FAS and Kristensen are still living in 1975. This is 2012. China has been busy during the last 40 years. According to my count, China has 1,924 deployed thermonuclear warheads.
China has a minimum of 1,924 thermonuclear warheads. Here's why.
Let's see whether my minimum estimate of 1,924 Chinese thermonuclear warheads makes sense.
1. From the DF-31As alone, there should be 144 ICBM thermonuclear warheads. The DF-31A was deployed in 2007. Add 12 new DF-31As for each subsequent year. Now multiply 48 ICBMs by 3 MIRVs for each missile.
China showed us 12 DF-31A TELs at the 2009 Chinese military parade.
We know China launches satellites on 15 to 20 Long March/DF-31A rockets each year. Britain`s International Institute of Strategic Studies' claim that China is adding a brigade or 12 DF-31As to its arsenal each year looks reasonable. Since China manufactures 15 to 20 Long March rockets each year, China can easily produce 12 DF-31A missiles each year.
2. From the DF-5s, there are another 20 ICBMs with 4 to 5 megatons each. Richard Fisher has reported on the deployment of a DF-5B with 5 or 6 MIRVs. We do not know whether the DF-5B is a new missile or a retrofitted and upgraded DF-5.
Since we're trying to make a reasonable minimum estimate, we will just assume the DF-5Bs are upgrades of the existing DF-5s. The sum of 20 upgraded DF-5s is 100 warheads.
DF-5 had its first flight in 1971 and has been in service since 1981.
The Pentagon claims China built 20 DF-5s and then just stopped. Essentially, the Pentagon is claiming China never built a single additional DF-5 for 30 years from 1981 to 2011. Who believes that China has been an angel and did not build another DF-5 for thirty years?!
3. There is at least a dozen DF-31, which can reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the northwestern United States. This is another 12 ICBM warheads. Since the DF-31As are reportedly MIRVed, we will assume the DF-31s are also MIRVed with 3 warheads each. The total is 36 DF-31 warheads.
Here, we see nine DF-31s; which were first seen at China's 1999 military parade.
The Pentagon claims China only built 12 DF-31s by 1999 and just stopped. Let me get this straight. China spent billions of dollars to develop its most advanced solid-fueled ICBM by 1999 and only built 12?! Are you going to believe the Pentagon propaganda?
An U.S. general testified in front of Congress that China was at least 10 years away from building a conventional ASAT missile in 2007. That very afternoon, China successfully destroyed a weather satellite with an ASAT weapon. So much for military intelligence at the Pentagon.
4. According to Jane's Defence, the "Chinese are believed to have started the design and development of the Dong Feng-41 (DF-41) in 1986." It's been over 15 years. China has shown us an operational and deployed DF-31A. There is no reason to believe that the DF-41 has not been fully developed and become operational. It's just a longer and slightly wider missile.
The DF-41 could easily vault China into eventual parity with the United States in the total number of warheads. Ten DF-41s result in 100 150-kiloton warheads. One hundred DF-41s would increase China's nuclear arsenal by 1,000 ICBM warheads.
Since 1986, according to Jane's Defence, China has been developing the DF-41 ICBM (which is capable of carrying 10 MIRVs).
According to GlobalSecurity, "it is anticipated that the DF-41 will be delivered to the 2d Artillery around the year 2010." In other words, the DF-41 has probably already been deployed.
Why should we believe GlobalSecurity? Let's use our common sense. The DF-41 has been in development for over 15 years. It can't stay in development for perpetuity. Given China's previous mastery of the DF-31 and DF-31A, fifteen years should be plenty of time to build a longer-range DF-41.
5. No one knows how many ICBMs China is hiding in its 5,000km Underground Great Wall. I think a sensible person would not claim that China spent ten years building the Underground Great Wall to only place an ICBM every 100km. Similarly, most reasonable people would not claim that China is hiding one ICBM every 1km.
As a rough estimate, a reasonable person would most likely assume that China is hiding one ICBM every 10km. 5,000km / 10km per hidden ICBM = 500 ICBMs hidden in China's Underground Great Wall. Assuming each ICBM is MIRVed with three warheads, I estimate China is hiding 1,500 ICBM warheads in its Underground Great Wall.
China spent ten years building its "'Underground Great Wall' that stretches for more than 5,000km in the Hebei region of northern China."
The Pentagon currently assigns ZERO ICBMs to China's Underground Great Wall. As best as I can understand, their logic is "well, we can't see it...so we're going to say there are no ICBMs there." Seriously, what kind of military assessment is that? It's just as bad as the Pentagon's ASAT assessment.
In this photograph, we see two Chinese DF-5 ballistic missiles (with 12,000 to 15,000km range) on military trains being transported in an underground tunnel. The Pentagon claims there are no Chinese ballistic missiles in the 5,000km Underground Great Wall. Do your eyes agree?
The 5,000km underground complex was specifically built for a Chinese thermonuclear counterstrike.
I estimate there are probably 500 ICBMs hidden in the 5,000km facility in Hebei, China. I want to mention that China doesn't need 500 launch silos. A missile can be fired from a silo and another missile can be reloaded in its place. Let's assume China plans to reload five missiles for each silo. This means China would only need 100 silos over a 5,000km distance.
I can assure you the claim of only 20 Chinese ICBM silos is ludicrous. The length of a DF-21 IRBM is 11m. The length of a DF-31 ICBM is 13m. If a silo is dug a little deeper and wider, it can accommodate an ICBM; instead of an IRBM.
In the following video, which encompasses only a few mountains, I counted at least 30 silos. We know from a Chinese-state television CCTV broadcast on March 24, 2008 that China has built a 5,000km (or 3,000-mile) missile complex under a mountain range. If a few mountains contain 30 silos, imagine how many silos are hidden along 5,000km.
6. China has four Type 094 Jin-class ballistic missile submarines (SSBN). Each Type 094 SSBN carries 12 JL-2 SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles). Since the Julang-2 is based on DF-31 technology, we will follow Jane Defence's report that the JL-2 is MIRVed with 3 or 4 warheads. Using our standard 3 MIRVs for a DF-31A or JL-2 missile, we arrive at 144 warheads (e.g. 4 Type 094 SSBNs x 12 JL-2s per SSBN x 3 MIRVs per JL-2).
Therefore, China's four Type 094 SSBNs carry a total of 144 JL-2 warheads that can strike portions of the United States.
Here, we see two Type 094 Jin-class ballistic missile submarines (SSBN). Two more SSBNs for a total of four Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs seem perfectly reasonable.
