Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[randomradio]

I dont see Gripen making a very comprehensive comeback... Especially if consider a tier in between LCA and Rafales

USA SH18 is already pretty much mediocre and MMRCA evaluations backed that claim..

The purpose of the second MRCA is for a cheap aircraft. It doesn't matter if the aircraft is good or not compared to Rafale, as long as it's cheap. Modi is quite concerned about the Make in India programs for the aerospace industry.

Anyway, two MRCA programs are affordable as long as the timeframe is managed very well along with the financing of the programs. From today until 2027, IAF has a minimum of $100B in capex. And previous liabilities are decreasing.

IAF is going to get priority funding. Of course, there is a chance the second line will never happen, but then, we won't reach 42 squadrons by 2027 either.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

You make a very solid point about the rate of production/induction being insufficent for the level of phasing out the IAF will be doing and simply has to do in the next decade. However, I do not beleive the solution is to adopt the long term logistical nightmare that is a second MMRCA type procurement. There are no easy solutions as the Indian LCA and Rafale production lines' capcacities will be limited until around 2022. The best solution would be another LCA production line with the private sector ASAP doubling HAL's 16 LCA/year rate.

And you rightly point out the urgency required but, looking at how protracted this Rafale buy has been, do you really think a second MMRCA induction would be signed for in any timely manner? I don't. That would be another long process and the first fighter from that effort could be in IAF service in 6 years- at best.


Make no mistake bro, the IAF getting the IAF would kill the LCA overnight and there goes India's future domestic aviation industry. It's just not going to happen.

There is a way bro.. If we commit say a much bigger number like 288 and production like an example
in Indian MII line 14-16 birds a year for entire 208 jets 13 squadrons in 13 years
and from Merignac line 14-16 birds a year.. for 5 years 80 jets 5 squadrons

2 squadrons a year for 5 years straight..

You get 288 jets there

But for practical purpose we need then to convince our whole country who will up in arms primarily due to cost and secondly, getting 288 jets means a clear cut strategy need which needs deep economical support too..

A better way is to tell Mukesh Ambani .. call up Marcel Dassault buy a stake. heck buy whole Dassault only and then lets do this number again..

But yes we cant reach 475 that way

 

[randomradio]

You make a very solid point about the rate of production/induction being insufficent for the level of phasing out the IAF will be doing and simply has to do in the next decade. However, I do not beleive the solution is to adopt the long term logistical nightmare that is a second MMRCA type procurement. There are no easy solutions as the Indian LCA and Rafale production lines' capcacities will be limited until around 2022. The best solution would be another LCA production line with the private sector ASAP doubling HAL's 16 LCA/year rate.

It is not yet known if IAF has shown interest in the LCA Mk2. A second production line within the private sector is not possible today, it is too big a hurdle to cross for them. A second line can be done for Mk2 though, but like I said, it depends on the IAF. Also, the Mk2 timeframe is too optimistic.

Otoh, the creator of the LSA says he can make available 54 jets a year.

And you rightly point out the urgency required but, looking at how protracted this Rafale buy has been, do you really think a second MMRCA induction would be signed for in any timely manner? I don't. That would be another long process and the first fighter from that effort could be in IAF service in 6 years- at best.

No, the companies in question, like Dassault, will have executive powers over the production. It won't be under HAL. So such contracts can be signed in 2 years or less. Especially if Modi stays in power for the next 3 years.

MMRCA was primarily delayed because of HAL. The new Rafale deal is almost done in just 1 year, including modified configuration like uprated engine. The Make in India component will start after IN makes a commitment for Rafale-M.

Make no mistake bro, the IAF getting the IAF would kill the LCA overnight and there goes India's future domestic aviation industry. It's just not going to happen.

At least 200 LCAs are required even with Rafale and second MRCA.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

The purpose of the second MRCA is for a cheap aircraft. It doesn't matter if the aircraft is good or not compared to Rafale, as long as it's cheap. Modi is quite concerned about the Make in India programs for the aerospace industry.

Anyway, two MRCA programs are affordable as long as the timeframe is managed very well along with the financing of the programs. From today until 2027, IAF has a minimum of $100B in capex. And previous liabilities are decreasing.

IAF is going to get priority funding. Of course, there is a chance the second line will never happen, but then, we won't reach 42 squadrons by 2027 either.

TBH since we have lost last 15 years, we will ideally see a crippled IAF for some time with almost obsolete junk jets with us as part of our squadron strength.. Yes you are correct capex is there.. But then again can Saab be trusted? After all its a integrator with limited technology of its own..

Besides 42 sqd number is practically not possible for 2027 unless we do dynamic things..

For example only USA MIC can give us 30 jets a year but then depending on US jets is as good as committing suicide now..especially if its frontline USA jets..

Thus a cheaper Indian aircraft if its possible like you said Light Stealth Aircraft should be encouraged.. Israeli folks just said based on lavi they want us to model AMCA.. may be used Israel only for the Stealth Aircraft and create a product where unit cost is under USD40-45 Mn.. a bit higher than LCA USD 30.. It solves our purpose much better,,

 

[randomradio]

But for practical purpose we need then to convince our whole country who will up in arms primarily due to cost

The Rafales are not expensive. The MMRCA deal came at less than $120M for each Rafale. This new deal will bring the total cost to less than $100M. The LCC cost of the Rafale was $300M.

The total production cost of 126 Rafales in MMRCA was $15B, not including the HAL's cost increase. If we assume Dassault will sell us the Indian Rafales at the new rate, then 120 Rafales over the next 10 years will cost only $12B. Misc expenses will be extra, like bases.

According to Picdel, the unit cost of a Rafale in the new deal is Euro 70M.

The issue is people are stupid. They think we have to pay the 40 year cost of $300M immediately. F-35 is facing the same stupid belief that the govt has to pay more than $1T right away, even though the cost of the existing fleet over 40 years is far more expensive, two or three times more.

But then again can Saab be trusted? After all its a integrator with limited technology of its own..

It depends on how much ToT GE will be able to provide.

For example only USA MIC can give us 30 jets a year but then depending on US jets is as good as committing suicide now..especially if its frontline USA jets..

France can too. If we order from France as well as the Indian line, we can easily order 30+ Rafales a year. If the Indian line is built the same as the French line, then we should be able to produce 36 Rafales a year in India.

Thus a cheaper Indian aircraft if its possible like you said Light Stealth Aircraft should be encouraged.. Israeli folks just said based on lavi they want us to model AMCA.. may be used Israel only for the Stealth Aircraft and create a product where unit cost is under USD40-45 Mn.. a bit higher than LCA USD 30.. It solves our purpose much better,,

AMCA will cost $200M.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

The Rafales are not expensive. The MMRCA deal came at less than $120M for each Rafale. This new deal will bring the total cost to less than $100M. The LCC cost of the Rafale was $300M.

The total production cost of 126 Rafales in MMRCA was $15B, not including the HAL's cost increase. If we assume Dassault will sell us the Indian Rafales at the new rate, then 120 Rafales over the next 10 years will cost only $12B. Misc expenses will be extra, like bases.

According to Picdel, the unit cost of a Rafale in the new deal is Euro 70M.

The issue is people are stupid. They think we have to pay the 40 year cost of $300M immediately. F-35 is facing the same stupid belief that the govt has to pay more than $1T right away, even though the cost of the existing fleet over 40 years is far more expensive, two or three times more.

Thats in line with what my source said about Euro 100 Mn loaded with weapons.. and India is looking making the whole jet with a median cost of Rs 540 crs to 560 crs for a large 200 jet order..based on economies of scale and localisation plus benefit of cheap human capital cost

The issue is even more biasedness and unsubstantiated view of not understanding the package points
Example
Package part 1 jets+ weapons euro 3.6Bn
Package part 2 customization
Package part 3 all support+ training+ infra+ others

If we add all it up and say get a deal for Euro 7.3 bn ( presently euro 8Bn and negotiating for Euro 700 odd mn more lowering) then people blindly divide it by 36 and quote Euro 203 mn or USD 220 mn..
Now that's the level of our defence analysts and reporters.. Then what can we do..
The jets and weapons are still just Euro 100 mn but then it get hidden among the whole hocus pocus of USD 220 mn or even bigger figure..

Nobody says like some post back CPFH is USD 10k and for MKI may be double.. No body says about engine issues.. Not about availability.. Not about rbe 2 spectra and what not.. The list is long.. All they say is Rafale is white elephant..

And we always said look at the heading to understand what's the cost in reality..

The acquisition of rafales over a good time will be beneficial no doubt.. And cost will not be the issue when we see its utility and lower operational cost n convenience

 

[randomradio]

Courtesy Picdel

It's Euro 2.5B for 36 Rafales.
Euro 1B for 10 years spares.
Euro 1.4B for 1 base.
Euro 1B for weapons.

Total = Euro 5.9B for MMRCA configured Rafale.

Customization costs up to Euro 2B. So total is Euro 7.9B. Total 9.3B for two bases. And so on.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

$200M.

Yes that's what SJha said.... I am saying about Israeli tie up for light stealth aircraft not for AMCA..

AMCA I want tech Tie up with france only as I believe if we can add Rafale tech plus FGFA tech that combination of pick and choose the best of what available and throw in some Israeli stuff in between can very well give a potent combination..

 

[randomradio]

I am saying about Israeli tie up for light stealth aircraft not for AMCA..

The creator of LSA has promoted his design to the Israelis and they are interested. We are yet to get word of its future.

AMCA I want tech Tie up with france only as I believe if we can add Rafale tech plus FGFA tech that combination of pick and choose the best of what available and throw in some Israeli stuff in between can very well give a potent combination..

AMCA will be indigenous as much as possible. We are already taking a risk with the imported engine. Israeli inputs will be minimum since we have already benefited a lot through the LCA program with them. We may need consultancy assistance though, I'm sure France or the new MRCA company may offer it. The Israelis don't have the expertise.

 

[randomradio]

Is IDF down for permanent now? I'm gonna miss vstol uncle.

No idea. Maybe @SpArK can help? Anyway, welcome to the forum.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Courtesy Picdel

It's Euro 2.5B for 36 Rafales.
Euro 1B for 10 years spares.
Euro 1.4B for 1 base.
Euro 1B for weapons.

Total = Euro 5.9B for MMRCA configured Rafale.

Customization costs up to Euro 2B. So total is Euro 7.9B. Total 9.3B for two bases. And so on.

Nice good to hear that number so jets + weapons is euro 3.5 bn and my source said euro 3.6
Ya the spare 1bn is based on 5% consumption n Of flyaway price which India is disputing..
The Initial years won't see such high % of spare usage and this advocates a 500mn type price for 10 years or using 1bn for 15 years..

The base Infrastructure price is being looked to be brought down ..

The customization we reduced harpoon request and used exocet now.. That confirmation came in air and cosmos magazine which I posted the clip here..

We re trying to now narrow it down from below 60k crs to closer to 56k crores.. That's the target and seems achievable..

Oh but the new engine will take 28-30 months so our jets can come in between 3 to 5.5 years

 

[Abingdonboy]

There is a way bro.. If we commit say a much bigger number like 288 and production like an example
in Indian MII line 14-16 birds a year for entire 208 jets 13 squadrons in 13 years
and from Merignac line 14-16 birds a year.. for 5 years 80 jets 5 squadrons

It is not yet known if IAF has shown interest in the LCA Mk2

No, the companies in question, like Dassault, will have executive powers over the production. It won't be under HAL. So such contracts can be signed in 2 years or less. Especially if Modi stays in power for the next 3 years.

2 years for a deal as complex as 126 jets to be made in India? No way sir. These things are very very complex and will have so many issues to be addressed that it would take 3 years minumum. However this is without factoring in the selection process. I'm assuming in this "second MMRCA" that multiple candidates would be considered and thus there would have to be an entirely new set of technical evaluations done by the IAF both in India and abroad. And then the cost negotiations will begin with the MoD and then the contract will be signed and then the delivery period will take over- it's going to be a very lenghty process:

Selection process (2 years- using MMRCA as a base)
Contract negotiations- 2-3 years
Delivery period- 3 years

That's 7-8 years for the FIRST bird to enter Indian service, so if this process was started tommorw it would not be before 2023 the IAF got its first "second MMRCA" but we all know that the MoD/IAF won't kick off any "second MMRCA" for at least a year (when the Dassualt/Rafale MII part is all signed up) so we are looking at 2025-6 as the earliest the FIRST "second MMRCA" can be in service and this is with the most optimistic timelines. It just doesn't seem logical on any front-cost, speed of induction, sense, long term ownership, ease etc etc

MMRCA was primarily delayed because of HAL. The new Rafale deal is almost done in just 1 year, including modified configuration like uprated engine. The Make in India component will start after IN makes a commitment for Rafale-M.

I don't think it's fair to blame HAL entiely, there was also quite a lot of time lost because of divergent views on offset obligations, workshare etc etc

Besides 42 sqd number is practically not possible for 2027 unless we do dynamic things..

And even that figure is deemed too low. According to the Standing Parliamentry commitee on defence the figure should be 45 SQNs by 2025 to meet a combined Pak/China threat. Fat chance of getting anywhere close to that unless something really innovative is thought up.

Thus a cheaper Indian aircraft if its possible like you said Light Stealth Aircraft should be encouraged.. Israeli folks just said based on lavi they want us to model AMCA.. may be used Israel only for the Stealth Aircraft and create a product where unit cost is under USD40-45 Mn.. a bit higher than LCA USD 30.. It solves our purpose much better,,

No new projects will be in service quick enough to address the SQN depletion bro.

The Rafales are not expensive. The MMRCA deal came at less than $120M for each Rafale. This new deal will bring the total cost to less than $100M. The LCC cost of the Rafale was $300M.

The total production cost of 126 Rafales in MMRCA was $15B, not including the HAL's cost increase. If we assume Dassault will sell us the Indian Rafales at the new rate, then 120 Rafales over the next 10 years will cost only $12B. Misc expenses will be extra, like bases.

According to Picdel, the unit cost of a Rafale in the new deal is Euro 70M.

The issue is people are stupid. They think we have to pay the 40 year cost of $300M immediately. F-35 is facing the same stupid belief that the govt has to pay more than $1T right away, even though the cost of the existing fleet over 40 years is far more expensive, two or three times more.

Superbly stated which shows that there is little need for a second MMRCA- at least not on cost grounds. The only reason to go for a second MMRCA is for speed of induction and I'm sure Dassualt (and its Indian partner) would come up with some plan to capture that mulit-billion USD business and not lose it to a competitor.

 

[randomradio]

Hopefully he finds his way here. No way of finding his email?

The Frenchies are lost in time too, BMD, AverageAmerican and all the other fellow Kulcha Warriors...*sheds a tear*

I don't have their mails. Maybe @SpArK has good news.

Selection process (2 years- using MMRCA as a base)
Contract negotiations- 2-3 years
Delivery period- 3 years

The selection process is already complete. It will be based on MMRCA. The companies will be asked to submit bids based on MMRCA configuration. And it will be GTG, so companies can play dirty.

The contract negotiations can be done in 2 years flat. Like Rafale.

The delivery period will of course take time. That's why I said a clever process will take care of most of the problems between Rafale and the new MRCA. but both Rafale and MRCA are expected to deliver only after 2020, probably a year or two earlier for the Rafale.

And IAF isn't the only customer. You are forgetting the 54 Rafales the IN wants. So that will have to be taken into consideration. There is also the possibility of more Mig-29Ks.

Superbly stated which shows that there is little need for a second MMRCA- at least not on cost grounds. The only reason to go for a second MMRCA is for speed of induction and I'm sure Dassualt (and its Indian partner) would come up with some plan to capture that mulit-billion USD business and not lose it to a competitor.

Dassault will aim for that. Ultimately, it depends on costs.

 

[Abingdonboy]

The selection process is already complete. It will be based on MMRCA. The companies will be asked to submit bids based on MMRCA configuration. And it will be GTG, so companies can play dirty.

This doesn't make much sense to me as only 2 contenders were found to meet the IAF's selection criteria- the EF and Rafale. So unless the IAF has changed its mind on its 600+ point selection criteria how can the MMRCA configuration be offered? If anything the most compelling argument could be made for the "Silent" Hornet, the Super Hornet simply failed to impress the IAF.

The delivery period will of course take time. That's why I said a clever process will take care of most of the problems between Rafale and the new MRCA. but both Rafale and MRCA are expected to deliver only after 2020, probably a year or two earlier for the Rafale.

The Rafales being ordered off the shelf from France will be in service from 2019 (perhaps earlier if the GoI makes a purchase ASAP and takes advantadge of the ramped up production).

The time line for localised production of Rafales in India remains a big question mark for me.

And IAF isn't the only customer. You are forgetting the 54 Rafales the IN wants. So that will have to be taken into consideration. There is also the possibility of more Mig-29Ks.

The IN's long term plan is for far more than 54 jets as they will have the IAC-2 to cater for and likely a sister ship of the IAC-1 class and almost certainly more of the IAC-2 class from 2035 onwards. And thus is makes sense to settle upon a single platform. The MiG-29K cannot be considered as it is not able to operate using a catapult that will be found on the IAC-2 class, that leaves the Rafale-M, F-18SH and F-35C (discounting the Sea Gripen outright), of these only the Rafale-M has promised to be able to operate from STOBAR carriers also and remember the IN may still have 1 STOBAR carrier to provide an air wing to (IAC-1's sister ship). So, the market for the Rafale (IAF+IN+SFC) is huge, Dassualt just need to get their marketing and pricing in check.

 

[randomradio]

This doesn't make much sense to me as only 2 contenders were found to meet the IAF's selection criteria- the EF and Rafale. So unless the IAF has changed its mind on its 600+ point selection criteria how can the MMRCA configuration be offered? If anything the most compelling argument could be made for the "Silent" Hornet, the Super Hornet simply failed to impress the IAF.

Neither Gripen nor SH met the MMRCA criteria. So based on whatever base technologies they offer, the cheaper guy wins I suppose.

I would say Gripen is more advanced in terms of technologies offered. So it has a good chance.

The Rafales being ordered off the shelf from France will be in service from 2019 (perhaps earlier if the GoI makes a purchase ASAP and takes advantadge of the ramped up production).

The French have too many commitments.

The time line for localised production of Rafales in India remains a big question mark for me.

Let's wait for the official announcement for timeline.

The IN's long term plan is for far more than 54 jets as they will have the IAC-2 to cater for and likely a sister ship of the IAC-1 class and almost certainly more of the IAC-2 class from 2035 onwards. And thus is makes sense to settle upon a single platform. The MiG-29K cannot be considered as it is not able to operate using a catapult that will be found on the IAC-2 class, that leaves the Rafale-M, F-18SH and F-35C (discounting the Sea Gripen outright), of these only the Rafale-M has promised to be able to operate from STOBAR carriers also and remember the IN may still have 1 STOBAR carrier to provide an air wing to (IAC-1's sister ship). So, the market for the Rafale (IAF+IN+SFC) is huge, Dassualt just need to get their marketing and pricing in check.

IN's only real options are Rafale and F-35. The Ks may only be stop gap, like one or two squadrons at the most. They need more aircraft for IAC-1.