This is my blog post on future China-India relations. As you can see, things are very bad and could destabilize even more.
China's defense strategy should be to achieve its strategic interests in 5 theaters: Northeast, East, South, South Asia and Middle East.
Northeast: Hold the Line and Counterattack
China's strategic interest in the Northeast theater is to directly threaten and put pressure on Japan's home islands and dominate the Korean peninsula against a potentially hostile South Korea. At sea, China must defend the Yellow Sea and counter any pressure from US naval presence in South Korea.
To achieve these goals, China should base large numbers of long range artillery rockets (such as WS-2D) in North Korea that can blanket Tokyo in case of a war.
It should also guarantee North Korea's security by supplying it with weapons, advisers or even direct military intervention in case of a war with the South.
It should also counter the US naval presence in South Korea with PLAN. In case of a war, remove the US naval presence by moving PLA elite armor T-99A2 into South Korea and put into power a China-friendly government.
East: Hold the Line and Counterattack
China's strategic interest in the Eastern theater is to control the East China Sea and support Ryukyu independence.
To achieve these goals, China should lease a PLAN base in Taiwan from the nationalist government if politically feasible. Of course, it cannot tolerate any move toward de jure independence by Taiwan.
It should also have an amphibious strike force of 6 071 LPD that can land about 10,000 troops and armor on the Ryukyus or even Japan's home islands.
South: Project Power and Deter
China's strategic interest in the Southern theater is to have a naval base further South in the South China Sea and eventually control access to Malacca Straits from the Eastern Side.
To achieve these goals, China should lease a PLAN base in Cambodia and build a railroad from China through Laos to Cambodia.
It should also deploy an amphibious strike force of 6 071 LPD to simultaneously evict in a quick operation the military presence of South East Asian countries on China's islands in the South China Sea.
If Vietnam tries to go nuclear, it should also quickly take down Hanoi and control the entire Vietnam coastline down to Ho Chi Ming City (Saigon). Set up a China-friendly government in Vietnam.
South Asia: With Help from Pakistan, Regime Change India
China's strategic interest in the South Asia theater is to contain, weaken, cripple and finally break apart India because it appears certain the Hindu civilization has decided to oppose the Chinese civilization in the 21st century.
To achieve these goals, China should complete the railroad into Pakistan through Kashmir. Station PLA infantry expeditionary units in Kashmir ready to overrun India positions. Station elite PLA armor T-99A2 on the plains of South Asia ready to overrun India positions. Station a giant PLAN fleet at Gwadar threatening to land combat marines on India's western coastline.
It should also complete the railroad into Nepal. Station PLA infantry on the Nepal-Indian border ready to overrun India positions.
It should also build up troops levels at mountain passes in the Eastern Sector facing India. The Indians expect to move heavy artillery on to the Himalayan plains to counter China.
If India refuses to cease its hostility to China, China should drive elite PLA armor to New Delhi, surround the city, overthrow the Indian government and install a pro-Pakistan / pro-China government in New Delhi. The map of South Asia can be redrawn to form new buffer states for Pakistan and China.
This armored drive against New Delhi should be supported by simulatenous infantry attacks in Kashmir, Sikkim and Tawang supported by J-10 air superiority and Z-10A helicopter close air support. The first major engagement of the war should be a massive Chinese cruise missile CJ-10 and EMP attack against the main strength of the Indian army defending the capital city.
Indian army nuclear missile units should be hunted down by satellite reconnaisance and H-6K strategic bomber cruise missile strikes. The Chinese ballistic missile defense system successfully tested a year ago should be fully developed and deployed in Tibet.
Simultaneous with the land war, PLAN submarines (the new Type 095 class) based from Gwadar should enforce a shipping blockade against the west coast of Southern India. PLAN submarines based from Myanmar should enforce a shipping blockade against the East coast of Southern India.
Middle East: Support Iran
China's strategic interest in the Middle East theater is to support countries opposed to US domination and persuade Middle East oil producers to sell their oil in RMB not dollars, thus fatally undermining the US dollar.
A US-led war against Iran by 2013 is very likely if a Republican president is voted in in 2012. From the recent Wikileaks episode, we can see Iran can build a basic nuclear deterrent arsenal with nuclear warhead and medium-range missile by about 2013.
To achieve these goals, China should build a railway from Xinjiang in China through Central Asia to Iran's northeast. Through this railway, supply Iran with air defence weapons like HQ-9 and coastal defense weapons like C-803 to defend against US airstrikes or naval blockade. This railway could also transport energy supplies from Iran to China if the US imposes a blockade through the Gulf of Aden.
If Iran wants a basic nuclear deterrent against Israel, China should not get in its way.
China should also form an RMB denominated oil trading bloc with Iran and persuade other Middle East countries to join. This will give China an economic advantage of having the preeminent reserve currency.
