China's nuclear warheads should match the US and Russia

[below_freezing]

What do you mean advanced US fighters. the F-15J and F-2 is all they got at the moment. There is nothing revolutionarily better in Japan, that Russia does not have. Bringing up Iraq is meaningless, their overall level of national development is very low as well as morale. Don't forget, Iraq even lost to Iran at the peak of its power.

that article is US propaganda IMO. iraq had already lost air superiority. it doesn't matter what happens on the ground afterwards. in terms of quantity AND quality, the USN and USAF easily overwhelms iraqi air force and from then on a few soldiers with pistols could've walked into baghdad unopposed.

 

[Martian2]

What do you mean advanced US fighters. the F-15J and F-2 is all they got at the moment. There is nothing revolutionarily better in Japan, that Russia does not have. Bringing up Iraq is meaningless, their overall level of national development is very low as well as morale. Don't forget, Iraq even lost to Iran at the peak of its power.

In my opinion, combat-proven advanced fourth-generation U.S. fighters are superior to Russian fighters that are comparable only on paper. Are you claiming that you think Russia will win a conventional war over the Northern Territories/Kuril Islands against technologically-advanced Japan (e.g. $5.1 trillion-dollar GDP), which also possesses an economy four times larger than Russia (e.g. $1.2 trillion)?

The Russian military will be flying planes built by a decrepit military-industrial-complex. See fifth article below.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Air_Force#Events_since_2000

"The Air Force continues to suffer from a lack of resources for pilot training. In the 1990s Russian pilots achieved approximately 10% of the flight hours of the United States Air Force. The 2007 edition of the IISS Military Balance listed pilots of tactical aviation flying 20–25 hours a year, 61st Air Army pilots (former Military Transport Aviation), 60 hours a year, and Army Aviation under VVS control 55 hours a year.[9]
...
On 5 June 2009, the Chief of the General Staff, Nikolai Makarov said of the Russian Air Force that "They can run bombing missions only in daytime with the sun shining, but they miss their targets anyway".[19] Maj. Gen. Pavel Androsov said that Russia's long-range bombers would be upgraded in 2009 with the aim of being able to hit within 20 meters of their targets.[20]

In February 2009, the Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that 200 of the 291 MiG-29s currently in service across all Russian air arms were unsafe and would have to be permanently grounded.[21] This action would remove from service about a third of Russia's total fighter force, some 650 aircraft."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-to-rearm-military-as-nato-expands-1646800.html

"Russia to re-arm military as Nato expands

Reuters
Tuesday, 17 March 2009

President Dmitry Medvedev, who seeks to improve chilly ties with the United States, today said Russia would rearm its military and boost nuclear forces because US-led Nato is expanding towards Russia's borders.
...
Medvedev said the large-scale modernisation of the army and navy would begin in 2011."

http://amgordon.newsvine.com/_news/2009/03/18/2560117-russia-they-like-us-they-like-us-not
"Mar 18, 2009 ... Russia is increasingly having to deal with a military that is underpaid, underfunded, and falling apart. They also have a world stage to ..."

http://www.1913intel.com/2009/12/27...-suggestive-of-nuclear-first-strike-doctrine/

"Weak Russian Military Suggestive of Nuclear First Strike Doctrine
Posted by Matt in December 27th, 2009

The bottom line is that Russia reserves the right to launch a nuclear preemptive strike to protect itself and its allies.

Russia’s military is falling apart, therefore, it’s becoming clear that Russia will increasingly rely on its nuclear weapons for protection. This will include threats and/or preemptive nuclear strikes.

Therefore, Russia now announced its right to use nuclear weapons not only in case of aggression against itself, but also as a “response to a threat of using (or usage) against itself and (or) its allies of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, as well as a response to the aggression with regular weapons in the situations critical for the Russian Federation."

As Its Military Industry Withers, Russia Looks to Buy Arms Abroad

"As Its Military Industry Withers, Russia Looks to Buy Arms Abroad

MOSCOW -- Ask a Russian what the country makes well, and the answer, more often than not, will be the Kalashnikov rifle.
Russian-made cars may be rickety, and its passenger airplanes such fuel-guzzlers that even the country's flag carrier, AeRoflot, has switched to a mostly Western fleet. But Russians could always point with pride to the fearsome reputation of their weapons -- the Kalashnikov and the MIG and Sukhoi fighter jets.
Indeed, until recently, Russia's military exports were second in volume only to the United States.
But in today's Russia, the $40 billion military equipment industry is withering alongside civilian manufacturing.
Once-legendary Russian weapons are suffering embarrassing quality-control problems. Algeria, for example, recently returned a shipment of MIG jets because of defects.
An aircraft carrier refurbishment for India is four years late and hundreds of millions of dollars over budget.
In perhaps the most poignant sign of trouble, Russia's own military is now voting with its rubles: Moscow is in talks with France to buy four French amphibious assault ships. If a deal is struck, it would be Russia's most significant acquisition of foreign weapons since World War II.
The purchase of Mistral-class ships would be ''the most salient example of the deficiencies in the Russian defense industry,'' said Dmitri Trenin, a military analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, a policy research organization."

 

[SinoIndusFriendship]

and if japan shoots an IRBM at china, the end result is japan sinks beneath the ocean while china survives, and there is one less race of idiots to worry about. they aren't stupid and irrational.

and what do you mean the russians have no answers to the Kongo destroyers. they have the Tu-95 which can carry P-270 Moskit, P-800 Oniks, Kh-35U, etc.

Russia vs Japan will be a close battle. The challenge is the center of population is very far from one another (Moscow-region vs Tokyo-Yokohama-region). Even though Russia has a large land mass, it's population (especially Slavs) are highly concentrated in a few cities. Likewise with Japan, most live on Honshu.

Russia used to have an impressive naval fleet and airforce, both of which now has decayed. If this was 30 years ago, Russia would have Air and Sea advantage against Japan ---> but now Japan has a more impressive Navy and airforce are comparable.

The one advantage Russia has over most countries is its impressive nuclear missile stockpiles. How many of those are fitted on modern missiles is unknown, but the sheer magnitude frightens even the Americans who can't sleep because of them.

The danger of waging even conventional war against any nuclear power is that they will escalate it to a full-blown nuke war. Thus, only proxy wars are waged.

What Japan could do (and probably is doing "secretly") is quietly refining it's spent fuel bi-products into weapons grade uranium and plutonium. I have no doubt Japan has hundreds if not thousands of secret nukes (but can't disclose them for fear of USA). In this realistic scenario, both Russia and Japan are nuke powers with ~equal population in concentrated areas.

As comrade Below_Freezing rightly pointed out, because of the close distance between China and Japan, and the fact that China's population is 12X that of Japan and spread all over the world ----- China will suffer massive damage (perhaps hundreds of millions dead), but the Land of the Rising Sun would cease to exist.... period. And China would still have sufficient 2nd (subs, mobile launchers, silos) and 3rd (great wall tunnel) strike capability to decimate ALL of the remaining nuke powers!! Only 3 countries possess this ability, USA-Russia-China.

 

[SinoIndusFriendship]

In my opinion, combat-proven advanced fourth-generation U.S. fighters are superior to Russian fighters that are comparable only on paper. Are you claiming that you think Russia will win a conventional war over the Northern Territories/Kuril Islands against technologically-advanced Japan (e.g. $5.1 trillion-dollar GDP), which also possesses an economy four times larger than Russia (e.g. $1.2 trillion)?

....

Comrade, the significance of a large economy becomes neglible in the event of nuclear war (where instant 'gratification'). It's only important in a conventional war that can drag on for years and years.

 

[Martian2]

In my view, China is taking a middle-path toward nuclear parity with the U.S. and Russia. China is not engaging in a rapid nuclear-force modernization and expansion. However, China is also not sitting still.

Instead, China is slowly creeping up on the Americans and Russians. China has built two new Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs, each carrying 12 Julang-2 SLBMs. Also, China has built more road-mobile ICBMs. This seems to be a fair compromise that the Americans can accept. The U.S. won't complain if China adds approximately 10 to 30 ICBMs a year to her nuclear arsenal.

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blog...79a7Post:3294914a-e123-4971-9950-a0441f51ef5d

"76 Megatons In The Big Parade
Posted by Bill Sweetman at 9/3/2009 7:03 AM CDT

Five new weapon models, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, conventional cruise missiles and medium-range and short-range conventional ballistic missiles, will be shown officially for the first time in China's National Day parade in Beijing in October 1, according to Xinhua. The last such parade was ten years ago, on the 50th anniversary of Communist Party rule.

Quoting an expert from the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Second Artillery Force, responsible for nuclear deterrence and conventional ballistic missiles, the news agency reported that the new weapons would be "second generation" types, already in service with the PLA.

The big potential revelations would be the Dongfeng 41 road-mobile ICBM and the Julang 2 sea-launched ballistic missile - widely discussed outside China, but never seen before.


Chinese Internet via Armscontrolwonk

This month's DTI - to go live on the website later today - carries a report from a late-July conference on deterrence in Omaha and my op-ed on nuclear weapons. Former deputy defense secretary John Hamre's comment in Omaha that nuclear weapons have been "the subject of a successful campaign of stigmatization" in the West, but not elsewhere, is underscored by the report of the Beijing parade: it's literally impossible to conceive of a parade of nuclear missiles down Pennsylvania Avenue or Whitehall.

I reported some of the news from Omaha here at the time. PLA Col. Yao Yunzhu explained that China's nuclear policy is based on "no first use" and is strictly retaliatory, in response to a nuclear attack. "China differs in this respect from American strategists who talk about nuclear warfighting or escalation control", she added.

China, she said, works towards a "lean and effective" deterrent and will modernize its strategic forces to improve their survivability - hence the development of road- and rail-mobile weapons. Moreover, opaqueness - deliberately concealing its capabilities - is Chinese policy. "With no-first-use and a small arsenal, China depends on opaqueness to keep its deterrent credible, to induce uncertainty in an enemy's cost-benefit calculations."

As I reported a few weeks ago, Col Yunzhu cautioned that ballistic missile defense could represent a problem for China and could drive it to expand its force. Interestingly, a couple of weeks later - at the Space & Missile Defense conference in Huntsville - US STRATCOM leader Gen. Kevin Chilton echoed that comment in regard to US-Japan efforts to deter North Korean nuclear developments. "Our broader concern has to do with Chinese concern," Chilton said, "and the perception of who [BMD] is aimed against.""

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_094_submarine

"The Type 094 (NATO reporting name: Jin-class; Chinese: 晋级潜&#33351 is a new class of ballistic missile submarine developed by the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy. The first-of-class was constructed at Huludao Shipyard in Huludao, Liaoning Province and launched in July 2004. At least two are confirmed to have been launched. [1]

In late 2006, a commercial satellite photographed what is believed to be the new Jin-class submarine moored in Xiaopingdao Submarine Base. In comparison with the older Type 092-class submarine, it has been elongated from 122m to 133m in order to house the missile tubes and part of the reactor.[4]


JL-1 and JL-2 Missiles.

The Type 094 submarine is capable of carrying 12 of the more modern JL-2s[5] with a range of approximately 14,000 km, and is capable of targeting all of the Western Hemisphere, from close to the Chinese coast. The Type 094 is believed by some western analysts to incorporate a great deal of Russian technology and will replace the Type 092 submarine (NATO reporting name: Xia class) for the People's Liberation Army Navy.

In its 2008 assessment of China's military, the United States Department of Defense estimated that one Type 094 "may soon enter service", and that "up to five" would be in service by 2010.[5] The United States government has expressed concern over these submarines, saying that the Chinese government has not been transparent enough about the program.[6]"

 

[SinoIndusFriendship]

In my view, China is taking a middle-path toward nuclear parity with the U.S. and Russia. China is not engaging in a rapid nuclear-force modernization. However, China is also not sitting still.

Instead, China is slowly creeping up on the Americans and Russians. China has built two new Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs, each carrying 12 Julang-2 SLBMs. Also, China has built more road-mobile ICBMs. This seems to be a fair compromise that the Americans can accept. The U.S. won't complain if China adds approximately 10 to 30 ICBMs a year to her nuclear arsenal.

Type 094 submarine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"The Type 094 (NATO reporting name: Jin-class; Chinese: 晋级潜&#33351 is a new class of ballistic missile submarine developed by the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy. The first-of-class was constructed at Huludao Shipyard in Huludao, Liaoning Province and launched in July 2004. At least two are confirmed to have been launched. [1]

In late 2006, a commercial satellite photographed what is believed to be the new Jin-class submarine moored in Xiaopingdao Submarine Base. In comparison with the older Type 092-class submarine, it has been elongated from 122m to 133m in order to house the missile tubes and part of the reactor.[4]
JL-1 and JL-2 Missiles.

The Type 094 submarine is capable of carrying 12 of the more modern JL-2s[5] with a range of approximately 14,000 km, and is capable of targeting all of the Western Hemisphere, from close to the Chinese coast. The Type 094 is believed by some western analysts to incorporate a great deal of Russian technology and will replace the Type 092 submarine (NATO reporting name: Xia class) for the People's Liberation Army Navy.

In its 2008 assessment of China's military, the United States Department of Defense estimated that one Type 094 "may soon enter service", and that "up to five" would be in service by 2010.[5] The United States government has expressed concern over these submarines, saying that the Chinese government has not been transparent enough about the program.[6]"

Rightly said. Having the sheer destructive power is only one part of the equation. There are a total of 4 aspects:

1) Nuclear bomb

2) Delivery mechanism

3) Monitoring hostile activity & response mechanism

4) Central control

 

[Sino-PakFriendship]

China learn a lesson from Serbia!

Kosovo is Serbia!

But Evil USA, NATO invaded Serbia and occupied Kosovo and let it independence.

Because Serbia has no nuclear bombs!

With sufficient nuclear bombs, Evil USA, NATO, India and Al-Qaeda's hope for Tibet / Xinjiang independence must bankrupt.

 

[no_name]

The Type 094 submarine is capable of carrying 12 of the more modern JL-2s[5] with a range of approximately 14,000 km, and is capable of targeting all of the Western Hemisphere, from close to the Chinese coast. /QUOTE]

I thought JL-2 only has a range of 8000 km. Not even American SLBM has that range (Trident II - 11000-12000 km). Only land based ones.

 

[no_name]

Trident SLBM launch process:

The launch from the submarine occurs below the ocean surface. The missiles are ejected from their tubes by igniting an explosive charge in a separate container which is separated by seventeen titanium alloy pinnacles activated by a double alloy steam system. The energy from the blast is directed to a water tank, which is flash-vaporized to steam. The subsequent pressure spike is strong enough to eject the missile out of the tube and give it enough momentum to reach and clear the surface of the water. The missile is pressurized with nitrous oxide to prevent the intrusion of water into any internal spaces, which could damage the missile or add weight, destabilizing the missile. Should the missile fail to breach the surface of the water, there are several safety mechanisms that can either deactivate the missile before launch or guide the missile through an additional phase of launch. Inertial motion sensors are activated upon launch, and when the sensors detect downward acceleration after being blown out of the water, the first stage engine ignites. The aerospike, a telescoping outward extension that halves aerodynamic drag, is then deployed, and the boost phase begins. When the third stage motor fires, within two minutes of launch, the missile is traveling faster than 20,000 ft/s (6,000 m/s), or 13,600 mph (21,600 km/h).

The missile attains a temporary low altitude orbit only a few minutes after launch. The Guidance System for the missile is an Inertial Guidance System with an additional Star-Sighting system, which is used to correct small positional errors that have accrued during the flight. GPS has been used on some test flights but is assumed not to be available for a real mission.

Once the Star-sighting system has been completed, the missile deploys the multiple independent reentry vehicles as their individual targets come within range. The lateral area coverage of the targets remains classified.

Quite complex technology. I was wondering why all SLBMs has similar shape and look different from land based ICBMs. Now I think it is because it was designed for lower drag in water and stability travelling in denser fluid.

Aerospike seen before the nosecone:

 

[applesauce]

no need for more nuke, just enough to say...kill off 20-40 cities for sure the capabilities of which is already there. so modernization of the weapons and delivery systems is the key. also maintenance is expensive, no need to spend where you don't have to.

 

[Martian2]

The Type 094 submarine is capable of carrying 12 of the more modern JL-2s[5] with a range of approximately 14,000 km, and is capable of targeting all of the Western Hemisphere, from close to the Chinese coast. /QUOTE]

I thought JL-2 only has a range of 8000 km. Not even American SLBM has that range (Trident II - 11000-12000 km). Only land based ones.

Estimated range of 14,000 km for the JL-2 is at the upper range of estimates, but it is still close to the 12,000 km range for the Trident II. The extra 2,000 km may be explained by a slightly bigger JL-2 missile or arming the missile with a smaller warhead to reduce the weight.

A third possible explanation is that, since the JL-2 was built 16 years after the Trident II, the JL-2 may have been designed with improved lightweight (e.g. composite) materials and/or been lavished with a lot more supercomputer time on its design.

A fourth possible explanation is that the JL-2 has only two stages, instead of the three stages for the Trident II. "Such design simplifies the structure of the missile and largely reduces missile's overall weight by reducing one stage." (See newslink below)

I selected Wikipedia as a source because I wanted to quote that two Type 094 submarines have been "confirmed to be launched" and the "United States government has expressed concern over these submarines, saying that the Chinese government has not been transparent enough about the program." Feel free to adjust the JL-2 range downward to "11000-12000 km" to match the Trident II's range.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JL-2

"In late 1980s and 1990s, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering named Wang Zhenhua (王振&#21326 proposed a new theory typically for the JL-2 SLBM, called "(Free) Relaxation into Trajectory" (自由入&#36712.

Based on this theory, JL-2 only needs two stages to achieve its intercontinental status instead of three. Conventionally, any type of ICBMs has three phases to finish its flight: (i) the boost phase, (ii) the mid-course phase, and (iii) the terminal phase. Wang's idea is to combine the first and the second phases into one, the passive-boost phase (助推&#27573. Plus the final atmospheric reentry phase, therefore, in total the JL-2's trajectory only has two phases and two stages.

The first phase is based on the first solid-fueled rocket engine (first stage). The first stage passively launches the missile out of the atmosphere, and accelerates it into a speed in between the first (7.9 km/s) and second (11.2 km/s) escape velocities. When the missile is in this transition state, the first stage booster sheds off, and the missile automatically adapts its "free" trajectory and further reaches its maximium altitude (without a constant velocity); the dominating force here is just the earth's gravity. The second stage engine (liquid-fueled) then starts working.

Normally, SLBM has three stages. Such design simplifies the structure of the missile and largely reduces missile's overall weight by reducing one stage. Additionally, it increases the atmospheric reentry velocity, which leads to more difficult interception, such as, by the NMD."

 

[mivy]

There is only one reason that China doesn't already have nuclear parity with the United States and Russia. After all, China has possessed the technology for W-88 class warheads and Long March rockets/Dong Feng missiles for decades.

Currently, the U.S. is the only restraint to prevent the Imperial Japanese Army from developing and fielding nuclear weapons. Did I say Imperial Japanese Army? I meant Self-Defense Force. Anyway, if China wants nuclear parity with the U.S. and Russia, the U.S. will no longer restrain the Imperial Japanese Army from going nuclear.

So you mean, China should thank US as the defender,preventing Japan from developing Nuclear weapons.

 

[Martian2]

So you mean, China should thank US as the defender,preventing Japan from developing Nuclear weapons.

No. The U.S. is making a realpolitik deal with China. Basically, you (i.e. China) do not manufacture and point thousands of nuclear ICBMs at me (i.e. U.S.). In exchange, I will make sure that the Imperial Japanese Army does not point thousands of nuclear SRBMs (i.e. short-range ballistic missiles) and/or IRBMs (i.e. intermediate-range ballistic missiles) at you.

Would you rather have the U.S. point nukes at you or the Imperial Japanese Army? Choose your poison.

 

[mDumb]

<Let me share with you a conversation I had with an older japanese fellow from Japan. He was the typical gung-ho Japanese who still felt superior to Chinese (there are much less of these types in the younger generation). Even though he doesn't represent the 'average' Japanese, he does give us insight into the 'hard-core right-wing' Japanese.>

This is ******* BS!!!!

Japan was so primitive that it didn't have a written language. **** they didn't have land to begin with. Here some of the things that the Japanese absorbed from the Chinese: Chinese characters, Chinese philosophy, Chinese religions (Buddhism, Confucianism), Chinese rickshaw, Chinese words, Chinese food (noodle, pot sticker), Chinese utensil (chop sticks), Chinese martial arts, Chinese martial art weapons, Chinese rice wine, etc.

Please tell your ******* ignorant old Japanese friend to educate himself well. Tell him that his people stole the land from the Ainus.

<No. The U.S. is making a realpolitik deal with China. Basically, you (i.e. China) do not manufacture and point thousands of nuclear ICBMs at me (i.e. U.S.). In exchange, I will make sure that the Imperial Japanese Army does not point thousands of nuclear SRBMs (i.e. short-range ballistic missiles) and/or IRBMs (i.e. intermediate-range ballistic missiles) at you.>

This also ******* BS!!! The US is more concerned with the Japanese possessing nuclear weapons.

Why?
1. It would embolden them to kick the US military out of Japan
As you know Japan is an occupied country. If you think the Japanese love the the US military presence in Japan you're really ******* stupid.
2. Japanese would never forget for the two atomic bombs that the US military dropped

<no need for more nuke, just enough to say...kill off 20-40 cities for sure the capabilities of which is already there.>

The whole idea of China matching the nuclear warheads with US or Russia is to ensure complete mutual destruction if the US or Russia ever blackmail China again. It is not good enough for China to obliterate 20-40 US or Russian cities while the US or Russia can obliterate hundreds or thousands of Chinese cities.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

<Let me share with you a conversation I had with an older japanese fellow from Japan. He was the typical gung-ho Japanese who still felt superior to Chinese (there are much less of these types in the younger generation). Even though he doesn't represent the 'average' Japanese, he does give us insight into the 'hard-core right-wing' Japanese.>

This is ******* BS!!!!

Japan was so primitive that it didn't have a written language. **** they didn't have land to begin with. Here some of the things that the Japanese absorbed from the Chinese: Chinese characters, Chinese philosophy, Chinese religions (Buddhism, Confucianism), Chinese rickshaw, Chinese words, Chinese food (noodle, pot sticker), Chinese utensil (chop sticks), Chinese martial arts, Chinese martial art weapons, Chinese rice wine, etc.

Please tell your ******* ignorant old Japanese friend to educate himself well. Tell him that his people stole the land from the Ainus.

<No. The U.S. is making a realpolitik deal with China. Basically, you (i.e. China) do not manufacture and point thousands of nuclear ICBMs at me (i.e. U.S.). In exchange, I will make sure that the Imperial Japanese Army does not point thousands of nuclear SRBMs (i.e. short-range ballistic missiles) and/or IRBMs (i.e. intermediate-range ballistic missiles) at you.>

This also ******* BS!!! The US is more concerned with the Japanese possessing nuclear weapons.

Why?
1. It would embolden them to kick the US military out of Japan
As you know Japan is an occupied country. If you think the Japanese love the the US military presence in Japan you're really ******* stupid.
2. Japanese would never forget for the two atomic bombs that the US military dropped

<no need for more nuke, just enough to say...kill off 20-40 cities for sure the capabilities of which is already there.>

The whole idea of China matching the nuclear warheads with US or Russia is to ensure complete mutual destruction if the US or Russia ever blackmail China again. It is not good enough for China to obliterate 20-40 US or Russian cities while the US or Russia can obliterate hundreds or thousands of Chinese cities.

China is not worried about the deterrent. Think about it, even a tiny vassal state like Israel could possess 200 warheads, do you truly believe China has only the number of Israel?

In reality, China has far more than what the western medias have reported. The problem is that if China unveils the actual number of her nuclear arsenal then USA would likely go after China and forces her to sign the treaty of nuclear disarmament.

Nowadays China is considered to be the arch-rival of USA and the Americans won't just sit there and letting China to have the free pass.

USA and Russia have just disarmed their old tech nukes from Cold War, whereas the modern nuclear arsenal of China has just been recently upgraded with much more advanced miniaturized warheads. This isn't worthy for China to abandon her sophisticated warheads in exchange with those Cold War relics.

So don't worry, China has enough warheads to wipe out the Earth more than once.