Could Myanmar and Bangladesh Go To War Over the Rohingya Crisis?

[bluesky]

Bangladesh is stronger than Myanmar on its own theoretically I agree. However the equation is not Bangladesh vs Myanmar only. Rather both India and China have sided with Myanmar. In such a scenario Bangladesh stands no chance as only support from a country the size of the US would balance things. Such a move is not forthcoming. Pakistan, Turkey, Iran etc are not capable of turning the tide on such a balance of equation, hence why Myanmar is acting with such impunity. If Bangladesh had either China or India on its side then it could realistically have stood a chance in a conflict but that is not the case.

BD will remain stronger than MM militarily, and I do not see any direct involvement in a war either by China or India. These two countries may support MM in the diplomatic field, but not in ground action. Pakistan may work for BD, but its position has been neutralized by its agreeing to sell JF-17.

Could it be that Pakistan will create another east Pakistan in Arakan? I doubt it, though the Arakanese Muslims of today love to study in Urdu instead of Bengali. Other Muslim countries will support BD in the diplomatic field. So, BD and MM will have to fight by themselves with the possibility that they will readily accept an international arbitration brokered by the USA.

 

[TopCat]

Bangladesh is stronger than Myanmar on its own theoretically I agree. However the equation is not Bangladesh vs Myanmar only. Rather both India and China have sided with Myanmar. In such a scenario Bangladesh stands no chance as only support from a country the size of the US would balance things. Such a move is not forthcoming. Pakistan, Turkey, Iran etc are not capable of turning the tide on such a balance of equation, hence why Myanmar is acting with such impunity. If Bangladesh had either China or India on its side then it could realistically have stood a chance in a conflict but that is not the case.

God forbid, if there were a war then India has no other option but to support BD militarily. India cant afford BD's defeat. And if China comes along which is very unlikely, India will never allow Chinese military presence in BOB.

 

[Bengal Tiger 71]

Whatever will be do the task should be done by BD own. otherwise we have no choice. i don't know who will be with us but as soon as possible BD need to gear up & increase Defense budget.neither we all know.............!

 

[Michael Corleone]

burma wasnts us to fight them, they want to show the world we're responsible.... bd is playing cool for now which i think is the smarter move.... amid what dumbtrucks in pak defence have to say.

 

[TopCat]

burma wasnts us to fight them, they want to show the world we're responsible.... bd is playing cool for now which i think is the smarter move.... amid what dumbtrucks in pak defence have to say.

Nobody ask BD to move tanks down there. What was asked to launch offensive in diplomatic front. Instead our government sent one of their full minister with his wife to buy rice from MM. I am not suggesting to halt the trade but a junior officer could do the job. Myanmar actually sent a junior officer as reciprocal visit to sign the final deal this week.

 

[bd_4_ever]

burma wasnts us to fight them, they want to show the world we're responsible.... bd is playing cool for now which i think is the smarter move.... amid what dumbtrucks in pak defence have to say.

This is what I have been saying. Regardless, playing calm is the way to go when the regional powers are by their side. However, I still reiterate that we should have fired at their helicopter to make the game equal, after they violated our airspace numerous time. That should have reminded them about the lesson we gave them back in 2000 during the Naf river conflict. Apart from this, all that we have done is the right thing to do IMO.

@TopCat @UKBengali - may be you guys can share details about what happened in 2000 when we last faced them.

 

[Bengal Tiger 71]

BD has only past like football team. now days BD can't win at least against Bhutan. only the talk are remaining which we do well.

 

[Avicenna]

Bangladesh will be betting on Turkey/Japan a lot in the future.
UK is the only country I have seen in my entire life stood by our side. I dont know why but they probably still remember Bengal as their gateway to the empire until 20th century.

Diversification of ties.

Turkey, Iran, Malaysia and Indonesia, Japan and yes the U.K.

Also, current crisis notwithstanding, the military MUST be built up, of course with an eye to not harm the economy.

Also, alliances need to be cultivated. I know Bangladesh doesn't have a lot to bring to the table at this point. But the bottom line is that it is a nation of 160 million and extremely underdeveloped.

The population of bengalis are mostly moderate, reasonable and well balanced folks. Peace loving and non confrontational. But attributes that encourage a stable and harmonious society.

Finally, we need to get balls.

People, this is Burma we are talking about. It's pathetic that Bangladesh is in this situation.

 

[UKBengali]

Diversification of ties.

Turkey, Iran, Malaysia and Indonesia, Japan and yes the U.K.

Also, current crisis notwithstanding, the military MUST be built up, of course with an eye to not harm the economy.

Also, alliances need to be cultivated. I know Bangladesh doesn't have a lot to bring to the table at this point. But the bottom line is that it is a nation of 160 million and extremely underdeveloped.

The population of bengalis are mostly moderate, reasonable and well balanced folks. Peace loving and non confrontational. But attributes that encourage a stable and harmonious society.

Finally, we need to get balls.

People, this is Burma we are talking about. It's pathetic that Bangladesh is in this situation.

What an embarrassment that a nation with 3.5 times less GDP is doing this while BD stands by.

 

[Avicenna]

What an embarrassment that a nation with 3.5 times less GDP is doing this while BD stands by.

Unfortunately it's the reality of the international politics involved. In the current scenario, Myanmar presents a more attractive strategic interest to China and India than Bangladesh does.

 

[Michael Corleone]

Nobody ask BD to move tanks down there. What was asked to launch offensive in diplomatic front. Instead our government sent one of their full minister with his wife to buy rice from MM. I am not suggesting to halt the trade but a junior officer could do the job. Myanmar actually sent a junior officer as reciprocal visit to sign the final deal this week.

what's with bengalis and rice... seriously and especially from a country killing innocent people.

This is what I have been saying. Regardless, playing calm is the way to go when the regional powers are by their side. However, I still reiterate that we should have fired at their helicopter to make the game equal, after they violated our airspace numerous time. That should have reminded them about the lesson we gave them back in 2000 during the Naf river conflict. Apart from this, all that we have done is the right thing to do IMO.

@TopCat @UKBengali - may be you guys can share details about what happened in 2000 when we last faced them.

we should have a jet atleast and forced it to land in our country... that would have been a humiliation in itself.
they've forgotten their lessons at naf... unfortunately such independent generals are not present anymore, and (i think that dude was just over aggressive which i don't like, but ofc i can't say for sure if i still don't know what happened there apples to apples.)

 

[mb444]

Utterly utterly pathetic BAL idiocy.

Cut off all economic relationship with the monkeys. Treat them like the pariah they are.

 

[Nilgiri]

If you are ever capable of visiting Chinese forum, you will find Chinese people unanimously support the action of Burma, actually our government's position matches people's wish. Why?

First, China took round 40,000 rohingya refuges several years ago in our border area, who ever since enjoy a peaceful and comfortable life. Do you know what those bastards did to us in return? They helped uyghurs to smuggle out of China to participate in Jihad wars and smuggled weapons into China for the same reason, all in the name of your muslim brotherhood. as a result, we hated them to the bones and don't blink an eye no matter how they are treated in myanmar, maybe the harsher the better.

Second, it is not an coincidence that they caused problems for myanmar at the time when China just opened an oil pipeline in that area. even an dumber would know that US is behind their rebellions in this particular moment. In short, China is behind myanmar on this issue. If you guys wanted to be a stooge of west and claim war on myanmar, you can try your luck on China's response. After all, US is far far away and China is very very close.


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Thank you for this post. It is good to know that many Chinese (in their forums) support Myanmar in these actions. You are very correct about Rohingya problem too. Whole region is waking up to their menace.

Also don't take the BD nationalists here too seriously, they are just mad at the reality of how their country got treated. They have eternal victimhood complex. On the ground BD will do nothing, they have no strength or terms to be taken credibly.

 

[UKBengali]

Thank you for this post. It is good to know that many Chinese (in their forums) support Myanmar in these actions. You are very correct about Rohingya problem too. Whole region is waking up to their menace.

Also don't take the BD nationalists here too seriously, they are just mad at the reality of how their country got treated. They have eternal victimhood complex. On the ground BD will do nothing, they have no strength or terms to be taken credibly.

Most Chinese posters here are supportive of BD.
Let us not take one ignorant Chinese seriously.
Dude was trying to compare ethnic Chinese refugess with Rohingya but did not note that unlike the Rohingya, Myanmar does not deny ethnic Chinese are citizens of Myanmar.

 

[Nilgiri]

God forbid, if there were a war then India has no other option but to support BD militarily. India cant afford BD's defeat.

LOL. No we wont. We will watch and even support Myanmar....and shoot BD "refugees" trying to escape your hell hole (Hindus, Buddhists only allowed in - provided they arent ingrates) rather than play friendly dada role like 1971 (because we saw how that turned out). We dont want another case of ingrate nation in delta like there is now. BD will not be allowed to survive whoever it goes to war with next (be it MM, India or itself - only 3 options). Fewer BD scum and ingrates there are stealing oxygen, the better.

Your best bet it to take this current shafting and learn to live with it....and prepare for next one same way (i.e open nice and wide)....it will be coming from more sides too....for more of your orifices. This is so you can stay together and actually have some chance of becoming more than a rubber stamp of a country long term. Current generation of ppl in BD just need to learn to enjoy and calmly accept what and where they are in geopolitical reality. If you get hotheaded about it, 1000 of you will die for every 1 you manage to get outside. That will depopulate you to a more sustainable level as wanted by others (not yourselves) like pressure valve. Thats why SHW is the best thing for BD right now, and why she (and BAL) will continue for foreseeable future. They fundamentally understand who runs the show and what BD position w.r.t it is.

I hope most BD people put up a good fight against SHW though in the election....and a good amount of blood is shed for an inevitable futile result....just to show your people what the reality of BD in current format is.

we should have a jet atleast and forced it to land in our country

Should have, could have, would have....lol. I love BD's reaction...perfectly sums up the BD people in a nutshell. Reality hurts.

I think you need another opinion piece on BD and why it sucks (maybe from more foreign policy angle rather than your personal internal one). The first one was gold haha.

Most Chinese posters here are supportive of BD.

Hence I was thankful for him in referring to Chinese forums in general rather than this particular forum which would not present an accurate picture.

After all there is a shocking lack of Chinese public demonstration against Myanmar and in support of Rohingya (but maybe you can find me pictures/news on it?)....definitely there would be quite a few if this forum represented Chinese public overall on the issue?...at least say outside the Myanmar embassy?

Normally globalist thinking MSM-indoctrinated "liberals" in any country rally for it (past the typical muslim presence to begin with like say in India as we saw in Kolkata), seems the Chinese know better....and kudos to the Chinese for it.

@pher