Consquences of military operation in North waziristan

[Bratva]

new stratgy been applied, in the OPS theater by PAKARMY?
which is simple, no announcements, just hit hard , whenever , where ever you can, with accurate intell?
its the best & great time line, i guss?
will going to bring fast results, for sure!


just say yah allha maddad to GREEN BRIGADE, fighting side by side with its PAKARMY against the most of the brutal beasts on earth called, TTp!

App yaha pakdef par kia kar rahy hain. AFIC mai musharraf ji kai pallu sai lag kar kio nai bethay?

 

[batmannow]

App yaha pakdef par kia kar rahy hain. AFIC mai musharraf ji kai pallu sai lag kar kio nai bethay?

ok beta, app ney IMRAN bhai ki gandi underwear dhoo li?
shabash?
IMRAN bhai kam par hien, abhi aur saaman aney wala hai, app key liyaa?
zara jaldi sey hath, chalaoo?
shabash!

 

[Bratva]

I admit that i am not genius like you but my akhroat-self has observed that military operation against your own people always have bad consequences. Dialogues should always be the priority. I agree with ansar abasi that Allah is punishing Pakistan in the form of TTP for siding with America against afghans and cooperating with them on every level, american invasion killed more than 1 million afghans and pakistan is partner in crime. Siding with America and betraying Afghans on one phone call of collin powel brought you worst consequences in the form of TTP
Analysts and intellectuals were telling your pak army not to enter into south waziristan and violate agreement of jinnah with tribals. But naak-ki-seedh may sochnay walay faujis pointed guns at ahmadzai wazirs without thinking about the consequences. You broke shakai agreemnat on american pressure and killed nek mohammad by requesting american drone.......opening the door for violation of sovereignty of Pakistan by america in the form of drone strikes. Nek mohammad was declared "shaheed" by locals and his death inspired many wazirs and mehsuds to take arms against your army.
You carried out lal masji operation in brutal way, used chemicals on them and killed hundreds of female students without thinking about consequences. by doing this , TNSM announced their war against you in malakand. And baitullah mehsud extended his war outside waziristan to avenge lal masjid incident. Lal masjid incident gave birth to TTP, against which you are still in the state of war.
Your army killed akbar bugt without thinking about the consequences, now balochs are attacking your security forces, burning your flags and banning your national anthem.
Consequences of north waziristan operation will be of greater magnitude, there is a reason why pak army always shied away from north waziristan operation.

I had a diarrhea after reading this BS.

After breaking Shakai agreement? You should be careful, because there are smart beings here who have/has abetter memory. Before the killing of nek mohmmad and breaking Shakai Agreement. There was a clause in Shakai agreement not to host foreign elements (Arabs, Uzbeks, Chechens) and expel them from FATA as they were violating the peace. Government repeatedly asked him to implement his end of deal. He denied, didn't care. First sign of dishonesty shown from Nek Mohammad. Then in May or early june 2004. There was a major attack on Pakistan Army check posts in Waziristan. More than two dozen soldiers were killed. Nek mohmmad proudly took credit of this attack. Why nek mohmmad attacked Pak army despite being having peace accord with them?

After this Pak army broke shakai agreement and first drone was used on nek mohmmad. Your BS theory got busted


Show me the proof of hundred of girls killed? Even Pakistani independent judiciary investigation made no mention of children, women or innocents being killed. On the contrary how was 12 SSG commandos got killed if there were ONLY INNOCENTS IN LAL MASJID??????? Your BS conspiracy theory got busted

Militants needed an excuse to wage a war and they got one with Lal Masjid

And your claim of hundred of civilians death qouted by local journalists, JUI-F, tribals. Please point me at the source where they said "HUNDREDS OF CIVILIANS" died?????


In your Pashtun nationalist rage, Please stop defaming Pakistan army.

ok beta, app ney IMRAN bhai ki gandi underwear dhoo li?
shabash?
IMRAN bhai kam par hien, abhi aur saaman aney wala hai, app key liyaa?
zara jaldi sey hath, chalaoo?
shabash!

Chachaa Na tension liaa kar is age may warna khud AFIC mai parray hona hai tu nai.

It should have been general tariq khan, because the new army chief raheel shareef lacks the experience of command in FATA and north west and is committing some big blunders without taking into consideration the complexities of tribal social infrastructure and the history of the region. In December 2013 army was attacked at khajori, they blamed uzbeks for the attack and retaliated by attacking mir ali town with gunship helicopters which has presence of uzbeks and other foreigners according to reports.They claimed that gunship helicopters chased attackers running on the ground all the way from khajori to mir ali, the question arises how the hell attackers survived the shelling of chasing helicopters above their heads?......The gunship helicopters destroyed the entire bazaar, houses and mosques killing more than hundred civilians according the reports of locals, local journalists, parliamentarians and JUI-F.....This clearly indicated that raheel shareef instructed to army to retaliate with full force and apply collective punishment on all those villages and towns where there are militants. Basically Army has been given permission to reply in the same manner as TTP, also increasing the intensity of collective punishment tactic by army. After the attack army imposed continuous curfew in mir ali, hafiz gul bahadur threatened pak army of consequences and army immediately lifted curfew through political administration..............

Army retaliated in response to bannu attack, again with brutality but on much larger scale, jets were used to bomb the hell out of mir ali, eight other villages of north wairistan and also tirah. The message was very clear by army, for every attack on us(not civilians) we would bomb the hell out of your people (militants plus civilians of waziristan).......Pak army could have used highly planned commando raids on houses of taliban in the middle of night, but jets were used as intention was revenge and terrorize the locals..........Now it seems that Pak army is heading for full scale military operation in north waziristan, the false reports of deaths of adanan rasheed, shaheen bhittani and uzbeks were propagated by pak army and political administration under it, to convince the general public and government that congratulate us on our effective and 100 % precise bombardments and support us in military operation which would relive you from terrorism that is taking place in punjab, balochistan and karachi.

No one is discussing about the consequences. Lets discuss about the consequences of military operation in north waziristan without peace talks.

1- Hafiz gul bahadur.
The most powerful the local Taliban commander in north Waziristan which has tribal base of utmanzai wazirs and dawars, which the haqqanis do not. He is descendant of famous faqir of ipi and is proper aalim so he has huge respect and support among wazirs and dawars. He has peace deal with army since 2007 i guess and is focused on Afghanistan. He is allied with haqqani network and he is also sheltering TTP in north waziristan. . Your peace treaty with him would become null and void in case of full scale military operation in north waziristan. He would join hands with TTP and even uzbeks against you .unlike south waziristan operation of 2009 in which mehusd taliban preferred to retreat due to leadership crisis after death of baitullah mehsud , hafiz gul bahadur would offer you a very solid resistance, he has draws very solid loyalties from tribal elders of utmanzai wazirs.........moreover the area of north waziristan adjacent to afghan border is under his influence , they would simply retreat to afghanistan if overwhelmed by military power.

2- TTP
They are not natives to north waziristan but the area has become their operational base after they lost mehsud territoy to army in 2009. They are dangerous for punjab because they have alliances with all Punjabi militants and sectarian outfits (except lashar e taiba). They have also support of uzbeks. Moreover they are also allied with mangal bagh now. They have operational cooperation with haqqani netwrok in afghanistan.Their new leader fazlullah , has great respect among afghan taliban. They would fight along side hafiz gul bahadur and haqqanis against you and would simply retreat to afghanistan once they lost north waziristan. cross border attacks from kuner and nooristan against army check post would increase by many folds after that.

3-Haqqani network
Long-time allies of the Pakistani ISI. north Waziristan is operational base for them. Also lakki marwat, bannu, and tank are recruiting areas for them. Haqqani have friendhips with both TTP and hafz gul bahadur group. Haqqani network needs sanctuaries in paksiatn to operate successfully in Afghanistan. By denying them space in north wairistan , you are not only making them enemies but also all afghan Taliban groups. Loya pakyita (khost, paktika and paktiya) are strongholds by haqqabi network, they border pakistan. HQ has relationships with Uzbeks, ttp, hafiz gul bahadur group and Taliban of ahmadzai wazirs of south waziristan. Their focus is afghanistan, so they might not engage you miliatrily in north waziristan. But as they would suffer huge losses due to loss of sanctuaries in pakistan, they would provide TTP and hafiz gul bahadur , IMU and Punjabi taliban sanctuaries in loy paktiya.....or even the entire pashtun belt of afghanistan might become strategic depth for TTP.

4_ Ahmadzai wazirs of south waziristan
The taliban groups among them are allied with haqqani network and would support fellow wazirs of north waziristan . Nek mohammad and mullah nazir were their prominent taliban leaders. Like utmanzias, taliban have deep social roots in ahamazai wazirs. Half of their tribe is on other side of durand line so they pose a serious threat. Moreover the mehsud area is sandwiched between wazirs of south wazitistan and of north waziristan. The army in ghost region of mehsuds might face attacks from three sides 1-wana, shakai 2-afghanistan 3-shawal valley of north waziristan................it might prove disaster for pak army.,

There is intense backdoor arm twisting (read diplomatic talks )being conducted with Gul bahadur, Haqqani's through Mullah barader who is in N.Waziristan. If an operation is launched,there is a very greater chance Mullah nazir group and above mentioned groups will try to remain neutral

 

[batmannow]

I had a diarrhea after reading this BS.

After breaking Shakai agreement? You should be careful, because are smart here who have a better memory. Before the killing of nek mohmmad and breaking Shakai Agreement. There was a clause in Shakai agreement not to host foreign elements (Arabs, Uzbeks, Chechens) and expel them from FATA as they were violating the peace. Government repeatedly asked him to implent his end of deal. He denied, didn't care. First sign of dishonesty shown from Nek Mohammad. Then in May or early june 2004. There was a major attack on Pakistan Army check posts in Waziristan. More than two dozen soldiers were killed. Nek mohmmad proudly took credit of this attack. Why nek mohmmad attacked Pak army despite being having peace accord with them?

After this Pak army broke shakai agreement and first drone was used on nek mohmmad. Your BS theory got busted


Show me the proof of hundred of girls killed? Even Pakistani independent judiciary investigation made no mention of children, women or innocents being killed. On the contrary how was 12 SSG commandos got killed if there were ONLY INNOCENTS IN LAL MASJID??????? Your BS conspiracy theory got busted

Militants needed an excuse to wage a war and they got one with Lal Masjid

And your claim of hundred of civilians death qouted by local journalists, JUI-F, tribals. Please point me at the source where they said "HUNDREDS OF CIVILIANS" died?????


In your Pashtun nationalist rage, Please stop defaming Pakistan army.



Chachaa Na tension liaa kar is age may warna khud AFIC mai parray hona hai tu nai.




There is intense backdoor arm twisting (read diplomatic talks )being conducted with Gul bahadur, Haqqani's through Mullah barader who is in N.Waziristan. If an operation is launched,there is a very greater possibily Mullah nazir group and above mentioned groups will try to remain neutral

pappu tu khush hoo gayaa?

 

[Khan_patriot]

new stratgy been applied, in the OPS theater by PAKARMY?
which is simple, no announcements, just hit hard , whenever , where ever you can, with accurate intell?
its the best & great time line, i guss?
will going to bring fast results, for sure!

Yeah you seem to be right, lets hope they sort the shit out soon and dont let the entire country plunge into choas.....Pakistan Zindabad Pak Fauj Paindabad

 

[Secur]

@mafiya The only thing I understand after reading all that , is the Pakistan Army shouldn't operate against the terrorists having safe havens in tribal areas and let them continue this reign of terror , all in the name of Pashtun nationalism and the sensitivities of the people of that area , the people all over Pakistan can go to hell . There's no more message I get from this thread seriously .

 

[Pakistanisage]

Thats where you are wrong, consequences have to be considered after they are our people and we have to live with them after the operation. And also have you forgotten the terror wave after Swat operation. Taliban are not going to fight PA in the opertion, they will just retreat To Afghanistan or migrate to other parts of Pakistan, Its just not that simple.

Wake up and smell the Coffee, Genius.

They may be your people they are not Pakistanis.

When these scumbags slit the throats of our Armed Forces Personnel and blow up our civilians, they are not my people.

I do consider the consequences. The consequences of letting these beasts run our country and dictate to our daughters that they cannot get education and our sisters cannot leave homes.

I want these lowlife scumbags blown to smithereens just like they blow up our people.

 

[Commander T]

It should have been general tariq khan, because the new army chief raheel shareef lacks the experience of command in FATA and north west and is committing some big blunders without taking into consideration the complexities of tribal social infrastructure and the history of the region. In December 2013 army was attacked at khajori, they blamed uzbeks for the attack and retaliated by attacking mir ali town with gunship helicopters which has presence of uzbeks and other foreigners according to reports.They claimed that gunship helicopters chased attackers running on the ground all the way from khajori to mir ali, the question arises how the hell attackers survived the shelling of chasing helicopters above their heads?......The gunship helicopters destroyed the entire bazaar, houses and mosques killing more than hundred civilians according the reports of locals, local journalists, parliamentarians and JUI-F.....This clearly indicated that raheel shareef instructed to army to retaliate with full force and apply collective punishment on all those villages and towns where there are militants. Basically Army has been given permission to reply in the same manner as TTP, also increasing the intensity of collective punishment tactic by army. After the attack army imposed continuous curfew in mir ali, hafiz gul bahadur threatened pak army of consequences and army immediately lifted curfew through political administration..............

Army retaliated in response to bannu attack, again with brutality but on much larger scale, jets were used to bomb the hell out of mir ali, eight other villages of north wairistan and also tirah. The message was very clear by army, for every attack on us(not civilians) we would bomb the hell out of your people (militants plus civilians of waziristan).......Pak army could have used highly planned commando raids on houses of taliban in the middle of night, but jets were used as intention was revenge and terrorize the locals..........Now it seems that Pak army is heading for full scale military operation in north waziristan, the false reports of deaths of adanan rasheed, shaheen bhittani and uzbeks were propagated by pak army and political administration under it, to convince the general public and government that congratulate us on our effective and 100 % precise bombardments and support us in military operation which would relive you from terrorism that is taking place in punjab, balochistan and karachi.

No one is discussing about the consequences. Lets discuss about the consequences of military operation in north waziristan without peace talks.

1- Hafiz gul bahadur.
The most powerful the local Taliban commander in north Waziristan which has tribal base of utmanzai wazirs and dawars, which the haqqanis do not. He is descendant of famous faqir of ipi and is proper aalim so he has huge respect and support among wazirs and dawars. He has peace deal with army since 2007 i guess and is focused on Afghanistan. He is allied with haqqani network and he is also sheltering TTP in north waziristan. . Your peace treaty with him would become null and void in case of full scale military operation in north waziristan. He would join hands with TTP and even uzbeks against you .unlike south waziristan operation of 2009 in which mehusd taliban preferred to retreat due to leadership crisis after death of baitullah mehsud , hafiz gul bahadur would offer you a very solid resistance, he has draws very solid loyalties from tribal elders of utmanzai wazirs.........moreover the area of north waziristan adjacent to afghan border is under his influence , they would simply retreat to afghanistan if overwhelmed by military power.

2- TTP
They are not natives to north waziristan but the area has become their operational base after they lost mehsud territoy to army in 2009. They are dangerous for punjab because they have alliances with all Punjabi militants and sectarian outfits (except lashar e taiba). They have also support of uzbeks. Moreover they are also allied with mangal bagh now. They have operational cooperation with haqqani netwrok in afghanistan.Their new leader fazlullah , has great respect among afghan taliban. They would fight along side hafiz gul bahadur and haqqanis against you and would simply retreat to afghanistan once they lost north waziristan. cross border attacks from kuner and nooristan against army check post would increase by many folds after that.

3-Haqqani network
Long-time allies of the Pakistani ISI. north Waziristan is operational base for them. Also lakki marwat, bannu, and tank are recruiting areas for them. Haqqani have friendhips with both TTP and hafz gul bahadur group. Haqqani network needs sanctuaries in paksiatn to operate successfully in Afghanistan. By denying them space in north wairistan , you are not only making them enemies but also all afghan Taliban groups. Loya pakyita (khost, paktika and paktiya) are strongholds by haqqabi network, they border pakistan. HQ has relationships with Uzbeks, ttp, hafiz gul bahadur group and Taliban of ahmadzai wazirs of south waziristan. Their focus is afghanistan, so they might not engage you miliatrily in north waziristan. But as they would suffer huge losses due to loss of sanctuaries in pakistan, they would provide TTP and hafiz gul bahadur , IMU and Punjabi taliban sanctuaries in loy paktiya.....or even the entire pashtun belt of afghanistan might become strategic depth for TTP.

4_ Ahmadzai wazirs of south waziristan
The taliban groups among them are allied with haqqani network and would support fellow wazirs of north waziristan . Nek mohammad and mullah nazir were their prominent taliban leaders. Like utmanzias, taliban have deep social roots in ahamazai wazirs. Half of their tribe is on other side of durand line so they pose a serious threat. Moreover the mehsud area is sandwiched between wazirs of south wazitistan and of north waziristan. The army in ghost region of mehsuds might face attacks from three sides 1-wana, shakai 2-afghanistan 3-shawal valley of north waziristan................it might prove disaster for pak army.,

Hafiz gul bahadur. >>>>>>> he is not sheltering ttp but some groups related to ttp and him in common.....
Haqqani network+Ahmadzai wazirs of south waziristan>>>>>>> all the three above mentioned groups will not go alongside TTp not atleast completely, may be gave them some amunation but will definately not fight a full fledge war against army for just 1 and only reason....
if such a thing happens, pakistan will dramatically increase coopration with USA and may be Afghan army this will in result gave an extreme pressure to all above groups.......and they will dramatically loose all support from pakistan,as per theory afghan taliban including haqqanis are fighting war in afghanistan because they have safe operational bases in pakistan, once they loose their bases there will be no where they can go and they know it very very well, as well as pakistan and usa knows that. that is why usa was asking operation in waziristan... because after that talibans situation will be like a cat in a closed room with many hungry dogs.......other thing is there were some places in waziristan where army could not go due to peace agreements and where ttp made its hide outs, now in this case there will be no place where army will not be able to go........and in this case pak may allow usa in waziristan and this will dramatically change the game as drones from one side and US+PAk army on ground will brutually kill talibs.... and all the groups over there knows that very very well...... now as USA is leaving afghanistan , and ISI will have immense influence in afghanistan in post usa era , every group will think twice before hitting pak army or ISI becuase as for as i have heard, last time when USSR left afghnistan, ISI locked his enemies in containers and sprayed bullets with machine guns on containers......and every party knows that this can happen again.............let the operation began....

 

[American Pakistani]

Useless IMO.

Unless they seal/fence/build a wall on Pak-Afghan border all operations will be failure. It is wastage of precious life & money...instead use that money to start constructing a wall.

 

[Secur]

It should have been general tariq khan, because the new army chief raheel shareef lacks the experience of command in FATA and north west and is committing some big blunders without taking into consideration the complexities of tribal social infrastructure and the history of the region.

No complexities of tribal social infrastructure , their history , their culture or their ways of life can or should be used as justification to let the terrorists continue their acts of terror throughout the country and as an excuse to not operate against them . Nobody will think about that , even for a moment before dealing against terrorists . Its about time some people get their priorities right and their loyalties thought again . The terrorists will not be allowed to blow up everywhere and kill people indiscriminately and terrorize the nation , enough is enough .

the false reports of deaths of adanan rasheed, shaheen bhittani and uzbeks were propagated by pak army and political administration under it

Should we take your word , as always ? The usual premise on which your whole arguments are usually based on ?

Maybe the civilians can stop being in bed with terrorists and not provide money , houses and resources to them , because the moment they do , they are fair targets .

After the attack army imposed continuous curfew in mir ali, hafiz gul bahadur threatened pak army of consequences and army immediately lifted curfew through political administration..............

Load of BS ! The all powerful Hafiz Gul Bahadur couldn't stop the army from bombing the terrorist hideouts but somehow put enough on them to lift the curfew ?

 

[Marwat Khan Lodhi]

Hafiz gul bahadur. >>>>>>> he is not sheltering ttp but some groups related to ttp and him in common.....
Haqqani network+Ahmadzai wazirs of south waziristan>>>>>>> all the three above mentioned groups will not go alongside TTp not atleast completely, may be gave them some amunation but will definately not fight a full fledge war against army for just 1 and only reason....
if such a thing happens, pakistan will dramatically increase coopration with USA and may be Afghan army this will in result gave an extreme pressure to all above groups.......and they will dramatically loose all support from pakistan,as per theory afghan taliban including haqqanis are fighting war in afghanistan because they have safe operational bases in pakistan, once they loose their bases there will be no where they can go and they know it very very well, as well as pakistan and usa knows that. that is why usa was asking operation in waziristan... because after that talibans situation will be like a cat in a closed room with many hungry dogs.......other thing is there were some places in waziristan where army could not go due to peace agreements and where ttp made its hide outs, now in this case there will be no place where army will not be able to go........and in this case pak may allow usa in waziristan and this will dramatically change the game as drones from one side and US+PAk army on ground will brutually kill talibs.... and all the groups over there knows that very very well...... now as USA is leaving afghanistan , and ISI will have immense influence in afghanistan in post usa era , every group will think twice before hitting pak army or ISI becuase as for as i have heard, last time when USSR left afghnistan, ISI locked his enemies in containers and sprayed bullets with machine guns on containers......and every party knows that this can happen again.............let the operation began....

Hafiz gul bahadur would certainly not tolerate a full fledged military operation in his territory, Jets bombardments and Tank's shelling wont discriminate between a TTP fighter and Gul bahadur's fighter..............unless gul bahadur sahab and thousands of his fighters take permission from army and sit in some neutral ground and watch his territory getting blitzed. This is not the character of wazirs and in pashto it becomes a life-long "peghor". He is a type of person who even get pissed on army's retaliation, how can he tolerate a full fledged military operation in his area and against his people?. North waziristan is not under TTP, it is under commanded of gul bahadur and has support of utmanzi wazirs and dawars. You can not do operation there without first breaking the non-aggression pact with Gul Bahadur.
Haqqanis are guests of utmanzai wazirs, they have to move some where else once operation is started. . There are three scenarios for them
1- Pak army decides to get rid of them. They are either asked to leave or ready to die. In that case you are making them your enemy and in extension afghan taliban. They would lost miranashah and quetta and its true that they would lost great deal of operational capabilities but they would recover to great extent after American withdrawal from afghanistan. They would perhaps never engage you militarily but would provide sanctuaries to TTP all over the Afghanistan.. you can not isolate Haqqani within Afghanistan because not only they would be in contact with TTP and its allies based in pakistan but also their other sympathizers specially JUI-F and their strongholds.
2-You spare Haqqanis , maintain treaty with Hafiz gul bahadur and go against TTP only. It wont work, TTP would simply retreat to Afghanistan and adjacent kurram and orakzai. After some time they would return again, attacking and ambushing your military check posts and caravans.
3- You spare haqqanis but go against both TTP and Gul bahadur. By doing this haqqani people would lose credibility and respect among local wazirs.......they would be asked to leave north waziristan.

 

[Secur]

@Pak-one

So we leave all the terrorists and let them kill our people , isn't that the message that you are trying to give , all along ?

 

[Marwat Khan Lodhi]

@Secur
I understand that anger and emotions are running high on this forum and tolerance level has dropped , this discussion shouldnt end up with "you terrorist sympathizer , you afghani, tribals this and that". My topic is simple "consequences of north waziristan operation"

Lets have some meaningful and contributory discussion.

1- Pak army can not conduct military operation in this or next month, winter is extreme in mountains of north waziristan, there are snowfalls in many areas. It is said that in march it would happen Waziristan offensive likely in March By mir ali incident ,recent aerial bombardments and all the hype in the media, you have signaled TTP that operation is imminent. By the time you go against them in march after intense preaparation.......you would find no TTP fighters in NW to engage you in combat,..........you are fighting with guerrilla fighters, they wont engage you when you have jets, tanks, gunship helicopters and tens of thousands of troops......This happened in south waziristan, most of the TTP had already fled when you arrived with huge army to engage them in combat and had only installed IEDs to annoy you.. In north waziristan you have to confront Gul bahadur and Haqqani, not TTP who are already displaced since 2009 operation.

2- Militarily you would be able to occupy north waziristan (though with much greater losses than previous operations if you go against all militant groups). There would be a relative calm in the country for several months or even an year or two and then the attacks of TTP would intensify again. You are dealing with an ideology, not some tribesmen. The support for taliban not only comes from various deobandi organizations and parties across the country but there is wide perception in pashtun belt that intelligence agencies are playing double games. may be its not true but you cant rule out the possibility of penetration of ISI by taliban......how can you trust a deobandi pashtun in ISI? i have seen many bearded ones among them.Adnan rasheed is one example, there could be more leaking info to taliban about timings and movements of army.

 

[Secur]

@Secur
I understand that anger and emotions are running high on this forum and tolerance level has dropped , this discussion shouldnt end up with "you terrorist sympathizer , you afghani, tribals this and that". My topic is simple "consequences of north waziristan operation"

Lets have some meaningful and contributory discussion.

1- Pak army can not conduct military operation in this or next month, winter is extreme in mountains of north waziristan, there are snowfalls in many areas. It is said that in march it would happen Waziristan offensive likely in March By mir ali incident ,recent aerial bombardments and all the hype in the media, you have signaled TTP that operation is imminent. By the time you go against them in march after intense preaparation.......you would find no TTP fighters in NW to engage you in combat,..........you are fighting with guerrilla fighters, they wont engage you when you have jets, tanks, gunship helicopters and tens of thousands of troops......This happened in south waziristan, most of the TTP had already fled when you arrived with huge army to engage them in combat and had only installed IEDs to annoy you.. In north waziristan you have to confront Gul bahadur and Haqqani, not TTP who are already displaced since 2009 operation.

2- Militarily you would be able to occupy north waziristan (though with much greater losses than previous operations if you go against all militant groups). There would be a relative calm in the country for several months or even an year or two and then the attacks of TTP would intensify again. You are dealing with an ideology, not some tribesmen. The support for taliban not only comes from various deobandi organizations and parties across the country but there is wide perception in pashtun belt that intelligence agencies are playing double games. may be its not true but you cant rule out the possibility of penetration of ISI by taliban......how can you trust a deobandi pashtun in ISI? i have seen many bearded ones among them.Adnan rasheed is one example, there could be more leaking info to taliban about timings and movements of army.

Yes it has and you know the reason why . There's a limit to our tolerance to these daily bomb blasts and indiscriminate killing . The country cant run like this and the federation faces a grave danger today . This discussion isn't going to end up with that , but I ask you one thing , what is the most basic messages you are trying to give ?

If its the tribal socioeconomic , history , cultural sensitivities , affiliations , blood bonds and other things on which basis , we shouldn't operate against terrorists , then sadly no , this is no excuse , none at all . The country's going to the gutters and we aren't going to let it get past the point of no return just because some people might get against us .

If its the thing that Gul Bahadur or Haqqani Network will go against us , then they might as well now , we have no use for some assets or friends , who are still collaborating with Taliban and providing them help to operate against us or will in case we send our forces to clear that area . Do you think that this makes sense ? Whats the use of any non aggression pact if the participants are actively working against the country ?

I believe that it was really foolish on part of army and Govt to announce the operation beforehand and yes it will reduce its effectiveness , a surprise attack would have been the way to go . I know we are dealing with an ideology which doesn't inflict only the tribal people but sooner or later , we will have to fight it or let it destroy the country and we will choose the former at some point , so why not now ? I am well aware of the radicalization in the country and how TTP is garnering support and funds from a common Pakistani . Let the army occupy North Waziristan and deal with the terrorists from the other side afterwards . This is the only way left now - the only choice , either that or we wait for the Taliban Sharia or football stadium style justices to be repeated in Pakistan .

 

[FaujHistorian]

lets discuss consequences of this operation,

lets not discuss of the consequences of not conducting operation and continue this disease to fester?

Well said!