Could Myanmar and Bangladesh Go To War Over the Rohingya Crisis?

[UKBengali]

I think @Zabaniyah is on point.

Fools rush in.

I think he is addressing the true etiologies of the current situation.

I was trying to explain how general BD mentality is responsible for this mess and how to remedy it.
Was my post suggesting immediate war?

 

[Avicenna]

I was trying to explain how general BD mentality is responsible for this mess and how to remedy it.
Was my post suggesting immediate war?

He was too.

Re-read his post and think about it.

He has made some EXCELLENT points.

For the most part, I should say.

 

[UKBengali]

He was too.

You are new to this forum and so have not read a lot of his post history years ago.
His mentality is the exact reason why BD has been bullied by Myanmar to take in nearly 1 million Rohingya.

 

[Avicenna]

You are new to this forum and so have not read a lot of his post history years ago.
His mentality is the exact reason why BD has been bullied by Myanmar to take in nearly 1 million Rohingya.

Actually, I have been a lurker here from way before you probably. I only recently started to participate and post.

 

[UKBengali]

Actually, I have been a lurker here from way before you probably. I only recently started to participate and post.

Which year was that from then?

 

[Avicenna]

Intermittently I should say.

I dont remember exactly if p@kist@nidefence.com was the pro-genitor of this forum, but I've been a reader since the early 2000's.

In regards to Chinese defence matters, I've been an avid follower of Hui Tong's since the mid 90's when the J-20 section just had an artists mock-up of the XXJ.

Point is, I've been around.

 

[Zabaniyah]

@Zabaniyah

How pathetic your response is.

Not as pathetic as calling your countrymen 'cowards' while claiming to be more patriotic

What good would 1 person who's has no military training make against even a rag-tag army like Myanmar? It would be a pointless waste of a life for no result.

Good thinking. But don't underestimate them.

You and your kind of mentality is the exact reason why BD is in this position now.

Perhaps.

And what were you doing this whole time if I may ask? Surely, the British-Bangladeshi community could have contributed more in Bangladesh's political arena instead of those UK-based AL men complaining about not receiving enough photo-shoots (yes it did really happen) and what not.

This is not a new issue. I wasn't even born in the 70's. So it isn't in my control. And you should be in the same predicament. They took advantage of Bangladesh's unstable political scene as well. It was a decades long calculation among those generals and Suki. And they are seeing the results now to their favor.

If BD nation wants true freedom, then it needs to spend more on armaments than it does now and be willing to use it's military to coerce a weaker nation like Myanmar.
Myanmar has 3.5 times less GDP than BD and so it should be easy to gain military superiority against them.
Unless this cowardly mentality changes, then BD is destined to remain a bullied and abused nation for eternity.

Spend more on arms? Partly. But no, that is not the main point. It is a political one.

Spending more money on arms is not going to deter...whatever it is they are doing in Rakhine. It will also make us look more predictable. And that is not in our interests. Going to war with them is not going to improve their situation. You have to understand that the Burmese are a stubborn people (it's a weakness, not a strength).

What is needed now is emergency relief such as drinking water, foods, baby foods, medicine, etc. Cases of HIV, polio and malaria have been reported in the camps. UNICEF is already supporting vaccination, but it will be a challenging job. It is high time to ask development partners to aid long-term refugee management programs.

And finally, very importantly, the Rohingyas are a voiceless people. They are tagged as 'Bengalis' and 'terrorists' even before these so-called 'clearing operations'. It is dehumanizing.

Yale University's Genocide Studies director David Simon:
“I would hesitate to say at the moment that there is a genocide; although that's mainly for lack of evidence, it's still a plausible conclusion.”

There needs to be evidence for the world to act. If there's to be justice for the Rohingyas, collecting and documenting evidence is essential.

The more the stories are heard and the evidence seen, the better. The presence of international correspondents, photographers, aid workers, etc., in Bangladesh should be desirable. In fact, authorities would do well to support and facilitate fact-finding and evidence-collecting missions. Bangladesh could also consider a targeted PR campaign to make its case to the world. Nothing can be achieved without international pressure on the Myanmar regime.

Bangladesh needs to present itself on the world stage, and it needs to present more and more evidence. It will also put India an awkward position given their interests in Bangladesh thereby nullifying China's strategy in the region.

Now, isn't that better than spending more money on arms? Otherwise, we'd be just as savage as they are.

I say the time of reckoning has come.

 

[mb444]

You sound hesitant. Why the hesitance? And yet I agree on your conclusion.

Well, maybe that is because you are the dumbest person out there(?)



Albeit a non-military aggression.

Yes, it is really true that Burmese military helicopters have trespassed our territory. This was happening during the height of all the stuff going on there. If we did shoot them down, they would have used that opportunity to justify whatever it is they are doing there.

The idea here is not to give them the opportunity to seize that initiative. It was better to summon the Burmese envoy in Dhaka and teach him some manners. That guy must be having some really bad days, I'm sure he's begging for a replacement

But next time, it may be different. The officer commanding those helicopter crews knew exactly what he was doing. But did not get the desired result.



You shouldn't fight someone who you don't know well. Especially when you don't know yourself!

This is a undoubtedly a matter of international politics. The Senate Armed Services Committee is canning plans to expand ties with the Burmese military (thank you Sen. McCain!). The UK suspended training their military officers.

China and Russia is pretty much the opposite. India...supportive yet somewhat subtle. Very subtle....Yet praising Bangladesh and claiming to be working on the Rohingya issue. Is this just to make the ruling party happy? Maybe. But I think a working relationship can happen with them in the long run.

And you say you read the dumbest thing? What world are you in? China and Russia just torpedoed us despite amicable relations on our part. And the fact that much of our weaponry are sourced from them.

Even a delegation went to China to talk to the Chinese (at their invitation). I suspect they were laughed at.

Small world...



Full of cowards while you are comfortably living in the UK. What does that make you then?



That is your personal opinion. But no, it is not a declaration of war. In fact, there is no definite proof that the Tatmaydaw committed genocide either even if there are indications of such.

If you are going to show how brave you are in front of all of us 'cowards' then go ahead.

My position is that only a weakling would be excited at the prospect of a war and jump right in. Once they realize the reality in the heat of battle, you know what happens? Regret. And then....death....a pathetic one...

And that will prove that General Hlaing had gotten his calculations correct.

I would love to play football with that general's head, you know. Really, I do. And maybe kick it all the way to China. But, there has to be a plan. When one is surrounded, one has to scheme and plot.

Look, don't waste your thoughts on playing hero. Instead, do what you can to help. We can all agree that the Burmese Junta needs to be annihilated one day. But, we need a plan to win. We cannot just jump into battle and expect things to go our way. International politics is a very hard and harsh reality.



Spot on.



Well, there are Hindus among the Rohingyas.

Bangladesh's economy isn't that big (comparatively). We don't spend much on the military because we don't go to war. We don't shoot up people just because they happen to be a bit different despite being human.

Our main problem is not our military. It was that our political parties were never united on national issues. This Rohingya issue is not a new one. What were we doing all these years? Instead, we succumbed to party politics. That is how the enemy took advantage.

Congress and BJP have very different points of view, and yet remain united on national issues. So much so, no one dares to act aggressively against India. We don't have that unity.

Hopefully, Bangladeshis will realize the reality of international politics.

You waffle boils down to let's maintain status quo..... exactly what I suppose BAL has been asked to do by Delhi that you are trumpeting here.

Yours is not a position .... it is the absence of position. You can not develop a geostrategic policy in a vacuum.

No one will take BD seriously until we define what our engagement parameters are.

I won't bother to rehash what I have said but it is my sincere hope our policy makers can see multiple moves of the game and play accourdingly and not follow your imbecilic strategy of being a bystander whilst others dictate our fate.

 

[livingdead]

Well, maybe that is because you are the dumbest person out there(?)



Albeit a non-military aggression.

Yes, it is really true that Burmese military helicopters have trespassed our territory. This was happening during the height of all the stuff going on there. If we did shoot them down, they would have used that opportunity to justify whatever it is they are doing there.

The idea here is not to give them the opportunity to seize that initiative. It was better to summon the Burmese envoy in Dhaka and teach him some manners. That guy must be having some really bad days, I'm sure he's begging for a replacement

But next time, it may be different. The officer commanding those helicopter crews knew exactly what he was doing. But did not get the desired result.



You shouldn't fight someone who you don't know well. Especially when you don't know yourself!

This is a undoubtedly a matter of international politics. The Senate Armed Services Committee is canning plans to expand ties with the Burmese military (thank you Sen. McCain!). The UK suspended training their military officers.

China and Russia is pretty much the opposite. India...supportive yet somewhat subtle. Very subtle....Yet praising Bangladesh and claiming to be working on the Rohingya issue. Is this just to make the ruling party happy? Maybe. But I think a working relationship can happen with them in the long run.

And you say you read the dumbest thing? What world are you in? China and Russia just torpedoed us despite amicable relations on our part. And the fact that much of our weaponry are sourced from them.

Even a delegation went to China to talk to the Chinese (at their invitation). I suspect they were laughed at.

Small world...



Full of cowards while you are comfortably living in the UK. What does that make you then?



That is your personal opinion. But no, it is not a declaration of war. In fact, there is no definite proof that the Tatmaydaw committed genocide either even if there are indications of such.

If you are going to show how brave you are in front of all of us 'cowards' then go ahead.

My position is that only a weakling would be excited at the prospect of a war and jump right in. Once they realize the reality in the heat of battle, you know what happens? Regret. And then....death....a pathetic one...

And that will prove that General Hlaing had gotten his calculations correct.

I would love to play football with that general's head, you know. Really, I do. And maybe kick it all the way to China. But, there has to be a plan. When one is surrounded, one has to scheme and plot.

Look, don't waste your thoughts on playing hero. Instead, do what you can to help. We can all agree that the Burmese Junta needs to be annihilated one day. But, we need a plan to win. We cannot just jump into battle and expect things to go our way. International politics is a very hard and harsh reality.



Spot on.



Well, there are Hindus among the Rohingyas.

Bangladesh's economy isn't that big (comparatively). We don't spend much on the military because we don't go to war. We don't shoot up people just because they happen to be a bit different despite being human.

Our main problem is not our military. It was that our political parties were never united on national issues. This Rohingya issue is not a new one. What were we doing all these years? Instead, we succumbed to party politics. That is how the enemy took advantage.

Congress and BJP have very different points of view, and yet remain united on national issues. So much so, no one dares to act aggressively against India. We don't have that unity.

Hopefully, Bangladeshis will realize the reality of international politics.

dude, you did not have to respond in these many words if you saw his post claiming bd army killed 600 burmese in one operation with zero casualty, typical internet expat fanboy with zero knowledge of ground reality.(we got our own share of them).
the issue is not congress and bjp are united on national issues(they are not) but bd deliberately kept a purely defensive army. I think bd civilian leadership got it right, because bd is not India. A credible offensive army will cost huge amount of money that bd cant afford. Instead she wants to use diplomatic means to get things done. BD also faces no real threat from her neighbors, therefore affording her to invest more money in welfare schemes.

 

[UKBengali]

dude, you did not have to respond in these many words if you saw his post claiming bd army killed 600 burmese in one operation with zero casualty, typical internet expat fanboy with zero knowledge of ground reality.(we got our own share of them).
the issue is not congress and bjp are united on national issues(they are not) but bd deliberately kept a purely defensive army. I think bd civilian leadership got it right, because bd is not India. A credible offensive army will cost huge amount of money that bd cant afford. Instead she wants to use diplomatic means to get things done. BD also faces no real threat from her neighbors, therefore affording her to invest more money in welfare schemes.

Indian, please refrain from commenting on BD affairs.

 

[livingdead]

Indian, please refrain from commenting on BD affairs.

why? did i stop you from commenting on non-bd matters?

 

[Zabaniyah]

You waffle boils down to let's maintain status quo..... exactly what I suppose BAL has been asked to do by Delhi that you are trumpeting here.

LOL...just LOL...

Yours is not a position .... it is the absence of position. You can not develop a geostrategic policy in a vacuum.

No one will take BD seriously until we define what our engagement parameters are.

I won't bother to rehash what I have said but it is my sincere hope our policy makers can see multiple moves of the game and play accourdingly and not follow your imbecilic strategy of being a bystander whilst others dictate our fate.

Actually, you'd be surprised for what I have done with regards to the crisis. And, I do have a strategy in mind. You just didn't bother to read.

But other than that, you did nothing other than expressing some lofty tough guy rhetoric.

dude, you did not have to respond in these many words if you saw his post claiming bd army killed 600 burmese in one operation with zero casualty, typical internet expat fanboy with zero knowledge of ground reality.(we got our own share of them).
the issue is not congress and bjp are united on national issues(they are not) but bd deliberately kept a purely defensive army. I think bd civilian leadership got it right, because bd is not India. A credible offensive army will cost huge amount of money that bd cant afford. Instead she wants to use diplomatic means to get things done. BD also faces no real threat from her neighbors, therefore affording her to invest more money in welfare schemes.

Well, I would tell them to eat a humble pie and get out there to do something worthwhile. You are living in a functional democracy and in a powerful country. Instead of complaining about who said what, use that power.

I never quite understood their love for China though. However, our inability to act on national matters is a proven fact. We are now bearing the consequences.

Make no mistake, the refugee influx is a threat to Bangladesh's security. So that makes whatever is going on in Burma a threat. It is becoming a difficult situation. We need a long term refugee management program with the support and participation of the international community. I think that is going in the correct direction, but it will be a huge challenge. Yet, there will be a question of what will ultimately happen to them?

A credible offensive will not only cost a lot of money. Even if we do mount a credible offensive unilaterally, Burma has a lot of ethnic conflicts raging there. Doing so will set off a domino effect which can impact our security and that of our neighbors. And that won't make us look good. Mustering that regional support for a stable Burma in such a scenario is critical. It will complicate matters further too. Not even the US can manage that regional support for Iraq. What on earth made them think that Bangladesh can in a country with dozens of ethnic groups? Like I said, some guys follow some very lofty ideals. Little do they understand the ground reality in Burma.

I couldn't help to think that we need to ultimately engage in militarily force one day. Those generals will never let go of their power, and we cannot do any business with a bunch of bone-headed military men at the helm in the long run. Any military engagement will need to a multinational one all for a united Burma under civilian rule where the military has no influence. Otherwise, their society will never advance and will continue to be a thorn on our side. History has proven that no society advances under military rule.

I guess time will tell.

 

[livingdead]

LOL...just LOL...



Actually, you'd be surprised for what I have done with regards to the crisis. And, I do have a strategy in mind. You just didn't bother to read.

But other than that, you did nothing other than expressing some lofty tough guy rhetoric.



Well, I would tell them to eat a humble pie and get out there to do something worthwhile. You are living in a functional democracy and in a powerful country. Instead of complaining about who said what, use that power.

I never quite understood their love for China though. However, our inability to act on national matters is a proven fact. We are now bearing the consequences.

Make no mistake, the refugee influx is a threat to Bangladesh's security. So that makes whatever is going on in Burma a threat. It is becoming a difficult situation. We need a long term refugee management program with the support and participation of the international community. I think that is going in the correct direction, but it will be a huge challenge. Yet, there will be a question of what will ultimately happen to them?

A credible offensive will not only cost a lot of money. Even if we do mount a credible offensive unilaterally, Burma has a lot of ethnic conflicts raging there. Doing so will set off a domino effect which can impact our security and that of our neighbors. And that won't make us look good. Mustering that regional support for a stable Burma in such a scenario is critical. It will complicate matters further too. Not even the US can manage that regional support for Iraq. What on earth made them think that Bangladesh can in a country with dozens of ethnic groups? Like I said, some guys follow some very lofty ideals. Little do they understand the ground reality in Burma.

I couldn't help to think that we need to ultimately engage in militarily force one day. Those generals will never let go of their power, and we cannot do any business with a bunch of bone-headed military men at the helm in the long run. Any military engagement will need to a multinational one all for a united Burma under civilian rule where the military has no influence. Otherwise, their society will never advance and will continue to be a thorn on our side. History has proven that no society advances under military rule.

I guess time will tell.

if I was civilian leader in bd i would not do it much different, is all am saying. bd is doing pretty good economically and has managed to balance relationship with all big countries effectively. bd also has some history of army takeover, so its pragmatic to keep army weak and hooked onto dollars(earned from UN deployment)... bd does need a sizable army to protect herself from either of her neighbor so maintaining force level makes sense. but giving any substantial teeth to them leads to adventurism, that can topple civilian govt.
Myanmar situation is relatively small issue for bd in grand scheme of things, and diplomatic solution by engaging with international community is correct way forward. BD should keep pressing on it.

 

[UKBengali]

Spend more on arms? Partly. But no, that is not the main point. It is a political one.

Spending more money on arms is not going to deter...whatever it is they are doing in Rakhine. It will also make us look more predictable. And that is not in our interests. Going to war with them is not going to improve their situation. You have to understand that the Burmese are a stubborn people (it's a weakness, not a strength).

Spending more on arms is just a part of a change that is required in BD strategy.

Look at it this way. Myanmar is planning to spend 2 billion US dollars on defence this year which is 3% of their GDP. BD is planning to spend 3.2 billion US dollars which is 1.25% of BD GDP. BD need not increase defence spending massively but a hike to 2% of GDP would mean that BD defence budget would be 2.5x what Myanmar spends. Assuming this increase is phased in over 5 years then it should not massively impact other areas like education, health and infrastructure that are also important. My point is that unless Myanmar goes back to eating arms, it cannot hope to come close to matching even a modest increase in defence spening by BD.

BD politics needs to be reorietanted to see both Myanmar and India as major threats to BD wellbeing. While not being overtly hostile to India, BD needs to maintain relations at a more distant level that it does now. India has an interest in a subservient BD.

Finally China should be used for infrastructure loans, weapons imports and joint development but BD needs to understand that in certain key areas like Myanmar, it may not necessarily side with BD.

What is needed now is emergency relief such as drinking water, foods, baby foods, medicine, etc. Cases of HIV, polio and malaria have been reported in the camps. UNICEF is already supporting vaccination, but it will be a challenging job. It is high time to ask development partners to aid long-term refugee management programs.

Agreed on this point.

And finally, very importantly, the Rohingyas are a voiceless people. They are tagged as 'Bengalis' and 'terrorists' even before these so-called 'clearing operations'. It is dehumanizing.

Yale University's Genocide Studies director David Simon:
“I would hesitate to say at the moment that there is a genocide; although that's mainly for lack of evidence, it's still a plausible conclusion.”

There needs to be evidence for the world to act. If there's to be justice for the Rohingyas, collecting and documenting evidence is essential.

The more the stories are heard and the evidence seen, the better. The presence of international correspondents, photographers, aid workers, etc., in Bangladesh should be desirable. In fact, authorities would do well to support and facilitate fact-finding and evidence-collecting missions. Bangladesh could also consider a targeted PR campaign to make its case to the world. Nothing can be achieved without international pressure on the Myanmar regime.

Bangladesh needs to present itself on the world stage, and it needs to present more and more evidence. It will also put India an awkward position given their interests in Bangladesh thereby nullifying China's strategy in the region.

Disagree that BD needs to wait for the world. There is no strategic interest for large powers like the US and EU to act in Myanmar. BD needs to increase it's military capability, make common cause with key powerful Muslim countries like Turkey and Iran, and hit the Myanmarese hard with full force as soon as it can. Diplomacy will not work with inherently racist and anti-Muslim savages from across the border.

Now, isn't that better than spending more money on arms? Otherwise, we'd be just as savage as they are.

That is not right as BD will use miltary force to protect a defenceless civilian population rather than kill and raping them.

if I was civilian leader in bd i would not do it much different, is all am saying. bd is doing pretty good economically and has managed to balance relationship with all big countries effectively. bd also has some history of army takeover, so its pragmatic to keep army weak and hooked onto dollars(earned from UN deployment)... bd does need a sizable army to protect herself from either of her neighbor so maintaining force level makes sense. but giving any substantial teeth to them leads to adventurism, that can topple civilian govt.
Myanmar situation is relatively small issue for bd in grand scheme of things, and diplomatic solution by engaging with international community is correct way forward. BD should keep pressing on it.

No it has not as both India and China have sided with Myanmar in this issue.
BD has been shown to be completely devoid of any powerful allies. Total and utter failure of BD foreign policy is on show now.

 

[livingdead]

Spending more on arms is just a part of a change that is required in BD strategy.

Look at it this way. Myanmar is planning to spend 2 billion US dollars on defence this year which is 3% of their GDP. BD is planning to spend 3.2 billion US dollars which is 1.25% of BD GDP. BD need not increase defence spending massively but a hike to 2% of GDP would mean that BD defence budget would be 2.5x what Myanmar spends. Assuming this increase is phased in over 5 years then it should not massively impact other areas like education, health and infrastructure that are also important. My point is that unless Myanmar goes back to eating arms, it cannot hope to come close to matching even a modest increase in defence spening by BD.

BD politics needs to be reorietanted to see both Myanmar and India as major threats to BD wellbeing. While not being overtly hostile to India, BD needs to maintain relations at a more distant level that it does now. India has an interest in a subservient BD.

Finally China should be used for infrastructure loans, weapons imports and joint development but BD needs to understand that in certain key areas like Myanmar, it may not necessarily side with BD.



Agreed on this point.



Disagree that BD needs to wait for the world. There is no strategic interest for large powers like the US and EU to act in Myanmar. BD needs to increase it's military capability, make common cause with key powerful Muslim countries like Turkey and Iran, and hit the Myanmarese hard with full force as soon as it can. Diplomacy will not work with inherently racist and anti-Muslim savages from across the border.



That is not right as BD will use miltary force to protect a defenceless civilian population rather than kill and raping them.



No it has not as both India and China have sided with Myanmar in this issue.
BD has been shown to be completely devoid of any powerful allies. Total and utter failure of BD foriegn policy
is on show now.

china, closest ally of pakistan sat it out when kargil happened, how do you rate your current situation compared to kargil war, and your current relation with either china or India ... compared to sino-pak relation?

every relation has its limit, bd has not invested enough political capital in either delhi and bejing so much so that they will forget their own strategic interest and dance to your tune.
when I said foreign policy is a success, it meant bd has balanced expectation of two big powers to her benefit... thats not a small feat in itself.