Energy crisis in Pakistan might end soon, says Wall Street Journal

[Hassan Guy]

Will we use nuclear energy too?

 

[HttpError]

Just remember the PPP's term and remember this moto "Never Again", PPP is like a curse to Pakistan.

 

[VCheng]

Technically they are adding more than 10,000mw by December 2018 as promised... I was checking the progress of existing projects under CPEC for example... and the early harvest projects will add 10,400mw... except 1 hydro power project which is scheduled to be completed by 2022... all other projects are likely to be completed by December 2018

But when you see the long term projects from 2014-2030 framework most of them are already under construction and have been pushed for early completion from 2020-22 to 2018-19.. some of them also in 2017. Port Qasim and Sahiwal power plants are getting operational one of the two plants each in 2017, almost completed already in record time. Couple of wind and solar powered projects are already operational

That is on top of Non CPEC projects such as Neelum Jhelum Hydro power project adding 969mw in few months, extension of Tarbela IV is also pushed for early completion in 2017 adding 1400mw and various other smaller hydro power projects adding few hundred MW of electricity

I was checking Pakistan's installed capacity of about 23,000mw is already around 27,000mw after completion of various projects in past 3 years. That is why an average load shedding has already dropped from 12-16 hours to just few hours a day... no more protests and cheap publicity by the media. I foresee installed capacity reaching over 40,000mw by December 2018

What the WSJ story really says is that while the GoP has announced great plans, they face huge obstacles to becoming reality. Besides, the problem is not on the installed capacity side. Has the circular debt problem been solved on a durable basis? Nope.

 

[Hyde]

What the WSJ story really says is that while the GoP has announced great plans, they face huge obstacles to becoming reality. Besides, the problem is not on the installed capacity side. Has the circular debt problem been solved on a durable basis? Nope.

Partially yes...

The overall loss in subsidies have been reduced by over 50%. You can credit lower oil prices partially for that

But there is also some work done in assistance of USAid and several domestic projects for greater efficiency for loss of energy in transmission lines and smart metering.

More than 5 billion dollars are being spent on transmission lines alone a part from energy projects so you can imagine the scale of ongoing work right now

 

[VCheng]

Partially yes...

The overall loss in subsidies have been reduced by over 50%. You can credit lower oil prices partially for that

But there is also some work done in assistance of USAid and several domestic projects for greater efficiency for loss of energy in transmission lines and smart metering.

More than 5 billion dollars are being spent on transmission lines alone a part from energy projects so you can imagine the scale of ongoing work right now

All those measures are good, but the circular debt keeps piling up:

http://www.dawn.com/news/1246976

The real issues remain, and Pakistan will not be rid of loadshedding for the foreseeable future.

 

[Hyde]

All those measures are good, but the circular debt keeps piling up:

http://www.dawn.com/news/1246976

The real issues remain, and Pakistan will not be rid of loadshedding for the foreseeable future.

I know,

The point I am trying to make it, we are apparently on the right track. The problem will not be resolved overnight. We used to give subsidy of over 200 billion rupees few years ago, I remember around 225 billion rupees in 2011 or 2012... and that is on top of creating artificial loadshedding for 12-16 hours a day.

Now half amount is being subsidized after loadshedding of only 4-6 hours a day. It will hopefully be resolved by 2020 after Matiari to Lahore and Faisalabad transmission lines and Neelum jhelum to Gujranwala transmission and smart metering have been introduced to several cities by then...

The point is, we are no longer generating elecricity for 18-24 rupees and selling for 8-12 rupees per unit... the average cost is dropped to 12 rupees per unit including line losses and electricity theft

Its likely to come under 9 rupees per unit by 2020

 

[VCheng]

I know,

The point I am trying to make it, we are apparently on the right track. The problem will not be resolved overnight. We used to provide subsidy of over 200 billion rupees few years ago, I remember around 225 billion rupees in 2011 or 2012... and that is on top of creating artificial loadshedding for 12-16 hours a day.

Now half amount is being subsidized after loadsheddint of only 4-6 hours a day. It will hopefully be resolved by 2020 after Matiari to Lahore and Faisalabad transmission lines and Neelum jhelum to Gujranawala transmission and smart metering have been introduced to several cities by then...

The point is, we are not longer generating elecricity for 18-24 rupees per unit and selling for 8-12 rupees per unit... the average cost is dropped to 12 rupees per unit including line losses and electricity theft

Its likely to come under 9 rupees per unit by 2020

Yes, Pakistan's power sector is on the right track, as you point out, but please note that it is chasing a moving target of increasing demand. Progress along this right track is still slower than what it needs to be to begin to close the gap. Just consider the doubling time of power demand and one can see the magnitude of the problem.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Power crisis control and Metro in Top 5-7 cities of Pakistan would be a great achivement for Nawaz Term

• PANAMA issue is a pending issue but we can't overlook the positive actions to tackle Power crisis

2017 / 2018 Would be a make or break term for Power crisis

These are massive Reversal

 

[danger007]

Technically they are adding more than 10,000mw by December 2018 as promised... I was checking the progress of existing projects under CPEC for example... and the early harvest projects will add 10,400mw... except 1 hydro power project which is scheduled to be completed by 2022... all other projects are likely to be completed by December 2018

But when you see the long term projects from 2014-2030 framework most of them are already under construction and have been pushed for early completion from 2020-22 to 2018-19.. some of them also in 2017. Port Qasim and Sahiwal power plants are getting operational one of the two plants each in 2017, almost completed already in record time. Couple of wind and solar powered projects are already operational

That is on top of Non CPEC projects such as Neelum Jhelum Hydro power project adding 969mw in few months, extension of Tarbela IV is also pushed for early completion in 2017 adding 1400mw and various other smaller hydro power projects adding few hundred MW of electricity

I was checking Pakistan's installed capacity of about 23,000mw is already around 27,000mw after completion of various projects in past 3 years. That is why an average load shedding has already dropped from 12-16 hours to just few hours a day... no more protests and cheap publicity by the media. I foresee installed capacity reaching over 40,000mw by December 2018

These addition may end present energy crisis but Pakistan need to be ready for tomorrow . Present growth rate is very very low. And should invest more into renewable energy.

 

[EpiiC]

Technically they are adding more than 10,000mw by December 2018 as promised... I was checking the progress of existing projects under CPEC for example... and the early harvest projects will add 10,400mw... except 1 hydro power project which is scheduled to be completed by 2022... all other projects are likely to be completed by December 2018

But when you see the long term projects from 2014-2030 framework most of them are already under construction and have been pushed for early completion from 2020-22 to 2018-19.. some of them also in 2017. Port Qasim and Sahiwal power plants are getting operational one of the two plants each in 2017, almost completed already in record time. Couple of wind and solar powered projects are already operational

That is on top of Non CPEC projects such as Neelum Jhelum Hydro power project adding 969mw in few months, extension of Tarbela IV is also pushed for early completion in 2017 adding 1400mw and various other smaller hydro power projects adding few hundred MW of electricity

I was checking Pakistan's installed capacity of about 23,000mw is already around 27,000mw after completion of various projects in past 3 years. That is why an average load shedding has already dropped from 12-16 hours to just few hours a day... no more protests and cheap publicity by the media. I foresee installed capacity reaching over 40,000mw by December 2018

Do you think we can reach our goal of 162,000MW by 2030?

 

[Hyde]

Do you think we can reach our goal of 162,000MW by 2030?

Not at all but that goal is further revised to around 135,000mw which is also not likely to happen.

I think 100,000mw is more realistic figure for demand and production and its likely to meet.

We have about 7000mw of hydro power projects under construction and another 20,000 in final stages of awaiting construction such as Dasu hydro power project.

We also have various IPP projects and if hypothetically speaking all proposed projects goes ahead (not likely) only then expect electricity production of around 100,000mw by 2030

What I can say for sure is, Pakistan will have about 50,000mw of installed capacity by 2022... as all these projects are already under construction (Neelum jhelum, extension of tarbala, 17045mw from cpec, various small dams under construction, wind and solar projects etc)

 

[VCheng]

What I can say for sure is, Pakistan will have about 50,000mw of installed capacity by 2022... as all these projects are already under construction (Neelum jhelum, extension of tarbala, 17045mw from cpec, various small dams under construction, wind and solar projects etc)

That is good news, but the circular debt is already above Rs 650 billion (yet again), and rising steadily.

 

[BATMAN]

There was no crisis before Zardari and there will be non after him.

 

[MadDog]

Technically they are adding more than 10,000mw by December 2018 as promised... I was checking the progress of existing projects under CPEC for example... and the early harvest projects will add 10,400mw... except 1 hydro power project which is scheduled to be completed by 2022... all other projects are likely to be completed by December 2018

But when you see the long term projects from 2014-2030 framework most of them are already under construction and have been pushed for early completion from 2020-22 to 2018-19.. some of them also in 2017. Port Qasim and Sahiwal power plants are getting operational one of the two plants each in 2017, almost completed already in record time. Couple of wind and solar powered projects are already operational

That is on top of Non CPEC projects such as Neelum Jhelum Hydro power project adding 969mw in few months, extension of Tarbela IV is also pushed for early completion in 2017 adding 1400mw and various other smaller hydro power projects adding few hundred MW of electricity

I was checking Pakistan's installed capacity of about 23,000mw is already around 27,000mw after completion of various projects in past 3 years. That is why an average load shedding has already dropped from 12-16 hours to just few hours a day... no more protests and cheap publicity by the media. I foresee installed capacity reaching over 40,000mw by December 2018

I haven't experienced any loadshedding in Lahore in last 3 months. However it happened last night for 1 hour, thats it. In developing countries its pretty common, yet in Pakistan it has been controlled.

 

[Hyde]

That is good news, but the circular debt is already above Rs 650 billion (yet again), and rising steadily.

When did it reach 650 billion rupees? It was only 320 or so billion rupees till last month's report of planning commission?

By the way, I have already given my point that we are heading in right direction and the problem will not go away overnight. Here is a news for you

https://www.samaa.tv/economy/2016/10/circular-debt-in-pakistan-power-sector-declining-imf/

The point is, from 200 to 340 billion rupees of subsidies in 2009-2013, Pakistan has managed to decrease subsidies to just few million dollars per year due to lower oil prices, shutting down least efficient plants, improvement in line losses and recovery of electricity bills from around 80 or so percent to 91% in 2016