4 SQNs makes even less sense than 2 OR 6. There is some justification for believing 36 only because the PM had initiated this himself (but all he said was this number was to meet the
immediate needs of the IAF and, as per an agreement with the French govt, would be delivered ASAP- did he say this was the final figure?) BUT 4 SQNs is an entirely arbitrary figure and when the ACM has officially stated the requirement for 6 SQNs of Rafales I don't see where 4 comes from.
Oh come on, 36 jets are NOT even for 2 SQNs (including war reserves). I'm sorry, but I can't take anyone who honestly buys this number as the final number seriously. The ONLY reason anyone is parroting this 36 figure is because of the exact wording the PM used some 6 months ago. Since then the ACM has categorically stated figures to the contrary AND Dassualt have made plans for far more to be sold in India INCLUDING some to be built in India. It is absolutely no secret that Dassualt have been holding talks with a number of Indian private entities in this regard and
@PARIKRAMA has given his own experience on the financing of such an enterprise (this is not mere fiction).
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@GURU DUTT guys, pray tell me what the IAF is going to do to address the distinct paucity of strike aircraft in its inventory if you are sticking to the nonsensical (IMHO) 2 SQN figure as being final? And you are barred from using more LCA, MKI or FGFA (a paper plane to this day btw) as an option because NONE are long range strike aircraft even remotely as capable as the Rafale in this regard. Nor are you allowed to speculate about a second type of aircraft (F-18, F-16, Gripen, MiG-35, Gripen etc etc) being inducted for the exact same role as the Rafale to operate alongside it- this is just NEVER going to happen and can be ruled out entirely.
Let me paint the picture that will exist a decade from now (2025):
1) Jaguar DARIN IIIs will be in service but with limited utility outside of CAS with the emergence of sophisticated AD systems on both the India's troubled borders.
2) Mirage 2000-5 Mk.2s (a true multi-role aircraft with significant strike capabilities but with a single engine and relatively small airframe is no long-range strike a/c) and MiG-29UPG will be entering the final stages of their lives (will be out of service in 2030)
3) The Air dominance "Super" Su-30MKIs number around 300
4) Around 150 (hopefully more with a parallel production line coming online in the near future) LCAs (Mk.1/Mk.1P/Mk.2) are in service
5)
Best case scenario 2 SQNs of next generation air dominance FGFAs are in service but have only recently been inducted and perhaps their combat doctrine is not even established by TACDE as of yet.
By 2030 the situation is similar, numbers of the LCA and FGFA have changed (irrelevant in the strike context) but the Mirages are gone.
Perhaps the AMCA (to be a replacement for the Jaguars and Mig-27s- so a strike fighter) is
just entering service but at this point (2030) I doubt even 1 operational SQN of AMCA will exist- forget about being fully integrated into the combat doctrine of the IAF (TACDE's forte).
And, let me get this right, you guys are expecting the ENTIRE long range strike capability against two capable adversaries (oh and fighter-borne nuclear delivery duties) of the IAF (the 3rd largest AF in the world by then- charged with securing the skies of a $5TN USD economy (by 2025)) to consist of only
36-72 airframes (leave aside all the associated logistical/maintenance complications, and costs, associated with such a limited number)???
This is without stating the obvious such as the PLAAF would have taken and ENORMOUS step forward by then and the PAF won't have stood still either.
This is some truly unfathomable logic.
The 4.5++ Rafale with AESA, proven deep strike capabilities, a world class (perhaps unparalleled right now in the world and will certainly be in the region for over a decade) data fusion suite and a clear and well funded future growth road map is simply the way to go and in big numbers. The Rafale will compliment the MKI/FGFA and LCAs perfectly and will be truly lethal machines beyond at least 2035.
The more I look at it, the more I am thinking even 126-189 would be far too few (these were figures the IAF came up with in the mid 2000s, the threat matrix has changed significantly- for the worse) AND the FGFA's induction date has been pushed back to the point it is unclear when it will enter service but it certainly won't be before 2022.
@MilSpec @Koovie @SR-91 @anant_s @Aminroop
