SOME DOD AND CONTRACTOR
CLAIMS OVERSTATED
-------------------------------------------------------- Letter :5.1.5
As requested, we analyzed numerous Desert Storm performance claims
and found from the available data that DOD, individual military
services, and manufacturers apparently overstated the Desert Storm
performance of certain aircraft and weapon systems that used advanced
technologies. We found justification in several instances for the
congressional concern that some contractor claims may have been
overstated. For example, some key claims concerning the F-117, the
TLAM, and LGBs, among other advanced systems, were either misleading,
inconsistent with available data, or unverifiable because of the
absence of data.
F-117s. DOD's title V report stated that 80 percent of the bombs
dropped by F-117s hit their target--an accuracy rate characterized by
its primary contractor, Lockheed, as "unprecedented." However, in
Desert Storm, (1) approximately one-third of the reported F-117 hits
either lacked corroborating support or were in conflict with other
available data; (2) the probability of bomb release for a scheduled
F-117 mission was only 75 percent; and (3) for these reasons and
because of uncertainty in the data, the probability of a target's
being hit from a planned F-117 strike in Desert Storm ranged between
41 and 60 percent.\18 Similarly, (1) F-117s were not the only
aircraft tasked to targets in and around Baghdad where the defenses
were characterized as especially intense, (2) F-117s were neither as
effective on the first night of the war as claimed nor solely
responsible for the collapse of the Iraqi IADS in the initial hours
of the campaign, (3) F-117s did not achieve surprise every night of
the campaign, and (4) F-117s occasionally benefited from jammer
support aircraft. (Analyses of F-117 bomb hit data are presented in
app. III; the ability of F-117 stealth fighters to achieve tactical
surprise is discussed in app. II.)
TLAMs. While TLAMs possess an important characteristic distinct from
any aircraft in that they risk no pilot in attacking a target, they
can be compared to aircraft on measures such as accuracy and
survivability. Their accuracy was less than has been implied. The
DOD title V report stated that the "launching system success rate was
98 percent." However, this claim is misleading because it implies
accuracy that was not realized in Desert Storm. Data compiled by the
Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) and DIA in a joint study revealed
that only [DELETED] percent of the TLAMs arrived over their intended
target area, and only [DELETED] percent actually hit or damaged the
intended aimpoint.\19
From [DELETED] TLAMs were apparently lost to defenses or to system
navigation flaws. Thus, the TLAMs experienced an en route loss rate
as high as [DELETED] percent.\20 (See app. III for a more detailed
analysis of TLAM performance.)
LGBs. The manufacturer of the most advanced LGB guidance system
(Paveway III) claimed that it has a "one target, one bomb"
capability. DOD officials adopted the phraseology to demonstrate the
value of advanced technology in Desert Storm. We sampled Paveway III
LGB targets and found that the "one target, one bomb" claim could not
be validated, as no fewer than two LGBs were dropped on each target.
Six or more were dropped on 20 percent of the targets, eight or more
were dropped on 15 percent of the targets, and the overall average
dropped was four LGBs per target. And larger numbers of Paveway III
and other LGB types were dropped on other targets. Moreover, as
noted earlier, an average of approximately 11 tons of guided
munitions--most of them LGBs--were used against targets that DIA's
phase III BDA messages showed were successfully attacked. This
notwithstanding, the number of LGBs required for point targets was
clearly less than the number of unguided munitions needed in this and
previous wars, especially from medium and high altitudes. (See app.
III for our analysis of the "one target, one bomb" claim.)
Table 1 shows some of the discrepancies between the claims and
characterizations of manufacturers to the Congress and the public
about the actual and expected performance of weapon systems in combat
and what the data from Desert Storm support. (App. III contains
additional examples of discrepancies between manufacturers' claims
and our assessment of weapon system performance in Desert Storm.)
Table 1
Manufacturers' Statements About Product
Performance Compared to Our Findings
Manufacturer Their statement Our finding
---------------- ---------------------------- --------------------------------
General Dynamics "No matter what the [F-16] The F-16's delivery of guided
mission, air-to-air, air- munitions, such as Maverick, was
to-ground. No matter what impaired and sometimes made
the weather, day or night." impossible by clouds, haze,
humidity, smoke, and dust. Only
less accurate unguided munitions
could be employed in adverse
weather using radar.
Grumman "A-6s . . . [were] The A-6E FLIR's ability to
detecting, identifying, detect and identify targets was
tracking, and destroying limited by clouds, haze,
targets in any weather, day humidity, smoke, and dust; the
or night." laser designator's ability to
track targets was similarly
limited.\a Only less accurate
unguided munitions could be
employed in adverse weather
using radar.
Lockheed "During the first night, 30 On the first night, 21 of the 37
F-117s struck 37 high-value targets to which F-117s were
targets, inflicting damage tasked were reported hit; of
that collapsed Saddam these, the F-117s missed
Hussein's air defense system 40 percent of their air defense
and all but eliminated targets. BDA on 11 of the F-117
Iraq's ability to wage strategic air defense targets
coordinated war." confirmed only 2 complete kills.
Numerous aircraft, other than
the F-117, were involved in
suppressing the Iraqi IADS,
which did not show a marked
falloff in aircraft kills until
day five.
Martin Marietta Aircraft with LANTIRN\ can The LANTIRN can be employed
"locate and attack targets below clouds and weather;
at night and under other however, its ability to find and
conditions of poor designate targets through
visibility using low-level, clouds, haze, smoke, dust, and
high speed tactics."\b humidity ranged from limited to
no capability at all.
McDonnell TLAMs "can be launched . . . The TLAM's weather limitation
Douglas in any weather." occurs not so much at the launch
point but in the target area
where the optical [DELETED].
Northrop The ALQ-135 "proved itself [DELETED]
by jamming enemy threat
radars"; and was able "to
function in virtually any
hostile environment."
Texas "TI Paveway III: one target, Of a selected sample of 20
Instruments one bomb." targets attacked by F-117s and
F-111Fs with GBU-24s and GBU-
27s, no single aimpoint was
struck by only 1 LGB--the
average was 4, the maximum 10.
