There is a lot of talk about china not supporting BD in the forum.
We need to be mature about this.
China is seeking influence in the region and competing with US and India. They have their own priority and interests and respond to the general attitude of the states they are dealing with.
Burmese are uneducated unsophisticated monkeys. They are perpetrating genocide, something they have successively done periodically as a way for the army to remain in power. What has been their default position to date, it has always been to shut themselves off from the rest of the world. Chinese have investments in place that would be harmed if Burma goes under sanction again. It is North Korea light.
Chinese calculation also factors in India who is seeking to gain a toehold. They will not take a position where there is a straight choice between them and the Indians from a Burmese perspective. This explains broadly my analysis of the Chinese perspective.
What about Chinese perspective of BD. It is a country that is completely different from Burma. It actively seeks to be part of the world community and is integrated into the world economy.
It also seeks to balance influence between US, China and India although there is a natural tendency to favour china.
What would it cost china to support MM over BD. In their calculus I do not believe it would be much. China expected their would be bad blood in BD but it would blow over in time. BD fundamentally do not trust India so it would gravitate towards china. This assumption is based on BD maintaining its current diplomatic posture.
Here in lies the question for BD. Can we maintain our current posture. I believe no.
We should have taken an aggressive position against the monkeys.
Despite all the talks neither china nor India would have gotten involved. The equation changes the moment BD changes posture.
China would not seek to alienate BD completely by directly assisting MM. India would then have been forced to support BD so as not to effectively have Chinese assets on the MM coast threating andaman. China directly supporting MM would force BD into Indian arms.
From an Indian perspective it's the same issue. They had to support MM so as to maintain links with the monkeys. Again as long as BD maintains current posture supporting MM makes sense as in the long run relationship with BD is mendable.
However in an active conflict India can not support MM. To do so would risk china effectively taking over Myanmar and completely removing Indian gains.
The current situation has come about due to BD passivity. China and India wishes to maintain status quo. This is served by paying lip service to MM. In any active conflict neither china nor India will participate and certainly not on behalf of MM.
BD needs to own the scenario and dictate it. We absolutely needs to take an aggressive posture against MM and shift alliances as necessary. The game is on, china and India would like to maintain status quo, US under trump is unpredictable but is anti china.
Ethnic cleansing of the rohingya is a direct threat against BD. A war can not be avoided and I would rather we just get on with it. There is no good time for war, we can say let's build up this and that but so will our enemies. There will never be a good time. It is not a option to be exercised lightly and should be taken with full consideration. But if it comes down would china and India support MM against BD.... then no they would not. China and India needs to maintain balance so they will step aside.
In the long run this scenario have proved again that BD stands alone. We need to accelerate our development and widen our alliances.
