Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[PARIKRAMA]

Here are recent datas.

View attachment 293795

If i'm not wrong,it's just the current funds that cannot permit a higher disponibility rate....
For the helicopter fleet,it's even worse.

Thank you my good Sir... thats pretty good data.. and authentic one which we cannot dispute..

For the availability rate we have two rate, one is technical and the other is operational. From an operational point of view if a rafale reach 250 hours, it is not operationally available so it decrease the operational availability, also for Rafale M the 10 Rafale which are at standard 1 and in the process to be modified are not available. So this operational availability doesn't reflect the true Rafale availability but the way the French use it. The technical availability is more interesting and is of 97%. But it will take time for me to give you a link!

Excellent... No probs there is a limit for fresh new signups i think for 29 odd posts..

 

[randomradio]

It's actually a minimum of 35 posts for a new joinee. I had already posted 6. So I gave my count.

 

[Vergennes]

Thank you my good Sir... thats pretty good data.. and authentic one which we cannot dispute..



Excellent... No probs there is a limit for fresh new signups i think for 29 odd posts..

If you want to know,in our current overseas operations,the available rate of the deployed Mirage2000s is about 90% and Rafale,nearly 97%.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Here are recent datas.

View attachment 293795

If i'm not wrong,it's just the current funds that cannot permit a higher disponibility rate....
For the helicopter fleet,it's even worse.

So based on this if i use the same above logic as given by @Picdelamirand-oil then
Total MRO cost: 226.40 millions
Aircraft : 93
Annual cost per aircraft : 2,434 millions
Cost per flight hour (250 hours): 9737 USD

earlier its USD 9484 CPFH 2012 data

So compared to janes which had

This implies 40.98% saving on USD 16500 data

This is substantially good news and a good data point

@Abingdonboy @Taygibay @MilSpec

 

[randomradio]

@Oscar @WebMaster

Dunno who to say this to, but @Picdelamirand-oil deserves the professional status. He's not part of the military but he's been sitting on French nukes and shooting lasers for years. Knows as much as NATO generals and more.

@halloweene can confirm.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

It's actually a minimum of 35 posts for a new joinee. I had already posted 6. So I gave my count.

thats seems to be new nowadays.. was not there when i joined.. may be i dont remember that part as its over 2 years back..

 

[Abingdonboy]

So based on this if i use the same above logic as given by @Picdelamirand-oil then
Total MRO cost: 226.40 millions
Aircraft : 93
Annual cost per aircraft : 2,434 millions
Cost per flight hour (250 hours): 9737 USD

earlier its USD 9484 CPFH 2012 data

So compared to janes which had

This implies 40.98% saving on USD 16500 data

This is substantially good news and a good data point

@Abingdonboy @Taygibay @MilSpec

Wow, <$10,000 is mind-blowing to me. Maybe the true figure is a bit higher if they do closer to 220-230 hours?


Compare it to the Su-30

If you want to know,in our current overseas operations,the available rate of the deployed Mirage2000s is about 90% and Rafale,nearly 97%.

97%

 

[randomradio]

Compare it to the Su-30

The French prices cannot be compared to Indian prices. It depends on what the contract will cover once the Rafales start production in India. Volumes matter too. If the Indian production program covers Middle East orders, then it is possible the final costs would be significantly lower.

97%

Our Rafale fleet would be as big or bigger than ADLA. And IAF would expect all Rafales to remain operational at any given time, so the availability figure would be lower than in France. But more than 90% is possible if spares are sourced from Indian companies.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Our Rafale fleet would be as big or bigger than ADLA. And IAF would expect all Rafales to remain operational at any given time, so the availability figure would be lower than in France. But more than 90% is possible if spares are sourced from Indian companies.

Welcome to the club Rafale.. You are another member to think magic number 200+ is possible.. Members are presently very very limited.. Owing to extreme measures of "high cost" named virus infecting the whole Indian press... and others believing MKI is the solution to everything..

@Abingdonboy @Vauban We got a new club member

@Taygibay : Our strength is increasing day by day


@randomradio @Picdelamirand-oil : Pls do go to member introduction thread and post .. Webby and mods keep looking there..
New Introductions | Page 30

 

[Abingdonboy]

The French prices cannot be compared to Indian prices. It depends on what the contract will cover once the Rafales start production in India. Volumes matter too. If the Indian production program covers Middle East orders, then it is possible the final costs would be significantly lower.

Of course the figures for India will differ as there are so many variables that go into this aggregated flght hour cost figure. If India wants to get anythig close to this figure it will need a (very) large fleet and localised spares production so as to take advantadge of economies of scale and the lower costs of production in India.

This is why I have been saying all along- a fleet of 36-54 makes absolutely no sense doing so would actually a form of self harm.

Our Rafale fleet would be as big or bigger than ADLA. And IAF would expect all Rafales to remain operational at any given time, so the availability figure would be lower than in France. But more than 90% is possible if spares are sourced from Indian companies.

I have no doubt that such availability will not be possible for an export customer but it is still spectacuarly impressive that any operator anywhere in the world is able to get such rates with a twin engined complex fighter. Furthermore, it adds some credance to the IAF's demand that their Rafale fleet acheive 90% availability- where I thought the IAF was asking a bit much but clearly not.

 

[randomradio]

Welcome to the club Rafale.. You are another member to think magic number 200+ is possible.. Members are presently very very limited.. Owing to extreme measures of "high cost" named virus infecting the whole Indian press... and others believing MKI is the solution to everything..

It's not just the 200 Rafales, but a new MRCA program is planned for at least 126 jets.

IAF needs to replace a total of 500-550 jets by 2027. Most of those will be covered by extra MKIs, 126 LCAs, minimum 180 Rafales and 126 new MRCA.

I think Super Hornet or Gripen-E/F will win. The main idea behind the second MRCA is cheap costs. Gripen is cheap owing to its design while Boeing may move their SH line in India to compete with Gripen. The SH bid was cheaper than Gripen by 20M during MMRCA. F-16 has no chance, Mig-35 also.

Another option is the LSA program, or Light Stealth Aircraft which will be an indigenous aircraft made in India.

Indian Navy needs 150 jets by 2027. So this will be a separate order. US Navy is pushing the F-35C for the navy as part of the carrier program. And Dassault is also competing.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Welcome to the club Rafale.

I know you say this in jest but let's not paint ourselves as irrational "fanboys". It is not some irrational emotional attatchment to the Rafale that has got us in this "club" but cold hard logic and reasoning and considering the IAF's long term interest. In fact, anyone who follows this approach seems to get to the same conclusions:

European Powers Face Off for Gulf Fighters, Trainers

UAE in final stages of talks to buy Rafale jets| Reuters

India picks French jet over Eurofighter in $10bn deal - BBC News

The Eurofighter has lost all its games against the Rafale



Those who keep harping the Gripen, MiG-35 or F-18 can be categorised as

Owing to extreme measures of "high cost" named virus infecting the whole Indian press... and others believing MKI is the solution to everything..

Call it what it is bro, it isn't "extreme"- it is intentionally misleading.

I think Super Hornet or Gripen-E/F will win. The main idea behind the second MRCA is cheap costs. Gripen is cheap owing to its design while Boeing may move their SH line in India to compete with Gripen. The SH bid was cheaper than Gripen by 20M during MMRCA. F-16 has no chance, Mig-35 also.

No way is the IAF inducting yet another MMRCA to operate alongside the Rafale, this is simply unthinkable. Once the Rafale production line is set up in India follow on orders will be placed- just like with the MKI (it has now exceeded its orginal capacity by >100% AFAIK).

 

[randomradio]

No way is the IAF inducting yet another MMRCA to operate alongside the Rafale, this is simply unthinkable. Once the Rafale production line is set up in India follow on orders will be placed- just like with the MKI (it has now exceeded its orginal capacity by >100% AFAIK).

I don't like it either, but this is what's planned.

We need to replace 250 Mig-21s, 80 Mi-27s and 8 squadrons of missing capacity by 2027. That's 475 jets minimum. Then there's talk of dumping 60 Jaguars earlier than anticipated. That's not possible with just Rafale and Tejas. IAF wants something that is not as capable as Rafale, but is cheap enough for mass production in India.

Even with 20 Rafales, 16 Mk1A and 20 Gripen a year, we won't reach the magic figure of 475 by 2027. This is not counting attrition. So you can imagine how big the requirement is.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

It's not just the 200 Rafales, but a new MRCA program is planned for at least 126 jets.

IAF needs to replace a total of 500-550 jets by 2027. Most of those will be covered by extra MKIs, 126 LCAs, minimum 180 Rafales and 126 new MRCA.

I think Super Hornet or Gripen-E/F will win. The main idea behind the second MRCA is cheap costs. Gripen is cheap owing to its design while Boeing may move their SH line in India to compete with Gripen. The SH bid was cheaper than Gripen by 20M during MMRCA. F-16 has no chance, Mig-35 also.

Another option is the LSA program, or Light Stealth Aircraft which will be an indigenous aircraft made in India.

Indian Navy needs 150 jets by 2027. So this will be a separate order. US Navy is pushing the F-35C for the navy as part of the carrier program. And Dassault is also competing.

I dont see Gripen making a very comprehensive comeback... Especially if consider a tier in between LCA and Rafales
In all practical purpose, it would be a logistical nightmare if we add another type especially when we are clear that in next 10 years surely FGFA comes in and in max 20 AMCA also comes...

Unless and untill we cap our LCA program, giving Gripen a chance would be suicidal.. Any other Indian program like Light Stealth Aircraft is still feasible owing to it being Indian and perhaps would be similarly priced as like LCA project..

We have discussed this topic about Saab with @Abingdonboy and @Taygibay .. Saab being a lead integrator and majority depending upon different economies particularly USA/Euro does not offer us much to our own benefit.. Especially if we talk about MII and our local MIC benefit in terms of a localised Supply chain.. If not rafale, its much better to have EF localised chain here as unit cost of EF may be high but UK and Germany likes the idea of shifting the chain here..

After all like Dassault the EF consortium would also benefit from lower human capital cost and in turn decreasing the export version costs of Rafale or EF.. Of Course EF is just an example..

USA SH18 is already pretty much mediocre and MMRCA evaluations backed that claim.. In fact synergistic-ally, the best choice for any production line would be the one where end users are both IAF and IN.. Such a capability is only with Dassault.. Whether its made in India line or merignac line..

F35 i said in another thread and few pages back as a dinosaur not even white elephant.. IN should resist it with everything.. Better buy now RAFALE M and later 20 years from now AMCA N..

F16s and Mig 35s i dont forsee any chance..

I know you say this in jest but let's not paint ourselves as irrational "fanboys". It is not some irrational emotional attatchment to the Rafale that has got us in this "club" but cold hard logic and reasoning and considering the IAF's long term interest. In fact, anyone who follows this approach seems to get to the same conclusions:

European Powers Face Off for Gulf Fighters, Trainers

UAE in final stages of talks to buy Rafale jets| Reuters

India picks French jet over Eurofighter in $10bn deal - BBC News

The Eurofighter has lost all its games against the Rafale



Those who keep harping the Gripen, MiG-35 or F-18 can be categorised as

Call it what it is bro, it isn't "extreme"- it is intentionally misleading.


No way is the IAF inducting yet another MMRCA to operate alongside the Rafale, this is simply unthinkable. Once the Rafale production line is set up in India follow on orders will be placed- just like with the MKI (it has now exceeded its orginal capacity by >100% AFAIK).

I know what you are saying my friend.. it just that i made a comment more with mocking sense.. You know how i had been with you defending this Rafale acquisition and trying to make people see rationally why this acquisition and MII part is so strategic in nature..

I don't like it either, but this is what's planned.

We need to replace 250 Mig-21s, 80 Mi-27s and 8 squadrons of missing capacity by 2027. That's 475 jets minimum. Then there's talk of dumping 60 Jaguars earlier than anticipated. That's not possible with just Rafale and Tejas. IAF wants something that is not as capable as Rafale, but is cheap enough for mass production in India.

Even with 20 Rafales, 16 Mk1A and 20 Gripen a year, we won't reach the magic figure of 475 by 2027. This is not counting attrition. So you can imagine how big the requirement is.

I will harp here an old point i made..
according to parliamentary committee report our pilot to fighter availability rate is 0.81... For 475 jets, if i consider all to be single seater and keep the 40 MKI additional separate, we need 475 additional pilots..

Now our task originally was that sanctioned ratio was 1.25... we are in 0.81..

Addressing 475 additional pilots for 1:1 implementation and 1.25 ratio our need is almost 600 (594 to be precise).. Without AirHQ/IAF not addressing new boots/fresh recruits undergoing training how we will meet the requirement...


Even if i assume we are retiring say 200 jets we will get 162 pilots.. 300 make it 243 pilots.. The shortage is still very very wide..

Assuming 100 Migs retired and 81 free pilots reassigned for 40 additional MKIs.. this shortage problem will keep us grounded as we dont have man for the machines..

 

[Abingdonboy]

I don't like it either, but this is what's planned.

We need to replace 250 Mig-21s, 80 Mi-27s and 8 squadrons of missing capacity by 2027. That's 475 jets minimum. Then there's talk of dumping 60 Jaguars earlier than anticipated. That's not possible with just Rafale and Tejas. IAF wants something that is not as capable as Rafale, but is cheap enough for mass production in India.

Even with 20 Rafales, 16 Mk1A and 20 Gripen a year, we won't reach the magic figure of 475 by 2027. This is not counting attrition. So you can imagine how big the requirement is.

You make a very solid point about the rate of production/induction being insufficent for the level of phasing out the IAF will be doing and simply has to do in the next decade. However, I do not beleive the solution is to adopt the long term logistical nightmare that is a second MMRCA type procurement. There are no easy solutions as the Indian LCA and Rafale production lines' capcacities will be limited until around 2022. The best solution would be another LCA production line with the private sector ASAP doubling HAL's 16 LCA/year rate.

And you rightly point out the urgency required but, looking at how protracted this Rafale buy has been, do you really think a second MMRCA induction would be signed for in any timely manner? I don't. That would be another long process and the first fighter from that effort could be in IAF service in 6 years- at best.

I dont see Gripen making a very comprehensive comeback... Especially if consider a tier in between LCA and Rafales

Make no mistake bro, the IAF getting the IAF would kill the LCA overnight and there goes India's future domestic aviation industry. It's just not going to happen.