Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[PARIKRAMA]

http://m.aviationweek.com/awindefense/dassault-struggles-rafale-production-rate

Dassault Struggles With Rafale Production Rate
Aerospace Daily & Defense Report
SAINT-CLOUD, France—More Rafale export contracts are in the offing but are taking time to materialize, causing Dassault Aviation to strive to adjust the fighter’s production ...

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@PARIKRAMA can you manage the full article ?

Dassault Struggles With Rafale Production Rate
Aerospace Daily & Defense Report
SAINT-CLOUD, France—More Rafale export contracts are in the offing but are taking time to materialize, causing Dassault Aviation to strive to adjust the fighter’s production rate.

When the first two deals were signed with Egypt and Qatar, the airframer had reasonable hope that India would quickly follow. In anticipation, it decided last year to increase the monthly production rate from one to three (Dassault counts 11 work months per year).

“We wanted to fulfill our commitments for those contracts already signed,” CEO Eric Trappier said during a July 21 press conference here. The message to prospective customers was that they could expect a short lead time.

But when the company saw the Indian agreement and a potential fourth one (likely to be the United Arab Emirates) slipping to the right, it slowed down the ramp-up. The production rate is now standing at two on the Bordeaux Mérignac final assembly line. It may decrease, should the Indian arrangement fail to happen soon, Trappier said.

Compounding the difficulty are the deliveries the French government has postponed—the nation’s forces will only receive 26 new fighters from 2014-2019. The ministry of defense was counting on the exportation to compensate. But Egypt’s and Qatar’s Rafales are only partially counterbalancing France’s budget-saving move.

Dassault has planned to deliver six Rafales to its home country this year (four of which were handed over in the first half). All three deliveries scheduled to Egypt this year occurred in the first half.

To mitigate the revised Rafale procurement plan, French defense procurement agency DGA has decided to upgrade 55 Mirage 2000D ground-attack aircraft in service with the French air force. A gun pod and Mica air-to-air missiles (for self-protection purposes) will be added, while the weapon system will be improved. Dassault and MBDA are in charge of the renovation work. So far, they have a firm order for the development phase and the upgrade of the first few aircraft, Trappier said.

He has renewed hope that the tantalizing Indian contract will be inked very soon, with a defense acquisition council having met in June in New Delhi. The offset agreement is to be worth 50% of the deal.

 

[randomradio]

sorry..i am a rafale fanboy!!

And he's the best thing that's happened to the Rafale for India. Numbers have gone from 126 to potentially 180 for IAF, and possibly 54-72 for the IN. His work.

 

[kaykay]

And he's the best thing that's happened to the Rafale for India. Numbers have gone from 126 to potentially 180 for IAF, and possibly 54-72 for the IN. His work.

Where? I see only 36 Rafales and thats it.

 

[randomradio]

Compounding the difficulty are the deliveries the French government has postponed—the nation’s forces will only receive 26 new fighters from 2014-2019. The ministry of defense was counting on the exportation to compensate. But Egypt’s and Qatar’s Rafales are only partially counterbalancing France’s budget-saving move.

Doesn't make sense. 2014-19 at 11 per year is 66 jets. France ordered 26. Egypt ordered 24+12. Qatar ordered 24. That's 74+12. That's far more than 66 jets.

UAE has only moved their decision by a couple of years. That's compensated with the IAF's order for 36 and IN's order for 18. The French 5th tranche of 45 and UAE's order of 60 will easily make up for the uncertainty.

That's 213 jets pending, not counting the French order for 26 and the 6 already delivered to Egypt.

The 26 aircraft for France are 11+8+6+1. So after this year only 1 aircraft will be pending for the French right up to 2019. So France won't be taking any deliveries for 2 years. And the Dassault line will have limited delivery next year because of the expansion work.

And this is also not counting any options from current orders or future orders. Apart from Egypt, Qatar, India and UAE, 5 other countries are interested in the Rafale.

All three deliveries scheduled to Egypt this year occurred in the first half.

Doesn't make sense. The Egyptian orders were from last year, when France took only 8 aircraft. The deliveries for this year are yet to happen.

Where? I see only 36 Rafales and thats it.

IN will mostly be buying 18 jets.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Doesn't make sense. 2014-19 at 11 per year is 66 jets. France ordered 26. Egypt ordered 24+12. Qatar ordered 24. That's 74+12. That's far more than 66 jets.

The problem is that Tappier have anticipated the Indian order and decided a production rate of 3/month. Now the delay drive the rate to 2/month and the question is: "do we need to come back to 1/month?"

 

[randomradio]

The problem is that Tappier have anticipated the Indian order and decided a production rate of 3/month. Now the delay drive the rate to 2/month and the question is: "do we need to come back to 1/month?"

His apprehensions won't be an issue pretty soon. It's most likely only to put pressure on Parrikar.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Doesn't make sense. 2014-19 at 11 per year is 66 jets. France ordered 26. Egypt ordered 24+12. Qatar ordered 24. That's 74+12. That's far more than 66 jets.

UAE has only moved their decision by a couple of years. That's compensated with the IAF's order for 36 and IN's order for 18. The French 5th tranche of 45 and UAE's order of 60 will easily make up for the uncertainty.

That's 213 jets pending, not counting the French order for 26 and the 6 already delivered to Egypt.

The 26 aircraft for France are 11+8+6+1. So after this year only 1 aircraft will be pending for the French right up to 2019. So France won't be taking any deliveries for 2 years. And the Dassault line will have limited delivery next year because of the expansion work.

And this is also not counting any options from current orders or future orders. Apart from Egypt, Qatar, India and UAE, 5 other countries are interested in the Rafale.



Doesn't make sense. The Egyptian orders were from last year, when France took only 8 aircraft. The deliveries for this year are yet to happen.



IN will mostly be buying 18 jets.

The report has one small error. The computation he has based on 66 is actually 76 as of 30.06.2016 and is taken from the press release

As you see break up is
exports - 42 -( Egypt 18+ Qatar 24)
domestic - 34
About Export orders

About domestic confirmation was given in the same analysis

So if i consider the follow on potential orders then
Egypt 12
Qatar 12
-----------------
Thats 24

Indian order
IAF -36
IN - 18 (later perhaps)
-------------------
Thats 54

So all in all 42+34+24+54 = 154

Next Tranche FrAF - 45
UAE potential order - 60
--------------------------------------------
Thats 105

So Order Back log can be 259

In case UAE order does not happen there is a high possibility that IN order for rest 36 will go to Merignac line so

Lower end estimate is 235
Upper End estimate - 295 (including UAE order also)


Even with 2 jets a month for sake of understanding its just
30.06.2016-31.12.2016 - 11
2017 - 22
2018- 22
2019 -22
--------------------------
Thats 77 upto 2019 end versus 76 orders pending based on domestic and exports as per presentation
One positive thing is Egypt will announce follow on within next 15 months
Qatar also before 2019 end

That leaves a good number of years to secure the rest.

Even without UAE the order book still looks pretty good bcz Indian order of just 36+ 24 Follow on of Egypt and Qatar keeps the Merignac line running for 60/22 = 2 years and 9 months.

@Picdelamirand-oil @BON PLAN @randomradio @Taygibay

I forgot to add

Roughly google translate...(feel free to provide better interpretation)

Strategy

• sell the Rafale to India and continue efforts to other prospects,
  
  
• FALCON sell the entire range because , beyond the issue of competitiveness , we believe in the business aviation market
• ensure the development of FALCON 5X and prepare , despite the difficult context, the launch of a new FALCON program
  
  
• get that France is positioned more precisely (preparation of Military Planning Act 2020 to 2025 ) on the future of the Rafale and drones
  
  
• be at the forefront of technology including the mastery of suborbital flight and remain a leading player of pyrotechnics

The first point is clear cut strategy pointing to MII as well as Indian Navy order

 

[randomradio]

The report has one small error. The computation he has based on 66 is actually 76 as of 30.06.2016 and is taken from the press release
View attachment 320000

As you see break up is
exports - 42 -( Egypt 18+ Qatar 24)
domestic - 34
About Export orders
View attachment 320002

About domestic confirmation was given in the same analysis
View attachment 320001

So if i consider the follow on potential orders then
Egypt 12
Qatar 12
-----------------
Thats 24

Indian order
IAF -36
IN - 18 (later perhaps)
-------------------
Thats 54

So all in all 42+34+24+54 = 154

Next Tranche FrAF - 45
UAE potential order - 60
--------------------------------------------
Thats 105

So Order Back log can be 259

In case UAE order does not happen there is a high possibility that IN order for rest 36 will go to Merignac line so

Lower end estimate is 235
Upper End estimate - 295 (including UAE order also)


Even with 2 jets a month for sake of understanding its just
30.06.2016-31.12.2016 - 11
2017 - 22
2018- 22
2019 -22
--------------------------
Thats 77 upto 2019 end versus 76 orders pending based on domestic and exports as per presentation
One positive thing is Egypt will announce follow on within next 15 months
Qatar also before 2019 end

That leaves a good number of years to secure the rest.

Even without UAE the order book still looks pretty good bcz Indian order of just 36+ 24 Follow on of Egypt and Qatar keeps the Merignac line running for 60/22 = 2 years and 9 months.

@Picdelamirand-oil @BON PLAN @randomradio @Taygibay

66 is the number of jets manufactured from 2014-19, without changes in production because Dassault will run the line based on an order for 11 jets a year. Out of that order for 66, France had divided that into 26 for themselves and 40 for export. That number was met with Qatar and Egypt.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

66 is the number of jets manufactured from 2014-19, without changes in production because Dassault will run the line based on an order for 11 jets a year. Out of that order for 66, France had divided that into 26 for themselves and 40 for export. That number was met with Qatar and Egypt.

Yes i realised it now .. but good, i considered based on 22/year .. still I feel even without French 5th tranche and UAE order they are pretty much booked with just Indian order of 36 and follow on orders of Egypt+Qatar till 2021-22 types.

 

[randomradio]

Yes i realised it now .. but good, i considered based on 22/year .. still I feel even without French 5th tranche and UAE order they are pretty much booked with just Indian order of 36 and follow on orders of Egypt+Qatar till 2021-22 types.

That was my point all along. Trappier is making political noise. They make long term decisions, they don't make decisions based on a few months worth of delays. If they don't keep production numbers high, they will only get swamped with orders later on and won't be able to take up new orders until the previous ones are met. That's not a good place to be.

 

[Athen]

And he's the best thing that's happened to the Rafale for India. Numbers have gone from 126 to potentially 180 for IAF, and possibly 54-72 for the IN. His work.

source??

 

[[Bregs]]

And he's the best thing that's happened to the Rafale for India. Numbers have gone from 126 to potentially 180 for IAF, and possibly 54-72 for the IN. His work.

are bhai pehle 36 ki deal ho jaye fir 180 ke baare main sochna

 

[randomradio]

source??

Parrikar himself, military sources and journos from other forums for now.

are bhai pehle 36 ki deal ho jaye fir 180 ke baare main sochna

It's cascading. 36 Rafales will open up MII. MII opens up 90. And you know IAF won't stop at just 90. Then Parrikar has asked IN to make a study for 54 jets. It is possible that 18 will be flyaway from France for use on Vikrant. And you know IN will also not stop at just 18.

So if 36 jets are bought, that number will balloon to 200-300 between IAF and IN.

 

[[Bregs]]

Parrikar himself, military sources and journos from other forums for now.



It's cascading. 36 Rafales will open up MII. MII opens up 90. And you know IAF won't stop at just 90.

Then Parrikar has asked IN to make a study for 54 jets. It is possible that 18 will be flyaway from France for use on Vikrant. And you know IN will also not stop at just 18.

So if 36 jets are bought, that number will balloon to 200-300 between IAF and IN.

what you are saying is rational thought but when have IAF and defence minstry followed deals rationally with speed ?

 

[randomradio]

what you are saying is rational thought but when have IAF and defence minstry followed deals rationally with speed ?

Once MII program starts, IAF will decide the numbers, not MoD. MoD will step in only if overall number of jets have to be cut due to budget issues, and this will apply to all jets, not just Rafale.