Energy crisis in Pakistan might end soon, says Wall Street Journal

[TechMan]

Technically they are adding more than 10,000mw by December 2018 as promised... I was checking the progress of existing projects under CPEC for example... and the early harvest projects will add 10,400mw... except 1 hydro power project which is scheduled to be completed by 2022... all other projects are likely to be completed by December 2018

But when you see the long term projects from 2014-2030 framework most of them are already under construction and have been pushed for early completion from 2020-22 to 2018-19.. some of them also in 2017. Port Qasim and Sahiwal power plants are getting operational one of the two plants each in 2017, almost completed already in record time. Couple of wind and solar powered projects are already operational

That is on top of Non CPEC projects such as Neelum Jhelum Hydro power project adding 969mw in few months, extension of Tarbela IV is also pushed for early completion in 2017 adding 1400mw and various other smaller hydro power projects adding few hundred MW of electricity

I was checking Pakistan's installed capacity of about 23,000mw is already around 27,000mw after completion of various projects in past 3 years. That is why an average load shedding has already dropped from 12-16 hours to just few hours a day... no more protests and cheap publicity by the media. I foresee installed capacity reaching over 40,000mw by December 2018

I don't challenge the figures quoted by you but I think this loadshedding is not going anywhere in fact it will increase because no body is focusing on core problem which is circular debt that keeps on rising as many people doesn't pay bills and resort to kunda system. And government is not doing anything in this regard because they will lose political support.

 

[Hyde]

That only means that the reasons for piling up circular debt are still there, and nobody is paying it the attention it deserves. More power generation is great, but it may not solve the problems.

If there was no attention being paid and the circular debt was still standing at 4% of gdp in 2016,

We would have had circular debt of $15.6 billion dollars by 2016. If the figure is not true, it means some progress has been made in the right direction. Not to forget Pakistan is getting electricity of 20-24 hours a day in major cities compared to 8-12 hours in 2013... As the money being subsidised is just a fraction of what it was in 2013, if similar electricity was supplied in 2013, our circular debt would have been 200% higher

Cheers

I don't challenge the figures quoted by you but I think this loadshedding is not going anywhere in fact it will increase because no body is focusing on core problem which is circular debt that keeps on rising as many people doesn't pay bills and resort to kunda system. And government is not doing anything in this regard because they will lose political support.

Sir you do not live in Pakistan, please ask somebody about electricity situation in Pakistan if you live around Lahore, Islamabad, Karachi or any major city. Even in my city which is 17-18th largest in Pakistan have load shedding of just 2-6 hours a day compared to 12-16 hours a day in 2013 but when it comes to circular debt its no longer piling up to 200-300 billion rupees per year. Forget what the journalists says, read the government statistics and neutral sources from USAid and IMF as they have done in-depth work about energy sector of Pakistan

 

[VCheng]

is an achievement that we are heading in right direction, hopefully by 2020 this problem will be resolved (optimistically)

Yes, we have already agreed that there is progress in the right direction, no doubt. I can accept you hoping optimistically that the problem will be solved by 2020, while holding on to my pragmatic position based on hard facts.

 

[Hyde]

People interested in a serious discussion on this topic should pay attention to the following report, and the excerpt below:


https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/ASIA_150521_Pakistan's Interminable Energy Crisis rpt_0629.pdf
[/USER]

I have read 40-50 pages on this report and there is no doubt it does contain very useful information in it. But I have to say its pretty much outdated as its written based on facts that were true in 2013 and 2014. We also need to remember that the co-authors like Musaddik Malik and Nargis Sethi had served under the tenure of PPP and despite the fact Musadik has played active role in the present government as well, his responsibility has been changed altogether.

The report is written from the era when Pakistan and IMF were debating whether Pakistan's GDP growth rate is 2.8% or 3.2% and whether its 3.4% or 4.3%... and as mentioned earlier the circular debt was eating 200-300 billion rupees per year at that time. It does contain useful information about past projects and the capacity of Pakistan's electricity and gas sector but it does not contain any information from the past 2 years (besides the name of CPEC and brief intro about it).

I would like you to please research once again and compare the circular debt of Pakistan between fiscal year

2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15

and then compare it with 2014-15 and 2016. You will come to know astounding fact that Pakistan's circular debt in middle of 2015 (probably May-June 2015) stood at 330 billion rupees and only 8-10 billion have been added since last 1 year. Thats peanut compared to 335 billion rupees in 2011-12.. that's the achievement I am trying to highlight. Please do read this news as it talks about similar observation and is up to date

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1262369/pakistans-power-sector-going-nowhere/

Do not fall for journalists, read the statistics mentioned by neutral bodies like IMF and World Bank. The figures published by the Government of Pakistan can also be trusted as they are published in collaboration with neutral bodies and IPPs

Thank you and have a good day

For easier understanding you can read circular debt of 0 rupees + 340 billion rupees transferred to PHCL liabilities in 2013 and whatever amount in 2016 + 340 billion rupees transferred to PHCL in 2013 which is near to 340 billion rupees by end of 2016 and 330 billion rupees in 2015 (almost 18 months ago)[/user]

 

[VCheng]

For easier understanding you can read circular debt of 0 rupees + 340 billion rupees transferred to PHCL liabilities in 2013 and whatever amount in 2016 + 340 billion rupees transferred to PHCL in 2013 which is near to 340 billion rupees by end of 2016 and 330 billion rupees in 2015 (almost 18 months ago)[/user]

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1227129/circular-debt-power-sector-govt-not-repay-bank-loans-rs136-5b/

The circular debt was recorded at Rs321 billion at the end of June 2016 in addition to the Rs335 billion parked in the holding company, according to the IMF report. It means the total outstanding circular debt of the power sector is Rs656 billion.

 

[Hyde]

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1227129/circular-debt-power-sector-govt-not-repay-bank-loans-rs136-5b/

The circular debt was recorded at Rs321 billion at the end of June 2016 in addition to the Rs335 billion parked in the holding company, according to the IMF report. It means the total outstanding circular debt of the power sector is Rs656 billion.

yes and this is exactly I am saying too...

Out of 800+ billion rupees of circular debt in 2013

335~ billion rupees were transferred to Holding Company (PHCL)

Remaining 480 billion rupees were paid off by the government in 2013

Between May 2013 to May 2015, we had accumulated another 300 billion rupees in circular debt out of which about 190 billion rupees were accumulated between May 2013 to May 2014. Since May 2015 to December 2016, the debt stands at 340 billion rupees.

Add 335 billion of PHCL if you want to but that is not counted as circular debt by IMF and The government of Pakistan, it's a 1-time liability of the federal government and treated differently

I hope it makes sense

My last post I guess

 

[TechMan]

If there was no attention being paid and the circular debt was still standing at 4% of gdp in 2016,

We would have had circular debt of $15.6 billion dollars by 2016. If the figure is not true, it means some progress has been made in the right direction. Not to forget Pakistan is getting electricity of 20-24 hours a day in major cities compared to 8-12 hours in 2013... As the money being subsidised is just a fraction of what it was in 2013, if similar electricity was supplied in 2013, our circular debt would have been 200% higher

Cheers


Sir you do not live in Pakistan, please ask somebody about electricity situation in Pakistan if you live around Lahore, Islamabad, Karachi or any major city. Even in my city which is 17-18th largest in Pakistan have load shedding of just 2-6 hours a day compared to 12-16 hours a day in 2013 but when it comes to circular debt its no longer piling up to 200-300 billion rupees per year. Forget what the journalists says, read the government statistics and neutral sources from USAid and IMF as they have done in-depth work about energy sector of Pakistan

I visit Pakistan every 3 months. I know situation is good these days and it will become even better when the elections are near and that will be not due to good governance but because they will artificially control circular debt so as not to upset masses and then let new government handle it.

 

[Hyde]

I visit Pakistan every 3 months. I know situation is good these days and it will become even better when the elections are near and that will be not due to good governance but because they will artificially control circular debt so as not to upset masses and then let new government handle it.

Im another words you cannot imagine the Government can ever resolve the energy crisis

 

[SBD-3]

TBH I don't believe that even with current supply the country will have any surplus. Its not just that you add the power and the loadshedding disappears, the increasing growth will crate more demand, which is latent at current due to unavailability of sufficient energy. However, we need to have a lot being continously added to the system. For sustaining a 7% growth, Pakistan would need to add 15-20% generation capacity every year. That's how things work.

 

[A.M.]

Need further stability for the next 2 - 3 years to see these projects through. Good work so far.

 

[TheDarkKnight]

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif Zindabad.
What a great leader of the Islamic Republic he has turned out to be.

On the other hand, Pakistan's meglomaniac tyrants such as Muhammad Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-Haq and Pervez Musharraf could not each increase the electricity generation in the country by only 10 Gigawatts each despite the three dollarised American Poodles ruled the country for nearly thirty years. Three decades they wasted and ruined the nation.

Haven't done much research, but this is what I can remember about these tyrants:

Ayub Khan: Mangla dam and Tarbela dam were built, canal system was upgraded and made the largest in the world ( I think it still is the largest)

Zia ul haq: Completed Pak's nuclear program, defeated soviets and gave our nation your great leader Quiad-e-Azam Sani and the Asian Nelson Mandela: Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif

Pervez Musharraf: Will skip this as it may start an offtopic discussion ...

Regards

 

[VCheng]

Im another words you cannot imagine the Government can ever resolve the energy crisis

An enduring solution is impossible for the foreseeable future, given the actual facts.

 

[Hyde]

An enduring solution is impossible for the foreseeable future, given the actual facts.

Of course if IMF, World Bank and USAid are saying that Pakistan's power sector is recovering and the menace of circular debt will be over based on current decline of circular debt since past 18 months, for you may be the report of unprofessional PPP bueraucrate (now in Noon) musadik malik is more credible who gave his assumption based on facts in 2013

Trying to sleep so bye for now

 

[VCheng]

Of course if IMF, World Bank and USAid are saying that Pakistan's power sector is recovering and the menace of circular debt will be over based on current decline of circular debt since past 18 months, for you may be the report of unprofessional PPP bueraucrate (now in Noon) musadik malik is more credible who gave his assumption based on facts in 2013

I was reading the IMF report today where they predicted the decline in circular debt will come to 1% of GDP by 2018 so for me it is already an achievement from 4% of gdp in 2013 to 2% of gdp.

Will share that report later (but unfortunately you will not read again as you probably ignored most of my links I shared earlier)

Bye for now

I agree with you that the power sector is recovering, and I have read the information you have posted, none of which can negate the facts that circular debt keeps on increasing (no matter what shell companies are used), and the rate of increase in the power demand makes an enduring solution unlikely, no matter how one spins the numbers.

Loadshedding is here to stay in Pakistan, that is the sad reality. It may wax and wane seasonally, but it will not be rid of as easily as is being claimed.

I think I will bow out of this thread now.

 

[Cyberian]

Haven't done much research, but this is what I can remember about these tyrants:

Ayub Khan: Mangla dam and Tarbela dam were built, canal system was upgraded and made the largest in the world ( I think it still is the largest)

Zia ul haq: Completed Pak's nuclear program, defeated soviets and gave our nation your great leader Quiad-e-Azam Sani and the Asian Nelson Mandela: Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif

Pervez Musharraf: Will skip this as it may start an offtopic discussion ...

Regards

What, are you stupid or something? Read my signature. Their biggest achievements are listed there.

Tyrant Ayub khan lost Shaksgam Valley and East Pakistan. Tyrant Zia-ul-Haq lost Siachin Glacier. Tyrant Pervez Musharraf nearly destroyed whole of Pakistan. And, you're comparing this to building dams and building nuclear plants?.

At least use couple of brain cells in future before replying to me.