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Expect a US-Iran showdown in 2012
7 January 2012
jonathan eyal
The new year could not have started on a more ominous note in West Asia. Iran concluded its naval war games in the Gulf on last week with blood-curdling threats against its foes. Meanwhile, Western nations led by the United States are planning to apply even tougher oil and financial sanctions against Teheran.
Whats most worrying is that this latest test of wills is no longer just about Irans suspected nuclear weapons programme, but about who will be the predominant regional power. And it is a confrontation which could easily translate into blows.
Irans military leaders are clearly in a cocky mood. Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, the commander of the Iranian navy, has spent the week boasting about his countrys prowess, claiming that soon his ships will be trawling the Atlantic Ocean, right under the nose of the US. We are determined to make our presence felt internationally, he vowed.
In practice, much of this is just noise.
The Qader missile which the Iranian navy test-fired last week is neither new, nor long-range as Teheran claims; it first appeared two years ago, and has a range of only 200km. Many of the ships paraded by Iran were also old. The Jamaran warship which recently went through the Suez Canal is little more than a floating tin can, incorporating 1970s technology. Sending it to the bottom of the sea will be an act of kindness, joked one US military planner.
Nor should one take too seriously Irans threats to close the Hormuz Strait. As most military experts know, sealing the waterway through which up to a third of the worlds oil passes is easier said than done.
Irans shore-based missile and artillery batteries can be used for this purpose, but they are likely to be taken out by the US air force within minutes. Any Iranian vessel which tries to interdict shipping in the strait is unlikely to survive for long either. And placing mines in the strait, a deep stretch of water with strong currents, is tricky.
Furthermore, even if Iran succeeds in blocking the Hormuz passage, the main victim would not be the US but China, which buys the bulk of Irans oil exports, and on whom Teheran relies for diplomatic protection. So, although Irans General Hossein Salami claims that closing the strait would be as simple as drinking a glass of water, the real analogy is more with a glass of poison: The act will harm Iran itself.
Still, developments over the past week have set off alarm bells in Washington. For the first time, Iran has indicated that it would seek to block not only the Gulf waters, but also the Sea of Oman, facing the Indian Ocean, which is the only other sea-based route for Saudi Arabias oil exports.
To make matters worse, Iran is also planning to pass a law declaring the Strait of Hormuz part of its territorial waters, in violation of international law. Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi has also just announced plans to expand the countrys oil drilling deep into the Gulf, raising the prospect of new territorial disputes with neighbouring Arab states.
The US simply cannot ignore these challenges. Nor can it ignore the broader battle for influence in West Asia, which is currently evenly poised. On the one hand, the possible overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is facing a growing popular revolt, could be a major blow to Iran; the two countries are close allies.
Yet at the same time, the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq offers Iran an opportunity to expand its influence. If the Iranians manage to prop up the current Syrian government, they may still be able to create an arc of Shiite-dominated regimes which extends from the Gulf and right up to Lebanon. The strategic stakes have never been higher, for both the West and Iran.
The same high-stakes considerations apply to Irans quest to become a nuclear power. Until recently, US intelligence agencies believed that its strategy was to acquire all the know-how but not actually deploy nuclear weapons until Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, its spiritual leader, decides that the time is right. This so-called breakout scenario allowed the USA to argue that there was no urgent need to contemplate military strikes against Irans nuclear installations, since diplomatic pressure may slow and even reverse the process.
Now, however, US spooks are beginning to contemplate a different outcome, a sneak-out scenario in which Iran produces both the nuclear charges and their delivery systems surreptitiously, precisely what Israeli analysts have argued all along. Unsurprisingly, US and Israeli strategists are beginning to converge in their assessments, a fact underlined by General Benny Gantz, the Israeli armys chief of staff, who claimed last week with satisfaction that international preparations for dealing with Iran are proper.
With elections looming later this year, US President Barack Obama is anxious to avoid a showdown with Iran. But he may not be able to. For one thing, the new sanctions which Mr Obama approved last Saturday will hit Irans central bank, the core of the countrys financial structure.
Although Irans oil exports, worth around US$70 billion a year, are not directly endangered, Teheran will find it increasingly difficult to collect its revenues; thats why the rial, the countrys currency, has plunged to as low as 16,800 to the dollar, down from 10,500 just a year ago. The Iranians will continue to claim that they are unaffected by the sanctions. But, with Irans parliamentary elections due in March, its rapidly deteriorating financial position will be difficult to ignore.
Either way, it is clear that both the US and Iran are now entrenched in positions which preclude compromises. The Iranians believe that they are presented with a unique strategic opportunity to become the predominant power in the Middle East. And the US is now convinced that the Iranian regime would be persuaded to give up its nuclear dreams only if its very survival is threatened.
The danger is no longer one of a catastrophic miscalculation by either side but of a full and premeditated military showdown. And it is almost certain to come before the end of this year.
http://www.thestatesman.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=396106&catid=39
7 January 2012
jonathan eyal
The new year could not have started on a more ominous note in West Asia. Iran concluded its naval war games in the Gulf on last week with blood-curdling threats against its foes. Meanwhile, Western nations led by the United States are planning to apply even tougher oil and financial sanctions against Teheran.
Whats most worrying is that this latest test of wills is no longer just about Irans suspected nuclear weapons programme, but about who will be the predominant regional power. And it is a confrontation which could easily translate into blows.
Irans military leaders are clearly in a cocky mood. Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, the commander of the Iranian navy, has spent the week boasting about his countrys prowess, claiming that soon his ships will be trawling the Atlantic Ocean, right under the nose of the US. We are determined to make our presence felt internationally, he vowed.
In practice, much of this is just noise.
The Qader missile which the Iranian navy test-fired last week is neither new, nor long-range as Teheran claims; it first appeared two years ago, and has a range of only 200km. Many of the ships paraded by Iran were also old. The Jamaran warship which recently went through the Suez Canal is little more than a floating tin can, incorporating 1970s technology. Sending it to the bottom of the sea will be an act of kindness, joked one US military planner.
Nor should one take too seriously Irans threats to close the Hormuz Strait. As most military experts know, sealing the waterway through which up to a third of the worlds oil passes is easier said than done.
Irans shore-based missile and artillery batteries can be used for this purpose, but they are likely to be taken out by the US air force within minutes. Any Iranian vessel which tries to interdict shipping in the strait is unlikely to survive for long either. And placing mines in the strait, a deep stretch of water with strong currents, is tricky.
Furthermore, even if Iran succeeds in blocking the Hormuz passage, the main victim would not be the US but China, which buys the bulk of Irans oil exports, and on whom Teheran relies for diplomatic protection. So, although Irans General Hossein Salami claims that closing the strait would be as simple as drinking a glass of water, the real analogy is more with a glass of poison: The act will harm Iran itself.
Still, developments over the past week have set off alarm bells in Washington. For the first time, Iran has indicated that it would seek to block not only the Gulf waters, but also the Sea of Oman, facing the Indian Ocean, which is the only other sea-based route for Saudi Arabias oil exports.
To make matters worse, Iran is also planning to pass a law declaring the Strait of Hormuz part of its territorial waters, in violation of international law. Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi has also just announced plans to expand the countrys oil drilling deep into the Gulf, raising the prospect of new territorial disputes with neighbouring Arab states.
The US simply cannot ignore these challenges. Nor can it ignore the broader battle for influence in West Asia, which is currently evenly poised. On the one hand, the possible overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is facing a growing popular revolt, could be a major blow to Iran; the two countries are close allies.
Yet at the same time, the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq offers Iran an opportunity to expand its influence. If the Iranians manage to prop up the current Syrian government, they may still be able to create an arc of Shiite-dominated regimes which extends from the Gulf and right up to Lebanon. The strategic stakes have never been higher, for both the West and Iran.
The same high-stakes considerations apply to Irans quest to become a nuclear power. Until recently, US intelligence agencies believed that its strategy was to acquire all the know-how but not actually deploy nuclear weapons until Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, its spiritual leader, decides that the time is right. This so-called breakout scenario allowed the USA to argue that there was no urgent need to contemplate military strikes against Irans nuclear installations, since diplomatic pressure may slow and even reverse the process.
Now, however, US spooks are beginning to contemplate a different outcome, a sneak-out scenario in which Iran produces both the nuclear charges and their delivery systems surreptitiously, precisely what Israeli analysts have argued all along. Unsurprisingly, US and Israeli strategists are beginning to converge in their assessments, a fact underlined by General Benny Gantz, the Israeli armys chief of staff, who claimed last week with satisfaction that international preparations for dealing with Iran are proper.
With elections looming later this year, US President Barack Obama is anxious to avoid a showdown with Iran. But he may not be able to. For one thing, the new sanctions which Mr Obama approved last Saturday will hit Irans central bank, the core of the countrys financial structure.
Although Irans oil exports, worth around US$70 billion a year, are not directly endangered, Teheran will find it increasingly difficult to collect its revenues; thats why the rial, the countrys currency, has plunged to as low as 16,800 to the dollar, down from 10,500 just a year ago. The Iranians will continue to claim that they are unaffected by the sanctions. But, with Irans parliamentary elections due in March, its rapidly deteriorating financial position will be difficult to ignore.
Either way, it is clear that both the US and Iran are now entrenched in positions which preclude compromises. The Iranians believe that they are presented with a unique strategic opportunity to become the predominant power in the Middle East. And the US is now convinced that the Iranian regime would be persuaded to give up its nuclear dreams only if its very survival is threatened.
The danger is no longer one of a catastrophic miscalculation by either side but of a full and premeditated military showdown. And it is almost certain to come before the end of this year.
http://www.thestatesman.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=396106&catid=39
