Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[halloweene]

As we have heard soon enough too many times, it wouldn't surprise anyone.
People will react only when it's actually signed

Absolutely. If PR Hollande is indeeed the guest for republic date, i sincirely think we have a small idea.

 

[black-hawk_101]

Will France going to allow PNAF to buy Rafaels? If PNAF will gain money to buy some 50 Rafaels?

 

[GURU DUTT]

Will France going to allow PNAF to buy Rafaels? If PNAF will gain money to buy some 50 Rafaels?

if you have money then why not dint french sold you mirage jets in past

 

[Taygibay]

Rafales, black-hawk_101 mate Rafael is an Israeli weapons maker.

But to answer you, France might but if India signs, it will be unlikely anyway from Islamambad's side!
Specifically,

-France has sold to Pakistan before and relations are good;

-The worry over selling top fighter today would be Pak-China connection
& of copies of all the goodies on-board appearing on the J-31 or newer;

-And on Pakistan's side, the question is related to India's buy if it happens…

_Do you want the same plane as the enemy :​

+ side, the best pilots will win
-- side, the air force with many less aircrafts will lose?​

That complication by the way is one of the less foreseen consequences of making only one fighter
per nation, from Sweden to France to USA ( F-22 capped, F-35 to be lone in production by 2021 )
or worst a fourth of one like our cousins! When you have but one product to sell, some successes
in export will automatically bar the neighbour even if you are friends with both!

China is at present, if it learns to make engines, positioned in front of Russia to have multiple models
for export which is a fix that happened very normally in the past when a nation X sold plane A to buddy
nation 1 and plane B to buddy nation 2 and them let have a go at it ( thus making the buddy part hazy ).

It would make China the new superpower and somehow almost seems more fair than Washington's dream
of the entire world equipped with F-35 as lone fighter, a battler royal declared, with the highest count in planes
( see above explain. ) and preserved capacities and a deactivator switch for the units sold to others, etc.

Oh! Well!

So short answer, possible but unlikely. Also explains the Typhoon slant of some revered members recently ...

Good day to you mate, Tay.

 

[sathya]

UAE in final stages of talks to buy Rafale jets |

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Some Latest murmurs
DM MP after returning from Russia has stated to IAF chief about discussion on FGFA program
Overall cost now is $35 Bn
All issues of IAF will be resolved and PMF plan is prototypes by 2019
After the detailed discussion, DM MP is so impressed that his views on IAF fleet is as follows

• 154 Single seater FGFA assembled in India with max parts produced in Russia as India does not have a 5th Gen parts manufacturing MIC
• 65 off the shelf single seater in PAKFA form for quick augmentation of depleting squadron strength.
• A total of 219 5th Gen single seaters (original plan was 214 single seater)
• Twin seater numbers are not defined but MP had asked IAF to ascertain how many are required. The figures he is approximating at around 50+ again modified from FGFA and assembled in India

DM MP had also updated FM about his tour details and updates about financial part of 5th Gen project. He had given the timeline of 36 rafale contract for max Mar 2016 and is of the opinion to skip signing in Jan 27th 2016 as he needs to "discuss" with IAF about Rafale.

DM MP had also asked IAF chief about the need of rafale again as now IAF will get almost 250 5th Gen FGFA/Pakfa combo and money will be pumped into the project in a big way. He had clarified that such a strategic investment is needed for other projects cooperation (S400, SSn, SSBN and third N sub lease rumoured to be SSGN Yasen class after kashalot)
IAF chief reiterated his need for minimum of 6 squadrons of rafale type birds. If we buy rafale F3 OT4 standard it will be delivered by 2018 max and can be far more beneficial for IAF. Also he stressed on DPSA part of rafale role. MP said about not seeing movement on MII part of rafale and needs clarity from French side expected when NAMO meets French President soon.

@Abingdonboy @SR-91

 

[Abingdonboy]

Some Latest murmurs
DM MP after returning from Russia has stated to IAF chief about discussion on FGFA program
Overall cost now is $35 Bn
All issues of IAF will be resolved and PMF plan is prototypes by 2019
After the detailed discussion, DM MP is so impressed that his views on IAF fleet is as follows

• 154 Single seater FGFA assembled in India with max parts produced in Russia as India does not have a 5th Gen parts manufacturing MIC
• 65 off the shelf single seater in PAKFA form for quick augmentation of depleting squadron strength.
• A total of 219 5th Gen single seaters (original plan was 214 single seater)
• Twin seater numbers are not defined but MP had asked IAF to ascertain how many are required. The figures he is approximating at around 50+ again modified from FGFA and assembled in India

DM MP had also updated FM about his tour details and updates about financial part of 5th Gen project. He had given the timeline of 36 rafale contract for max Mar 2016 and is of the opinion to skip signing in Jan 27th 2016 as he needs to "discuss" with IAF about Rafale.

DM MP had also asked IAF chief about the need of rafale again as now IAF will get almost 250 5th Gen FGFA/Pakfa combo and money will be pumped into the project in a big way. He had clarified that such a strategic investment is needed for other projects cooperation (S400, SSn, SSBN and third N sub lease rumoured to be SSGN Yasen class after kashalot)
IAF chief reiterated his need for minimum of 6 squadrons of rafale type birds. If we buy rafale F3 OT4 standard it will be delivered by 2018 max and can be far more beneficial for IAF. Also he stressed on DPSA part of rafale role. MP said about not seeing movement on MII part of rafale and needs clarity from French side expected when NAMO meets French President soon.

@Abingdonboy @SR-91

As expected- MP is out of his depth running around asking stupid questions and not having any firm grasp on operational requirements.

 

[Abingdonboy]

+ @PARIKRAMA where did you get that info from bro? A bit of a a blow to the hopes that more than 36 Rafales are coming- MP seems to be (stupidly) opposing this whilst the ACM is adamant.

 

[SR-91]

As expected- MP is out of his depth running around asking stupid questions and not having any firm grasp on operational requirements.

+ @PARIKRAMA where did you get that info from bro? A bit of a a blow to the hopes that more than 36 Rafales are coming- MP seems to be (stupidly) opposing this whilst the ACM is adamant.

@PARIKRAMA

These rumors does have some truth to it bro.

There is enormous push from Russia to sign FGFA deal. They are hell bent on stepping over Paris and given their situation, they will agree to most Indian demands.
As far as the Rafale saga goes, India will proceed with min. Of 80 jets and as much as 180.

India will buy Rafale and FGFA. Now, the bigger question is, Will India spend over 50 billion on buying these jets?.................. That is huge. Another way to do it is, India buys less but has decent numbers on options. India is in a strong position.

Deal with Paris will get signed up by 27 Jan 2016. We will have a better understanding next month, when Modi goes to Russia.

 

[SanjeevaniButi]

@PARIKRAMA

These rumors does have some truth to it bro.

There is enormous push from Russia to sign FGFA deal. They are hell bent on stepping over Paris and given their situation, they will agree to most Indian demands.
As far as the Rafale saga goes, India will proceed with min. Of 80 jets and as much as 180.

India will buy Rafale and FGFA. Now, the bigger question is, Will India spend over 50 billion on buying these jets?.................. That is huge. Another way to do it is, India buys less but has decent numbers on options. India is in a strong position.

Deal with Paris will get signed up by 27 Jan 2016. We will have a better understanding next month, when Modi goes to Russia.

LOL.... do you really think India will allow 50 BILLION $ to flow into Foreign countries so that IAF will get shiny toys ?

So far the ONLY deal for Rafale is 36 and if the rumours are true, MoD is asking IAF to reconsider that too.

So really even that 36 is in doubt. All these are along expected lines and the only one's "shocked" are the Fan Boys.

GoI is still pushing for LCA and AMCA....... where do you think the money for all this is going to come from ?

 

[PARIKRAMA]

+ @PARIKRAMA where did you get that info from bro? A bit of a a blow to the hopes that more than 36 Rafales are coming- MP seems to be (stupidly) opposing this whilst the ACM is adamant.

There is enormous push from Russia to sign FGFA deal. They are hell bent on stepping over Paris and given their situation, they will agree to most Indian demands.

DM MP is always opposed to rafale .. Don know why. He was very keen for LCA to be propagated as MII. His plans for MK2 took a back seat and now he seems to be again pursuing AMCA to be launched under MII umbrella project for showcasing NDA commitment for indigenous platforms

I was talking with few folks (retired IAF) whom IAF top brass had expressed deep dissatisfaction and frustrations over Diwali. It seems DM MP is head over heels with Russians over the 5th Gen project. If you see what i wrote, his almost agreeable to the fact that India cannot make 5th gen bird due to lack of a high tech MIC and is ready importing even all parts in CKD/Kits for assembling in HAL. The project structure more or less may be inferior to even MKI where we did some good work over time and here its clear from day 1 "we dont have a capable MIC" line from Russia.

The fact is Rafale is now more or less a done deal based on pure prestige issue of NaMo so you can be assured for first 36 and the options. Dassault clearly says the two versions F3 OT4 version and F3R versions will be parallely produced till 2017 post which production rate increase would mean more or less F3R version only. Egypt has F3 and later f3R whereas Qatar has F3R only.BTW advanced payment from Qatar is still pending and work on Qatari Rafales has not started at all not evne in production planning and allocation. Historically it has produced Mirage 2000 two different standards also parallel post which it shifted to the latest version. So whatever we need and we plan needs to be ordered in a time bound planned manner. I suppose if we order later we may have to either shell out a bit higher for F3R or may be have to see if reverting to F3 OT4 standard could lead to either delays or a small cost for adjustment.

BTW FM and PM are in the same page and they do want rafale but may drop the MII part completely and order in 2 tranches of 36+18 follow on now and another batch of 36+18 by 2019 making a total of 108. The progress in MII part seems a bit circumspect as clarity from Dassault is not there much and MOD is not pushing them hard too.

What i seems to understand that the game played out by DM MP is delaying the signing as much as possible and get the numbers down citing
1. Better alternatives in the form of 5th Gen (weird logic as air superiority is suppose to address DEAD/SEAD missions)
2. Investments in domestic projects (LCA Mark 1A and AMCA)
3. New Anti Aerial systems like S400 procurement which kind of takes the economy of war principle ( a missile is much cheaper than an aircraft so buy more missiles at a cost of 1 jet and burn the intruding aircrafts to rubble)
4. The planned Capex for fresh new acquisitions is used up or having limited finances and hence all requests cant be ful filled (in short DM MP says i cannot agree to all rafales so either buy small numbers of just 36 as PM wants or think of some other platform)

Surely, ACM had shown his frustrations to top brass who are stumped by how DM changed his tone and color by just one visit. IN folks are even more worried that next if USA showcases F35 for IAC2 then thats also sealed come what price and logistical nightmare we may have..

The IAF folks are waiting for a meeting between Prz Hollande and NaMo to see if they take care of the Rafale deal in a pragmatic way or let it play out by the tunes of DM MP. At present unless a diktat comes from PM and FM, Dm MP will keep throwing every obstacles to Rafale acquisition by India. The only change can be a superb deal package by French side to change this position.

Dark clouds in the sky.. Seems the more delay in signing and finalising, the higher chances the Rafale deal will become messier.

 

[SanjeevaniButi]

DM MP is always opposed to rafale .. Don know why. He was very keen for LCA to be propagated as MII. His plans for MK2 took a back seat and now he seems to be again pursuing AMCA to be launched under MII umbrella project for showcasing NDA commitment for indigenous platforms

I was talking with few folks (retired IAF) whom IAF top brass had expressed deep dissatisfaction and frustrations over Diwali. It seems DM MP is head over heels with Russians over the 5th Gen project. If you see what i wrote, his almost agreeable to the fact that India cannot make 5th gen bird due to lack of a high tech MIC and is ready importing even all parts in CKD/Kits for assembling in HAL. The project structure more or less may be inferior to even MKI where we did some good work over time and here its clear from day 1 "we dont have a capable MIC" line from Russia.

The fact is Rafale is now more or less a done deal based on pure prestige issue of NaMo so you can be assured for first 36 and the options. Dassault clearly says the two versions F3 OT4 version and F3R versions will be parallely produced till 2017 post which production rate increase would mean more or less F3R version only. Egypt has F3 and later f3R whereas Qatar has F3R only.BTW advanced payment from Qatar is still pending and work on Qatari Rafales has not started at all not evne in production planning and allocation. Historically it has produced Mirage 2000 two different standards also parallel post which it shifted to the latest version. So whatever we need and we plan needs to be ordered in a time bound planned manner. I suppose if we order later we may have to either shell out a bit higher for F3R or may be have to see if reverting to F3 OT4 standard could lead to either delays or a small cost for adjustment.

BTW FM and PM are in the same page and they do want rafale but may drop the MII part completely and order in 2 tranches of 36+18 follow on now and another batch of 36+18 by 2019 making a total of 108. The progress in MII part seems a bit circumspect as clarity from Dassault is not there much and MOD is not pushing them hard too.

What i seems to understand that the game played out by DM MP is delaying the signing as much as possible and get the numbers down citing
1. Better alternatives in the form of 5th Gen (weird logic as air superiority is suppose to address DEAD/SEAD missions)
2. Investments in domestic projects (LCA Mark 1A and AMCA)
3. New Anti Aerial systems like S400 procurement which kind of takes the economy of war principle ( a missile is much cheaper than an aircraft so buy more missiles at a cost of 1 jet and burn the intruding aircrafts to rubble)
4. The planned Capex for fresh new acquisitions is used up or having limited finances and hence all requests cant be ful filled (in short DM MP says i cannot agree to all rafales so either buy small numbers of just 36 as PM wants or think of some other platform)

Surely, ACM had shown his frustrations to top brass who are stumped by how DM changed his tone and color by just one visit. IN folks are even more worried that next if USA showcases F35 for IAC2 then thats also sealed come what price and logistical nightmare we may have..

The IAF folks are waiting for a meeting between Prz Hollande and NaMo to see if they take care of the Rafale deal in a pragmatic way or let it play out by the tunes of DM MP. At present unless a diktat comes from PM and FM, Dm MP will keep throwing every obstacles to Rafale acquisition by India. The only change can be a superb deal package by French side to change this position.

Dark clouds in the sky.. Seems the more delay in signing and finalising, the higher chances the Rafale deal will become messier.

Its a bit silly to accuse DM MP of being a Russophile.

He is an Indian DM, First and Last and will always consider options that are BEST for India.

ACM OTOH is the IAF chief and he will Only consider options that are Best for IAF.

India trumps IAF every-time.

Again NaMO will NEVER put his personal "prestige" over India. His behaviour with Nations which have insulted him and denied him Visa etc. is proof enough.

It is safe to Assume Russia has offered some lucrative options to India which France cannot match. The French did their best to mess up the deal and now the chicken has come home to roost. No point in crying "foul" (pun intended)

Finally the dark clouds in the sky is for Rafale, the silver lining is for IAF and the good monsoon that follows will be for India.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Well no doubt Russia had offered a superior package which is more lucrative then what French had offered over rafale. IMHO after various discussions, it seems PAKFA program itself is divided into 2 stages. Stage 1 is what present PAKFA program is with IOC scheduled for 2016. Stage 2 is the actual PAKFA having maximum of 5th gen tech including the new engine, avionics and other modules which are under development.

The actual version of PAK FA/FGFA for IAF and RuAF is yet to start test flight. And this one will be far ahead in comparison to the PAK FA Stage-1 or Rafale F4 a step forward in rafale development program in the region of 2023 timeline.

Russia should already have spent billions in development of PAK FA as of today. If the Stage 1 is expected to be as good as Rafale F4 (expected in 2023 timeline) and without the very best of its sensor suites and the engine, then the expectation is a lot of money has been spent already to ensure it remains the very best of under 5th gen bird. (bcz the heart "engine" is still not done and tested). It also implies its above the parameters of chinese 5th gen programs but comparing to F22 is still some what dodgy. We do know in one exercise Rafales had got good kills over F22 and thus if PAKFA stage 1 is superior to rafale then yes going against F22 can be a good possibility with higher chances of winning. It implies stage 2 gives even deeper upgrades and better success rates.

@SanjeevaniButi
I am not saying DM Mp is ruskies lover or Russophile. What I am saying is that the package details may not be given to IAF chief in an elaborate manner making them not see the bigger picture. if PAKFA off the shelf Stage 1 jets are able to under take all the mission parameters of Rafale and is able to showcase better efficiency and better performance then go for them. The commanality serves us much better anytime. I dont see that as an issue. In fact i do believe Russian may have presented these facts as presentation to DM MP and impressed to him that Rafale is not the only Omnirole but PAKFA is also Omnirole aircraft. If that is a honest portrayal then its an awesome development.

The issue of prestige for NaMo comes from the fact that with MMRCA cacnellation, it was PM NaMo only who requested for 36 jets for quick delivery not any IAF fellow or DM. The words and weights of a PM requesting for a good deal and quick delivery is much more in strategic parlance than my words. So whatever happens i do see the 36+options being exercised happening. The wriggle will of course be a good bargain and now with Russians increasing the stakes with a good package, I don know about final numbers as that question is now of course needs an answer from french side.I do feel French side needs to pull a bunny out and now make a case for either proving Rafale is better or offer a superior package and complete the negotiations.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

@PARIKRAMA

Both Rafale and FGFA are equally important

We will get both simply because they will serve for a very long time till 2050

And without a strong IAF ; we will see a huge rise in Chinese bullying

The costs look prohibitive but they are spread over a TEN year period in case of Rafale
and even longer for FGFA

With the increase in GDP ; we can afford it

In the year 1996 when we started SU 30 acquisition our GDP was
ONE FIFTH of what it is Today ( just 20 % )

If we had not started it that time ; then IAF would have been in a pitiable shape

 

[SanjeevaniButi]

@SanjeevaniButi
I am not saying DM Mp is ruskies lover or Russophile. What I am saying is that the package details may not be given to IAF chief in an elaborate manner making them not see the bigger picture. if PAKFA off the shelf Stage 1 jets are able to under take all the mission parameters of Rafale and is able to showcase better efficiency and better performance then go for them. The commanality serves us much better anytime. I dont see that as an issue. In fact i do believe Russian may have presented these facts as presentation to DM MP and impressed to him that Rafale is not the only Omnirole but PAKFA is also Omnirole aircraft. If that is a honest portrayal then its an awesome development.

The issue of prestige for NaMo comes from the fact that with MMRCA cacnellation, it was PM NaMo only who requested for 36 jets for quick delivery not any IAF fellow or DM. The words and weights of a PM requesting for a good deal and quick delivery is much more in strategic parlance than my words. So whatever happens i do see the 36+options being exercised happening. The wriggle will of course be a good bargain and now with Russians increasing the stakes with a good package, I don know about final numbers as that question is now of course needs an answer from french side.I do feel French side needs to pull a bunny out and now make a case for either proving Rafale is better or offer a superior package and complete the negotiations.

I am sure the Rafale will be better than PAKFA in certain parameters and PAKFA will be better in certain other parameters. But in a Govt. to Got. deal and Strategic decision making , the aircraft performance is only ONE of the parameters that goes into decision making.

It always will be a Trade Off and if history is any proof, the trade off ALWAYS goes in the favour of Russians because they were always willing to offer more and give more.

Maybe Plan B will be to provide ground support via UAV and cruise missiles etc where IA will have greater operational control. Who can say ?

NaMo in all probability looked into an option provided by Rafale for Off the Shelf purchase of 36 AC. Possibly made as an Negotiation ploy. Only NaMo called their Bluff. (I have been in such situations and know how it works)

Its again silly to assume the PM will ask for 36 without clearing it first with DM and IAF. But given the circumstances I am going to guess that 36 Rafale just might make the cut. Maybe 18 more, but that's it.

Remember Mirage 2000 ? Those who do not learn from History is doomed to repeat it. Applies to Dassault and IAF.

@PARIKRAMA

Both Rafale and FGFA are equally important

We will get both simply because they will serve for a very long time till 2050

And without a strong IAF ; we will see a huge rise in Chinese bullying

The costs look prohibitive but they are spread over a TEN year period in case of Rafale
and even longer for FGFA

With the increase in GDP ; we can afford it

In the year 1996 when we started SU 30 acquisition our GDP was
ONE FIFTH of what it is Today ( just 20 % )

If we had not started it that time ; then IAF would have been in a pitiable shape

Currently Indian Economy is LARGER than Russian Economy.

Its not the 1950s Any more.

If Russia with a smaller Economy builds their own Stuff, Its about Time INDIA does the same.

I am certain the GoI recognizes this fact even if you don't.