What I am trying to point out is that removing 15-20 million plus 9 million migrant workers from the Bangladesh population would actually bring the current population to around 120 million. Add to this the fact that the 15-20 million + 9 million would not be contributing to the population growth in Bangladesh as they would not be producing children in the country. Which ever way you look at this the figures produced by India are utterly ridiculous.
And what i am trying to point out and have pointed out in my last post is that the loss of those 15-20million has not occurred in a single day but over a period of 41 years.It is not as extreme as you make it out to be.The 9 million legal migrants that you are talking about are migrants from one generation only hence their effect on demographics is more than 15 million spread over 5 generations.
Also i took up the figure of 50 million to prove this point that even if true it is not catastrophic migration but diastrophic.This is the high end figure usually quoted by right wingers.
More neutral assessment put migrant figure at 13.2million ie loss of 5-6 billion bangladeshis over period of 41 years.Hardly a population altering figure.
India & Bangladesh Migration Matrix- Reactive and not Proactive
South Asia Analysis Group
Paper no. 632
17. 03.2003
India & Bangladesh - Migration Matrix- Reactive and not Proactive
by Jyoti M. Pathania
The massive illegal immigration poses a grave danger to our security, social harmony and economic well-being. We have compromised on all these aspects so far. It is time to say enough is enough. Recommendation of National Security System, Feb. 2001.
The long cherished design of Greater Bangladesh, making inroads into the strategic land link of Assam with the rest of India, can lead to severing the entire land mass of North East from the rest of the country Lt. Gen S.K. Sinha Report Mar. 1998.
These are serious statements and the time has come for the Government in India to make an overall review of the problem, particularly from the security point of view.
The problem :
The problem of illegal immigration has been a recurring phenomenon ever since the formation of Bangladesh in 1971. It is only recently when the volume of illegal immigrants has reached alarming limits that in spite of repeated protests to that country, no appreciable sensitivity has been shown by Bangladesh causing the bilateral relations between the two (SAARC) countries to become waspish, strained and suspicious. The immigrants cross over to this country mainly on economic reasons and due to religious oppression of minorities (Hindus) from this Islamic country. Local politicians got an opportunity to strengthen their vote banks by sympathizing with these so called migrants for their short term gains ignoring the long term damage that would be caused to the already poverty stricken country. Indian Governments during their successive tenures also turned a blind eye to this brewing up problem which ultimately was eating up into its resources, employment opportunities, health, literacy and above all also acting as a SECURITY THREAT.
The Reason:
While analyzing the reasons why a sort of continuous slow exodus is taking place from Bangladesh to India, it may be seen that the main causes are:
* Basic need theory i.e. food, shelter and clothing.
* Economic dictates i.e. employment opportunity, better wages and comparatively better living conditions.
* Demographic disproportion especially for minorities (Hindus) in this densely populated country having roughly a density of 780 per sq km as against half that number on Indian side of the border.
* Being cheap labor the Bangladeshis find easy acceptance as domestic helps in Indian homes, which keeps proliferating by ever increasing demand for domestic helps.
Problems faced by India while dealing with illegal migrants:
* Security personnel have no coherent system to deal with massive flow of Bangladesh migrants, so much so their arrest and prosecution is also rare. An incident can be stated here to prove this point. Ranbir Singh Pura Sep 2002, border Security officials (BSF) handed over 162 Bangladeshi illegal immigrants to the local police. The police refused to arrest them because the local police station had no space to house so many people.
* Dual immigration laws followed in India; The illegal migrants (determination by Tribunal) Act 1983 is followed in Assam and the Foreigners Act 1946 is for the rest of the country.
* Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has also given its assessment stating that some Bangladeshis are being trained as saboteurs in Pakistan, acting as a security threat.
* Another difficulty is the riverine terrain of the border area, which makes fencing difficult and poor border management policy
* Despite the border agreement signed by the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and Sheik Mujibur Rahman. 40.6 Km still remains undemarcated and another 6.5 km is still disputed.
* Bangladeshi migrants fulfill the technical requirements of an Indian citizen by possessing voters identity card, ration card, putting the local authorities on a fix.
* Further problem exists because the migrants have settled down permanently, encroached lands and are enjoying the rights of natural citizens.
Bangladesh Migrants Present In various States
Numbers in million
States
5.4
West Bengal
4
Assam
0.5
Bihar
1.5
Delhi
0.8
Tripura
0.5
Rajasthan
0.5
Maharashtra
Key Immigration routes for the Bangladeshis
Malda
Siliguri
Murshidabad
Dinajpur
Courtesy Sinha report
Advantages of Migration for the Bangladeshis:
* About 15 billion dollars are earned annually by Bangladesh migrants hence its a great boost to the countrys GDP.
* Dhaka will have less population to feed if the exodus of people to India and Pakistan continues. BSF argues that Bangladesh intentionally allows its national to migrate to overcome the problem of population explosion.
* Thriving leather and processed meat industry success due to the cattle smuggling from India, wherein Indian cattle are bought at throw away prices and the finished product is exported to the Middle East at almost 3-4 times the cost price. One figure estimates about .5 million dollar worth cattle heads per month from West Bengal are smuggled into Bangladesh.
* A considerable number of laid off workers from Bangladesh Jute Industry have sought haven by joining hands with the illegal traders in the cattle industry, if they leave it now it will be a big loss for them.
* Porous border allows for smuggling of large quantities in cash and kind.
Measures taken by the Indian Government: Some recent developments
* 23 Jan 2003, A two day meeting of India- Bangladesh Joint working group was held in Dhaka to discuss and India conveyed its concern over the presence of illegal Bangladeshis residing in India.
* 14 Feb 2003, India invited the Bangladesh foreign minister Morshed Khan to meet his counterpart Yashwant Sinha to discuss ways to defuse tension over the illegal immigration issue.
* Indian Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani has urged Bangladesh to take back" Illegal Immigrants" numbering about 15 million from India. Advani is in the forefront for the deportation drive.
* 17 Feb. 2003, President APJ Abdul Kalam voicing his concern over the problem at the joint sitting of parliament said the problem of illegal migration from Bangladesh has assumed serious proportions and affects many states. The government is determined to take all necessary steps to check this problem.
* Foreign Secretaries are to meet in the first week of April in Dhaka to discuss this issue.
* Government has decided to complete fencing of the border by 2007, and install neon lights and reduce the distance among watch towers.
* Goverment has also decided to issue National identity card scheme to help track down foreign nationals who pose a security risk.
* A separate division on border management has been created in the union home ministry for focused attention on border related issue.
* The government has sanctioned Rs. 435 crores to the BSF for modernization of its communication network.
* Deployment of high tech electronic surveillance equipment on the border.
* Formation of a state level standing committee and task force by the border states having coastline.
Effects Of Illegal Immigration on India:
* Increase in crime rate and other subversive activities: There has been 20% increase in crime, mainly burglary. Figures show that robbery in the Kolkata suburbs, mostly committed by Bangladeshis (Pioneer 9 Feb 2002). In Bihar 19-20 lakh Bangladeshi nationals have settled down in 4 districts of Purnea, Katihar, Araria and Kishenganj and these districts have become the strongholds of cross-border smugglers and arms mafia. In Punjab recently Bangladeshis were caught up in the organ trade scandal.
* Security threat: Sinha report talks specifically of the disastrous security implications on India. The spectre looms large of the indigenous people of Assam being reduced to a minority in their home state, Balbir K Punj is of the opinion that the infiltration activities has assumed a scary significance in the light of the present low key Talibanisation of Bangladesh.
* Spurt in terrorist organizations: Since 1990 Assam has seen the birth of 9 Muslim militant outfits owing allegiance to Harkat ul Mujaheedin and Lashkar-e-Toiba.
* Demographic and economic threat: drain on our resources. 85% of the total encroached forest land in Assam was found to be in the hands of the Bangladeshi migrants, and 43 of the 126 assembly constituencies in Assam are their stronghold.
* Cheap labor: these migrants are absorbed as cheap laborers in Kolkata and Delhi, Punjab and Mumbai providing cheap labor in contrast to their Indian counterpart.
*Indian government is very poorly equipped in terms of available data, legislative measures etc to sustain flush out operations for a long period of time.
Bangladesh government migration laws- lacunae:
* The immigration law ordinance of 1982 is the basic migration law of Bangladesh specifying rules and regulations for migrant workers and setting a recruiting fees.
* The government has now started playing an active role in the migration process in contrast to passive role in the 60s. The Bangladesh Bureau of manpower Employment and training (BMET) established in 1976 oversees monitoring the flow of overseas migration.
* The lacunae being that the government has no comprehensive scheme for the returning migrants.
* The whole process of rules and regulations set up by BMET is arduous and time consuming.
* Recruitment fees to be paid to BMET is very high and not payable by the poor , who end up selling their land and houses for payment of the fees.
Suggestions to the problem:
* Temporary work permits to be given to the migrants on humanitarian grounds.
* Fencing of the complete border.
* Resume serious dialogue to demarcate the undemarcated border.
* Put an end to smuggling and cattle trade.
* Clear direction to be given to the BSF to stop further infiltration.
* Amendment of the IMDT Act and enforcing of the Foreigners Act 1946.
* MEA should take serious notice of this problem.
* Systematic, concrete and time bound plan to drive out the illegal migrants.
* The problem to be seen in a wider perspective, not only as a humanitarian problem
Conclusion:
It is high time that the Indian government had a proactive policy rather than a reactive policy to this issue. The need of the hour is to understand that it is no longer a humanitarian problem but a security problem which has become a hydra headed monster. Time has come to deal with it assertively but without hampering bilateral relations. It is time for both countries to understand the seriousness of the issue and set up time bound measures once and for all. This will help in its final solution and the problem will not emerge cyclically as it often does.
