Election results 2018

[RIP Pak LAW]

@tps77 @Mugen @war&peace @IceCold @Path-Finder @PakSword @Arsalan @Farah Sohail@BHarwana @Zibago @Moonlight @Verve

FazlurRehman and Hamza Shahbaz are bragging that they will be able to make Government in the center too if they combine their numbers. It is highly unlikely and looks like a rhetoric to entice more independents to join PMLN in Punjab.

Kindly correct the following numbers if I have made any mistake.

National Assembly Numbers Game As Per My Information At This Time:

National Assembly PTI and Allies at this time:

PTI 112 (4 extra IK seats)
BAP 04
PMLQ 03
GDA 02
AML 01
INDP 03
Total 125

National Assembly Opposition at this time:

PMLN 64
PPP 43
MMA 13
ANP 01
IND 00
TOTAL 121

Undecided at this time:

IND 10
MQM 06
BNP 02
JWP 01
PTIN 01
TOTAL 20

TOTAL SEATS 266+4
Majority Required to form Government 137

Ch. Sarwar has to leave 1 NA seat as well. BAP has 2 not 4 I think also Ch. Elahi has 2 NA seats so he will vacate 1 seat hence pti and alliance count goes down to 121 as well .

But elections were held on 270 seats not 272 so required count to form govt is 136 not 137. Also I need to know seats which will be vacated by Imran Khan, Ch. Sarwar and Ch Elahi, will those seats be further considered for required count or not?

 

[Shane]

Mere bluff or something fishy fishy going on behind the scenes... I still think this posturing has more to do with numbers in Punjab and to entice Independent candidates in Punjab assembly.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1023643404985688064

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

Mqm ki support Lena hogi... Forward block pmln se nahi nikul raha...

 

[Shane]

Ch. Sarwar has to leave 1 NA seat as well. BAP has 2 not 4 I think also Ch. Elahi has 2 NA seats so he will vacate 1 seat hence pti and alliance count goes down to 121 as well .

But elections were held on 270 seats not 272 so required count to form govt is 136 not 137. Also I need to know seats which will be vacated by Imran Khan, Ch. Sarwar and Ch Elahi, will those seats be further considered for required count or not?

Thank you for your reply.

You are right about 2 Ch.Sarwar seats as well as 2 PElahi seats, they count as just 1 each.

As I said before IK's 5 seats count as 1.

BAP has confirm 4 NA seats according to information on news sites.

MQM's support is already a done deal but will be kept under raps as agreed.

 

[PakSword]

@tps77 @Mugen @war&peace @IceCold @Path-Finder @PakSword @Arsalan @Farah Sohail@BHarwana @Zibago @Moonlight @Verve

FazlurRehman and Hamza Shahbaz are bragging that they will be able to make Government in the center too if they combine their numbers. It is highly unlikely and looks like a rhetoric to entice more independents to join PMLN in Punjab.

Kindly correct the following numbers if I have made any mistake.

National Assembly Numbers Game As Per My Information At This Time:

National Assembly PTI and Allies at this time:

PTI 112 (4 extra IK seats)
BAP 04
PMLQ 03
GDA 02
AML 01
INDP 03
Total 125

National Assembly Opposition at this time:

PMLN 64
PPP 43
MMA 13
ANP 01
IND 00
TOTAL 121

Undecided at this time:

IND 10
MQM 06
BNP 02
JWP 01
PTIN 01
TOTAL 20

TOTAL SEATS 266+4
Majority Required to form Government 137

All of the IKs seats will be counted initially..

 

[Shane]

As I said before, the posturing by PMLN PPP MMA is that they are working to form Government in the center... this is actually to make up numbers in Punjab and build on that success in the center too.

PTI is having far more success in Punjab than PMLN and they know it too...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1023636941583962112

All of the IKs seats will be counted initially..

That's news for me and excellent if it is confirmed...

 

[PakSword]

That's news for me and excellent if it is confirmed...

Someone in Karachi told me.. who had some political affiliation..

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

All of the IKs seats will be counted initially..

How? Not possible.

When parliament session is called by the president, speaker of the assembly is selected and than pm through voting in the aasembly. Each member of the parliament can only vote once.

MQM's support is already a done deal but will be kept under raps as agreed.

This doesn't make any sense. Keeping under raps is actually hurting PTI's interest as uncertainty in the number count is helping opposition to gather more indps.

Required count will go down as well... Once a seat is vacated until someone is elected in by elections .. As per my opinion

 

[Shane]

How? Not possible.

When parliament session is called by the president, speaker of the assembly is selected and than pm through voting in the aasembly. Each member of the parliament can only vote once.



This doesn't make any sense. Keeping under raps is actually hurting PTI's interest as uncertainty in the number count is helping opposition to gather more indps.

Required count will go down as well... Once a seat is vacated until someone is elected in by elections .. As per my opinion

That is my understanding too but what @PakSword is suggesting might have something to do with election act 2017...if not then the norm is that each member counts as one.

====================================================​

Here is Geo website confirming that PTI is leading the race for CM Punjab on paper:


ISLAMABAD: Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid on Sunday refused to support Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz in forming the government in Punjab, sources informed Geo News.

The seven provincial members will be giving their votes in favour of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s chief minister nominee.

The decision was taken in party’s consultative meeting chaired by party’s president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain.

Hussain directed the party members to further strengthen the alliance with the PTI, adding that the PML-N has always contacted the party whenever it suits their interests.

PML-N leader Ayaz Sadiq had contacted the PML-Q in a bid to secure support for the government formation in Punjab, the party offered a senior post to the PML-Q in Punjab government, said sources.

PTI requires to have the support of at least 148 members to have its chief minister elected.

The party with back-to-back joinings of the independent candidates and now with the support of PML-Q members has emerged, at least on paper, as the largest party in terms of seats share in the assembly with 138 members.

 

[PakSword]

How? Not possible.

When parliament session is called by the president, speaker of the assembly is selected and than pm through voting in the aasembly. Each member of the parliament can only vote once.



This doesn't make any sense. Keeping under raps is actually hurting PTI's interest as uncertainty in the number count is helping opposition to gather more indps.

Required count will go down as well... Once a seat is vacated until someone is elected in by elections .. As per my opinion

That is my understanding too but what @PakSword is suggesting might have something to do with election act 2017...if not then the norm is that each member counts as one.

====================================================​

Here is Geo website confirming that PTI is leading the race for CM Punjab on paper:


ISLAMABAD: Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid on Sunday refused to support Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz in forming the government in Punjab, sources informed Geo News.

The seven provincial members will be giving their votes in favour of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s chief minister nominee.

The decision was taken in party’s consultative meeting chaired by party’s president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain.

Hussain directed the party members to further strengthen the alliance with the PTI, adding that the PML-N has always contacted the party whenever it suits their interests.

PML-N leader Ayaz Sadiq had contacted the PML-Q in a bid to secure support for the government formation in Punjab, the party offered a senior post to the PML-Q in Punjab government, said sources.

PTI requires to have the support of at least 148 members to have its chief minister elected.

The party with back-to-back joinings of the independent candidates and now with the support of PML-Q members has emerged, at least on paper, as the largest party in terms of seats share in the assembly with 138 members.

https://www.ecp.gov.pk/Documents/laws2017/25-6-2018/The Election Rules, 2017 as updated vide 3rd SRO.pdf

The election of the leader of the house is based on the party positions, not the individual member votes.. that's why independents are required to join any one party within certain timeframe..

The party, with other parties' support (if required), presents all the seats won in elections..

So Imran's seats are basically PTI's seats and all will be counted..

If an independent member doesn't join any party within the required time, his/ her seat will be excluded from the total number of seats (i.e. 272) for the purpose of calculation of majority..

So if there are 12 independents, and they don't join any party, the majority will be calculated based on 260 seats, not 272..

I hope this clears any doubts..

 

[Shane]

View attachment 489267

https://www.ecp.gov.pk/Documents/laws2017/25-6-2018/The Election Rules, 2017 as updated vide 3rd SRO.pdf

The election of the leader of the house is based on the party positions, not the individual member votes.. that's why independents are required to join any one party within certain timeframe..

The party, with other parties' support (if required), presents all the seats won in elections..

So Imran's seats are basically PTI's seats and all will be counted..

If an independent member doesn't join any party within the required time, his/ her seat will be excluded from the total number of seats (i.e. 272) for the purpose of calculation of majority..

So if there are 12 independents, and they don't join any party, the majority will be calculated based on 260 seats, not 272..

I hope this clears any doubts..

Indeed, literally!

@tps77 @Mugen @war&peace @IceCold @Path-Finder @PakSword @Arsalan @Farah Sohail@BHarwana @Zibago @Moonlight @Verve

National Assembly Numbers Game As Per My Information, updated by @PakSword , at This Time:

National Assembly PTI and Allies at this time:

PTI 116
BAP 04
PMLQ 03
GDA 02
AML 01
INDP 03
Total 129

National Assembly Opposition at this time:

PMLN 64
PPP 43
MMA 13
ANP 01
IND 00
TOTAL 121

Undecided at this time:

IND 10
MQM 06
BNP 02
JWP 01
PTIN 01
TOTAL 20

TOTAL SEATS 266+4
Majority Required to form Government 137

PTI coalition 129+ MQM 6 = 135 require only 2 more seats

 

[PakSword]

Indeed, literally!

@tps77 @Mugen @war&peace @IceCold @Path-Finder @PakSword @Arsalan @Farah Sohail@BHarwana @Zibago @Moonlight @Verve

National Assembly Numbers Game As Per My Information, updated by @PakSword , at This Time:

National Assembly PTI and Allies at this time:

PTI 116
BAP 04
PMLQ 03
GDA 02
AML 01
INDP 03
Total 129

National Assembly Opposition at this time:

PMLN 64
PPP 43
MMA 13
ANP 01
IND 00
TOTAL 121

Undecided at this time:

IND 10
MQM 06
BNP 02
JWP 01
PTIN 01
TOTAL 20

TOTAL SEATS 266+4
Majority Required to form Government 137

PTI coalition 129+ MQM 6 = 135 require only 2 more seats

135 seats are required now as the elections have been postponed on 2 seats as per my understanding..

Anyway, I don't know if the law I have mentioned above really means what I understand lolll.

The above law is to calculate the reserve seats.. but someone told me that the same is followed to elect the prime minister..

 

[Shane]

@PakSword now you are trolling me, lol, still I have confirmed good news:

MAGIC FIGURE = 149

PTI 123 + PMLQ 7 + INDP 14 + PMLF 2 + BAP 1 = 149

CONGRATULATIONS PDF!!!

I declare PTI Victorious in the race for CM Punjab ​

 

[Verve]

View attachment 489267

https://www.ecp.gov.pk/Documents/laws2017/25-6-2018/The Election Rules, 2017 as updated vide 3rd SRO.pdf

The election of the leader of the house is based on the party positions, not the individual member votes.. that's why independents are required to join any one party within certain timeframe..

The party, with other parties' support (if required), presents all the seats won in elections..

So Imran's seats are basically PTI's seats and all will be counted..

If an independent member doesn't join any party within the required time, his/ her seat will be excluded from the total number of seats (i.e. 272) for the purpose of calculation of majority..

So if there are 12 independents, and they don't join any party, the majority will be calculated based on 260 seats, not 272..

I hope this clears any doubts..

My understanding is different. PM election will not be from 270 seats, it will be from total occupied seats in NA (including women and minorities seats). See 91(4) below for PM election process.

Total seats are 342. Occupied seats (1 count) only vote.

For forming the government, 172 seats are required.

Getting elected as PM is the easy part, forming the government not so easy.

MQM plus all 10 minorities seats required to form a government. This is assuming all 13 independents join PTI, plus GDA plus AML plus BAP etc. That way if no major upsets in by-elections the majority is retained.


Article: 91 The Cabinet



1[91. The Cabinet.—(1) There shall be a Cabinet of Ministers, with the Prime Minister at its head, to aid and advise the President in the exercise of his functions.


(2) The National Assembly shall meet on the twenty-first day following the day on which a general election to the Assembly is held, unless sooner summoned by the President.


(3) After the election of the Speaker and the Deputy Speaker, the National Assembly shall, to the exclusion of any other business, proceed to elect without debate one of its Muslim members to be the Prime Minister.


(4) The Prime Minister shall be elected by the votes of the majority of the total membership of the National Assembly:


Provided that, if no member secures such majority in the first poll, a second poll shall be held between the members who secure the two highest numbers of votes in the first poll and the member who secures a majority of votes of the members present and voting shall be declared to have been elected as Prime Minister:


Provided further that, if the number of votes secured by two or more members securing the highest number of votes is equal, further poll shall be held between them until one of them secures a majority of votes of the members present and voting.

 

[RegularUnimportantGuy]

Indeed, literally!

@tps77 @Mugen @war&peace @IceCold @Path-Finder @PakSword @Arsalan @Farah Sohail@BHarwana @Zibago @Moonlight @Verve

National Assembly Numbers Game As Per My Information, updated by @PakSword , at This Time:

National Assembly PTI and Allies at this time:

PTI 116
BAP 04
PMLQ 03
GDA 02
AML 01
INDP 03
Total 129

National Assembly Opposition at this time:

PMLN 64
PPP 43
MMA 13
ANP 01
IND 00
TOTAL 121

Undecided at this time:

IND 10
MQM 06
BNP 02
JWP 01
PTIN 01
TOTAL 20

TOTAL SEATS 266+4
Majority Required to form Government 137

PTI coalition 129+ MQM 6 = 135 require only 2 more seats

What if all the 20 undecided individuals joins PMLN coalition lol
Then we may get to see zardari as PM