Evolution of Threat , and Taking Action PAF

[ziaulislam]

Well this question is not for sake of current events but it is rather to question

1- We had funds for F16 C/D 12-18 planes
2- We opted out
3- Funds should still exist for alternative Purchase

sir govt is facing a current account financial crisis due to poor export polices(defending rupee unjustly, lack of refunds to exporters, high export taxation, ease of doing business and high co operate taxation)
simply it doesnt has fiscal space for any big ticket acquisition currently, especially since it wants to avoid IMF

this and fact that pakistan is also not going to get 3-4 billion dollars US owes to us too

so current account crisis is real, so no big ticket deals

typhoon 40 aircraft will cost 10 billion dollars, anything else will certainly cost above 5 billion dollars, simply put the best bet is used f-16s (new available, used not available) and thunders

solution is that PML N should have done what it did in last 4 months 4 years ago
for the first time i have seen so e small reforms..otherwise it was 4 years of disaster

---
so whats realistic?
we all know PML N is goign to win 2018 elections, once that happens the first things its going to do is continue to spending spree, so expect IMF approach

now two things might happen, first IMF is much stricter and forces PMLN for reforms or under USA pressure IMF is much loser like it was before and no reforms happen

in either case maximum foreign flow and current accoutn deficit means that Pakistan will not go for any major big ticket deal..

so we will only see thunders
now J-10 is not an option as fifth gen is just on horizon and thunders in coperate alot of chinese weapon and tech

f-16 is not option as new f-16 is too expensive for the cost(why not add thudners) while used f16s will not be availble unless we have better and stronger relation ship with USA

so by 2025 i dont expect any new plateform ..

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

I would have imagined we had a backup plan for the F16 C/D funds for 18 planes which we were planning to buy cash purchase , we could have just bought 10-20 alternative planes wih Aim to Assemble a squadron

Alot of countries add 10-12 planes here and there over years depending on their budget

Obviously we are not UAE or Saudi Arabia

Even Egypt is buying alternative platforms

5th Generation on Horizon means , development/construction ~ 8-10 years and then induction in Airforce a good 3-5 Year cycle


Also having an alternative Tech in Airforce gives you exposure to some new ideas

 

[Falcon26]

sir govt is facing a current account financial crisis due to poor export polices(defending rupee unjustly, lack of refunds to exporters, high export taxation, ease of doing business and high co operate taxation)
simply it doesnt has fiscal space for any big ticket acquisition currently, especially since it wants to avoid IMF

this and fact that pakistan is also not going to get 3-4 billion dollars US owes to us too

so current account crisis is real, so no big ticket deals

typhoon 40 aircraft will cost 10 billion dollars, anything else will certainly cost above 5 billion dollars, simply put the best bet is used f-16s (new available, used not available) and thunders

solution is that PML N should have done what it did in last 4 months 4 years ago
for the first time i have seen so e small reforms..otherwise it was 4 years of disaster

---
so whats realistic?
we all know PML N is goign to win 2018 elections, once that happens the first things its going to do is continue to spending spree, so expect IMF approach

now two things might happen, first IMF is much stricter and forces PMLN for reforms or under USA pressure IMF is much loser like it was before and no reforms happen

in either case maximum foreign flow and current accoutn deficit means that Pakistan will not go for any major big ticket deal..

so we will only see thunders
now J-10 is not an option as fifth gen is just on horizon and thunders in coperate alot of chinese weapon and tech

f-16 is not option as new f-16 is too expensive for the cost(why not add thudners) while used f16s will not be availble unless we have better and stronger relation ship with USA

so by 2025 i dont expect any new plateform ..

It was today announced that your army is deploying additional troops in Saudi Arabia. If Pakistan is taking Saudi security this serious, why can’t the Saudis take the Pakistanis on a spending spree like they have done for Egypt? What does Pakistan get out of this partnership? @Quwa

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

They give us bag full of dates
Lot of fibre

Plus nice refreshing bottle
Not sure why there is image of Glashier on the bottle we all know
there are no Glashiers in Saudi Arabia

 

[ziaulislam]

It was today announced that your army is deploying additional troops in Saudi Arabia. If Pakistan is taking Saudi security this serious, why can’t the Saudis take the Pakistanis on a spending spree like they have done for Egypt? What does Pakistan get out of this partnership? @Quwa

because pakistan doesnt support the legitimate Yemeni govt or has dubious position

Pakistan should support the right side which is also based upon principal (this time), that is democratic forces in syria and yemen, instead we are supporting minority and extremist houthis and alwites that are forcing them selves on the majority

no body is asking Pakistan to send troops(Egypt didnt), but are expecting more clear diplomatic support

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

In all honesty I am not sure why Houthis were being bombed or killed if they are living in their own country in frist place - in all fairness

From Wikipedia
Zaydis make up about 25 percent of the population, Sunnis make up 75 percent, and there are also tiny minorities of Muslims who are members of other Shia . Al-Houthi Zaydis are estimated to make up about 30 percent of the Shiite population, according to Hassan Zaid, secretary-general of the al-Haq opposition party. The Zaydis ruled Yemen for 1,000 years up until 1962. During this time they ferociously defended their independence and fought off foreign powers who controlled lower Yemen and tried to extend their rule to the north

The wars in Yamen / Syria were both "Un Necessary"

 

[Falcon26]

because pakistan doesnt support the legitimate Yemeni govt or has dubious position

Pakistan should support the right side which is also based upon principal (this time), that is democratic forces in syria and yemen, instead we are supporting minority and extremist houthis and alwites that are forcing them selves on the majority

no body is asking Pakistan to send troops(Egypt didnt), but are expecting more clear diplomatic support

But Pakistan is sending troops now, in whatever guise.

 

[ziaulislam]

But Pakistan is sending troops now, in whatever guise.

nope, sending in troops to saudi is just a routine thing..

for saudis its backup plan if things escalate
for pakistan its a few cheap dollars and co operation
but nothing really at the level of what Egypt got

In all honesty I am not sure why Houthis were being bombed or killed if they are living in their own country in frist place - in all fairness

From Wikipedia
Zaydis make up about 25 percent of the population, Sunnis make up 75 percent, and there are also tiny minorities of Muslims who are members of other Shia . Al-Houthi Zaydis are estimated to make up about 30 percent of the Shiite population, according to Hassan Zaid, secretary-general of the al-Haq opposition party. The Zaydis ruled Yemen for 1,000 years up until 1962. During this time they ferociously defended their independence and fought off foreign powers who controlled lower Yemen and tried to extend their rule to the north

The wars in Yamen / Syria were both "Un Necessary"

you are very naive, we night not think of it but sunnis and shias consider each other infidals and ready to kill and do genocide...
especially if its iran and saudi arabia, if it upto iran they would have conquered Pakistan (go up and read there statements when zia was in power in 1980s) there was a time in 1980s when war was imminent b/w pakistan and iran

its power struggle and chess game between iran and saudis

it got worse because the common enemy saddam went away and huge areas were up for grab after break up of iraq and local uprising in syria

1. it started with Bahrain, basically a backyard saudis state with strong relation and inter marriages between the two families, shia form about 60% and did an iran supported uprising which was crushed by local police(a.k.a pakistan) and Saudis military, this was iran first move, a scarifical pawn to test saudis,
2. second play was played by saudis supporting the uprising in close alley of Iran and only other state with shia govt, saudis were sucessfull till of course Daesh and kurds and russia made a mess of it plus the indecisiveness of saudi airforce
3. third play was by iran in iraq, decimating the political power and freedom of all sunni iraqi tribes(and hence creating Daesh out of sunni population),
4. as Iran extremist came into power in latest election, Iran played the most deadly move ever, a bold move too, that took the proxy war to whole new level, this was yemen, basically(a 20 years dictator) president had just step down for elections on local people pressure, a sunni govt( a multitude of tribes,neutral to pro saudi) that was there for many years, was overrun by well armed houthis, a minority tribe that holds a semi autonomous region in yemen, instead of just ruling their own area the captured whole yemen, this led to all out of war between legitimate govt, outpost president, daesh and houthis supported with militia from iran and pakistan(paid generously),
5. the latest situation became worse when extremist govt came into saudis too, in form of king salman, he tried to up the game and did tried to incite protest right into iran, iran obviously responded by arming houthis with blastic missle to hit jeddah
6. than there is lebanon where there is struggle b/w shia, christians and sunnis, previously it was dictated by syria and israel but with fall of syria things have become complicated
7. Pakistanis blame saudis here more but as neutral observer, i have seen iran playing more extreme moves..just because there was uprising in syria (that happened before as well and led to 70,000 death in assad father era) doesnt mean iran should set up whole middle east on fire
8. ultimate goal of iran is to form a shia govt and outset sunni arab govt, that is what every religious extremist govt wants..

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

....Lets see what happens next

Zia said lot of things ~ including he was going to get us 200 F16

Personally I don't see why Syria was disturbed
similarly don't see reason for war in Yamen seemed like a very stable country

And I personally don't care who marries who in Bahrain

If you believe in 1 God and Prophet , it is enough for me to consider you Muslim and naturally I love Ali's family and Prophet's daughter and their family, even as a Sunni my views do sympathize with Shia views I get their view point

I don't have 1% doubt in my mind.

So I frankly don't understand the land grab or , power change attempts in Syria or Yamen
Sorry I just can't relate to it . It is a 100% Saudi-Iran thing

I am personally more attracted to Turkish / Iranian cultures due to a clear and strong leadership , Saudi culture is a bit alien to me

 

[Readerdefence]

Well this question is not for sake of current events but it is rather to question

1- We had funds for F16 C/D 12-18 planes
2- We opted out
3- Funds should still exist for alternative Purchase

Hi as per your point 1 how much we have & how many and which plane we can buy
Any information will be appreciated
Thank you

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Going back to the actual topic having strategy to induct even 6-12 planes per year from Foreign source would not be a bad idea considering the F16 Avenue is closed or delay prone

If we go by that path in 3-5 years we will have 1-2 Squadrons which can actually be used as a real Agressor in training as well. (Mig/Sukhoi mixed squadrons)

The price of F16 was mentioned around 1 Billion mark or 900 Million range

 

[IceCold]

We are hedging our bets on JF-17 and some odd F-16s compared to IAF who is hedging its bets on SU-30MKI, Rafales, Mirages 2000. One can see who the odds favour specially when we consider the numbers as well.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

US Unit cost $22 million (MiG-29S, 2013)
US Unit cost $40-$55 Milion (Su-35S)
Euro Fighter might not have the numerical benefit due to high cost the delivery of Euro Fighter was quite smooth for Saudi Arabia

• With Budget of 1 Billion ~ 45 Migs
  
• With budget of 1 Billion ~ 25 Su-35

Of course the weapons package can be purchased seperately

Going with this approach should lower our dependency on F16 overtime make it easier to adjust the fleet in future, may be more fly time done by Thunder

While F16 fleet would stay a bit more fresher , with reduced workload

 

[ziaulislam]

....Lets see what happens next

Zia said lot of things ~ including he was going to get us 200 F16

Personally I don't see why Syria was disturbed
similarly don't see reason for war in Yamen seemed like a very stable country

And I personally don't care who marries who in Bahrain

If you believe in 1 God and Prophet , it is enough for me to consider you Muslim and naturally I love Ali's family and Prophet's daughter and their family, even as a Sunni my views do sympathize with Shia views I get their view point

I don't have 1% doubt in my mind.

So I frankly don't understand the land grab or , power change attempts in Syria or Yamen
Sorry I just can't relate to it . It is a 100% Saudi-Iran thing

I am personally more attracted to Turkish / Iranian cultures due to a clear and strong leadership , Saudi culture is a bit alien to me

Problem is that arabs hate turkish people and revolted against them for generation during Ottoman empire

Iran hates all sunnis and is involved in cruel power game while arab monrachs only care about their own kingdoms

Pakistani are ignorant about how the Muslim world works

Iran has sent 1000s of Pakistani shia to fight in yemen and syria per our govt sources. Just google it

Turkey is rising power but it still has ways to mend its relationship with arabs

Than their is huge kurd minority in 3 different countries eager to chalk out its own(They missed their chance during thw Ottoman empire disintegration)

Forget about shia sunni Muslim unity we have problems that will lead war in sunni world

I havent even touched the complexity of african countries

 

[ziaulislam]

US Unit cost $22 million (MiG-29S, 2013)
US Unit cost $40-$55 Milion (Su-35S)
Euro Fighter might not have the numerical benefit due to high cost the delivery of Euro Fighter was quite smooth for Saudi Arabia

• With Budget of 1 Billion ~ 45 Migs
  
• With budget of 1 Billion ~ 25 Su-35

Of course the weapons package can be purchased seperately

Going with this approach should lower our dependency on F16 overtime make it easier to adjust the fleet in future, may be more fly time done by Thunder

While F16 fleet would stay a bit more fresher , with reduced workload

This is absolutely wrong
A new fighter with training and spares setup will cost 150 million /plan for western aircraft and 100m/ plane for russain

I assume u dont want a radar less waterdown mig