Did we shoot our own passenger plane?

[Dr. Strangelove]

What amazes me is the incompetence that resulted in this tragedy why didnt the Iranians issued a Notam to clear Airspace while they were throwing BMs at American bases before attacking they must have expected a retaliation. Heads should roll in Tehran for whoever is responsible for not clearing the skys.

 

[TheImmortal]

Anyone who knows a little about how the Tor-M1 works also knows that it has a emergency mode when under PGM saturation attack.... sadly in that mode it operates almost fully automatic.
Possible that a reserve crew with low expirance and on highest alert just accidently got into that mode...

Another scenario: Stinger or an all-aspect MANPAD smuggled into Iran was used by a group like MKO to create such a accident. This would be a very effective secret operation to blame Iran.

Or: Cyber operation where IFF system of the Boeing suddenly displayed unknown or enemy to the Tor battery and exploits it's automatic defense mode.

None of these scenarios is unlikely or far fetched, even if it sounds so.

I don’t buy it one second @PeeD that a reserve crew did this.

First of all the Tor-M1 has been in Iranian possession for 12 years so this thinking that somehow a crew is not familiar with the system is baloney.

Second there are not that many Tor-M1s in Iran and to think that Iran would put an amateur crew in at the possibility of a major war is rubbish.

Even if we say it was an amateur crew, Syria has been in civil war for 10 years and its air defense teams killed by the dozens and STILL never had such an accident, unless you count the Israeli jet hiding behind a Russian military aircraft after being targeted.

 

[Oldman1]

Social media Is saying Could have came from Parand where there is heavy military presence

Something I forgot to factor. Which as you pointed out, SAMs these days are mostly on mobile platforms, so they don't have to be stationary near to the base or any military asset that needs protection.

I don’t buy it one second @PeeD that a reserve crew did this.

First of all the Tor-M1 has been in Iranian possession for 12 years so this thinking that somehow a crew is not familiar with the system is baloney.

Second there are not that many Tor-M1s in Iran and to think that Iran would put an amateur crew in at the possibility of a major war is rubbish.

Even if we say it was an amateur crew, Syria has been in civil war for 10 years and its air defense teams killed by the dozens and STILL never had such an accident, unless you count the Israeli jet hiding behind a Russian military aircraft after being targeted.

I think the biggest mistake was allowing civilian planes to keep flying during that time. Even the FAA banned flights around the region for possible danger to the planes. Even the U.S. has in the past shot down our own military planes especially during Gulf War 2. Even a British Tornado using the Patriot system.

 

[PeeD]

Alone the risk of a rouge MANPAD attack to blame Iran would have made it necessary to stop all flights until everything is clear. This was a mistake...

Anyway: there is a mode in which the Ranzier command post does every engagment almost automatically. The individual crews in the Tor systems basically just observe.

But the Ranzier command post is well known to the west... there could have been a hacking or cyber attack involving IFF codes... even a backdoor...
These are risks you have if you use foreign export standard equipment and an enemy with a strong intelligence and spy network.

 

[Bahram Esfandiari]

What amazes me is the incompetence that resulted in this tragedy why didnt the Iranians issued a Notam to clear Airspace while they were throwing BMs at American bases before attacking they must have expected a retaliation. Heads should roll in Tehran for whoever is responsible for not clearing the skys.

The Missile attacks took place at 0120hrs hundreds of km west of Tehran going west to Iraq. The Ukrainian aircraft crashed some time after 0600hrs. I fail to see why a Notam would apply to this incident?

 

[Oldman1]

The Missile attacks took place at 0120hrs hundreds of km west of Tehran going west to Iraq. The Ukrainian aircraft crashed some time after 0600hrs. I fail to see why a Notam would apply to this incident?

Dude, if you just attacked the U.S. military hitting the bases. You think its all clear after that? Assuming the Americans won't respond immediately? You think the SAM operators knew that at the time?

 

[Sal12]

only 2 737-max crash was enough to land entire fleet
and what i posted is not all 737 series its 737-800 only


wrong. french and English also can extract the data

These are the most widely used civilian plane in the world. No matter how many times you discredit it for shooting down a plane, fact will not change.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51055219

 

[OCguy]

I just want to mention in this specific forum, not that I think many care about Western/US opinion, that no coverage of this tragedy is questioning the honor or capability of Iran's military or people. If anyone knows about mistakes when trying to identify distant targets, it is the US. Specifically, we have done it to Iran as well.

There is no joy despite the heated rhetoric between our two nations. The families, the crew, and the passengers, and even the commander that gave the order to launch, are all victims of a big club, that none of us are a member of. RIP.

 

[VEVAK]

So far everything is nothing more than pure speculation!!!!

The one clear mistake made by the Iranian government is their failure to act and ground all flights so soon after the missile attacks by Iran on US bases when clearly there was the potential of U.S. retaliatory air strikes and under such conditions the last thing you would want is civilian Aircraft in the air that you might mistakenly hit for one reason or another. So although we don't yet know why the Aircraft crashed, we do know that Iran did make a mistake by NOT grounding all civilian flights.

 

[maximuswarrior]

The Americans are trying to do an India here.

Right after the 27th of February the world knew that India had been humiliated. The Indians started disputing that the PAF had shot down their pilots and fighters. Basically every narrative and claim of Pakistan was being rejected even long after we showed Abhinandan in our custody.

It seems very strongly that the Americans are turning attention from the missile strike and are trying to divert focus on shooting the airliner. The problem is that there is no conclusive evidence yet for the bizarre claims, but the US regime is already pointing fingers based on hearsay. Making statements without backing up your claims doesn't sound very convincing.

 

[Kastor]

So far everything is nothing more than pure speculation!!!!

The one clear mistake made by the Iranian government is their failure to act and ground all flights so soon after the missile attacks by Iran on US bases when clearly there was the potential of U.S. retaliatory air strikes and under such conditions the last thing you would want is civilian Aircraft in the air that you might mistakenly hit for one reason or another. So although we don't yet know why the Aircraft crashed, we do know that Iran did make a mistake by NOT grounding all civilian flights.

The only thing left to speculation is which missile did the morons fire at the plane.....Best thing to do is come clean, and apologize and remind Ukraine and Canada this is the aftermath of US action in the region......then privately fire the crew and commander and anyone one else on that damn base that was near earshot of that missile battery. This should not have happened if the proper procedures and professionals were in charge....before you take military action of this sort, you have to have a comprehensive list of things to do....NOTAM is a no brainer for this situation...even if the plane was in the sky there are many safeguards such as transponders and radar signature that should have tipped them off this is a big jetliner and not a missile.

 

[Stryker1982]

The only thing left to speculation is which missile did the morons fire at the plane.....Best thing to do is come clean, and apologize and remind Ukraine and Canada this is the aftermath of US action in the region......then privately fire the crew and commander and anyone one else on that damn base that was near earshot of that missile battery. This should not have happened if the proper procedures and professionals were in charge....before you take military action of this sort, you have to have a comprehensive list of things to do....NOTAM is a no brainer for this situation...even if the plane was in the sky there are many safeguards such as transponders and radar signature that should have tipped them off this is a big jetliner and not a missile.

Buddy, Its not even that too, its the fact that the plane was traveling AWAY from Tehran and ASCENDING in altitude, if someone mistook that for a B-52 or a Missile. WOW. Just WOW.

 

[Cthulhu]

1- There are multiple video evidences showing that the plane was heading back to the Airport:

https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1398/10/18/2177378/اولین-فیلم-از-لحظه-آتش-گرفتن-و-سقوط-هواپیمای-اوکراینی

https://twitter.com/x/status/1215398516786253825

https://twitter.com/x/status/1215389367356854280

These videos show that the airplane's engine was on fire and it was heading down to the ground, Videos show the fire spreads and an explosion occurs right before the airplane hits the ground.

2-There are some investigations based on a video that shows a missile hitting the airplane:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1215369903596810242

https://twitter.com/x/status/1215346312901791747

https://twitter.com/x/status/1215370845637500928

https://twitter.com/x/status/1215352457972404226

The source of the video is this telegram channel:

https://****/PS752

This channel is created by a guy named Nariman Gharib.

This dude is one of the most furious anti-Islamic Republic figures of Iran's opposition, So the source of video is really biased, He is also a software developer and and IT expert, So technically he has the skills to temper with videos, Using software like Adobe After Effects. In that video, Someone is filming the black sky right before a missile hits a plane, Which doesn't make any sense, How he knew a missile is about to hit a plane in black sky in that location before it happened? And the guy who took the video is completely silent and doesn't give a reaction to a missile hitting a plane, Which i think is really reallly odd. NYT Geo-located the place where the video was taken, And it is near the last publicly know location of air plane, Based on data available on flightradar24.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ps752#23732569

So guys, I think Nariman told someone to go to that location in night and take a video of where plane's flight path supposed to be, Then used after effects to add the missile and the plane to the video.
Also, This guys has a record of adding malware to some of the apps that he developed, So i really think something stinks about this video.

 

[Sineva]

So far everything is nothing more than pure speculation!!!!

.

That in a nutshell my friend.
I suggest that we all should reserve judgement until after the results of the examination of the flight recorder data and the reconstruction of the wreckage as this should fairly conclusively tell us one way or the other if it was a sam that was responsible.
Until then all of this is merely utterly pointless speculation that proves nothing.

 

[Myself]

That in a nutshell my friend.
I suggest that we all should reserve judgement until after the results of the examination of the flight recorder data and the reconstruction of the wreckage as this should fairly conclusively tell us one way or the other if it was a sam that was responsible.
Until then all of this is merely utterly pointless speculation that proves nothing.

What is bizarre and in fact suspicious is the lack of any formal statement so far made by either Air Defense Force, or IRGC. The second photo published by Babak Tagvaee today cannot be fake unless it belongs to another country or event. Remember the time one Tomcat crashed shortly after taking off from Bandar Abbas AFB (similar to this flight) few years back, and some sources claimed Tor-M1 was responsible for it!