Chinese Naval J-10 Spotted in the open

[applesauce]

Let's be pragmatic. China is not going to jump from #5 to #2 this decade. (maybe #3 in the next)

Best estimate:

2014/2015

India 40kt : China 50kt

2017/2018

India 50kt : China 60kt : UK 65kt : France 70kt

China won't build many as...

1) ...It has 0 ASW capabilitiy. It'd just be a big bull's eye for the Indonesian, Vietnamese and Indian kilos. The Chinese'll probably make more if they experience a breakthrough in better sonar and torpedoe technology.

2) ...No one sane would build nuclear powered carriers for garden issues, in your case -- Taiwan and the Spartlys. The cost won't be justified, if not for reaching far (Middle East) into other people's pockets with the possibility of not being able to dock at a trusted nearby port for resupply (not making any reference to some country that has 11 of them).

There's nothing hurdling you from building 100kt conventional carriers. It's just that by the time you have the needs for them, you'd already be finding yourself devestating homes and a need to stay outside of those houses so the residence won't be able to take their vengance, which prompts a need for perpetual surveillance.

hmmm at best by 2020 china can have 3 carriers though i doubt it.
china has asw abilities their just not world class but this can change its not 30 years behind
also china wants to operates out to second island chain and indian ocean that would warrant large carriers
varyag will be online and maybe a conventional domestic one 50-60kt i think, nuclear will have to wait to next decade i believe, 100kt probably will be unnecessary.