern Western civilizations will HATE Russia with even greater passion...

 

[vostok]

Vostok, I do not know, but one thing rest assured, is that those who control power in Modern Western civilizations will HATE Russia with even greater passion...

Nevertheless, Russia's positions in many countries of Europe have become much stronger than they were in the 90's and 2000's. Almost all European countries have powerful right-wing or left-wing political parties oriented on Russia. I admit that eventually these forces will come to power and the political map of Europe will change.