It's not just the 200 Rafales, but a new MRCA program is planned for at least 126 jets.
IAF needs to replace a total of 500-550 jets by 2027. Most of those will be covered by extra MKIs, 126 LCAs, minimum 180 Rafales and 126 new MRCA.
I think Super Hornet or Gripen-E/F will win. The main idea behind the second MRCA is cheap costs. Gripen is cheap owing to its design while Boeing may move their SH line in India to compete with Gripen. The SH bid was cheaper than Gripen by 20M during MMRCA. F-16 has no chance, Mig-35 also.
Another option is the LSA program, or Light Stealth Aircraft which will be an indigenous aircraft made in India.
Indian Navy needs 150 jets by 2027. So this will be a separate order. US Navy is pushing the F-35C for the navy as part of the carrier program. And Dassault is also competing.
I dont see Gripen making a very comprehensive comeback... Especially if consider a tier in between LCA and Rafales
In all practical purpose, it would be a logistical nightmare if we add another type especially when we are clear that in next 10 years surely FGFA comes in and in max 20 AMCA also comes...
Unless and untill we cap our LCA program, giving Gripen a chance would be suicidal.. Any other Indian program like Light Stealth Aircraft is still feasible owing to it being Indian and perhaps would be similarly priced as like LCA project..
We have discussed this topic about Saab with
@Abingdonboy and
@Taygibay .. Saab being a lead integrator and majority depending upon different economies particularly USA/Euro does not offer us much to our own benefit.. Especially if we talk about MII and our local MIC benefit in terms of a localised Supply chain.. If not rafale, its much better to have EF localised chain here as unit cost of EF may be high but UK and Germany likes the idea of shifting the chain here..
After all like Dassault the EF consortium would also benefit from lower human capital cost and in turn decreasing the export version costs of Rafale or EF.. Of Course EF is just an example..
USA SH18 is already pretty much mediocre and MMRCA evaluations backed that claim.. In fact synergistic-ally, the best choice for any production line would be the one where end users are both IAF and IN.. Such a capability is only with Dassault.. Whether its made in India line or merignac line..
F35 i said in another thread and few pages back as a dinosaur not even white elephant.. IN should resist it with everything.. Better buy now RAFALE M and later 20 years from now AMCA N..
F16s and Mig 35s i dont forsee any chance..
I know you say this in jest but let's not paint ourselves as irrational "fanboys". It is not some irrational emotional attatchment to the Rafale that has got us in this "club" but cold hard logic and reasoning and considering the IAF's long term interest. In fact, anyone who follows this approach seems to get to the same conclusions:
European Powers Face Off for Gulf Fighters, Trainers
UAE in final stages of talks to buy Rafale jets| Reuters
India picks French jet over Eurofighter in $10bn deal - BBC News
The Eurofighter has lost all its games against the Rafale
Those who keep harping the Gripen, MiG-35 or F-18 can be categorised as
Call it what it is bro, it isn't "extreme"- it is intentionally misleading.
No way is the IAF inducting yet another MMRCA to operate alongside the Rafale, this is simply unthinkable. Once the Rafale production line is set up in India follow on orders will be placed- just like with the MKI (it has now exceeded its orginal capacity by >100% AFAIK).
I know what you are saying my friend.. it just that i made a comment more with mocking sense.. You know how i had been with you defending this Rafale acquisition and trying to make people see rationally why this acquisition and MII part is so strategic in nature..
I don't like it either, but this is what's planned.
We need to replace 250 Mig-21s, 80 Mi-27s and 8 squadrons of missing capacity by 2027. That's 475 jets minimum. Then there's talk of dumping 60 Jaguars earlier than anticipated. That's not possible with just Rafale and Tejas. IAF wants something that is not as capable as Rafale, but is cheap enough for mass production in India.
Even with 20 Rafales, 16 Mk1A and 20 Gripen a year, we won't reach the magic figure of 475 by 2027. This is not counting attrition. So you can imagine how big the requirement is.
I will harp here an old point i made..
according to parliamentary committee report our pilot to fighter availability rate is 0.81... For 475 jets, if i consider all to be single seater and keep the 40 MKI additional separate, we need 475 additional pilots..
Now our task originally was that sanctioned ratio was 1.25... we are in 0.81..
Addressing 475 additional pilots for 1:1 implementation and 1.25 ratio our need is almost 600 (594 to be precise).. Without AirHQ/IAF not addressing new boots/fresh recruits undergoing training how we will meet the requirement...
Even if i assume we are retiring say 200 jets we will get 162 pilots.. 300 make it 243 pilots.. The shortage is still very very wide..
Assuming 100 Migs retired and 81 free pilots reassigned for 40 additional MKIs.. this shortage problem will keep us grounded as we dont have man for the machines..
