LKJ86
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Actually Ukraine war also teach us that Ukraine doesn't has anything to counter Russian's Kalibir or something missiles attack from their sub. And have to pay a huge price that their supply line being hit periodically. And they're just hide under Black sea. Not SCS nor East China Sea.You just answered your question: Russia paid an hefty price by staying too close to the shore, didn't they? Even when they are supposed to have eliminated the Ukrainian naval capabilities in the first week of war, their own navy get wack near the coast.
You are extremely confident of US ability to operate subs within 2000km from China's shore, when China's land-based ASW capability isn't like 5 years ago. Your "quiestest" subs are not going to be able to operate freely when the sea and air near the coast are contested, and you act like there is some magic wand US subs can wave that guarantees 100% safe from "undersea mountain" near Chinese coast.
If that's not unrealistic optimism, I don't know what is.
When all the surface vessels of the USN are gone, do you think their subs alone can withstand all the bombardment from the sky?
The modern drones with strong ASW ability with AI will be the worst nightmare even for the most silent nuclear subs.
The LA class are all close to the age of retirement, and the metal structure of the hull cannot hold any longer when its lifespan is close to the end, and no way it can beat the most recent nuclear subs built by China.
Heck, the USN even treats its elite nuclear sub the Seawolf class like cr@p, and if they would ever try to use the older LA class to poke China, it will turn out to be an even bigger embarrassment for them.
The problem is that they also have land based military assets near you. From Okinawa, Taiwan, Miyako Strait, etc. You can flattened them with your long range arti and missiles, but they can also destroy your high value land based assets when both sides bombard each others. Who know what they will destroy in your shore when missiles exchange between the strait is happening. Will that moment weakened your anti sub capability, to give access to US Subs to SCS freely? Or your vital long range radar that can give access to US air assets to bombard China? Nobody know.