Could Japan be Developing Nuclear Weapons?

[kalu_miah]

Older thread on same subject:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...-develop-nuclear-weapons-defend-itself-6.html

Could Japan be Developing Nuclear Weapons? | Greenan Report

Could Japan be Developing Nuclear Weapons?

12 AUG

This week Japan’s Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) received a five-year license for uranium exploration in Uzbekistan’s Navoi region. The deal which Japan has been working on for the past couple of years is not all that out of the ordinary, Uzbekistan just like the rest of Central Asia, is a hotbed for great-power competition with the US, China, Russia, India and Japan competing for the countries resources.

Nonetheless, due to the growing anti-nuclear movement in Japan following the Fukushima nuclear disaster, it seems strange that Japan’s national mineral resource company would be conducting uranium exploration. However, more importantly there are three worrying signs that may signal that Japan’s demand for uranium maybe more than just peaceful means.

Firstly, Japan which has always been viewed as ”nuclear ready” state possessing enough raw materials and technical knowhow to quickly develop nuclear weapons if necessary, seems to be making significant steps towards producing nuclear weapons. The Wall Street Journal published an article on May 1 indicating concerns in Washington that the opening of a huge reprocessing plant could be used to stockpile plutonium for the future manufacture of nuclear weapons.

The Rokkasho reprocessing facility in northern Honshu could produce nine tones of weapons-grade plutonium annually, this could be enough plutonium to produce 2,000 nuclear bombs. Tokyo has insisted that the plutonium will be used solely to provide nuclear power, despite this only two of the country’s 50 nuclear power reactors are currently operating and by March 2014 this is only expected to rise to eight.

The second issue is Japan is currently stockpiling many more tons of uranium and plutonium than is needed for Japan’s nuclear energy needs. Back in January 2011 two months before the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japan was planning to accumulate a stockpile of 120 tons of enriched uranium by 2015 marking the first time the government had stockpiled emergency supplies of nuclear fuel. However, since Japan’s Fukushima disaster uranium stockpile is creating an overhang on world markets, while uranium prices have dramatically decreased. Despite some analysts believing Uranium prices will increase by 2014 and Japanese stockpiles decreasing as more nuclear power plants go back online, the exploration of uranium in Uzbekistan seems poorly timed considering Japans massive stockpile and the ongoing problems with the global uranium market.

Back in June 2012 Japan Times reported that Japan had stockpiled 45 tons weapons grade plutonium 239, roughly enough plutonium for 5,000 nuclear warheads. One year on the Atomic Energy Commission reported that Japan currently possesses 44 tons of plutonium, with the stockpile only decreasing by 1 ton over the past year.

The third issue is back in April Japan refused to sign a document that described nuclear weapons as inhumane. Despite the document being only symbolic and not legally binding, Japans refusal to sign the document came as a shock, due to their anti-nuclear stance and declaration of peace under Article-9 of the Japanese constitution. The document which was signed by 70 states including South Africa and Switzerland was also snubbed by Russia, India, Pakistan and the United States, all nuclear powers.

The Asahi Shimbun wrote that Japanese officials had said the document’s wording “made it difficult to approve it because it would contradict Japan’s policy of reliance on the U.S. nuclear umbrella for national security purposes.” On the other hand Prime Minister Abe said that Japan had a “responsibility to realize” a nuclear free world, but continued to justify Tokyo’s refusal to sign the UN pledge by saying Japan faced a “severe security environment” due to their proximity to North Korea.

Japan currently has the capabilities and resources to construct a nuclear bomb, and with increased tension in the East China Sea and on the Korean peninsula, Japan is rapidly developing it military and changing its security policy to counteract these threats. Whether Japan has already constructed a nuclear bomb and like Israel denies it, or whether Japan will soon start a nuclear program, we may never know until either the government admits it, or a nuclear crisis arises. However, Japan’s changing military policy, the stockpiling of nuclear material, the construction of new facilities and Japan’s unnecessary exploration in Uzbekistan, hints that Japan may be looking to join the “nuclear club,” to gain deterrence against its regional nuclear adversaries.

Posted by Matthew Greenan on August 12, 2013 in Japan

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Japanese people hate nuclear weapons more than anyone else, for obvious reasons. They are at the forefront of the global non-proliferation movement.

Their pacifist constitution was written with the specific intent that later generations would not be able to change it. In fact, since 1945... the Japanese constitution has not been amended even once, that's how hard it is.

Not to mention that polls show the majority of Japanese people don't want nuclear weapons. And they are a conservative society, which means even if the constitution could be changed, it won't be.

They have enough technological know-how to build a bomb if they want. They are not doing it for their own reasons.

 

[kalu_miah]

Japanese Protesters Call for Japan’s Nuclear Armament on Hiroshima Anniversary

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

By Angela Kubo

Tokyo- (PanOrient News) A group of Japanese demonstrators gathered in Tokyo today called on their government to obtain nuclear weapons and scrap Japan’s peace constitution so that it can have a standing army.

The protest, held on the day Japan marks as the 68th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima by U.S. forces, was organized by Zainichi Tokken o Yurusanai Shimin no Kai (Citizens Against Special Privilege of Zainichi Koreans), also known as Zaitokukai, a nationalist group noted for its anti-Korean protests and a far-right doctrine. They also called upon the Japanese government to arm itself in order to resolve its territorial disputes.

“Today is the day that nuclear weapons were dropped for the first time in Japan and for the first time in mankind. This is a demonstration calling for Japan to obtain nuclear weapons in order to protect itself, so that Japan will never be subjected to nuclear dosages ever again,” the leader of Zaitokukai, Makoto Sakurai, told PanOrient News.

Under Article 9 of the post-war constitution, Japan cannot maintain armed military forces. The Japan Self-Defense Forces are limited to peace-keeping and rescue operations. Currently, they cannot initiate attack on a foreign country.

Although Japan maintains a security treaty with the United States that allows the former to maintain military bases on Japanese territory in exchange for protection under the U.S.’s nuclear umbrella, Sakurai doubts that such an arrangement can protect his country from foreign attack and believes that national protection should be left solely to Japan.

“American bases are for the purpose of protecting the United States. They won’t necessarily protect Japan, so a country which irresponsibly does not defend itself is not believed in by anyone. It cannot be trusted by anyone. In order to become a country which can be trusted, it must be able to properly protect itself on its own. I think that’s obvious,” he said.

As the group left Sakamotocho Park in central Tokyo, they were accompanied by police and followed by counter-protesters who organized themselves online. Both groups exchanged verbal threats and abuse.

“The protesters say that Japan can take care of itself if it took up nuclear weapons. That’s absurd! I’m against that, and because they’re saying these things on August 6, the anniversary of the dropping of the bomb on Hiroshima, I can’t forgive them, so that’s why I’m here,” said Norio Oishi, one of the counter-protesters.

Meanwhile in Hiroshima, about fifty thousand people, including survivors of the 1945 bomb, gathered at a memorial service to observe a moment of silence. The mayor of Hiroshima, Kazumi Matsui, stated in a Peace Declaration, “We will again think of the efforts of our predecessors of 68 years, and pledge to abolish nuclear weapons which are an absolute evil and work towards the realization of a peaceful world.”

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who also attended the memorial ceremony, said, “We Japanese are the only people to have experienced the horror of nuclear devastation in war. As such a people, we bear a responsibility to bring about a world without nuclear weapons without fail.” At the conclusion of his speech he stated that Japan will continue to adhere to the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles" and work towards the “total abolition of nuclear weapons and the realization of eternal world peace.”

In Tokyo, when the protesters arrived at the ruling Liberal Democratic Party Headquarters, organizers entered the building to submit a letter addressed to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that called on for him to rethink Japan’s nuclear weapons’ policy.

A copy of the letter, which was obtained by PanOrient News, congratulated Abe on his Upper House election win last month. It argued, “Already China and North Korea show off the existence of nuclear weapons to their neighbors, including Japan. It can be said that they demonstrate sufficient power when viewed as a nuclear deterrent. On the other hand, although our country has focused on missile defense, it is impossible that it can absolutely intercept all ballistic missiles, so it is a matter of course that Japan builds its own nuclear deterrent as an umbrella.”

Furthermore, the letter stated, "Indeed, Japan is the only country in this world which is suffered from atomic bombings. However, our neighboring countries do not spare any extra consideration for that. As a matter fact, China and North Korea have been imposing threats of nuclear attacks against Japan as they possess nuclear weapons. The government has to think of all the possibilities to protect its nation."

The letter concluded by requesting that the Prime Minister quickly start a debate within the government about arming the country with nuclear weapons in order to protect itself. Despite the strong stigma surrounding anything nuclear due to the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the Fukushima meltdown two years earlier, the Zaitokukai have indicated their determination to put Japan’s rearmament on the national radar.

Angela Kubo is a PanOrient News reporter.

 

[kalu_miah]

Japanese people hate nuclear weapons more than anyone else, for obvious reasons. They are at the forefront of the global non-proliferation movement.

Their pacifist constitution was written with the specific intent that later generations would not be able to change it. In fact, since 1945... the Japanese constitution has not been amended even once, that's how hard it is.

Not to mention that polls show the majority of Japanese people don't want nuclear weapons. And they are a conservative society, which means even if the constitution could be changed, it won't be.

They have enough technological know-how to build a bomb if they want. They are not doing it for their own reasons.

Its the Japanese right wingers that is trying to change this, like you said they are a small minority. That said, you may want to check this:
Japan Tackles Perils To Building, Selling Its Own Next-Gen Fighter « Breaking Defense - Defense industry news, analysis and commentary

While the F-35 provides Japan with the means to radically shift the diplomatic and military balance of power in Asia-Pacific, Japan will need to make a risky break with its past if it hopes to produce indigenous NGEN fighters. Such an effort would simultaneously require Japan to emerge as a unilateral military superpower and major exporter of military aircraft. Although there are preliminary indications that the Japanese Government may be willing to move in that direction, the program is certainly no fait accompli. While Japan can probably overcome the technical and legal hurdles facing the developing of a NGEN fighter, it remains a serious question as to whether the country will be willing to bear the steep political and diplomatic costs required.

Core Challenge

It certainly is no secret that Japan has been actively pursuing an indigenous NGEN fighter in parallel with its efforts to import them from the United States or Europe. Japan has publicly contracted Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) to lay the foundation for this fighter under the Advanced Technology Demonstrator (ATD-X) project.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) recently announced it has begun assembling a full-scale ATD-X fighter test model. While this marks an important milestone in Japan’s efforts to produce its own NGEN fighter, the program still has a long way to go, including overcoming some major technical hurdles.

There is little doubt that buying the F-35 will help close the gap between Japan’s R&D program and established NGEN fighter programs abroad. With time, Japan’s skilled workforce and manufacturing capabilities probably are sufficient to overcome the rest.

However, bringing the NGEN fighter development program to fruition requires more than technical capabilities. Although Japan remains the world’s third largest economy, it is questionable whether Tokyo can unilaterally support the capital outlay required to develop a peer competitor to the Chinese Chengdu J-20 or the Russian Sukhoi PAK FA — especially after the global economic crisis and last year’s Great East Japan Earthquake. The reality is that producing competitive NGEN fighters probably requires far more funding than Japanese policymakers forecast.

As a result, Japan will need to mirror the approaches used by other NGEN producers, including offsetting development costs with foreign exports. This is the only realistic business model which proves politically and economically viable for building a true NGEN fighter. Since Japan’s current laws prohibit the export of such a fighter, Tokyo therefore needs to relax or rewrite its export control restrictions. Japan’s recent moves in this direction increase the likelihood that the domestic legal barriers to exports will eventually disappear.

It would be a mistake though to assume that the challenges before Japan in developing a NGEN fighter are purely technological and legal in nature. To move the program forward, Japan will need to do far more than to just design a fighter that its military and potential buyers will find attractive. It also will have to overcome the serious political and diplomatic barriers which threaten such an initiative. Nowhere is this more evident than the considerable opposition that would arise should Japan try to export them.

Eddie Walsh is a non-resident fellow at Pacific Forum CSIS. He also is a freelance foreign correspondent who writes extensively on diplomacy and defense issues in Asia-Pacific. He can be followed @aseanreporting.

Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi is a non-resident fellow at Pacific Forum CSIS. He also is a Reserve Specialist with Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Forces and a Ph.D. candidate at the Australian Defense Force Academy. The views expressed are his and do not necessarily reflect those of the Japanese Self Defense Force or the Australian Defense Force Academy.

 

[walle]

Japan has nothing to gain of they choose to acquire nuclear weapons. They are an island nation, making nuclear weapon will only make them a target with no escape route.

 

[Fsjal]

Sure, Japan has rockets and nuclear reactors, making them capable of making nuclear missiles. But, if it comes to missile miniaturization, well, we have a problem. Look at China's DF-31/41, those missiles are 13m/15m long. Also, Japan could only launch them at space pads, making them good targets for attack planes. Now, if they were to test a nuclear warhead, they can only do underwater tests, which will screw the Sea of Japan even more.

Now, if they were to launch their missiles at China, well, goodbye to Japan's big cities, like Tokyo and Osaka, which are good targets for Chinese missiles, since those cities are dense.

 

[Genesis]

Dude that ship has sailed.

Even disregarding the fact they have had nuclear tech since the end of WW2, they are one of the leaders in nuclear tech.

Japan is a developed country, I have no illusions about them, if they want it they already have it, just haven't made it yet.

They are no Iran, dudes, when they say they don't have it, they mean they don't want it.

 

[manofwar]

Japan developing nuclear weapons?? Give me a break
That would be an International Diplomatic suicide, not to mention the downfall of any govt that attempts it. Being Nuclear-Ready is one thing, but an active Nuke Program would be an exaggeration

 

[xunzi]

Its the Japanese right wingers that is trying to change this, like you said they are a small minority. That said, you may want to check this:
Japan Tackles Perils To Building, Selling Its Own Next-Gen Fighter « Breaking Defense - Defense industry news, analysis and commentary



Eddie Walsh is a non-resident fellow at Pacific Forum CSIS. He also is a freelance foreign correspondent who writes extensively on diplomacy and defense issues in Asia-Pacific. He can be followed @aseanreporting.

Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi is a non-resident fellow at Pacific Forum CSIS. He also is a Reserve Specialist with Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Forces and a Ph.D. candidate at the Australian Defense Force Academy. The views expressed are his and do not necessarily reflect those of the Japanese Self Defense Force or the Australian Defense Force Academy.

It won't be easy for Japan to crack the exclusive club. My bet is in the future, USA/Russia/China will have a secret agreement not to export their top technological weapon to avoid competition among themselves and to keep others from catching up, which will mitigated their hard power. This is evidence by the fact all three powers USA/Russia/China had been very lukewarm to the idea of UN security council reform.

 

[GR!FF!N]

Japan has the tech for building nukes as well as missiles capable to launch it..they're in the forefront of tech world..but they'll not procure nukes as they're strictly against it,for the obvious reasons..its them who actually bearing the only burnt of nuclear warfare..

plus,they've the USA to protect them..when you're under USA's nuclear umbrella,who the hell wants nukes???

 

[kalu_miah]

It won't be easy for Japan to crack the exclusive club. My bet is in the future, USA/Russia/China will have a secret agreement not to export their top technological weapon to avoid competition among themselves and to keep others from catching up, which will mitigated their hard power. This is evidence by the fact all three powers USA/Russia/China had been very lukewarm to the idea of UN security council reform.

For a long while my bet has been that Japan will go ahead with nuclear weapons and delivery systems when it becomes clear that hard power balance will soon tilt in China's favor in East Asia, lets say in 5-10 years, even with increasing US presence in Asian pivot scheme.

Japan is definitely going for indigenous 5th gen. fighter planes with its own indigenous engine, as described in the paper mentioned in post #4. China and Russia are friendly to each other under SCO grouping, but none will have any role in Japanese decision making. And SCO will remain at odds with NATO, so a secret pact, that you mentioned is very unlikely, unless China goes democratic, which is also unlikely. Even if China becomes a multiparty democracy, SCO I believe will still remain at odds with NATO. So in this time frame only the US will have influence over Japanese who will make a calculated defiant move, first in case of the 5th gen. fighter and then finally in case of nuclear weapons.

Japan, may also try to increase its influence among ASEAN nations and improve its ties with South Korea and form a security alliance, together with the US. When these ASEAN nations become more developed, the Japan led alliance may switch allegiance from USA to China led SCO, if China can play its cards right.

 

[xunzi]

For a long while my bet has been that Japan will go ahead with nuclear weapons and delivery systems when it becomes clear that hard power balance will soon tilt in China's favor in East Asia, lets say in 5-10 years, even with increasing US presence in Asian pivot scheme.

Japan is definitely going for indigenous 5th gen. fighter planes with its own indigenous engine, as described in the paper mentioned in post #4. China and Russia are friendly to each other under SCO grouping, but none will have any role in Japanese decision making. And SCO will remain at odds with NATO, so a secret pact, that you mentioned is very unlikely, unless China goes democratic, which is also unlikely. Even if China becomes a multiparty democracy, SCO I believe will still remain at odds with NATO. So in this time frame only the US will have influence over Japanese who will make a calculated defiant move, first in case of the 5th gen. fighter and then finally in case of nuclear weapons.

Japan, may also try to increase its influence among ASEAN nations and improve its ties with South Korea and form a security alliance, together with the US. When these ASEAN nations become more developed, the Japan led alliance may switch allegiance from USA to China led SCO, if China can play its cards right.

I admire your evaluation but your strategic analysis is not profoundly correct. First and foremost, Japan WILL face the wrath of the USA's power. It's diplomatic suicide for Japan to go nuke. It will create a nightmare, a hell for the USA as everyone in the region will go nuke. Japan is at the forefront of NPT, by them going nuclear route, it creates a very bad example.

As for an indigenous 5th generation fighter program, I highly doubt it will pass the testing phase and go into full development, let alone operational phase. Assuming Japan can overcome the technical and economic barrier, there is also the diplomatic barrier to overcome. How will the USA react to this? Will the USA perceive an indigenous program meant the end of USA's billion dollar weapon business to Japan? Are Japan ready to engage in an arm race with USA/China, who are both much larger and superior? The implication of that is enormous. It will cripple Japan economy to engage in an arm race with China. China-Japan will never be ally, so it's a far fetched dream.

 

[Fattyacids]

For a long while my bet has been that Japan will go ahead with nuclear weapons and delivery systems when it becomes clear that hard power balance will soon tilt in China's favor in East Asia, lets say in 5-10 years, even with increasing US presence in Asian pivot scheme.

Japan is definitely going for indigenous 5th gen. fighter planes with its own indigenous engine, as described in the paper mentioned in post #4. China and Russia are friendly to each other under SCO grouping, but none will have any role in Japanese decision making. And SCO will remain at odds with NATO, so a secret pact, that you mentioned is very unlikely, unless China goes democratic, which is also unlikely. Even if China becomes a multiparty democracy, SCO I believe will still remain at odds with NATO. So in this time frame only the US will have influence over Japanese who will make a calculated defiant move, first in case of the 5th gen. fighter and then finally in case of nuclear weapons.

Japan, may also try to increase its influence among ASEAN nations and improve its ties with South Korea and form a security alliance, together with the US. When these ASEAN nations become more developed, the Japan led alliance may switch allegiance from USA to China led SCO, if China can play its cards right.

IMHO, there is no chance South Korea would form a security alliance with Japan, even the threat from North Korea during the cold war era could not bring S. Korea and Japan together for the obvious reason.
Japan has no real friends in East Asia, but it has a big daddy in the US. Does Japan need to go nuclear? CHina is not going to use nuke over an island dispute. North Korea is nowhere near a nuclear state. US is still the strongest military power. Unless that equation changes, I don't see Japan going nuclear. But first, let's see if Abe administration is up to the challenge of amending the constitution.

 

[Audio]

It won't be easy for Japan to crack the exclusive club. My bet is in the future, USA/Russia/China will have a secret agreement not to export their top technological weapon to avoid competition among themselves and to keep others from catching up, which will mitigated their hard power. This is evidence by the fact all three powers USA/Russia/China had been very lukewarm to the idea of UN security council reform.

LOL! BS!

Who exports their latest tech?

I admire your evaluation but your strategic analysis is not profoundly correct. First and foremost, Japan WILL face the wrath of the USA's power. It's diplomatic suicide for Japan to go nuke. It will create a nightmare, a hell for the USA as everyone in the region will go nuke. Japan is at the forefront of NPT, by them going nuclear route, it creates a very bad example.

As for an indigenous 5th generation fighter program, I highly doubt it will pass the testing phase and go into full development, let alone operational phase. Assuming Japan can overcome the technical and economic barrier, there is also the diplomatic barrier to overcome. How will the USA react to this? Will the USA perceive an indigenous program meant the end of USA's billion dollar weapon business to Japan? Are Japan ready to engage in an arm race with USA/China, who are both much larger and superior? The implication of that is enormous. It will cripple Japan economy to engage in an arm race with China. China-Japan will never be ally, so it's a far fetched dream.

Lots of BS here too, you'd do yourself a favor if you'd go and research the Japanese commitment to 5th gen technology.
Also, US is fine with Japan going nuclear. There's a reason Japan had so much nuclear fuel and was allowed to buy even more. And in any case, the fact Japan has a nuclear deterent would if not leaked be conveyed through back channels to those interested ie China.

 

[xunzi]

LOL! BS!

Who exports their latest tech?



Lots of BS here too, you'd do yourself a favor if you'd go and research the Japanese commitment to 5th gen technology.
Also, US is fine with Japan going nuclear. There's a reason Japan had so much nuclear fuel and was allowed to buy even more. And in any case, the fact Japan has a nuclear deterent would if not leaked be conveyed through back channels to those interested ie China.

Who is who? You mean a few components of Japanese technology being deployed on F-22?

I think you need to do research more than I do. Commitment on a technology demonstrator and putting real development program into place are entirely different ball game. Japan has historically produced indigenous aircraft, like the F2, at exorbitant price and no added value to its capabilities compare with contemporary aircraft. So I seriously doubt they will ever produced an aircraft at reasonable price to compete in quantity with other Pacific World Power.

Do you understand the significance of allowing Japan to go nuke? It won't be easy for USA to convince China that Japan going nuke will not harm the interest of China security. So in a way, if the USA allows Japan to go nuke, USA cannot stop others from going nuke too. It will create a nuclear environment that is not favorable to USA nor China. And if Japan goes nuke, is there a need for US's nuclear umbrella? How is the US reacts to limiting US's projected power in the Asia Pacific when Japan goes nuke? Answer all these questions won't be easy.

Here is a quick thought on Japan 5th Gen that I agree with.

----------------------------------------------------------

Quick Thoughts: Japanese 5th Generation Aircraft?

I came across an interesting video posted on the Aviationist website. The CGI video shows a mix of Japanese 5th generation aircraft destroying Chinese forces in 2035. Although the video is certainly entertaining, the status of Japan's 5th generation domestic fighter program, the ATD-X, is far from materializing into anything. The planned ATD-X demonstrator is basically an F-22A; the program was created in part as a result of the export ban on the F-22 by the United States Congress. Japan's aerospace industry is a classic example of how NOT to develop new fighter aircraft. Japanese Government policy in regards to prioritizing domestic aerospace development has historically produced aircraft at exorbitant prices with little to no added benefit in capabilities.

"Japan is still trying to dig itself out of the financial hole resulting from its last national fighter, the ill-starred F-2. That warplane began development in the late 1980s as a ‘Japanization’ of the Lockheed Martin F-16, adding a bigger wing and better electronics. But the modifications, performed by Mitsubishi, proved difficult. And the limited production run – fewer than 100 copies over 20 years – made it impossible for Mitsubishi to achieve economies of scale. It’s been claimed that an F-2 costs four times as much as an F-16, without providing anywhere near a fourfold increase in capability." - David Axe, 2011

The F-2 program is just one of many minimally effective Japanese domestic aerospace development programs. In 2008 Japan cancelled its order of licence built (Fuji Heavy Industries) AH-64D Apaches from 62 to just 14 as each helicopter had a unit price of $85 million dollars; Boeing produced AH-64D's cost less than $30 million per unit. The Japanese defense industry is ill-suited to take on an aerospace mega project like the ATD-X. The Japanese military budget is limited to 1% of GDP meaning the ATD-X is doomed if past aerospace projects are any indication.

"ATD-X could eventually set Japan back $100 billion once design, production, maintenance and operations were factored in. Assuming a 40-year service life for the plane, that would mean the Shinshin could consume more than 5 percent of Japan’s roughly $50-billion-a-year defence budget – and produce just a few dozen copies." - David Axe, 2011

Its worth noting that the ATD-X won't start development in earnest until 2016-2017 meaning a final product (designated F-3) won't be viable until at least the mid 2020s and deployment in the late 2020s. By the time the F-3 fighter enters service it will be of little use. American 6th generation aircraft such as the F/A-XX and the Lockheed concept shown below are planned to enter service by 2030-2035.

If Japan really wants to develop a domestic 5th generation program, they need to make substantial reforms to their defense industry. As far as both intellectual capital and monetary resources are concerned, only the United States, China, and Russia are in a position to develop 5th generation aircraft for the foreseeable future. The prudent path forward for Japan is to learn as much as it can from co-producing the F-35 before attempting to create a new ultra ambitious aerospace program of its own.

The only 5th generation fighter program that stands a reasonable degree of success outside of China, Russia and the United States is the South Korean KF-X program. Korean Aerospace Industries (KAI) is much more practical in its ambition when compared to Japan's ATD-X program. The KF-X-E concept is intended replace the the KF-16 by 2030 and features a relaxed low observable design.

"Retention of the single tail on the KF-X-E is emblematic of the limited ambition of the designers, who appear to have aimed at achieving a level of stealth above that of the Eurofighter Typhoon and Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet but well below that of the Lockheed Martin F-22 and F-35. The latter two, like other stealth aircraft, have canted twin tail fins." - Bradley Perrett, Bill Sweetman, 2013

KAI knows that the KF-X-E will enter service at a time where the F-35 is the dominant 5th generation export, thus its strategy is to market the KF-X-E as a 5th generation Gripen of sorts: a low cost, lower performance fighter for lower budget militaries. The KF-X program still has a very long way to go and could easily fail but other foreign stealth fighter programs are even more dubious.

Before anyone shouts at me for forgetting India, I didn't. India is trying to develop the 5th generation advanced medium combat aircraft. Given the myriad of problems with the comparatively technologically simple 4th generation HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited) Tejas, I seriously doubt HAL is in any position to develop 5th generation aircraft without substantial Russian assistance in the near future. Even with Russian cooperation, the current 5th generation FGFA order was cut from 200 to 144 due to price overruns.